2024-2025 La Nina

[Maxim]

Seems like it could be a very warm spring granted there's no major SSW (which seems unlikely at this point?)

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

@40/70 Benchmark

Winter NAO should be near 0.0 after the 15-day period here

It might even average out positive for DJF. (I know you were saying NAO forecast was a bust, that's not really true because of this 2nd half of Winter +NAO surge). 

I just meant for January, not the season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 1/25/2025 at 7:37 AM, mitchnick said:

Subsurface warming building in the west and spreading east while the subsurface cold has peaked.

 

I could totally see a Modoki El Niño next year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The pattern this Winter in the Pacific was not bad for a west-based La Nina.. be happy that it was weak.. if we broke <-1.0c or lower for the large region it probably would have been different. 

Exactly....this is why I was telling people that the EMI only matters if the event is appreciably strong. I predicted a modest Modiki La Niña, like 2008-2009...but its not a death-knell at that intensity.

My work this year has been far from perfect, but better showing than the past couple of years.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could totally see a Modoki El Niño next year.

That would be awesome! I'd love to get another go of that with a better PDO if it continues to improve.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That would be awesome! I'd love to get another go of that with a better PDO if it continues to improve.

I would probably be much better north of you, but hopefully not too bad there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Agreed as of now. The following La Niña Feb/Mar had a late Feb/early Mar -AO/-NAO; all but one had a major SSW preceding it:

2023: Feb 16th

2018: Feb 12th

2006: Jan 21st (also had -AO/-NAO a month earlier)

2001: Feb 11th 

1971 in early to mid Mar: Jan 17th

1965: the exception of these 6 as there was no SSWE til Mar 23rd

 Whereas the models (extended EPS/GEFS) continue to show nothing, the combo of current high solar and +QBO suggests per Joe D’Aleo and confirmed by my own analysis that the chance for one is actually good. So, we’ll need to monitor. Of course if it occurs and it isn’t til, say, Mar, it would be unimportant for late Feb/early Mar due to lag.

 

Exactly my feeling heading into the season...but its not a slam dunk like 2018 and 2023.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would probably be much better north of you, but hopefully not too bad there.

Yeah I could be oversimplifying it (the details are above my pay grade!) but just based on history...our best winters down here have come during moderate-strong niños. I'm sure there are other details to consider (again, paygrade, lol)...but hey I'd happily roll with that 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I could be oversimplifying it (the details are above my pay grade!) but just based on history...our best winters down here have come during moderate-strong niños. I'm sure there are other details to consider (again, paygrade, lol)...but hey I'd happily roll with that 

I wouldn't expect it to be particularly strong.

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't expect it to be particularly strong.

Moderate would do just nicely 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

If we're going to have an el nino next year, then the la nina has to retreat very soon. Both 2005-06 and 2008-09 la ninas reached peak values in DJF.

2005-06 RONI

OND  2005 -0.50
NDJ  2005 -0.84
DJF  2006 -0.93
JFM  2006 -0.88
FMA  2006 -0.65
MAM  2006 -0.41

2008-09 RONI

OND  2008 -0.60
NDJ  2008 -0.79
DJF  2009 -0.89
JFM  2009 -0.84
FMA  2009 -0.67
MAM  2009 -0.42

10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That would be awesome! I'd love to get another go of that with a better PDO if it continues to improve.

If you want the PDO to change any time soon, it's probably best to root for a continued la nina or ENSO neutral season in 2025-26. A flip to el nino after a late peaking la nina has historically flipped back to strong la nina in year 2 (see 2007-08 and 2010-11). I'm almost sure we aren't going +PDO if we have a strong la nina in 2026-27.

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

Agreed as of now. The following La Niña Feb/Mar had a late Feb/early Mar -AO/-NAO; all but one had a major SSW preceding it:

2023: Feb 16th

2018: Feb 12th

2006: Jan 21st (also had -AO/-NAO a month earlier)

2001: Feb 11th 

1971 in early to mid Mar: Jan 17th

1965: the exception of these 6 as there was no SSWE til Mar 23rd

 Whereas the models (extended EPS/GEFS) continue to show nothing, the combo of current high solar and +QBO suggests per Joe D’Aleo and confirmed by my own analysis that the chance for one is actually good. So, we’ll need to monitor. Of course if it occurs and it isn’t til, say, Mar, it would be unimportant for late Feb/early Mar due to lag.

 

Wasn't there a snowstorm in April 1965 up here?

Note-- the following winter was a major el nino (1965-66) and late season blocking during la ninas is strongly linked to an el nino the following winter.

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If we're going to have an el nino next year, then the la nina has to retreat very soon. Both 2005-06 and 2008-09 la ninas reached peak values in DJF.

