2024-2025 La Nina

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The Northwest flow is basically what saved January in MI from being the cold, frozen disaster it was just to our west. We were able to squeeze out enough snowfalls for a white month...while they had temps in the -10s and -20s with bare ground in MN and WI. 

 

Looks like Minneapolis salvaged something with this 9.5" snowstorm they just had, maybe they can get another? March-April are prime snowfall months for them.

 

[michsnowfreak]

56 minutes ago, roardog said:

This is where luck comes in though. I get that the chance of phasing decreases with the strong jet but areas to your south had decent snow this winter. A little bit of a SE ridge or just any nuance in January could have brought that snow to NYC instead of Philadelphia/DC. 

You said it best, this was a pattern we have not seen in a long time. And lets not forget that Pensacola and New Orleans technically had a larger 24-hour snowfall than many of us. Some weather weenies are strictly give me snow and thats it, while others are all about all-things winter; cold, snowfall, snowcover, storms etc. But I think we all can agree that regardless of what we like, we have to include all factors to gauge the severity of a winter. Just like that winter severity index they have. I said it the other day but its worth repeating, I saw 10"+ more snowfall in winters like 2016-17, 2019-20 that were 5-6F warmer than 2024-25.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

if we get an el nino do you think it would be like one of the el ninos from the 80s (not 82-83 of course since that was a mega el nino, but maybe more like 86-87 shifted somewhat northward?)

That el nino that developed in 86 was a unicorn. That was a 2-year strong el nino, which peaked in the summer of 87. Of course, after the el nino ended, there was a sharp correction to one of the strongest la ninas on record in 88-89.

I think if we get an el nino in 25-26, it will be much weaker, like 06-07.

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

this almost feels like a 2013-14/2014-15 couplet (obviously with much less snow than what 2013-14 had this season.)

If this is the case, I think this year is closer to 12-13 than to 13-14. 12-13, while warmer than this winter, had similar snowfall to this year, in a ENSO neutral, deep -PDO year, which rose throughout the winter.

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Just goes to show the different patterns in different regions. La Ninas arent necessarily a bad thing here tho, and those early 1930s winters were very mild. On one of my snow sheets I jotted down some highlights of this crappy time in our snow climo. Some of the highlights (or should I say lowlights):

1931-32: still stands as 2nd warmest winter on record
1932-33: After Jan ’32 saw just 0.9” snow, Jan ’33 sets the all time low with 0.4”
1936-37: still stands as least snowy winter (12.9”) on record
1937-38: largest storm just 2.4”; the 5th consecutive winter without a 5”+ storm
1941-42: mild winter; max snow depth 3”; only 1 winter of last 6 has exceeded 4” depth!
1943-44: mild winter nonexistent til Feb, but Feb sees the decades ONLY 6”+ storm!
1945-46: 2nd “Morch” in a row; no measurable snow after Feb 27, earliest on record
1948-49: 13.7” total snow, only 17 days with snow on ground, max depth 4”
1952-53: 16.6” total snow; Max depth of entire winter 2”, lowest on record
1957-58: 18.0” total snow, biggest storm just 2.1”, the smallest “biggest of season” on record
1960-61: cold but only 18.0” of snow; everything hit the east coast
1965-66: warm wet start then cold & very dry; only 15.4” snow
1968-69: 17.1” snow, the 7th sub-20” winter in 33 years! The last time Detroit didn’t hit 20”+

Snowiest winter of 1930s: 66.5” in 1929-30
Least snowy winter of 1930s: 12.9” in 1936-37
Warmest winter of 1930s: 1931-32 (stands as 2nd warmest)
Coldest winter of 1930s: 1935-36 (stands as 9th coldest)

Snowiest winter of 1940s: 44.4” in 1942-43 (snowiest winter of decade is our current avg)
Least snowy winter of 1940s: 13.7” in 1948-49
Warmest winter of 1940s: 1948-49 (stands as 17th warmest)
Coldest winter of 1940s: 1944-45 (stands as 21st coldest)

Snowiest winter of 1950s: 58.6” in 1951-52
Least snowy winter of 1950s: 16.6” in 1952-53
Warmest winter of 1950s: 1952-53 (stands as 15th warmest)
Coldest winter of 1950s: 1958-59 (stands as 18th coldest)

Snowiest winter of 1960s: 50.6” in 1966-67
Least snowy winter of 1960s: 15.4” in 1965-66
Warmest winter of 1960s: 1965-66 (stands as 45th warmest)
Coldest winter of 1960s: 1962-63 (stands as 5th coldest)

Thanks, two things I see right away both our locations have in common:

1931-32 was a really really bad F grade winter for both of us.

