2024-2025 La Nina

[GaWx]

OHC and Nino 3.4 SSTs have recently been pretty rapidly rising with slightly warm biased CRW up to +0.086, cold biased CDAS up to -0.222, and OHC up to just above -0.6 from ~-1.25 late Jan (OISST dailies graph hasn’t been available since Jan 5th!):

[GaWx]

WCS PDO just rose to -0.18 on 3/1/25, its highest daily since 3/22/24!

[GaWx]

Feb 30 mb QBO fell to +10.55 from Jan’s +12.11 and the recent peak in Nov of +13.78. It will likely be negative by summer with very likely early autumn at the latest per historical patterns:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

First of all, Boston didn’t have a historically cold winter this year. 31.6° was as close to the 1981-2010 average of 31.8° that you can get. The only reason you finished with a small cold departure was due to the 1991-2020 normals being warmer at 32.5°. This wasn't as cold as the 03-04 winter that you cited that you cited was.

The reason for the below average snowfall for your area was a continuation of the warmer storm tracks which have been the pattern since 18-19. The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has lead to storms cutting to the Great Lakes, others hugging the coast or tracking just inland leading to mixed precipitation events, and tracks getting suppressed too far south due to kicker troughs entering the West as lows are exiting the East Coast. So benchmark storm tracks have been few and far between since 18-19. 

My analysis isn’t based on theory since I have 60 years of snowfall data around NYC Metro to back it up. When NYC had a more stable and colder climate from the early 60s to early 90s, there were many median snowfall seasons in the 19” to 30” range. These middle of the road closer to average seasons have become few and far between over the last 30 years. They were replaced by most seasons coming much lower or much higher. So a shift to all or nothing type seasons. The last 7 seasons perfectly conformed to this 30 year snowfall distribution pattern. So did the 09-10 to 17-18 pattern.

As the winters and or storm tracks continue to warm, this will favor more of the below range type winters. But where we still have to wait for data is to know we will see more of a shift to benchmark storm tracks in the coming winters. This could bring the recent average back closer to 20” around NYC Metro or maybe above for a short interval before dropping back down under 20” with further winter warming. So it’s more of a timing issue rather than a directional one.

I will go on record saying that I don’t see a 09-10 to 17-18 historic benchmark snowstorm pattern returning in this much warmer climate. So I stand by may call that the 09-10 to 17-18 was the highest or peak snowfall over a 9 year range that we see around NYC Metro. My guess based on the data is that when we get into the 2030s, it will be clear that 18-19 was the beginning of the snowfall decline.

The recent 7 year snowfall average in NYC is 14.9” which is the lowest 7 year mean on record. All previous 7 year slumps were followed by big seasons of 50”+ and winter average temperatures near 32.0° or lower. This has not happened in over a decade with how warm the winters and storm tracks have become. So it will be a challenge meeting those conditions over the next several winters with the warming trend which has become more pronounced over the last decade.

This year was a very unique winter. Storm tracks cutting to the Great Lakes is a bit misleading, because there werent really any big winter storms. Just lots of small and a few moderate ones. I know NYC is a completely different climate than the Great Lakes (or New England), but I just dont see how you can make any assertion of what the future holds for winter snowfall in your area. Ive always thought that its ridiculous to be SO closely removed from our widespread period of record snow (roughly 2007-18, depending on area), that some assert that while we JUST got over the snowiest period in the climate record, a handful of low-snow winters are the "new norm" and itll only get worse. Absolutely no science behind that.

Snowfall and temps DO NOT always go hand in hand. There is less and less of a correlation between the two the further north you go obviously. But theres also a bit too much obsession over temp departures IMO. If you go back to last Fall, SO many were certain that a warm, if not torch, winter was on the way, that the fact that it ended up as a colder than normal winter is throwing some onto the defensive, once again bringing up colder periods in the climate record. That is all a moot point. It was PLENTY cold for more snow than fell virtually everywhere, sometimes storm tracks just dont cooperate. In fact, from a longterm perspective, I kinda like how we saw the cold this winter, despite the underwhelming snowfall, because it throws another wrench in all these assumptions for the future of snowfall in certain areas. And Im talking more for your area, as I already well KNEW that my area's snowfall is far less dependent on whether we have a cold or mild winter. I can take the coldest average period of NYC's climate record and its still a top 10 warm winter for Detroit, yet NYC has had about 30 winters in their climate record with 40"+ snow (Detroits avg is 45"). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

The 0Z 3/2/25 GFS/GEPS had a min of -21 on 3/12 and 3/13, respectively. 0Z GEFS had -17 on 3/13 with 100% of members having a reversal to -5 or lower. And the 0Z Euro had -18 on 3/13 as we know. So, it is unanimous for a substantial reversal.

