2024-2025 La Nina

[snowman19]

Updates on last week’s thoughts:
1. heavy rain did not materialize for Galveston and Houston last weekend. Instead, a lighter rainfall occurred.
2. The Southwest experienced much warmer than normal conditions from Monday through Friday. Phoenix reached 90° on February 25th, its fourth earliest such temperature on record.  Tucson tied its high for the year, so far, with a temperature of 86° on February 24 and February 25.
3. No significant (6” or above) snowstorms occurred in Washington, DC to Boston or in the major Great Lakes cities (Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, and Toronto).

@Donsutherland1 @Bluewave As you guys suspected, it appears that there is going to be no downwelling propagation into the troposphere with the upcoming mid-March SSWE. So the trend of a total lack of coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere will continue, this has been the case since November with every wave reflection and displacement event we’ve seen. Further, the overnight ensembles look awful for a snow event next weekend in the NYC metro area and they all still agree on a major mid-month warmup to well above average temps. Given that we are now into met spring, after the Sun/Mon cold snap, it may very well be RIP winter 2024-25

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^I was about to comment on how the Day 14-16 model projections are about as uniform +AO as it gets throughout the N. Hemisphere. Kind of amazing that 10mb is projected to be warm then, but they are not always connected. Actually I did research once that found that +time lag on Stratosphere warmings are 3x more correlated to the -NAO than Day+0.  In this case, a mid to late March warming would correlate with -NAO conditions the last week of March and into early April, as the usual time lag at this time of year is +15 days. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

HM did a huge, detailed write up the end of March, 2012 following the disaster 11-12 winter. He titled it “GLAAMourous”. I wish i still had it saved. He stated that the worst case scenario for an east coast winter is a cold-neutral ENSO/-QBO/-PDO immediately following a La Niña. He said that it very strongly supports a flat, equatorial Aleutian ridge and +EPO……

I don't think we will have a -PDO next season and may ENSO maybe warmer than cold-neutral. Even if the PDO is still technically negative, it's important to consider that a heavy component of the PDO is a reflection of what is transpiring, so the momentum is more important. This year is a great illustration.....fairly deeply - PDO by numeric standards, but strongly +PNA in the seasonal mean.

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^I was about to comment on how the Day 14-16 model projections are about as uniform +AO as it gets throughout the N. Hemisphere. Kind of amazing that 10mb is projected to be warm then, but they are not always connected. Actually I did research once that found that +time lag on Stratosphere warmings are 3x more correlated to the -NAO than Day+0.  In this case, a mid to late March warming would correlate with -NAO conditions the last week of March and into early April, as the usual time lag at this time of year is +15 days. 

Yea, I have never envisioned this late season SSW has very impactful for us.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@Donsutherland1 @Bluewave As you guys suspected, it appears that there is going to be no downwelling propagation into the troposphere with the upcoming mid-March SSWE. So the trend of a total lack of coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere will continue, this has been the case since November with every wave reflection and displacement event we’ve seen. Further, the overnight ensembles look awful for a snow event next weekend in the NYC metro area and they all still agree on a major mid-month warmup to well above average temps. Given that we are now into met spring, after the Sun/Mon cold snap, it may very well be RIP winter 2024-25

 

 

 

 

Even if it did propagate, I don't think it would really manifest into the troposphere until the end of the month, which just too late for most.

[michsnowfreak]

Fun thread to follow since last summer/fall, but If I was a forecaster (locally, let alone nationally) I would've failed miserably this winter. Im at 27.5" of snow on the season to date, the largest snowstorm was a 2-day event of 4.8", and without hesitation I can say that the cold and days with snowcover exceeded my expectations while the snowfall and storminess fell short. 

January and February were pretty enjoyable for the winter lover in me (lots of scenic winter days, frequent snow, hikes/walks, sledding with nephews, etc) but there was little in the way of big excitement. It behaved unlike any nina in memory. I'll definitely be following the thread for next winter, but will have little confidence in what will happen, regardless of what the consensus is.

