2024-2025 La Nina

[LakePaste25]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

The winter pattern this year wasn’t a surprise to me since I was discussing the +PNA mismatch potential last October in this thread. At least that portion of what happened related to the October forcing continuing into winter followed the past occurrences which I already outlined numerous times earlier in this thread. But the Pacific Jet did not relax as in earlier years with +PNA La Ninas from December into January. This was my reference last October to other factors not lining up the same way so the outcomes could be different this year.

You seem to be agreeing with what I have said numerous times in regard to departures. This winter for many around the northeast was only average temperature wise. Since the small -1 departures were only average based on earlier climo from 1981-2010. This is why I use the actual temperatures and not the departures. As the bar for colder departures naturally gets lower as the means keep rising for each 10 year update.

This winter was the warmest on record for my area compared to similar -EPO +PNA -AO patterns which have occurred in the past. So the magnitude and duration of the cold was lesser than past instances which had these 500mb patterns. As this was one of the warmest winters on record across the Northern Hemisphere. This along with the strength of the Pacific Jet and other teleconnections prevented a cold and snowy outcome like we saw in the Northeast in 13-14. It’s why I didn’t buy the analogs mentioning a 13-14 repeat that were being posted on twitter. It’s also not controversial to recognize that Arctic outbreaks cover less territory in a rapidly warming world. And the places that do get the coldest aren’t as widespread as they used to be in a colder world.

So when the U.S. was having its Arctic outbreaks, the geographic footprint was greatly reduced compared to the past. The cold tended to focus more in smaller regions and not pushing into the Northeast. The cold concentrated in pockets focused to our south and west like we saw with the January 2019, and February 2021. This is why top 10 and 20 warmest months greatly outnumber top 10 and 20 coldest. 

You say that this wasn’t a cutter pattern, yet we had one of the most intense February cutters on record several weeks ago with high winds across the Northeast and heavy rains. The storm track was so warm that it was the first time in the Northeast with a -5 -AO and +500 meter Greenland block. As the past instances saw cold suppressed tracks or historic NYC blizzards instead. 

You obviously didn’t read my earlier posts about the long term snowfall history and changes which have been occurring over the last 60 years. So you seem to be editorializing on some talking point that you read from someone else. Obviously, lake effect snow has been doing great as I have pointed out with the storm track patterns and record Great Lakes warmth leading to delayed freeze-ups. 

The reason that NYC and surrounding areas had well below normal snowfall was due to the fact that the storm tracks continued to be warmer than average like we have seen for much of the last 7 winters. This is why I pointed out that the actual winter average temperature was significantly cooler than on the days that the precipitation fell. So it was too warm on the days that the precipitation fell for much snow. Go back and read my last few posts in this thread outlining the importance of the actual temperatures on the days that the precipitation falls rather than what the winter average temperature was.

 

 

The lake effect snow here and the record warm lakes earlier in the season is the only reason we did well here. Most of the clippers went north of here, which is fairly unusual in this type of +PNA/-EPO pattern. While that was cold enough for snow here, it did not allow much redevelopment east of the mountains, so the precip of these light to moderate clippers mostly fell apart by the time they reached the coastal plain. The further north track can probably be attributed to the stronger pacific jet as mentioned. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

The winter pattern this year wasn’t a surprise to me since I was discussing the +PNA mismatch potential last October in this thread. At least that portion of what happened related to the October forcing continuing into winter followed the past occurrences which I already outlined numerous times earlier in this thread. But the Pacific Jet did not relax as in earlier years with +PNA La Ninas from December into January. This was my reference last October to other factors not lining up the same way so the outcomes could be different this year.

You seem to be agreeing with what I have said numerous times in regard to departures. This winter for many around the northeast was only average temperature wise. Since the small -1 departures were only average based on earlier climo from 1981-2010. This is why I use the actual temperatures and not the departures. As the bar for colder departures naturally gets lower as the means keep rising for each 10 year update.

