2024-2025 La Nina

[brooklynwx99]

also, not sure what utility extended guidance like the CanSIPS has when we’re already in February. bordering on useless and that tweet was just engagement bait to piss off people that like snow. i’m sure it worked

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The last 3 0Z GFS runs have consistently progged a 60N zonal wind min of +13 on Feb 13th, which would be ~one week after the progged S-G Dipole max. We’ll see whether or not these progs actually progress to a major SSW on/near Feb 12th-13th.

 Regarding the progged 60-90N 10 mb temperature rise, today’s 0Z is the most impressive yet with a whopping 31K rise to +238K on Feb 14-5! Yesterday’s rose only to +231K and Jan 28-29 runs rose only to +227-228K:

Today’s update: 0Z GFS dips to +6 on 2/14 vs +13 on 2/13 for prior 3 runs and +28 on 1/28 run. GEPS dips to +16 vs +32 just yesterday! GEFS dips to +29 vs +39 yesterday.

 6 ens members go <0 vs none on 6 prior 0Zs.

 GFS maintained its impressive 30K warming. GEPS is 10K warmer vs yesterday:

 

 For those wondering about ability of GFS op to sniff out a major SSW ahead of ensembles, it did just that twice last 2 winters:

1. It was well ahead in forecasting 2/18/24:

 

2. It was also well ahead in predicting 2/16/23:

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

My god im sorry I even posted that there would be warming event in the strat. The twitter campaign out in full force cant even have a sensible discussion anymore.

The Twitter searches for "find me a tweet that goes with what I want" have really gotten obnoxious and cluttering in this thread.

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The Twitter searches for "find me a tweet that goes with what I want" have really gotten obnoxious and cluttering in this thread.

that tweet on the last page has the NMME from Jan 8th. like are you serious lmao what use does that have right now

[GaWx]

 This from 12Z GFS is likely depicting a major SSW on 2/14/25: keep in mind ability of op GFS to lead ensemble means twice (prior 2 Febs almost to the day) as per my prior post. If this really occurs, look for possibility of it leading to -NAO late in Feb (-AO already shown on GEFS mid-Feb) and potential of cold in E US late Feb through much of Mar with best chance if no preexisting strong RNA:

[LakePaste25]

The second half of February has some  potential with signs of blocking showing up. We will need to see how the pacific pattern evolves. 

[GaWx]

 The trend of the last 2 days of Euro Weeklies has gone strongly in the direction of a major SSW mid Feb:

From just 2 days ago: bottomed out only down to +40 mid-Feb with only 1 major SSW then:

 

Brand new: bottoms out +22 mid-Feb w/7 majors:

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

how much below normal and also actual mean temperature, was it below 30.0 there?

Mean temperature is 30.4F, or -2.5 departure of 1981-2010 normal.

[mitchnick]

Weeklies got noticeably cooler today erasing AN for Normal temps in 3 or 4 weeks (depending on where you live) out of the 6 week forecast.

How many times have we had to say "the weeklies have gotten cooler/colder this winter?" I've lost count. Lol

[brooklynwx99]

On 1/29/2025 at 4:36 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

so predictable. this is like the third time this has happened this winter

lol

[PhiEaglesfan712]

It got down to 9F in Boston this morning. Yep, winter is not going away any time soon. 

[mitchnick]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The trend of the last 2 days of Euro Weeklies has gone strongly in the direction of a major SSW mid Feb:

From just 2 days ago: bottomed out only down to +40 mid-Feb with only 1 major SSW then:

 

Brand new: bottoms out +22 mid-Feb w/7 majors:

Interestingly, 6z Gfs has the SSW around 300 hrs as prior runs with a second hit now showing up at the end of the run. That's some classic stuff right there.

[mitchnick]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1886063442882425254?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1886063442882425254|twgr^0bb5e4f76ac6697896ee49a8fa94161e93bae66a|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fwebberweather%2Fstatus%2F1886063442882425254%3Fs%3D4626t%3DJYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

[GaWx]

0Z GEFS mean based AO forecasts are often volatile. For midmonth they’re much lower today vs yesterday (not related to potential major SSW moving down into troposphere because there has to be lag after those to get there and this would be at ~same time):

Yesterday: lowest -1 on 2/14-5

Today: lowest -2 on 2/14-6

 

I’m anticipating big changes on some aspects/portions of today’s Euro Weeklies. We’ll see if that’s actually the case.