[GaWx]

 Ready or not it is now evident that either a major SSW or a very early FW is very likely on the way within ~10 days. This (today’s Euro Weeklies) shows ~95 of 100 members reversing by Mar 14th. The mean gets way down to -10 on 3/14. Today’s has the strongest signal yet. This would be consistent with Joe D’Aleo’s study showing a strong tendency for a major SSW during +QBO/strong winter solar. Solar for DJF came out to ~148:

*Edit: there’s no indication this will lead to increased snow. There’s always some chance this kind of thing will lead to BN temps in 15+ days. But as of now the models don’t even show that. Even if it were to do so, that may not mean much, if any, snow for the NE US since it will be so late in the season.

@snowman19

Kudos to @40/70 Benchmarkfor predicting this for some point in the late season with confidence.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Ready or not it is now evident that either a major SSW or a very early FW is very likely on the way within ~10 days. This (today’s Euro Weeklies) shows ~95 of 100 members reversing by Mar 14th. The mean gets way down to -10 on 3/14. Today’s has the strongest signal yet. This would be consistent with Joe D’Aleo’s study showing a strong tendency for a major SSW during +QBO/strong winter solar. Solar for DJF came out to ~148:

*Edit: there’s no indication this will lead to increased snow. There’s always some chance this kind of thing will lead to BN temps in 15+ days. But as of now the models don’t even show that. Even if it were to do so, that may not mean much, if any, snow for the NE US since it will be so late in the season.

@snowman19

Kudos to @40/70 Benchmarkfor predicting this for some point in the late season with confidence.

Yea, I agree it will be pretty useless...like most of the cold this winter for my region.

Better luck next year.

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I agree it will be pretty useless...like most of the cold this winter for my region.

Better luck next year.

I agree. Whether this mid-month event gets classified as an actual major SSWE or an early FW, it’s going to be too little, too late. It looks extremely unlikely to propagate down and couple into the troposphere and even if it did, it will be astronomical spring by the time any effects would be felt with the lag. Of course JB is in hype/wishcasting mode, saying deep winter is coming back from 3/20-4/15 and the east is going to go into an arctic cold tundra with mountains of snow. That’s how you know that scenario definitely isn’t happening. He’s the ultimate kiss of death for winter weather in the east 

[BuffaloWeather]

Just went over 175" on the year, another great winter for those impacted by lake effect snow. Places south of here are well over 200" and places in the tug are well over 300". Gaylord Michigan broke its all time snowfall record this year.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I agree it will be pretty useless...like most of the cold this winter for my region.

The only temperatures which matter for the snow fans are on the day which the precipitation is falling. Doesn’t matter what the average winter temperature was. So unless we can get colder storm tracks in the coming years, we will continue to see this much lower snowfall pattern which began around 18-19. Hopefully, we can shift the persistent warm storm track to something more favorable for heavier snows in the coming years.

The biggest issue has been that the storm tracks have been too warm for much snow. While NYC generally has needed winter average temperatures near 32.0° for bigger seasons approaching 50” or higher, they have reached 20-30” or more with warmer winters that had cold enough storm tracks. We saw this in 15-16, 16-17, 17-18, and 20-21.

So while this winter had near average historical temperatures, the storm tracks were too warm. This lead to the average temperature for the days on which .25 or more of precipitation fell to be 41.5°. This was significantly warmer than the winter average temperature of 34.8°. So this only gave NYC 12.9” of snow.

The temperature in 86-87 also averaged 34.8°. But the average temperature on the days that .25 or more of precipitation fell was 37.0°. So the storm tracks were cold enough for 23.1” of snow on the season which was within a few inches of average. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The only temperatures which matter for the snow fans are on the day which the precipitation is falling. Doesn’t matter what the average winter temperature was. So unless we can get colder storm tracks in the coming years, we will continue to see this much lower snowfall pattern which began around 18-19. Hopefully, we can shift the persistent warm storm track to something more favorable for heavier snows in the coming years.

 

The biggest issue has been that the storm tracks have been too warm for much snow. While NYC generally has needed winter average temperatures near 32.0° for bigger seasons approaching 50” or higher, they have reached 20-30” or more with warmer winters that had cold enough storm tracks. We saw this in 15-16, 16-17, 17-18, and 20-21.

So while this winter had near average historical temperatures, the storm tracks were too warm. This lead to the average temperature for the days on which .25 or more of precipitation fell to be 41.5°. This was significantly warmer than the winter average temperature of 34.8°. So this only gave NYC 12.9” of snow.