This winter was the warmest on record for my area compared to similar -EPO +PNA -AO patterns which have occurred in the past. So the magnitude and duration of the cold was lesser than past instances which had these 500mb patterns. As this was one of the warmest winters on record across the Northern Hemisphere. This along with the strength of the Pacific Jet and other teleconnections prevented a cold and snowy outcome like we saw in the Northeast in 13-14. It’s why I didn’t buy the analogs mentioning a 13-14 repeat that were being posted on twitter. It’s also not controversial to recognize that Arctic outbreaks cover less territory in a rapidly warming world. And the places that do get the coldest aren’t as widespread as they used to be in a colder world.

So when the U.S. was having its Arctic outbreaks, the geographic footprint was greatly reduced compared to the past. The cold tended to focus more in smaller regions and not pushing into the Northeast. The cold concentrated in pockets focused to our south and west like we saw with the January 2019, and February 2021. This is why top 10 and 20 warmest months greatly outnumber top 10 and 20 coldest. 

You say that this wasn’t a cutter pattern, yet we had one of the most intense February cutters on record several weeks ago with high winds across the Northeast and heavy rains. The storm track was so warm that it was the first time in the Northeast with a -5 -AO and +500 meter Greenland block. As the past instances saw cold suppressed tracks or historic NYC blizzards instead. 

You obviously didn’t read my earlier posts about the long term snowfall history and changes which have been occurring over the last 60 years. So you seem to be editorializing on some talking point that you read from someone else. Obviously, lake effect snow has been doing great as I have pointed out with the storm track patterns and record Great Lakes warmth leading to delayed freeze-ups. 

The reason that NYC and surrounding areas had well below normal snowfall was due to the fact that the storm tracks continued to be warmer than average like we have seen for much of the last 7 winters. This is why I pointed out that the actual winter average temperature was significantly cooler than on the days that the precipitation fell. So it was too warm on the days that the precipitation fell for much snow. Go back and read my last few posts in this thread outlining the importance of the actual temperatures on the days that the precipitation falls rather than what the winter average temperature was.

 

 

Chris, I remember your research quite well and referenced it in my own work.....you keep saying that you expected the steep seasonal positive PNA that ultimately materialized, but my issue with that is that none of those seasons you referenced had a large +PNA in the DM seasonal mean. You don't seem to acknowledge the fact that this was not a one or two month deviation from the MC forcing like the examples that you referenced....but this was a complete flip that has lasted just about the whole season. I feel like its a little disingenous to claim victory based off the fact that you expected a deviation....this wasn't a +PNA interlude....it was a stronly +PNA season the likes of which we have not seen since the super el Nino of 2015. This seems more like a larger scale transition to me, as opposed to an intraseasonal variation. 

2020-2021 DM PNA: +.12

2021-2022 DM PNA: -.19

2010-2011 DM PNA: -.35

2017-2018 DM PNA: -.16

2024-2025 DJ PNA: +1.38 and February was quite positive. 

 

 

I know as far as I am concerned, I expected a one or two month devation during a season that would either average negative or near neutral....Jan 2022 was my preferred character of deviation, but if I'm being honest with myself, that is not what this was. I also did not expected a colder than average season (yes, 1991-2020) and if I am not mistaken, you were not either, but apoloigies in advance if your were and I am misinterpreting.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 2/27/2025 at 11:14 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tell me we aren't in a state of Pacific multidecadal flux without telling me. February 2000, which was one of my primary analog seasons, and the 2000-2001 La nina (Weak Modoki, like this year) have something in common....they represented the transition from a -PDO period to positive. Difference is that was temporary, given the that the flip to multidecadal cold phase had just taken place in the late 90s (after mega 1997 el Nino). This is near the end of the multidecadal cold phase...see late 1970s.