[GaWx]

Regarding the S-G Dipole that Simon Lee did a study of soon after the 2/12/2018 major SSW due to the perceived connection, the models haven’t at all backed off on it for this week:

 By the way the S-G Dipole is by definition often associated with a strong +NAO. Note the forecasted strong +NAO (~+1.7) for late week:

[snowman19]

50 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z GEFS mean based AO forecasts are often volatile. For midmonth they’re much lower today vs yesterday (not related to potential major SSW moving down into troposphere because there has to be lag after those to get there and this would be at ~same time):

Yesterday: lowest -1 on 2/14-5

Today: lowest -2 on 2/14-6

 

I’m anticipating big changes on some aspects/portions of today’s Euro Weeklies. We’ll see if that’s actually the case.

I just find twitter hilarious today. You have clueless people screaming to the heavens that the -NAO/-AO the EPS and GEFS are showing for mid-February is directly from the *potential* SSW. Just goes to show how much misinformation and wishcasting there is on that app

[GaWx]

55 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I just find twitter hilarious today. You have clueless people screaming to the heavens that the -NAO/-AO the EPS and GEFS are showing for mid-February is directly from the *potential* SSW. Just goes to show how much misinformation and wishcasting there is on that app

There’s a huge difference between the WxBell and CPC 0Z GEFS based NAO forecasts when in theory they should be about the same. So, algo/definition diffs:

@donsutherland1

WxBell 0Z Feb 2nd GEFS NAO: -2 on 2/14

CPC 0Z Feb 2nd GEFS NAO: +0.5 on 2/14

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

There’s a huge difference between the WxBell and CPC 0Z GEFS based NAO forecasts when in theory they should be about the same. So, algo/definition diffs:

WxBell 0Z Feb 2nd GEFS NAO:

 

@donsutherland1just posted in the NYC forum about this. The NAO forecasts aren’t matching up, like not even close

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

There’s a huge difference between the WxBell and CPC 0Z GEFS based NAO forecasts when in theory they should be about the same. So, algo/definition diffs:

@donsutherland1

WxBell 0Z Feb 2nd GEFS NAO: -2 on 2/14

CPC 0Z Feb 2nd GEFS NAO: +0.5 on 2/14

this is why I don't like using indices. when looking at the 500mb there's a pretty obvious -NAO on the GEFS

[donsutherland1]

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

There’s a huge difference between the WxBell and CPC 0Z GEFS based NAO forecasts when in theory they should be about the same. So, algo/definition diffs:

@donsutherland1

WxBell 0Z Feb 2nd GEFS NAO: -2 on 2/14

CPC 0Z Feb 2nd GEFS NAO: +0.5 on 2/14

If the WxBell (and also WxModels) GEFS idea is to verify, it would have to exceed the largest 14-day error over the last three months by easily the largest margin.

I am increasingly beginning to question whether it makes sense to continue to subscribe to paid plans with what appears to be a growing amount of questionable or incorrect data. I suspect the same programming flaw that produces the GEFS maps is also responsible for the low NAO values on the EPS and ECMWF. A negative NAO is plausible by mid-month (not assured), but a -2.000 or below value seems very unlikely.

[GaWx]

57 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is why I don't like using indices. when looking at the 500mb there's a pretty obvious -NAO on the GEFS

 I still love following the CPC based indices due to the invaluable daily history going back to 1950. That’s over 27K days! So, for me, CPC is gold standard, regardless. 

[GaWx]

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

If the WxBell (and also WxModels) GEFS idea is to verify, it would have to exceed the largest 14-day error over the last three months by easily the largest margin.

I am increasingly beginning to question whether it makes sense to continue to subscribe to paid plans with what appears to be a growing amount of questionable or incorrect data. I suspect the same programming flaw that produces the GEFS maps is also responsible for the low NAO values on the EPS and ECMWF. A negative NAO is plausible by mid-month (not assured), but a -2.000 or below value seems very unlikely.

Regarding the maps: I see WxBell as still being worth subscribing to because they do have lots of great maps. But it’s good to be aware that certain maps shouldn’t be taken as accurate. One of best examples: CFS 2m temperature anomalies. And now we can probably add NAO (WB and WxModels). There are very likely a good number of others, too.