The temperature in 86-87 also averaged 34.8°. But the average temperature on the days that .25 or more of precipitation fell was 37.0°. So the storm tracks were cold enough for 23.1” of snow on the season which was within a few inches of average. 

This is actually the first below average temperature season that also featured below average snowfall since 2003-2004 for my area. Snowfall is more correlated to seasonal precipitation than temperature where I live and its like that for the northern half of SNE. That said, obviously I don't want exceptionally warm temperature anomalies like last year, either. As far as storm track...just a cycle, but like I said, I will reevaluate if we are still doing this in about 7 years.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I agree. Whether this mid-month event gets classified as an actual major SSWE or an early FW, it’s going to be too little, too late. It looks extremely unlikely to propagate down and couple into the troposphere and even if it did, it will be astronomical spring by the time any effects would be felt with the lag. Of course JB is in hype/wishcasting mode, saying deep winter is coming back from 3/20-4/15 and the east is going to go into an arctic cold tundra with mountains of snow. That’s how you know that scenario definitely isn’t happening. He’s the ultimate kiss of death for winter weather in the east 

what are his analogs now? 1955-56 and 1966-67 lol?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The only temperatures which matter for the snow fans are on the day which the precipitation is falling. Doesn’t matter what the average winter temperature was. So unless we can get colder storm tracks in the coming years, we will continue to see this much lower snowfall pattern which began around 18-19. Hopefully, we can shift the persistent warm storm track to something more favorable for heavier snows in the coming years.

 

The biggest issue has been that the storm tracks have been too warm for much snow. While NYC generally has needed winter average temperatures near 32.0° for bigger seasons approaching 50” or higher, they have reached 20-30” or more with warmer winters that had cold enough storm tracks. We saw this in 15-16, 16-17, 17-18, and 20-21.

So while this winter had near average historical temperatures, the storm tracks were too warm. This lead to the average temperature for the days on which .25 or more of precipitation fell to be 41.5°. This was significantly warmer than the winter average temperature of 34.8°. So this only gave NYC 12.9” of snow.

The temperature in 86-87 also averaged 34.8°. But the average temperature on the days that .25 or more of precipitation fell was 37.0°. So the storm tracks were cold enough for 23.1” of snow on the season which was within a few inches of average. 

This is why 40" of seasonal snowfall can't be considered historic in NYC, but 50" most definitely is.

We have had 40" in warmer winters like 05-06 and JFK received 40" with 40 degree average winter temperature in 15-16.

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is actually the first below average temperature season that also featured below average snowfall since 2003-2004 for my area. Snowfall is more correlated to seasonal precipitation than temperature where I live and its like that for the northern half of SNE. That said, obviously I don't want exceptionally warm temperature anomalies like last year, either. As far as storm track...just a cycle, but like I said, I will reevaluate if we are still doing this in about 7 years.

Same here. First below avg temp, below avg snow season (barring a huge late season storm) since 2003-04. Certainly a combo not seen in a long time.

Everyone likes what they like, but IMO the whole "only snow matters, not temps" mantra I see seems contradictory. Almost like an excuse for an unexpectedly cold, dry winter. If temps don't count, then all this discussion about mild winters since 2015-16 is really worthless. You and I can easily see good snowfall in mild winters, just doesn't have the same "feel" as a more sustained winter.

While I'm a huge weather geek, I also love all things winter. There was plenty of winter to enjoy this season, but there was little weather geek excitement. 

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The only temperatures which matter for the snow fans are on the day which the precipitation is falling. Doesn’t matter what the average winter temperature was. So unless we can get colder storm tracks in the coming years, we will continue to see this much lower snowfall pattern which began around 18-19. Hopefully, we can shift the persistent warm storm track to something more favorable for heavier snows in the coming years.

 

The biggest issue has been that the storm tracks have been too warm for much snow. While NYC generally has needed winter average temperatures near 32.0° for bigger seasons approaching 50” or higher, they have reached 20-30” or more with warmer winters that had cold enough storm tracks. We saw this in 15-16, 16-17, 17-18, and 20-21.

So while this winter had near average historical temperatures, the storm tracks were too warm. This lead to the average temperature for the days on which .25 or more of precipitation fell to be 41.5°. This was significantly warmer than the winter average temperature of 34.8°. So this only gave NYC 12.9” of snow.

