2024-2025 La Nina

[George001]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is my hope for next year....I think that would be a bullish signal for next winter.

Hopefully it stays weak if a Nino does develop.

[snowman19]

19 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Well, this changed on today’s Euro Weeklies as there are many members with a major SSW within Mar 9-14 (see below). This is easily the most bullish run this winter. If this occurs, this may mean a chilly April in much of the E US. This would jibe well with Joe D’Aleo’s research on its connection with +QBO/high solar and Ray’s feeling there’d likely be one late this winter.

@40/70 Benchmark

@snowman19

 

Here’s the 12Z Euro op 360 10 mb temp anomalies:

Maybe it’ll actually happen this time unlike the phantom, hyped 2018 major SSW/SPV split for mid-February. Even if one was to happen in mid-March, way too little, too late for winter. With the lag, we will be into astronomical spring by the time any of it has any effect. Besides that, it’s right around the time we normally have a “final warming” from the increased solar radiation as we move into spring. Color me unimpressed. As far as Joe D’Aleo, if it happens, it would seem he was definitely onto something, yes

[so_whats_happening]

Impressive changes in the PDO state over the last 3 months of SSTA. Here was the associated 500mb pattern during this time, certainly was not expecting a look like this. It is interesting to watch the PDO state try to change still unsure myself what exactly kicked off this chain reaction from constant ridging in the WPAC. In my opinion there still seems to be a disconnect between tropics and mid latitude that we would have such a strong -PDO during the Nino last year (strong/super) and to have not quite flipped but weakened significantly the -PDO with a Nina state. I still don't think we see a tri monthly below -.5 and this Nina may just get one blue numbering for trimonthly (NDJ), even I thought around -1.0 was possible this go around.

Lastly, it is interesting seeing the 500mb pattern across the Pacific with the more latitudinal shift just NW of Hawaii, I believe bluewave has touched on this several times. The waters across the Pacific must have just been far too warm a lot of it seemingly just shoved further east and south. It will be interesting to see if there are lagging effects of the Nina across the Atlantic this summer for the hurricane season.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The "bottom up" split earlier this month, on the 10th, certainly was a curveball that biased the month colder. But this would be more in line with my original expectation.

Isn't an early April snowstorm indicative of an el nino the following winter?

April 1982 and April 1997 are examples.

[GaWx]

48 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe it’ll actually happen this time unlike the phantom, hyped 2018 major SSW/SPV split for mid-February. Even if one was to happen in mid-March, way too little, too late for winter. With the lag, we will be into astronomical spring by the time any of it has any effect. Besides that, it’s right around the time we normally have a “final warming” from the increased solar radiation as we move into spring. Color me unimpressed. As far as Joe D’Aleo, if it happens, it would seem he was definitely onto something, yes

And GEFS still had no signal for a major SSW as of yest:

[LibertyBell]

On 2/21/2025 at 11:27 AM, snowman19 said:

Different year, same ending with him. He does this every single March for subscription money, attention, likes, views, follows and retweets. It’s like the movie Groundhog Day. He’s The Boy Who Cried Wolf, zero credibility anymore

I was wondering where all this excitement about a March snowstorm came from. Maybe it's just his subscribers lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Isn't an early April snowstorm indicative of an el nino the following winter?

April 1982 and April 1997 are examples.

Weenie folklore

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe it’ll actually happen this time unlike the phantom, hyped 2018 major SSW/SPV split for mid-February. Even if one was to happen in mid-March, way too little, too late for winter. With the lag, we will be into astronomical spring by the time any of it has any effect. Besides that, it’s right around the time we normally have a “final warming” from the increased solar radiation as we move into spring. Color me unimpressed. As far as Joe D’Aleo, if it happens, it would seem he was definitely onto something, yes

What was phantom?? That 2018 event verified quite strongly....this past February wasn't a SSW. The PV split definitely occurred, but it was born of lower level processes and definitely induced a cold pattern. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Hopefully it stays weak if a Nino does develop.

I think it would.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think referring to the PV split as a phantom event because it didn't result in an east coast blizzard is pretty silly.

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What was phantom?? That 2018 event verified quite strongly....this past February wasn't a SSW. The PV split definitely occurred, but it was born of lower level processes and definitely induced a cold pattern. 

You misread me. I’m referring to the one that didn’t happen this February. Remember all the hypesters saying it was going to be exactly like 2018?

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You misread me. I’m referring to the one that didn’t happen this February. Remember all the hypesters saying it was going to be exactly like 2018?

I was comparing the split to 2018 and it was similar in the sense that it funneled ample cold into the eastern US...as you know, some of these PV disruptions send all of the cold to the other side of the globe. The big NE snows not working out is more due to issues with the western ridge...nothing to do with the PV split.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

Hopefully it stays weak if a Nino does develop.

Thing is, the WPAC and the EPAC are so disjointed now. If any type of el nino forms in WPAC, even a weak one, the EPAC is almost certainly going to be in a strong el nino state.

For us to have a weak el nino, the WPAC probably has to be near ENSO neutral.

[roardog]

Considering we just had a super Nino last winter, I can’t believe we would have another strong Nino this soon.