 

On 2/27/2025 at 11:24 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

raindance metioned that when the PDO is inconflict with region 1.2 (negative PDO/warmer 1.2 given west-based, Modoki Nina), which was also the case in 2000-2001, the PDO is highly likely to continue to reverse throughout the following year, which it did back then. This year, we also have that conflict in that the PDO is negative and La Nina is west-based with warmer values in region 1.2.

+PDO incoming-

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Maybe I am wrong on this and we revert back to a sustained Pacific cold phase, but even if this is a head fake, I think we are nearing the end. We will see....I think we will get the answer to some of these debates I have been having with Chris conerning over the next few years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Chris, I remember your research quite well and referenced it in my own work.....you keep saying that you expected the steep seasonal positive PNA that ultimately materialized, but my issue with that is that none of those seasons you referenced had a large +PNA in the DM seasonal mean. You don't seem to acknowledge the fact that this was not a one or two month deviation from the MC forcing like the examples that you referenced....but this was a complete flip that has lasted just about the whole season. I feel like its a little disingenous to claim victory based off the fact that you expected a deviation....this wasn't a +PNA interlude....it was a stronly +PNA season the likes of which we have not seen since the super el Nino of 2015. This seems more like a larger scale transition to me, as opposed to an intraseasonal variation. 

2020-2021 DM PNA: +.12

2021-2022 DM PNA: -.19

2010-2011 DM PNA: -.35

2017-2018 DM PNA: -.16

2024-2025 DJ PNA: +1.38 and February was quite positive. 

 

 

I know as far as I am concerned, I expected a one or two month devation during a season that would either average negative or near neutral....Jan 2022 was my preferred character of deviation, but if I'm being honest with myself, that is not what this was. I also did not expected a colder than average season (yes, 1991-2020) and if I am not mistaken, you were not either, but apoloigies in advance if your were and I am misinterpreting.

 

 

If you guys recall, the 2023-2024 winter (last season) had a lot of similaraities to the 1972-1973 strong el Nino (during the previous secondary PAC cold phase peak) in the sense that it was competing with the MC forcing.....though obviously it was much warmer given CC.

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Chris, I remember your research quite well and referenced it in my own work.....you keep saying that you expected the steep seasonal positive PNA that ultimately materialized, but my issue with that is that none of those seasons you referenced had a large +PNA in the DM seasonal mean. You don't seem to acknowledge the fact that this was not a one or two month deviation from the MC forcing like the examples that you referenced....but this was a complete flip that has lasted just about the whole season. I feel like its a little disingenous to claim victory based off the fact that you expected a deviation....this wasn't a +PNA interlude....it was a stronly +PNA season the likes of which we have not seen since the super el Nino of 2015. This seems more like a larger scale transition to me, as opposed to an intraseasonal variation. 

2020-2021 DM PNA: +.12

2021-2022 DM PNA: -.19

2010-2011 DM PNA: -.35

2017-2018 DM PNA: -.16

2024-2025 DJ PNA: +1.38 and February was quite positive. 

 

 

I know as far as I am concerned, I expected a one or two month devation during a season that would either average negative or near neutral....Jan 2022 was my preferred character of deviation, but if I'm being honest with myself, that is not what this was. I also did not expected a colder than average season (yes, 1991-2020) and if I am not mistaken, you were not either, but apoloigies in advance if your were and I am misinterpreting.

 

 

I use the 500 mb charts for the teleconnections. We can see the +PNA was from December into January like the past analogs that I mentioned. The 500 mb PNA was solidly negative in February with the deep trough near the Pacific Northwest and Southeast Ridge. Chuck pointed this out earlier the thread.

But the much faster Pacific Jet rendered all those teleconnections moot in regard to the snowfall especially closer to my area. So NYC got a mild Pacific zonal flow pattern with a winter average temperature of 41.5° on the days that .25 or more of precipitation fell. We were effectively too warm on the storm days for much snowfall with only 12.9” on the season.

 It lead to the paradox of the Euro seasonal having a correct snowfall forecast around my area even though it had a warmer forecast than the 34.8° average. So a continuation of the warmer storm tracks and lower snowfall which has dominated since 18-19.