The temperature in 86-87 also averaged 34.8°. But the average temperature on the days that .25 or more of precipitation fell was 37.0°. So the storm tracks were cold enough for 23.1” of snow on the season which was within a few inches of average. 

NYC had these winters with both sub 32 F DJFs and <20” of total seasonal snowfall:

-1967-8: 19.5”

-1962-3: 16.3”

-1958-9: 13.0”

-1900-01: 9.1”

-1871-2: 14.4” 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

[GaWx]

 

On 3/1/2025 at 7:53 PM, GaWx said:

 Ready or not it is now evident that either a major SSW or a very early FW is very likely on the way within ~10 days. This (today’s Euro Weeklies) shows ~95 of 100 members reversing by Mar 14th. The mean gets way down to -10 on 3/14. Today’s has the strongest signal yet. This would be consistent with Joe D’Aleo’s study showing a strong tendency for a major SSW during +QBO/strong winter solar. Solar for DJF came out to ~148:

*Edit: there’s no indication this will lead to increased snow. There’s always some chance this kind of thing will lead to BN temps in 15+ days. But as of now the models don’t even show that. Even if it were to do so, that may not mean much, if any, snow for the NE US since it will be so late in the season.

@snowman19

Kudos to @40/70 Benchmarkfor predicting this for some point in the late season with confidence.

Today’s Euro Weeklies mean has an even stronger reversal next week with low mean of -18 vs -10 on yesterday’s run and 100% of members having a reversal that goes at least down to -8!

[bluewave]

Just now, GaWx said:

NYC had these winters with both sub 32 F DJFs and <20” of snowfall:

-1967-8: 19.5”

-1962-3: 16.3”

-1958-9: 13.0”

-1900-01: 9.1”

-1871-2: 14.4” 

But the under 20” totals during those winters were the result of drier conditions and not being too warm on the days that precipitation fell. This is what sets the most recent 7 year period of low snowfall apart from past low snowfall periods around the NYC Metro region. Snowfall after the 7 year past snowfall slumps always rebounded since they ended with 50”+ snowfall seasons and winters which averaged near 32.0°. NYC hasn’t had either since 14-15.

This winter was both too warm on the storm days and the DJF average which was 34.8° to make a run on 50”. So it becomes more difficult to break a snow drought as the climate continues to get warmer around my region.

My guess is that the snowfall around NYC Metro region peaked during the 2010 to 2018 era and has begun a longer term decline since 2018-2019. The only question is if we can see a few closer to normal or above normal snowfall seasons along the way before the NYC average permanently drops under 20” in the coming years and decades. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s 

Today’s Euro Weeklies mean has an even stronger reversal next week with low mean of -18 vs -10 on yesterday’s run and 100% of members having a reversal that goes at least down to -8!

Maybe we'll turn to some -NAO conditions the last week of March, into early April.. 

At this time of year the -NAO is 3x more correlated to Stratosphere warming at +15 days vs +0-day.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here was the GFS

https://ibb.co/7dtxM0P9

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

But the under 20” totals during those winters were the result of drier conditions and not being too warm on the days that precipitation fell. This is what sets the most recent 7 year period of low snowfall apart from past low snowfall periods around the NYC Metro region. Snowfall after the 7 year past snowfall slumps always rebounded since they ended with 50”+ snowfall seasons and winters which averaged near 32.0°. NYC hasn’t had either since 14-15.

This winter was both too warm on the storm days and the DJF average which was 34.8° to make a run on 50”. So it becomes more difficult to break a snow drought as the climate continues to get warmer around my region.

My guess is that the snowfall around NYC Metro region peaked during the 2010 to 2018 era and has begun a longer term decline since 2018-2019. The only question is if we can see a few closer to normal or above normal snowfall seasons along the way before the NYC 

average permanently drops under 20” in the coming years and decades. 

 

I'm glad that you used the term "guess" because that is exactly what the theory is right now.....a guess.  The average snowfall in NYC since the 2014-2015 season is 23.3".

CPK went from 1977-1978 through the 1992-1993 season without even a 30" season. I understand that you can cite differences between past subpar periods with the more modern ones, but that doesn't change the fact that we are in need of more data to validate your theory. Hence it should not be assumed as fact. Any theory worth a damn will have some data and observations to support it, but that doesn't automatically deem it fact.