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies 10 mb: still trending in direction of major SSW Feb 13-14:

Today’s mean down to +16 then vs +22, +28  and +39 on three prior days’ runs

 

Compare to run from just 3 days ago:

[michsnowfreak]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies 10 mb: still trending in direction of major SSW Feb 13-14:

Today’s mean down to +16 then vs +22, +28  and +39 on three prior days’ runs

 

Compare to run from just 3 days ago:

Massive change in the weeklies in terms of temps. Much colder look.

[GaWx]

54 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Massive change in the weeklies in terms of temps. Much colder look.

Indeed! Colder changes are on par with some of biggest changes I can recall seeing in just 24 hours. Three of the 6 weeks (last half Feb to early Mar) changed greatly. The largest change was for Feb 17-23:

Yesterday: 

 

Today:

[GaWx]

 

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

If the WxBell (and also WxModels) GEFS idea is to verify, it would have to exceed the largest 14-day error over the last three months by easily the largest margin.

I am increasingly beginning to question whether it makes sense to continue to subscribe to paid plans with what appears to be a growing amount of questionable or incorrect data. I suspect the same programming flaw that produces the GEFS maps is also responsible for the low NAO values on the EPS and ECMWF. A negative NAO is plausible by mid-month (not assured), but a -2.000 or below value seems very unlikely.

 Don and others,

  The following tweet from “Heinrich Leopold” tweeted at 3AM today) was posted a little earlier in the SE forum. I haven’t replied yet and just responded with a “confused” reaction.

 Since then I figured out what the Arctic record lows are (the chart below with the red line). This almost has to be showing stratospheric record lows (quite possibly at 10 mb), which I’d fully believe as I was just noting current near record high 60N zonal mean winds of 61 m/s at 10 mb.

Note his “natgas” tag by the way.

 I then saw this from him:

https://x.com/LeopoldHeinrich

It says he’s a chemical engineer rather than a met. This shows a lot of his tweets. I’ll let y’all read them and judge for yourselves.

———

Edit: I just replied in the SE forum about this being strat record low temps over the N Pole as opposed to record low surface temps in the Arctic. I mentioned that the warming (the red line) is a SSW of the record cold (for Feb 2nd) strat.

[George001]

21 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I just find twitter hilarious today. You have clueless people screaming to the heavens that the -NAO/-AO the EPS and GEFS are showing for mid-February is directly from the *potential* SSW. Just goes to show how much misinformation and wishcasting there is on that app

Often these SSWs don’t pan out as advertised for the east. Everything has to go right, the cold air goes to this side of the globe, it doesn’t split right on top of us leading to suppression, etc. At least for my area I would not be surprised at all if the next 2 weeks are the snowiest period of the winter, and it has absolutely nothing to do with any SSW or blocking. I’m pretty sure the NAO is supposed to be positive most of this coming period. 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

Often these SSWs don’t pan out as advertised for the east. Everything has to go right, the cold air goes to this side of the globe, it doesn’t split right on top of us leading to suppression, etc. At least for my area I would not be surprised at all if the next 2 weeks are the snowiest period of the winter, and it has absolutely nothing to do with any SSW or blocking. I’m pretty sure the NAO is supposed to be positive most of this coming period. 

the stratospheric impacts are likely going to lead to more stable blocking, IMO. it's all part of a bigger picture

[PhiEaglesfan712]

46 minutes ago, George001 said:

Often these SSWs don’t pan out as advertised for the east. Everything has to go right, the cold air goes to this side of the globe, it doesn’t split right on top of us leading to suppression, etc. At least for my area I would not be surprised at all if the next 2 weeks are the snowiest period of the winter, and it has absolutely nothing to do with any SSW or blocking. I’m pretty sure the NAO is supposed to be positive most of this coming period. 

ikr, we had SSWs in Feb 1979 and Dec 2001/Feb 2002. Before the 1979 SSW, we had record cold and snowy weather. Afterwards, the pattern turned a lot warmer for March 1979, which was well above average temperaturewise. 2001-02 ended up being a record warm winter despite the 2 SSWs.

[GaWx]

The last few GFS runs have reversed away from a mid-Feb major SSW (10 mb 60N zonal mean winds <0). For example, compare these two runs:

6Z 1/30 run: looked like a major SSW with an amazing split  with SPV obliterated

 

6Z 2/3 run: doesn’t even look close to a major SSW

 

 This is a crucial period in the forecasting and will need to revert back in the major SSW direction very soon to keep hope alive for one. As it is, I’m very disappointed to see these last few GFS runs.

Edit: 0Z Euro for same time: in between but closer to 6Z GFS and thus not even close to a major SSW