1966-67 was a great A grade winter for both of us.  I wish I had been alive to see that whole year, I love hot and dry followed by cold and snowy and the summer of 1966 and winter of 1966-67 were exactly that.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That el nino that developed in 86 was a unicorn. That was a 2-year strong el nino, which peaked in the summer of 87. Of course, after the el nino ended, there was a sharp correction to one of the strongest la ninas on record in 88-89.

I think if we get an el nino in 25-26, it will be much weaker, like 06-07.

If this is the case, I think this year is closer to 12-13 than to 13-14. 12-13, while warmer than this winter, had similar snowfall to this year, in a ENSO neutral, deep -PDO year, which rose throughout the winter.

1988-89 had a suppressive pattern similar to this winter (remember the February 1989 bust that dumped all the snow in an area from Norfolk to Atlantic City and just missed us.)

 

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like Minneapolis salvaged something with this 9.5" snowstorm they just had, maybe they can get another? March-April are prime snowfall months for them.

 

Yes. They got slammed right in a weenie band. Parts of the UP really got slammed, and I always feel a bit like "hey you get enough LES" when the synoptic snow hits northern MI instead of southern MI. 

As for Minneapolis, they certainly can get clocked in March/April (April 2018 was record smashing). But in mid-winter when its so cold but they have little or no natural snowcover, its a bit of a downer for winter rec. The great thing about this winter and the times we live in, is that ski resorts can make as much snow as they want. It was a fantastic winter for skiiers and ice fishermen throughout the entire states of MN, WI, and MI. Even on our ski hills in southeast MI they are still open and skiing. 

[michsnowfreak]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, two things I see right away both our locations have in common:

1931-32 was a really really bad F grade winter for both of us.

1966-67 was a great A grade winter for both of us.  I wish I had been alive to see that whole year, I love hot and dry followed by cold and snowy and the summer of 1966 and winter of 1966-67 were exactly that.

The winter of 1931-32 was unlike anything Ive seen. It was very mild and very rainy. January had multiple reports in both newspapers and weather journals alike of grass growing and dandelions blooming. The first day where Detroit saw a snow depth of 1"+ was Feb 4th, simply unheard of. March tried to save face with a big cold snap early month then a big winter storm March 21/22 (rain, sleet, thunder, turned to 5" of snow) but too little too late. The November 1931-January 1932 timeframe stands as by far the warmest Nov-Jan on record, a solid 2F warmer than 2nd place.

 

1966-67 was a great winter. It kicked off with a November snowstorm on Nov 2nd and featured a late season snow on Apr 24. It had excellent longevity. The 86 days with 1"+ snowcover ranks 5th (#1 is 96 days in 2013-14). Believe it or not, there were actually record to near record warm spells (Dec 6-9 & Jan 22-25) but they each acted to fuel a winter storm, so the snowcover zapping torches were immediately replaced with fresh snow. The infamous Chicago blizzard of '67, fueled after that stretch of 60F+ weather, Jan 26th slammed much of MI with record snow too. But DTW literally sat on the line of ice/snow. They received 4" of snow/sleet plus ice. Ann Arbor and Detroits northern burbs received 12-18" of snow. So had the storm track shifted a mere 10 miles or so, the season total of 50.6" would have had another 10" added to it.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This +NOI is actually a staple of La Nina, similar to how there was a -NOI last Winter for Strong El Nino. 

Almost exact opposites over the Pacific and N America.. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The winter of 1931-32 was unlike anything Ive seen. It was very mild and very rainy. January had multiple reports in both newspapers and weather journals alike of grass growing and dandelions blooming. The first day where Detroit saw a snow depth of 1"+ was Feb 4th, simply unheard of. March tried to save face with a big cold snap early month then a big winter storm March 21/22 (rain, sleet, thunder, turned to 5" of snow) but too little too late. The November 1931-January 1932 timeframe stands as by far the warmest Nov-Jan on record, a solid 2F warmer than 2nd place.