[jaxjagman]

The ENSO thread on the main page has become an IMBY thread,it use to be a functional thread  or somewhat at one time,its annoying to me now to even look at,just saying.You should see as the MJO stalls out into the IO or progressive slowly,this should strenghten NINA into the upcoming weeks 

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Here was the GFS

https://ibb.co/7dtxM0P9

The 0Z 3/2/25 GFS/GEPS had a min of -21 on 3/12 and 3/13, respectively. 0Z GEFS had -17 on 3/13 with 100% of members having a reversal to -5 or lower. And the 0Z Euro had -18 on 3/13 as we know. So, it is unanimous for a substantial reversal.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm glad that you used the term "guess" because that is exactly what the theory is right now.....a guess.  The average snowfall in NYC since the 2014-2015 season is 23.3".

CPK went from 1977-1978 through the 1992-1993 season without even a 30" season. I understand that you can cite differences between past subpar periods with the more modern ones, but that doesn't change the fact that we are in need of more data to validate your theory. Hence it should not be assumed as fact. Any theory worth a damn will have some data and observations to support it, but that doesn't automatically deem it fact.

First of all, Boston didn’t have a historically cold winter this year. 31.6° was as close to the 1981-2010 average of 31.8° that you can get. The only reason you finished with a small cold departure was due to the 1991-2020 normals being warmer at 32.5°. This wasn't as cold as the 03-04 winter that you cited that you cited was.

The reason for the below average snowfall for your area was a continuation of the warmer storm tracks which have been the pattern since 18-19. The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has lead to storms cutting to the Great Lakes, others hugging the coast or tracking just inland leading to mixed precipitation events, and tracks getting suppressed too far south due to kicker troughs entering the West as lows are exiting the East Coast. So benchmark storm tracks have been few and far between since 18-19. 

My analysis isn’t based on theory since I have 60 years of snowfall data around NYC Metro to back it up. When NYC had a more stable and colder climate from the early 60s to early 90s, there were many median snowfall seasons in the 19” to 30” range. These middle of the road closer to average seasons have become few and far between over the last 30 years. They were replaced by most seasons coming much lower or much higher. So a shift to all or nothing type seasons. The last 7 seasons perfectly conformed to this 30 year snowfall distribution pattern. So did the 09-10 to 17-18 pattern.

As the winters and or storm tracks continue to warm, this will favor more of the below range type winters. But where we still have to wait for data is to know we will see more of a shift to benchmark storm tracks in the coming winters. This could bring the recent average back closer to 20” around NYC Metro or maybe above for a short interval before dropping back down under 20” with further winter warming. So it’s more of a timing issue rather than a directional one.

I will go on record saying that I don’t see a 09-10 to 17-18 historic benchmark snowstorm pattern returning in this much warmer climate. So I stand by may call that the 09-10 to 17-18 was the highest or peak snowfall over a 9 year range that we see around NYC Metro. My guess based on the data is that when we get into the 2030s, it will be clear that 18-19 was the beginning of the snowfall decline.

The recent 7 year snowfall average in NYC is 14.9” which is the lowest 7 year mean on record. All previous 7 year slumps were followed by big seasons of 50”+ and winter average temperatures near 32.0° or lower. This has not happened in over a decade with how warm the winters and storm tracks have become. So it will be a challenge meeting those conditions over the next several winters with the warming trend which has become more pronounced over the last decade.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

First of all, Boston didn’t have a historically cold winter this year. 31.6° was as close to the 1981-2010 average of 31.8° that you can get. The only reason you finished with a small cold departure was due to the 1991-2020 normals being warmer at 32.5°. This wasn't as cold as the 03-04 winter that you cited that you cited was.

The reason for the below average snowfall for your area was a continuation of the warmer storm tracks which have been the pattern since 18-19. The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has lead to storms cutting to the Great Lakes, others hugging the coast or tracking just inland leading to mixed precipitation events, and tracks getting suppressed too far south due to kicker troughs entering the West as lows are exiting the East Coast. So benchmark storm tracks have been few and far between since 18-19. 