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I use the 500 mb charts for the teleconnections. We can see the +PNA was from December into January like the past analogs that I mentioned. The 500 mb PNA was solidly negative in February with the deep trough near the Pacific Northwest. Chuck pointed this out earlier the thread. But the much faster Pacific Jet rendered all those teleconnections moot in regard to the snowfall especially closer to my area. So NYC got a mild Pacific zonal flow pattern with a winter average temperature of 41.5° on the days that .25 or more of precipitation fell. We were effectively were too warm on the storm days for much snowfall with only 12.9” on the season.  It lead to the paradox of the Euro seasonal having a correct snowfall forecast around my area even though it had a warmer forecast than the 34.8° average. So a continuation of the warmer storm tracks and lower snowfall which has dominated since 18-19.

 

 

 

 

That is the result I got with respect to my forecast, too....I was too warm, but largely got the snowfall right.

I see what you are saying concerning the actual pattern, but at the end of the day, I think its important to incoporate the actual data and its reflective of change. Sure, snowfall didn't work out for the northeast, but I think it was clear that change is afoot given the turn of events in other regions.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is the result I got with respect to my forecast, too....I was too warm, but largely got the snow right.

I see what you are saying concerning the actual pattern, but at the end of the day, I think its important to incoporate the actual data and its reflective of change. Sure, snowfall didn't work out for the northeast, but I think it was clear that change is afoot given the turn of events in other areas.

I agree with what you are saying to some extent with the magnitude of the +PNA coming in significantly higher than we have seen in past cases. This goes to the greater shift we have seen since May 2023 with the record blocking and warmth which has dominated in Canada. It’s quite possible that we are at the beginning of some new type of Pacific shift which we don’t fully understand yet. As global temperatures have greatly exceed past cases of Nino into La Niña transitions. Notice how much warmer Nino 1+2 remained this winter even though we were in La Niña. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bluewave said:

I agree with what you are saying to some extent with the magnitude of the +PNA coming in significantly higher than we have seen in past cases. This goes to the greater shift we have seen since May 2023 with the record blocking and warmth which has dominated in Canada. It’s quite possible that we are at the beginning of some new type of Pacific shift which we don’t fully understand yet. As global temperatures have  greatly exceed past cases of Nino into La Niña transitions. 
 

 

Yea, that is all I am saying...as far as any CC induced modifications to the next Pacific warm phase, we are just going to have to wait and see. I obviously expect this warm phase to produce a milder outcome than the last one...without question.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

February 2025 PDO is in at -1.4, which is lower than the -1.28 reading in January.

I had 2013 as the analog for PDO this year. How Jan/Feb 2025 compares to Jan/Feb 2013:

2025 -1.28 -1.40

2013 -1.10 -1.42

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

February 2025 PDO is in at -1.4, which is lower than the -1.28 reading in January.

I had 2013 as the analog for PDO this year. How Jan/Feb 2025 compares to Jan/Feb 2013:

2025 -1.28 -1.40

2013 -1.10 -1.42

The difficult thing with analogs is finding their value...sometimes I feel as though coming up with the list of analogs is the easy part, but discerning which aspect of each year will offer insight into the coming season is the true challenge. I had 1999-2000 is a pretty strong analog, most notably for the late SSW, but as it turned out, it also had a record +PNA for a February La Nina and was right around transiton from a predominately -PDO to +PDO.

2014 was all about January for me.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Natural Gas is already up +8% today, making it +16% in the last 2 days. When that happens, since it's up to 60-80% correlated to weather, you have to consider what is going on with the global pattern.

1) There is a 970s mb low currently in the Midwest.. almost record breaking so far south. The first major low pressure in the Midwest in a long time. 

2) There is a major Stratosphere warming on the horizon.. weeks out. Could the impact have been previously underestimated (NAO correlation)? 