 

1966-67 was a great winter. It kicked off with a November snowstorm on Nov 2nd and featured a late season snow on Apr 24. It had excellent longevity. The 86 days with 1"+ snowcover ranks 5th (#1 is 96 days in 2013-14). Believe it or not, there were actually record to near record warm spells (Dec 6-9 & Jan 22-25) but they each acted to fuel a winter storm, so the snowcover zapping torches were immediately replaced with fresh snow. The infamous Chicago blizzard of '67, fueled after that stretch of 60F+ weather, Jan 26th slammed much of MI with record snow too. But DTW literally sat on the line of ice/snow. They received 4" of snow/sleet plus ice. Ann Arbor and Detroits northern burbs received 12-18" of snow. So had the storm track shifted a mere 10 miles or so, the season total of 50.6" would have had another 10" added to it.  

wow 1931-32 also sounds like 1997-98 and 2001-02 here.  1997-98 in particular had only 0.5 inch of snow (HALF AN INCH) through the vernal equinox and then we got a too little too late surprise wet snowstorm that dropped 5 inches after spring had already started that melted in 2 hours lol

1966-67 was similar here, it had one of our all time best Christmas Eve snowstorms with around 8 inches and then a big thaw in January but a major return to winter for February and March with over 2 feet of snow in each of those months including our latest single digit temperature on record near the first day of astronomical spring (and below 0 on Long Island).

 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yes. They got slammed right in a weenie band. Parts of the UP really got slammed, and I always feel a bit like "hey you get enough LES" when the synoptic snow hits northern MI instead of southern MI. 

As for Minneapolis, they certainly can get clocked in March/April (April 2018 was record smashing). But in mid-winter when its so cold but they have little or no natural snowcover, its a bit of a downer for winter rec. The great thing about this winter and the times we live in, is that ski resorts can make as much snow as they want. It was a fantastic winter for skiiers and ice fishermen throughout the entire states of MN, WI, and MI. Even on our ski hills in southeast MI they are still open and skiing. 

2017-2018 was a wild but fun snow season.  We had the cold blizzard in the first week of January on the anniversary of January 1996 centered around 2 weeks of very cold weather and a mild February (but it still snowed for Valentines Day) and then 4 snow storms in March and then the one in April that snowed out the Yankees home opener.  I love those April snowstorms, because you enjoy them more knowing they are the last one for the season.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow 1931-32 also sounds like 1997-98 and 2001-02 here.  1997-98 in particular had only 0.5 inch of snow (HALF AN INCH) through the vernal equinox and then we got a too little too late surprise wet snowstorm that dropped 5 inches after spring had already started that melted in 2 hours lol

March 1998 shows we can go from one extreme to the other in very short order. Just a week later, we were in an early heat wave, and we made a run at 90 on 3/31.

01-02 is one that never really had a winter. Save for the snowstorm on 1/19, that was a torch from late October until the heat wave in mid-April.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The Midwest did get record cold around it.. It hit -32F in Valentine, Nebraska.  The NAO has been positive in the mean for this Winter.. If you calculated the cases there was a -300dm trough at 45-50N/35W, there would be above average temperatures on the East coast south of Boston.  Sometimes the closer pattern prevails. 

The overall size of the troughs has been shrinking. So the record cold in spots like Nebraska had smaller geographic footprint than in the past. These strong -EPO +PNA and -AO patterns in the past had much more extensive cold and larger troughs. If we just isolate those features, then this was our warmest winter of the group which included 02-03, 85-86, 76-77, and 62-63. So those were much colder teleconnections in the past when the 500 mb ridges weren’t crowding out the troughs. 
 

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

March 1998 shows we can go from one extreme to the other in very short order. Just a week later, we were in an early heat wave, and we made a run at 90 on 3/31.

01-02 is one that never really had a winter. Save for the snowstorm on 1/19, that was a torch from late October until the heat wave in mid-April.

I loved that heatwave in April 2002, some of the bluest skies I have ever seen as well as the summer that followed.  And then our last beginning to end snowy winter in 2002-03.