My analysis isn’t based on theory since I have 60 years of snowfall data around NYC Metro to back it up. When NYC had a more stable and colder climate from the early 60s to early 90s, there were many median snowfall seasons in the 19” to 30” range. These middle of the road closer to average seasons have become few and far between over the last 30 years. They were replaced by most seasons coming much lower or much higher. So a shift to all or nothing type seasons. The last 7 seasons perfectly conformed to this 30 year snowfall distribution pattern. So did the 09-10 to 17-18 pattern.

As the winters and or storm tracks continue to warm, this will favor more of the below range type winters. But where we still have to wait for data is to know we will see more of a shift to benchmark storm tracks in the coming winters. This could bring the recent average back closer to 20” around NYC Metro or maybe above for a short interval before dropping back down under 20” with further winter warming. So it’s more of a timing issue rather than a directional one.

I will go on record saying that I don’t see a 09-10 to 17-18 historic benchmark snowstorm pattern returning in this much warmer climate. So I stand by may call that the 09-10 to 17-18 was the highest or peak snowfall over a 9 year range that we see around NYC Metro. My guess based on the data is we get into the 2030s, it will be clear that 18-19 was the beginning of the snowfall decline.

The recent 7 year snowfall average in NYC is 14.9” which is the lowest 7 year mean on record. All previous 7 year slumps were followed by big seasons of 50”+ and winter average temperatures near 32.0° or lower. This has not happened in over a decade with how warm the winters and storm tracks have become. So it will be a challenge meeting those conditions over the next several winters with the warming trend which has become more pronounced over the last decade.

I understand that it was only cold versus the 1991-2020 climo period. I cited that this was as cold as 2003-2004??? What I said was this was the first below average temp season that also feaured below average snowfall for my area since 2003-2004. You have misinterpreted what I said. I have agreed countless times that we are warming, so I'm not sure how we keep ending up back at this disconnect regarding that.

Regarding the second bolded content....that is fine, but I'm glad we both agree that we need to wait for more data. See, this is why your assertion that a benchmark snowstorm pattern is a thing of the past is a theory...its yet to be validated. I wasn't referring to your observations about the past as theory.

I do agree about the increasingly feast or famine aspect, but I also think we are still going to see some "feasts" that will slow any reduction in snowfall climo more than you imply. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

The ENSO thread on the main page has become an IMBY thread,it use to be a functional thread  or somewhat at one time,its annoying to me now to even look at,just saying.You should see as the MJO stalls out into the IO or progressive slowly,this should strenghten NINA into the upcoming weeks 

Well, most people discus ENSO within the context of winter, which is obviously going to conjure about some dialogue about each person's geographically oriented perspective. I don't feel as though that precludes the thread from being functional, as there is a wealth of great information in here. You can always block those who engage in IMBY rhetortic, but be advised you will probably be essentially relegated to self dialogue, which is never ideal assuming sound mental health.

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Regarding the second bolded content....that is fine, but I'm glad we both agree that we need to wait for more data. See, this is why your assertion that a benchmark snowstorm pattern is a thing of the past is a theory...it’s yet to be validated. I wasn't referring to your observations about the past as theory.

I never said that a benchmark snowstorm pattern was a thing of the past. But at least around NYC Metro, it’s been a prerequisite for an average to above average snowfall season since the mid 90s.

From the early 60s to early 90s we were able to get close to average without having to rely exclusively on benchmark or KU NESIS snowstorm events. So in that colder climate we could still get closer to average with a bunch of smaller or moderate events. This hasn’t been the case for 30 years now.

I don’t claim to know how long this cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track pattern which has dominated since 18-19 will last. Just that we will need a return to benchmark tracks in coming seasons in order to reach average to above average snowfall again.

But at the same time, I think it’s unlikely that we will see a repeat of the 9 year historic benchmark KU tracks that dominated from 09-10 to 17-18. It’s funny that even in the one low snowfall year of 11-12, we still managed an historic October snowstorm. So every year had some type of record snowstorm. 

My hope is that we can see some return to benchmark tracks in the future even if it turns out to be well off the pace we saw in the 2010s. Unfortunately, we don’t have multiyear storm track guidance tools yet. So we have to wait until the winter actually starts to see what the storm tracks look like. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I never said that a benchmark snowstorm pattern was a thing of the past. But at least around NYC Metro, it’s been a prerequisite for an average to above average snowfall season since the mid 90s.