Pretty big SSW. It would be the first of the cold season. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Feb 30 mb QBO fell to +10.55 from Jan’s +12.11 and the recent peak in Nov of +13.78. It will likely be negative by summer with very likely early autumn at the latest per historical patterns:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

 

 

-QBO about 90% probable for next Winter... That makes a possible El Nino a bigger deal, with El Nino/-QBO, we get more Stratosphere warmings. 23-24 had 4 separate Winter 10mb warmings. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

WCS PDO just rose to -0.18 on 3/1/25, its highest daily since 3/22/24!

Showing this year it's more a product of the pattern than a leader... although I do think it reflects global patterns that are happening. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

OHC and Nino 3.4 SSTs have recently been pretty rapidly rising with slightly warm biased CRW up to +0.086, cold biased CDAS up to -0.222, and OHC up to just above -0.6 from ~-1.25 late Jan (OISST dailies graph hasn’t been available since Jan 5th!):

I wish the title wasn't La Nina.. it's going to be a ENSO Neutral year/peak. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Before significantly lowering snowfall averages, understand its been a 25-year decadal La Nina state. 

Notice the High pressure north and south of Nino 3.4, the largest global anomaly (when the Poles have 3x more average volatility). 

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I wish the title wasn't La Nina.. it's going to be a ENSO Neutral year/peak. 

But per RONI and MEI v2 it will be an unofficial La Niña, right?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

But per RONI and MEI v2 it will be an unofficial La Niña, right?

I think so, Weak La Nina. 

SOI has also been positive now 7 months in a row, although not strong.. again a borderline Weak Nina indicator. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I'd say 2024-25 is an ENSO neutral, even if it wasn't conventional (like say 2013-14). We basically had a WPAC la nina and a EPAC el nino. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

If you adjust for global warming (to still have an even amount of Nina and Nino events), we still need -0.3c or lower for JFM for it to be La Nina.. If Nino 3.4 is 0.0 on March 1st, that's not looking likely to happen. 

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If you adjust for global warming (to still have an even amount of Nina and Nino events), we still need -0.3c or lower for JFM for it to be La Nina.. If Nino 3.4 is 0.0 on March 1st, that's not looking likely to happen. 

Why not just go by RONI? It dipped way down to moderate (-1.09 in NDJ) and that was the 7th straight -0.5- trimonth (starting with the rounded -0.46 of MJJ). Isn’t that enough?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Why not just go by RONI? It peaked way up at moderate (-1.09 in NDJ) and that was the 7th straight -0.5- trimonth (starting with the rounded -0.46 of MJJ). Isn’t that enough?

I just added up the years to find the relative warming trend, and divided it by that. I honestly haven't looked too much into the RONI. 

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I just added up the years to find the relative warming trend, and divided it by that. I honestly haven't looked too much into the RONI. 

I’m sure you know NG is +7% today. I doubt that that big of a rise is mainly due to colder models (even if they are colder), especially this late in the heating season, and am instead educatedly guessing it is due to seasonals due to the background state of a 238 bcf deficit vs 5 year avg storage compared to above avg storage as recently as midwinter. This seems more like a delayed effect from last week’s record breaking draw for so late in the season that of course was a result of the prior week’s extreme cold.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Why not just go by RONI? It dipped way down to moderate (-1.09 in NDJ) and that was the 7th straight -0.5- trimonth (starting with the rounded -0.46 of MJJ). Isn’t that enough?

Can you really this year a la nina when Nino 1+2 is at +1.1C, and has been in an el nino state most of the winter?

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Can you really this year a la nina when Nino 1+2 is at +1.1C, and has been in an el nino state most of the winter?

Modoki La Niña? Also, isn’t that +1.1 overdone due to GW? Same reason RONI better than ONI? On a RONIlike basis, Nino 1+2’s +1.1 may be the equivalent of only, say, +0.6.

[GaWx]

I had thought that the daily cyclonicwx OISST Nino 3.3 SSTs had stopped updating on Jan 5th. It turns out that that wasn’t the case and that the link had changed. So, here is the OISST 3.4 anom as of March 2nd, which is up to +0.043 and is almost as warm as the CRW’s +0.086:

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

50 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I’m sure you know NG is +7% today. I doubt that that big of a rise is mainly due to colder models (even if they are colder), especially this late in the heating season, and am instead educatedly guessing it is due to seasonals due to the background state of a 238 bcf deficit vs 5 year avg storage compared to above avg storage as recently as midwinter. This seems more like a delayed effect from last week’s record breaking draw for so late in the season that of course was a result of the prior week’s extreme cold.