3) Per CPC, the PNA has been positive every day since Dec 1st. Now March, is there is a cold-continuum in play here? Although there was a 3 week period in February where it likely wasn't positive, it is the first relative +PNA Winter in 8 years. Does the pattern outperform models in its staying power this year? 

[GaWx]

This morning’s 0Z has the minimum 60N/10mb wind drop on 3/12 all of the way down to -26 on GFS and -24 on GEFS! Also, this is now favored to be a very early FW type of reversal as opposed to just a major SSW type of reversal:

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This morning’s 0Z has the minimum 60N/10mb wind drop on 3/12 all of the way down to -26 on GFS and -24 on GEFS! Also, this is now favored to be a very early FW type of reversal as opposed to just a major SSW type of reversal:

Reminiscent of the very early 2016 FW 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Reminiscent of the very early 2016 FW 

But will its cooling effects in the E US late Mar through Apr be similarly insignificant? If so, based on what?

 The AO/NAO for the 2nd half of Mar moved from strongly + on the EW run of Feb 28 to neutral on the 3/3 run.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

DJF ONI: -0.6

DJF RONI: -1.18

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

But will its cooling effects in the E US late Mar through Apr be similarly insignificant? If so, based on what?

 The AO/NAO for the 2nd half of Mar moved from strongly + on the EW run of Feb 28 to neutral on the 3/3 run.

I don’t believe it’s going to couple with the troposphere….none of the stratospheric events in the last 5 months (since November) have and I’m not seeing any indications that this one will either. And even if it did, it’ll be spring. Maybe it mutes the warmup the 2nd half of March? But as far as it descending the east back into deep winter with arctic cold and mountains of snow from 3/20-4/15 like JB and Mark Margavage are wishcasting? Lmfaoooo

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t believe it’s going to couple with the troposphere….none of the stratospheric events in the last 5 months (since November) have and I’m not seeing any indications that this one will either. And even if it did, it’ll be spring. Maybe it mutes the warmup the 2nd half of March? But as far as it descending the east back into deep winter with arctic cold and mountains of snow from 3/20-4/15 like JB and Mark Margavage are wishcasting? Lmfaoooo

This is the first Stratosphere warming of the cold season, since November.  

Today's Euro isn't as strong as the GFS on 10mb warming at Day 8+. 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This is the first Stratosphere warming of the cold season, since November.  

Today's Euro isn't as strong as the GFS on 10mb warming at Day 8+. 

Today’s Euro Weeklies mean min low point isn’t quite as low as yesterday’s -20. It’s ~-18.5 on 3/12, still strong enough:

[michsnowfreak]

Last thing Ill say about NYC snowfall (not saying anything about temps). I dont live there, nor will I ever, so I have NO stake whatsoever in the climate there. I just feel theres way too much twisting of data in looking for what the future holds for their snowfall. What I DO know is that no one will have the answer for several more decades of actual data that hasnt yet happened.

NYC literally just had a stretch of 8 of 13 years seeing 40"+ snowfall. Funny how winters of yore arent so yore when you look up the snow data. The last 9 winters to feature 40"+ snowfall go back 23 years. Prior to that, it took 79 years. 

40”+ NYC winters
1923-24 thru 1956-57: 2 of 34
1957-58 thru 1966-67: 4 of 10
1967-68 thru 2001-02: 3 of 35
2002-03 thru 2014-15: 8 of 13
2015-16 thru 2024-25: 1 of 10

1923-24 thru 2001-02: 9 of 79 years
2002-03 thru 2024-25: 9 of 23 years
 

[LibertyBell]

On 3/2/2025 at 4:10 PM, GaWx said:

NYC had these winters with both sub 32 F DJFs and <20” of total seasonal snowfall:

-1967-8: 19.5”

-1962-3: 16.3”

-1958-9: 13.0”

-1900-01: 9.1”

-1871-2: 14.4” 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

wow those must have been some dry winters!

1900-01 is beyond the pale lol

But those late 50s and 60s winters were pretty dry too.