March 1998 was extreme like March 1990 was, but in the reverse direction, we went from mid to upper 80s in the middle of March to a small snow event (up to 1") in early April 1990.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The overall size of the troughs has been shrinking. So the record cold in spots like Nebraska had smaller geographic footprint than in the past. These strong -EPO +PNA and -AO patterns in the past had much more extensive cold and larger troughs. If we just isolate those features, then this was our warmest winter of the group which included 02-03, 85-86, 76-77, and 62-63. So those were much colder teleconnections in the past when the 500 mb ridges weren’t crowding out the troughs. 
 

 

this winter actually had some things in common with both 1962-63 and 1967-68, namely less than 20 inches of snow in winters with below 32 degree average temperature.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The overall size of the troughs has been shrinking. So the record cold in spots like Nebraska had smaller geographic footprint than in the past. These strong -EPO +PNA and -AO patterns in the past had much more extensive cold and larger troughs. If we just isolate those features, then this was our warmest winter of the group which included 02-03, 85-86, 76-77, and 62-63. So those were much colder teleconnections in the past when the 500 mb ridges weren’t crowding out the troughs. 

Yeah, but the NAO difference is big. Look at Europe. DJF came in +2.29 total for NAO, so +0.76/month. 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, but the NAO difference is big. Look at Europe. DJF came in +2.29 total for NAO, so +0.76/month. 

We have been seeing the -AO decouple from the -NAO. We used to get both falling in tandem more often. Now we get -AO and +NAOs more often. 

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 JB is saying that a stratwarm caused widespread US colder than average 3/20-4/14 is still possible. He’s saying Europe being wet has already tipped off this idea 3 times and he thinks it will happen again.

 But I agree with @snowman19that he usually calls for colder than normal around this period. Also, the Euro Weeklies so far still have not shown any BN signal in the E 2/3 of the US for any upcoming week with AN temps dominating. In addition, the MJO is forecasted to be in the maritime continent on 3/20.

 But the 60N 10 mb wind reversal is still looking stout with a rapid drop of 50 m/s over just a 7 day period from Mar 5th’s +30 to ~-20 m/s Mar 12. This is similar to the record earliest FW during about the same period in 2016, but that didn’t result in any widespread long lasting E US BN period in late Mar-Apr:

 

JB has made himself irrelevant to everyone except the hard core east coast weenies. He’s a clown. No one in their right mind takes him seriously anymore and he did it to himself the last 15 years with the non stop snow and cold wishcasting….to the point of being completely delusional. He’s all about likes, views, clout, follows, retweets and subscription money. Literally every March, it’s the same BS every year, over and over again. “March Madness”, “delayed/faux/fake spring”, “winter isn’t over”, “analogs are 1888, 1958, 1993, 2014, 2015, 2018”, “SSWEs are coming”, “deep winter, cold and snow is coming back in the east from 3/20-4/15”, etc., any excuse to keep the weenies forking him over the dough for one last month. Wxbell makes all their snow/cold weenie money from November through March

[Stormchaserchuck1]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have been seeing the -AO decouple from the -NAO. We used to get both falling in tandem more often. Now we get -AO and +NAOs more often. 

Well none of your analogs had more positive than a near 0 Winter NAO. The average NAO for your analogs was -0.5/month. I'm just saying a -AO block near the north pole was so far north, that a strong low pressure formed under it in the N. Atlantic, and "downstream" from this 45-50N trough, was a SE ridge, sending that mysterious -5 AO storm north.. that atlantic trough though was the closer pattern to us than the AO, and the relative magnitude was actually slightly higher (average volatility/latitude difference).

I understand that it is hooking up with SE ridge more often now, some of that is because of a stuck -PNA/+EPO pattern, which has been correlating with the NAO at 0.40 since 2019, and 0.30 since 2013.  Overall, it's hard to argue against total warming, but the reason for specific events is more pattern based. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The Midwest did get record cold around it.. It hit -32F in Valentine, Nebraska.  The NAO has been positive in the mean for this Winter.. If you calculated the cases there was a -300dm trough at 45-50N/35W, there would be above average temperatures on the East coast south of Boston.  Sometimes the closer pattern prevails. 

I would just drop it...its like trying to convince a MAGA to vote democrat.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would just drop it...its like trying to convince a MAGA to vote democrat.