Models have been trending significantly colder in the long range fwiw. The Euro at 300hr has a -NAO pattern.. before it was showing 70s. There is also the possibility of a cool down the last week of March and early April due to -NAO from lagged Stratosphere warming.. remember, -NAO's effect Europe too. 

[GaWx]

I’ll now look at current Nino 1+2 anomalies: way up there due to 2.3 to 2.5 C of warming just since late Jan!

CDAS: +1.46

 

CRW: +1.63

 

OISST: +1.54

Feb OISST came in at +0.69. Mar looks to be aiming for well over +1.

Per history what might that portend for 2025-6 ENSO? First of all, a reduction of ~0.5 may be recommended to take into account GW/relative global tropical temps. But even so, an adjusted Mar might still have a good shot at +1+.

 -3/2023 Nino 1+2 (on the way to El Nino) was way up at +1.52! Back then RONI was ~0.3 cooler than ONI. So, the relative equiv 3/2023 1+2 may have been ~+1.2. For Mar 2025 to reach that, the actual 1+2 may need to be way up at +1.7. That does seem possible with the current OISST already up at +1.54. Feb 2023’s 1+2 of +0.71 was similar to Feb of 2025’s +0.69.

-But OTOH, Feb/Mar of 2017 were way up at +1.14/1.83 and that didn’t head to El Niño as instead 2017-8 was a 2nd year La Niña.

-Feb/Mar 1998/1983 strong warmth were leftover from just ending super El Niños. So, they’re not comparable.

 So, which of 2023 (incoming El Niño) and 2017 (no incoming El Niño) is more likely?

 

 

[GaWx]

 

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Models have been trending significantly colder in the long range fwiw. The Euro at 300hr has a -NAO pattern.. before it was showing 70s. There is also the possibility of a cool down the last week of March and early April due to -NAO from lagged Stratosphere warming.. remember, -NAO's effect Europe too. 

 I see that now on the Euro Weeklies. H5 has risen significantly in the Arctic, especially over Greenland, over the last 3 days. Is this an adjustment due to the decreasing mean 60N 10 mb wind? Today’s mean low on Mar 13th dropped from yesterday’s -18 to -20, lowest EW yet. That’s a very strong reversal to either a major SSW or FW. 2m temps in the E US are still strongly favoring AN to NN over BN but are somewhat less mild than yesterday most weeks.

Today’s Euro Weeklies favor a very early FW: all members sink to -10 or lower.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Is this an adjustment due to the decreasing mean 60N 10 mb wind? Today’s mean low on Mar 13th dropped from yesterday’s -18 to -20, lowest EW yet. That’s a very strong reversal to either a major SSW or FW.

That's what I've been wondering. A few days ago I was commenting on the disconnect between 500mb and 10mb in the long range, now 500mb has moved somewhat toward it. I think part of the NG move has to do with the -NAO now projected March 7-12, where before they had nothing.. the SSW doesn't really get going until March 11th.

It was showing a strong +AO before at 300+ hrs, now it's just a modest signal, but still lower heights over the arctic circle. I've run the correlations, and there is a mean +40dm -NAO signal at Day+0 with SSW (pretty weak), while a +120dm +time (can range from +60 days in October to +10-15 days in March/early April)... so strengthening SSW signal may also be a slightly higher -NAO correlation for like the last week of March and early April. 

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's what I've been wondering. A few days ago I was commenting on the disconnect between 500mb and 10mb in the long range, now 500mb has moved somewhat toward it. I think part of the NG move has to do with the -NAO now projected March 7-12, where before they had nothing.. the SSW doesn't really get going until March 11th.

It was showing a strong +AO before at 300+ hrs, now it's just a modest signal, but still lower heights over the arctic circle. I've run the correlations, and there is a mean +40dm -NAO signal at Day+0 with SSW (pretty weak), while a +120dm +time (can range from +60 days in October to +10-15 days in March/early April)... so strengthening SSW signal may also be a slightly higher -NAO correlation for like the last week of March and early April. 