 

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you guys recall, the 2023-2024 winter (last season) had a lot of similaraities to the 1972-1973 strong el Nino (during the previous secondary PAC cold phase peak) in the sense that it was competing with the MC forcing.....though obviously it was much warmer given CC.

last winter was much snowier here at JFK than 1972-73 was, we had a 4 inch and a 6 inch snowstorm here in the same week in February last year!

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

last winter was much snowier here at JFK than 1972-73 was, we had a 4 inch and a 6 inch snowstorm here in the same week in February last year!

 

Oh, well in that case, let me recontemplate the meaning of life.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This is the first Stratosphere warming of the cold season, since November.  

Today's Euro isn't as strong as the GFS on 10mb warming at Day 8+. 

Yea, the one last month was born of low level, tropospheric processes and worked its way upward, which is why the effect was instant.

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, well in that case, let me recontemplate the meaning of life.

it was more enjoyable than this one, of course el ninos are usually better.

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, the one last month was born of low level, tropospheric processes and worked its way upward, which is why the effect was instant.

that sounds like a tidal wave effect rather than a convective response which is top down.

 

[bluewave]

The last 7 snowfall seasons have been the lowest 7 year snowfall combined from Philly up to Boston. It has been a result of the much warmer winters and the warmer storm tracks. Since the 1990s, this region has relied heavily on coastal Noreaster tracks near the 40/70 benchmark to reach average to above average snowfall.

In the colder era before the 1990s, there were several seasons reaching average snowfall without big KU NESIS snowstorms. So there were more ways to break even in a colder climate. Since tracks further to the west didn’t draw in the amount of warmth we have experienced with the cutter and hugger tracks over the last 7 seasons.

Places like NYC have come to rely exclusively on this benchmark storm track just to approach average last 30 years. So when just one type of storm track which can be a smaller percentage of the total storm tracks essentially shuts off, the outcome has been record low snowfall averages over 7 years. 

While the region experienced their first average temperature winter in a decade this winter, the storm tracks were still too warm for heavy snows in places like NYC. Since the storm day winter average temperature was 41.0°. So this muted the effect of the 34.8° winter average temperature which was very close to the 1951 to 2010 long term average. 

This has been the first 7 year period with such low snowfall being the result of warmth. Past 7 year snow droughts were usually the result of drier patterns and not lack of cold for winter average temperatures and storm tracks. In the colder climate we occasionally had dry stretches. So shifting back closer to average snowfall for the remainder of the 2020s will be more of a challenge now since the warmth has continued increasing. 

Those past record low 7 year stretches all ended with heavy snowfall with NYC seeing upwards of 50” and 60” to over 70”. Such higher totals for especially from Philly to NYC will be a challenge in the much warmer 2020s climate. Boston probably has more leeway to break the snow drought if we see a true benchmark storm track return since they are a colder climate than Philly and NYC. 

This highlights the challenges of having to rely so much on just one type of storm track for average to above average snowfall. This wasn’t the case in a colder climate for average snowfall seasons around NYC. But getting the big seasons still required the benchmark track. 

State College is a location that relied heavily on one type of storm track for their heavier snows. The a storm track called Apps or inside runner used to be very common there. These days we see more storms tracking west of the mountains and giving the Great Lakes historic snows. So State College has seen a steady 20 decline in their snowfall over the last 20 years. I am hoping this isn’t a good comparison to benchmark tracks since we are only 7 years in and not 20 years like State College. 

So it will be interesting to see what happens during the rest of the 2020s. 
 

7 year running average record low snowfall 

PHI….2025….13.6”…….1992…..14.9”……95-96….65.5”….1955….13.4”……57-58….41.8”

NYC…2025….14.9”…...1992…..16.3”…..93-94…53.4”….95-96….73.6”…1976….17.2”…77-78….50.7”…..1956….17.0”….57-58….44.7”…..1932….15.4”….33-34…..52.0”

BOS….2025…..26.6”…….1992…..29.9”…..92-93….83.9”….93-94….90.3”….95-96….107.6”……1955….29.9”…..55-56…..60.9”…..56-57….52”

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it was more enjoyable than this one, of course el ninos are usually better.