2005-06 RONI

OND  2005 -0.50
NDJ  2005 -0.84
DJF  2006 -0.93
JFM  2006 -0.88
FMA  2006 -0.65
MAM  2006 -0.41

2008-09 RONI

OND  2008 -0.60
NDJ  2008 -0.79
DJF  2009 -0.89
JFM  2009 -0.84
FMA  2009 -0.67
MAM  2009 -0.42

If you want the PDO to change any time soon, it's probably best to root for a continued la nina or ENSO neutral season in 2025-26. A flip to el nino after a late peaking la nina has historically flipped back to strong la nina in year 2 (see 2007-08 and 2010-11). I'm almost sure we aren't going +PDO if we have a strong la nina in 2026-27.

la ninas after el ninos are excellent for cold and snow usually.

[snowman19]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

Agreed as of now. The following La Niña Feb/Mar had a late Feb/early Mar -AO/-NAO; all but one had a major SSW preceding it:

2023: Feb 16th

2018: Feb 12th

2006: Jan 21st (also had -AO/-NAO a month earlier)

2001: Feb 11th 

1971 in early to mid Mar: Jan 17th

1965: the exception of these 6 as there was no SSWE til Mar 23rd

 Whereas the models (extended EPS/GEFS) continue to show nothing, the combo of current high solar and +QBO suggests per Joe D’Aleo and confirmed by my own analysis that the chance for one is actually good. So, we’ll need to monitor. Of course if it occurs and it isn’t til, say, Mar, it would be unimportant for late Feb/early Mar due to lag.

 

Agree about the -ENSO/+QBO/solar max evolution. At least through mid-February a major SSWE seems very unlikely. If one were to occur at the beginning of March, with the lag, we would be looking at late March (spring) before it would downwell enough to affect the tropopause….too late

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Wasn't there a snowstorm in April 1965 up here?

Note-- the following winter was a major el nino (1965-66) and late season blocking during la ninas is strongly linked to an el nino the following winter.

Yes: 4/2/1965 had 1.2” at NYC. Other metro stations were similar.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Agree about the -ENSO/+QBO/solar max evolution. At least through mid-February a major SSWE seems very unlikely. If one were to occur at the beginning of March, with the lag, we would be looking at late March (spring) before it would downwell enough to affect the tropopause….too late

MJO will bring up late March / early April analogs for snowstorms.

There is one coming out of a la nina that comes to mind..... April Fools Day 1997.

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

MJO will bring up late March / early April analogs for snowstorms.

There is one coming out of a la nina that comes to mind..... April Fools Day 1997.

 

 

I don't think we got an official la nina in 1996-97. 1995-96 was the la nina, which of course was an epic snow season. 1996 also had snow events in March and early April.

That said, those were +PDO years, and neither year is good analog for this year. Of course, in spring 1997 brought the super el nino that ended up being the finale of the +PDO era.

[snowman19]

@Bluewave Big -AAM regime

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Yeah we really flipped from +AAM earlier in the Winter to -AAM now. This is a completely different pattern happening: 12z GFS ensembles go wild with RNA in the long range. It's a brutal pattern for snow in the Northeast with +NAO and -PNA, maybe until mid-February.. 

[LakePaste25]

On a positive note, the upcoming pattern will provide potential relief to the drought-stricken portions of the region.

 

[Maxim]

On 1/24/2025 at 7:18 PM, MJO812 said:

Bust

Edit: dummy doesn't even understand why I'm referring to it as a bust and likes my post, lol

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

On a positive note, the upcoming pattern will provide potential relief to the drought-stricken portions of the region.

 

If those amounts are all that is realized over the next 15 days - not good.

[roardog]

37 minutes ago, MANDA said:

If those amounts are all that is realized over the next 15 days - not good.

Those amounts are anomalies not actual amounts.

[MANDA]

51 minutes ago, roardog said:

Those amounts are anomalies not actual amounts.

Sorry, mistake.  Didn't read the map title.  Scrolling through too fast.

Even so, pretty close to normal and we need more than normal to erase the departures we currently have. 

Having said that I will take anything at this point.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This is a big time -AAM, which means the pattern has staying power

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, MANDA said:

Sorry, mistake.  Didn't read the map title.  Scrolling through too fast.

Even so, pretty close to normal and we need more than normal to erase the departures we currently have. 

Having said that I will take anything at this point.

but what exactly is *normal*? we have been anomalously wet for many decades and I would argue the dryness is a correction to normal rainfall for NYC which is around 40 inches per year.  We are not the Gulf Coast and should not be getting 50 inch rainfall years.

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark Remember back at the beginning of November when certain people said the La Niña was dead? Even suggesting that we were going to go warm-neutral? Even for a late bloomer Niña, this is ridiculous. It’s still going to the strengthening and peak in February
 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark Remember back at the beginning of November when certain people said the La Niña was dead? Even suggesting that we were going to go warm-neutral? Even for a late bloomer Niña, this is ridiculous. It’s still going to the strengthening and peak in February
 

What if it keeps strengthening and peaks in March? Would that mean a really bad severe wx season?