Check out this huge change in the EWs at H5 over the Arctic/Greenland for Mar 17-23 over just the last 3 days of runs:

3 days ago (2/28 run) for 3/17-23: solid +AO/+NAO

 

On that run the lowest mean wind at 60N/10mb was only down to near zero:

Today’s H5 run for 3/17-23: pretty neutral AO/NAO

 

Today’s min zonal wind way down to -20:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Check out this huge change in the EWs at H5 over the Arctic/Greenland for Mar 17-23 over just the last 3 days of runs:

3 days ago (2/28 run) for 3/17-23: solid +AO/+NAO

Today’s run for 3/17-23: pretty neutral AO/NAO

Yeah, I'm honestly surprised to see Natural Gas move so much on weather this late in the season, but the model trends in the NAO/AO area are why - it's a lot of the reason. 

You also can't deny that Day-0 correlation between -NAO and Stratosphere warming there. It pops up at the same time from a non-negative state, so that's a few times I've seen that now in model trend in the last few years.. 

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Snowfall and temps DO NOT always go hand in hand. There is less and less of a correlation between the two the further north you go obviously. But theres also a bit too much obsession over temp departures IMO. If you go back to last Fall, SO many were certain that a warm, if not torch, winter was on the way, that the fact that it ended up as a colder than normal winter is throwing some onto the defensive, once again bringing up colder periods in the climate record. That is all a moot point. It was PLENTY cold for more snow than fell virtually everywhere, sometimes storm tracks just dont cooperate. In fact, from a longterm perspective, I kinda like how we saw the cold this winter, despite the underwhelming snowfall, because it throws another wrench in all these assumptions for the future of snowfall in certain areas. And Im talking more for your area, as I already well KNEW that my area's snowfall is far less dependent on whether we have a cold or mild winter. I can take the coldest average period of NYC's climate record and its still a top 10 warm winter for Detroit, yet NYC has had about 30 winters in their climate record with 40"+ snow (Detroits avg is 45"). 

The winter pattern this year wasn’t a surprise to me since I was discussing the +PNA mismatch potential last October in this thread. At least that portion of what happened related to the October forcing continuing into winter followed the past occurrences which I already outlined numerous times earlier in this thread. But the Pacific Jet did not relax as in earlier years with +PNA La Ninas from December into January. This was my reference last October to other factors not lining up the same way so the outcomes could be different this year.

You seem to be agreeing with what I have said numerous times in regard to departures. This winter for many around the northeast was only average temperature wise. Since the small -1 departures were only average based on earlier climo from 1981-2010. This is why I use the actual temperatures and not the departures. As the bar for colder departures naturally gets lower as the means keep rising for each 10 year update.

This winter was the warmest on record for my area compared to similar -EPO +PNA -AO patterns which have occurred in the past. So the magnitude and duration of the cold was lesser than past instances which had these 500mb patterns. As this was one of the warmest winters on record across the Northern Hemisphere. This along with the strength of the Pacific Jet and other teleconnections prevented a cold and snowy outcome like we saw in the Northeast in 13-14. It’s why I didn’t buy the analogs mentioning a 13-14 repeat that were being posted on twitter. It’s also not controversial to recognize that Arctic outbreaks cover less territory in a rapidly warming world. And the places that do get the coldest aren’t as widespread as they used to be in a colder world.

So when the U.S. was having its Arctic outbreaks, the geographic footprint was greatly reduced compared to the past. The cold tended to focus more in smaller regions and not pushing into the Northeast. The cold concentrated in pockets focused to our south and west like we saw with the January 2019, and February 2021. This is why top 10 and 20 warmest months greatly outnumber top 10 and 20 coldest. 

You say that this wasn’t a cutter pattern, yet we had one of the most intense February cutters on record several weeks ago with high winds across the Northeast and heavy rains. The storm track was so warm that it was the first time in the Northeast with a -5 -AO and +500 meter Greenland block. As the past instances saw cold suppressed tracks or historic NYC blizzards instead. 

You obviously didn’t read my earlier posts about the long term snowfall history and changes which have been occurring over the last 60 years. So you seem to be editorializing on some talking point that you read from someone else. Obviously, lake effect snow has been doing great as I have pointed out with the storm track patterns and record Great Lakes warmth leading to delayed freeze-ups. 

The reason that NYC and surrounding areas had well below normal snowfall was due to the fact that the storm tracks continued to be warmer than average like we have seen for much of the last 7 winters. This is why I pointed out that the actual winter average temperature was significantly cooler than on the days that the precipitation fell. So it was too warm on the days that the precipitation fell for much snow. Go back and read my last few posts in this thread outlining the importance of the actual temperatures on the days that the precipitation falls rather than what the winter average temperature was.

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Following Sept correlation with March Nino 1+2

Following November (Nov 2025)

[roardog]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Following Sept correlation with March Nino 1+2

Following November (Nov 2025)

The PDO looks strongly positive there. I’m not so sure that’s going to happen.