I would honestly take last year over this, too...snowfall was about the same, retention was much better this season, but last year had by far the best storm for me....which is what I weight heavily.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last 7 snowfall seasons have been the lowest 7 year snowfall combined from Philly up to Boston. It has been a result of the much warmer winters and the warmer storm tracks. Since the 1990s, this region has relied heavily on coastal Noreaster tracks near the 40/70 benchmark to reach average to above average snowfall.

In the colder era before the 1990s, there were several seasons reaching average snowfall without big KU NESIS snowstorms. So there were more ways to break even in a colder climate. Since tracks further to the west didn’t draw in the amount of warmth we have experienced with the cutter and hugger tracks over the last 7 seasons.

Places like NYC have come to rely exclusively on this benchmark storm track just to approach average last 30 years. So when just one type of storm track which can be a smaller percentage of the total storm tracks essentially shuts off, the outcome has been record low snowfall averages over 7 years. 

While the region experienced their first average temperature winter in a decade this winter, the storm tracks were still too warm for heavy snows in places like NYC. Since the storm day winter average temperature was 41.0°. So this muted the effect of the 34.8° winter average temperature which was very close to the 1951 to 2010 long term average. 

This has been the first 7 year period with such low snowfall being the result of warmth. Past 7 year snow droughts were usually the result of drier patterns and not lack of cold for winter average temperatures and storm tracks. So in a colder climate we occasionally see dry stretches. So shifting back closer to average snowfall for the remainder of the 2020s will be more of a challenge now since the warmth has continued increasing. 

Those past record low 7 year stretches all ended with heavy snowfall with NYC seeing upwards of 50” and 60” to over 70”. Such higher totals for especially from Philly to NYC will be a challenge in the much warmer 2020s climate. Boston probably has more leeway to break the snow drought if we see a true benchmark storm track return since they are a colder climate than Philly and NYC. 

This highlights the challenges of having to rely so much on just one type of storm track for average to above average snowfall. This wasn’t the case in a colder climate for average snowfall seasons around NYC. But getting the big seasons still required the benchmark track. 

State College is a location that relied heavily on one type of storm track for their heavier snows. The a storm track called Apps or inside runner used to be very common there. These days we see more storms tracking west of the mountains and giving the Great Lakes historic snows. So State College has seen a steady 20 decline in their snowfall over the last 20 years. I am hoping this isn’t a good comparison to benchmark tracks since we are only 7 years in and not 20 years like State College. 

So it will be interesting to see what happens during the rest of the 2020s. 
 

7 year running average record low snowfall 

PHI….2025….13.6”…….1992…..14.9”……95-96….65.5”….1955….13.4”……57-58….41.8”

NYC…2025….14.9”…...1992…..16.3”…..93-94…53.4”….95-96….73.6”…1976….17.2”…77-78….50.7”…..1956….17.0”….57-58….44.7”…..1932….15.4”….33-34…..52.0”

BOS….2025…..26.6”…….1992…..29.9”…..92-93….83.9”….93-94….90.3”….95-96….107.6”……1955….29.9”…..55-56…..60.9”…..56-57….52”

 

 

Yea, while I'm sure the storm day mean temp is somewhat correlated to the mean seasonal temp, its obviously not a perfect 1 correlation so the storm track is what matters in the end......that obviously determines the crucal storm day temp. It isn't just a thermal issue, either....to get those 50"+ upper tier seasons in NYC, you need at least one large event or two and you aren't getting huge dumps with the mid levels lows to your west. Even if the low levels remain cold, you don't want the mid levels drying out and/or warming.

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would honestly take last year over this, too...snowfall was about the same, retention was much better this season, but last year had by far the best storm for me....which is what I weight heavily.

Same here big storms are what make a winter great