Glad to see my Summer N. Atlantic SST indicator work out for the NAO, despite it being a cold Winter.  I was afraid that would happen, saying that -epo/+pna has been correlating with +NAO, and there were 9 troughs over Greenland earlier in the year for the first time 2020-2023... sign of maybe a colder time.. but I couldn't pull the trigger in my Winter forecast, just going with the boring indicators and default +NAO temp correlation. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The overall size of the troughs has been shrinking. So the record cold in spots like Nebraska had smaller geographic footprint than in the past. These strong -EPO +PNA and -AO patterns in the past had much more extensive cold and larger troughs. If we just isolate those features, then this was our warmest winter of the group which included 02-03, 85-86, 76-77, and 62-63. So those were much colder teleconnections in the past when the 500 mb ridges weren’t crowding out the troughs. 
 

 

Well those winters were nice while they lasted. Maybe we'll get some warm/snowy winters before everything goes in the toilet by the 2030s. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Glad to see my Summer N. Atlantic SST indicator work out for the NAO, despite it being a cold Winter.  I was afraid that would happen, saying that -epo/+pna has been correlating with +NAO, and there were 9 troughs over Greenland earlier in the year for the first time 2020-2023... sign of maybe a colder time.. but I couldn't pull the trigger in my Winter forecast, just going with the boring indicators and default +NAO temp correlation. 

Yea, we were both lock-step with respect to the NAO...I remember I calculed a mean from my polar analogs and your calculation ended up within like .02 of it lol

I may pull the trigger next year.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nice -NAO block here correlating with SE ridge

I should get into the 70s on this day. The Pacific has gained significant as a direct factor recently vs the AO.. this actually started back in 13-14 and 14-15 when the strong +NAO of those Winters actually extended a trough down the east coast.. still the last coldest Winter to this day (13-14) was a +3.48 DJFM NAO (/4), positive every month. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well none of your analogs had more positive than a near 0 Winter NAO. The average NAO for your analogs was -0.5/month. I'm just saying a -AO block near the north pole was so far north, that a strong low pressure formed under it in the N. Atlantic, and "downstream" from this 45-50N trough, was a SE ridge, sending that mysterious -5 AO storm north.. that atlantic trough though was the closer pattern to us than the AO, and the relative magnitude was actually slightly higher (average volatility/latitude difference).

I understand that it is hooking up with SE ridge more often now, some of that is because of a stuck -PNA/+EPO pattern, which has been correlating with the NAO at 0.40 since 2019, and 0.30 since 2013.  Overall, it's hard to argue against total warming, but the reason for specific events is more pattern based. 

I think the more +NAO could be a function of the increased KB blocking low sea ice feedback. We used to get a much stronger vortex in Europe when there was such strong blocking across the Arctic in the old days. Instead the KB block build down into Europe preventing the usual cold trough development. So this is also contributing to the Southeast Ridge which has been increasing over the years. But even past instances of a very deep vortex centered  south of Greenland like this year didn’t have as strong of a Southeast Ridge. The vortex out there this month was among the strongest that was observed in the February when compared to the other strong years in the composite. But the Arctic blocking was more intense this February than in the composite. 
 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the more +NAO could be a function of the increased KB blocking low sea ice feedback. We used to get a much stronger vortex in Europe when there was such strong blocking across the Arctic in the old days. Instead the KB block build down into Europe preventing the usual cold trough development. So this is also contributing to the Southeast Ridge which has been increasing over the years. But even past instances of a very deep vortex centered  south of Greenland like this year didn’t have as strong of a Southeast Ridge. The vortex out there this month was among the strongest that was observed in the February when compared to the other strong years in the composite. But the Arctic blocking was more intense this February than in the composite. 

That's fair.. here are the 20 most recent analogs I came up with (max for composite)

The reason there is so strong of a Pacific -PNA on the hand picked Atlantic analogs, is they are both part of a AAM pattern - neg Atlantic/pos Pacific is -AAM, and visa-versa. The Pacific part makes there be a cold signal in the Midwest, but you can see a very slight SE ridge happening, and when our average temps are low 40s, that near neutral anomaly is a good part of a storm track up to SE Canada (during the -5 AO). 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's fair.. here are the 20 most recent analogs I came up with (max for composite)

The reason there is so strong of a Pacific -PNA on the hand picked Atlantic analogs, is they are both part of a AAM pattern - neg Atlantic/pos Pacific is -AAM, and visa-versa. The Pacific part makes there be a cold signal in the Midwest, but you can see a very slight SE ridge happening, and when our average temps are low 40s, that near neutral anomaly is a good part of a storm track up to SE Canada (during the -5 AO). 