From the early 60s to early 90s we were able to get close to average without having to rely exclusively on benchmark or KU NESIS snowstorm events. So in that colder climate we could still get closer to average with a bunch of smaller or moderate events. This hasn’t been the case for 30 years now.

I don’t claim to know how long this cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track pattern which has dominated since 18-19 will last. Just that we will need a return to benchmark tracks in coming seasons in order to reach average to above average snowfall again.

But at the same time, I think it’s unlikely that we will see a repeat of the 9 year historic benchmark KU tracks that dominated from 09-10 to 17-18. It’s funny that even in the one low snowfall year of 11-12, we still managed an historic October snowstorm. So every year had some type of record snowstorm. 

My hope is that we can see some return to benchmark tracks in the future even if it turns out to be well off the pace we saw in the 2010s. Unfortunately, we don’t have multiyear storm track guidance tools yet. So we have to wait until the winter actually starts to see what the storm tracks look like. 

Fair enough....historic benchmark snowstorm patterns, rather. I agree with you on the lack of smaller events....even up here, we have noted the dearth of clippers, etc. That plays into the "increased feast" or famine aspect. Not sure I agree that we won't see another historic stretch like that agian, though....especially considering the increased propensity for some of these patterns to get "stuck".

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

First of all, Boston didn’t have a historically cold winter this year. 31.6° was as close to the 1981-2010 average of 31.8° that you can get. The only reason you finished with a small cold departure was due to the 1991-2020 normals being warmer at 32.5°. This wasn't as cold as the 03-04 winter that you cited that you cited was.

The reason for the below average snowfall for your area was a continuation of the warmer storm tracks which have been the pattern since 18-19. The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has lead to storms cutting to the Great Lakes, others hugging the coast or tracking just inland leading to mixed precipitation events, and tracks getting suppressed too far south due to kicker troughs entering the West as lows are exiting the East Coast. So benchmark storm tracks have been few and far between since 18-19. 

My analysis isn’t based on theory since I have 60 years of snowfall data around NYC Metro to back it up. When NYC had a more stable and colder climate from the early 60s to early 90s, there were many median snowfall seasons in the 19” to 30” range. These middle of the road closer to average seasons have become few and far between over the last 30 years. They were replaced by most seasons coming much lower or much higher. So a shift to all or nothing type seasons. The last 7 seasons perfectly conformed to this 30 year snowfall distribution pattern. So did the 09-10 to 17-18 pattern.

As the winters and or storm tracks continue to warm, this will favor more of the below range type winters. But where we still have to wait for data is to know we will see more of a shift to benchmark storm tracks in the coming winters. This could bring the recent average back closer to 20” around NYC Metro or maybe above for a short interval before dropping back down under 20” with further winter warming. So it’s more of a timing issue rather than a directional one.

I will go on record saying that I don’t see a 09-10 to 17-18 historic benchmark snowstorm pattern returning in this much warmer climate. So I stand by may call that the 09-10 to 17-18 was the highest or peak snowfall over a 9 year range that we see around NYC Metro. My guess based on the data is that when we get into the 2030s, it will be clear that 18-19 was the beginning of the snowfall decline.

The recent 7 year snowfall average in NYC is 14.9” which is the lowest 7 year mean on record. All previous 7 year slumps were followed by big seasons of 50”+ and winter average temperatures near 32.0° or lower. This has not happened in over a decade with how warm the winters and storm tracks have become. So it will be a challenge meeting those conditions over the next several winters with the warming trend which has become more pronounced over the last decade.

I'd argue the historic benchmark snowfall pattern ended after the January 2016 snowstorm. If not for that snowstorm, then 2014-15 would have been a clear demarcation on when the snowy pattern ended. The pattern started to break down when the super el nino/cyclical +PDO pattern ended in 2016. Though we were still hitting snowfall averages in 16-17, 17-18, and even 18-19, we weren't getting the blockbuster snowstorms (like we were from 3/1/2009 to 1/2016). If not for the late Jan/early Feb 2021 snowstorm, NYC would be working on 9 straight years without a 10-inch snowstorm. PHL hasn't had an 8-inch snowstorm since the January 2016 snowstorm.