Back in the 50s to early 70s we seldom had a Southeast Ridge when there was a strong -PNA -AO pattern. So the Southeast Ridge becoming such a big player in our sensible weather is a more recent phenomenon. My guess is that it’s a function of the much warmer global SST and land temps along with the warming at 500mb. 
 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Back in the 50s to early 70s we seldom had a Southeast Ridge when there was a strong -PNA -AO pattern. So the Southeast Ridge becoming such a big player in our sensible weather is a more recent phenomenon. My guess is that it’s a function of the much warmer global SST and land temps along with the warming at 500mb. 

Yeah, but those maps are based on 1991-2020 averages. So if you're using only + analogs and going back way before, it's going to skew your mean colder. I'm just talking about the pattern, and what it typically produces, although I think you may be saying the warming trend is relevant too. 

I don't think it's a big part to do with Atlantic SSTs, although this AMO correlation is interesting:

-AMO ibb.co/bR3LvKW

+AMO ibb.co/KctZCPm

-AMO ibb.co/wKX4YCC

+AMO ibb.co/sFSwm0j

 

Edit: I see you're talking about AO/PNA.  The orientation of the PNA makes a big difference. No Alaska trough and a Pacific ridge extending north is a colder pattern. A flatter 45N ridge is a warmer pattern. 1960s didn't have lot of +EPO's, but yeah the SE ridge does seem stronger now. 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, but those maps are based on 1991-2020 averages. So if you're using only + analogs and going back way before, it's going to skew your mean colder. I'm just talking about the pattern, and what it typically produces, although I think you may be saying the warming trend is relevant too. 

That’s the point. Even when we had strong -PNA -AOs in recent years, the actual 500 mb heights weren’t as low near the Pacific NW as there were in the 1950s to 1970s. So deeper troughs digging into the West during that colder era didn’t pump the Southeast Ridge. During the 2020s all it takes are relatively weak lows coming into the West and we get a big 500mb ridge amplification in the East. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s the point. Even when we had strong -PNA -AOs in recent years, the actual 500 mb heights weren’t as low near the Pacific NW as there were in the 1950s to 1970s. So deeper troughs digging into the West during that colder era didn’t pump the Southeast Ridge. During the 2020s all it takes are relatively weak lows coming into the West and we get a big 500mb ridge amplification in the East. 

Before this year, we had 44/52 Winter NAO months (DJFM) positive since Dec 2011.  16/16 of NAO >1.11 in a month during that time were all positive!  No NAO less than -1.11 since Dec 2011, including this year. 

Could be the reason.. I don't see why warmer Atlantic SSTs in general would favor +NAO.  I have seen studies where there's a big sea-level height difference in the Atlantic 2011-2022. 

With Winter 24-25, it's now 46/55 months +NAO. That's your answer. 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow 1931-32 also sounds like 1997-98 and 2001-02 here.  1997-98 in particular had only 0.5 inch of snow (HALF AN INCH) through the vernal equinox and then we got a too little too late surprise wet snowstorm that dropped 5 inches after spring had already started that melted in 2 hours lol

1966-67 was similar here, it had one of our all time best Christmas Eve snowstorms with around 8 inches and then a big thaw in January but a major return to winter for February and March with over 2 feet of snow in each of those months including our latest single digit temperature on record near the first day of astronomical spring (and below 0 on Long Island).

 

Believe it or not I actually remember that about 1997-98 in NYC, that they got a 5" storm in late March. If im not mistaken it was a surprise as well. 1997-98 and 2001-02 were not good winters here but they had some fun times, esp 2001-02 had a few fun storms. The least snowy winter Ive lived thru was actually last winter, 2023-24, when I saw 21.4". DTW saw 23.5", technically 0.1" more than they saw in 1997-98, but in 97-98 I measured 27.2", so I go with 2023-24 as my least snowy winter (Im 41). Its VERY hard to go an entire snow season with under 20" here, which makes those aforementioned sub-20" winters 1930s-60s so remarkable. Again, the warmth was the problem in those winters of the 1930s-50s, but in the 1960s it was suppression. I would absolutely LOVE a CC tweaked version of 1960s winters!