2024-2025 La Nina

[Stormchaserchuck1]

15 hours ago, raindancewx said:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/wp.data

Looks like it already flipped? 

I don't think the WPO-EPO is really going to flip until the PDO flips. Maybe it will lead it though? History says we should be near the time-shift of peaking/declining PDO phase. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

High pressure patterns in the SW, US also lead +EPO/WPO. 

So far it looks like this Summer is going to feature High pressure there. That has been the trend since about 1995.. 

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have no idea where this perception comes from. He is on a short list of "must reads" every season and there was plenty of talk that he had an unfavorable outlook yet again last fall. I'm not sure whether you have amnesia or what, but I along with some others had countless debates with him about how the forcing would not act like an east-based super el Nino....which was correct, but he was right that it would not matter.

I'm not sure on which planet his opinion was "deemphasized"....nor am I sure who forecasted a colder than average winter or one with above average snowfall?? I saw some forecasts that had near normal snowfall, incluyding my own, but none were particularly robust.

1. My perception that Raindance’s forecast last winter was “sort of deemphasized” can best be illustrated by the lack of replies in his winter forecast thread:

  There was only a pretty small % of active members posting (including my post) during the subsequent 2 weeks (through Oct 25) followed by not even a single post in Nov-Feb! Rightly or wrongly, that gave me the impression that there was a deemphasis of sorts. If he had had a cold E US forecast, I bet there would have been many more posts there than the 17 replies.

  I mentioned: “bias resulting from desires for a cold winter. I’m also vulnerable due to the same desire.”

 When I said this, I wasn’t talking about member forecasts. I was talking about member desires and was thinking that that lead to limited activity in Raindance’s thread.

2. I know you and others (including myself) have a lot of respect for Raindance’s forecast related contributions, especially because of the enormous amount of detail he backs his forecasts up with and how well he has done in recent years. I also realize you and others have his forecasts as “must reads”. I’m not debating that. You’ve been quite vocal about it.

  3. Also, I agree with you about the lack of cold/snowy member forecasts. Yes, the most bullish forecasts/hopes were mainly for NN temps/snow with mild/lack of snow in Dec being balanced out via a transition to cold/snowy by Feb. But even these were significantly colder and snowier than Raindance’s. There was a lot of excitement about Feb potential (me included) vs Raindance not showing that. The Euro and other models were fostering this as many runs had beautiful H5 maps in Jan/Feb! They busted horribly!

4. @snowman19@George001, and I think @Stormchaserchuck1were also mild pretty much from the start. Kudos to them. Snowman19 got numerous weenies, especially when he posted Paul Roundy tweets. George also got some. But alas, they were pretty much right after all!

5. I have an enormous amount of respect for your forecast related contributions! I put Raindance, Griteater (though I don’t know if he did a formal forecast last winter), and yourself at the top as far as member preparation/time put into them and details shown to back them up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. My perception that Raindance’s forecast last winter was “sort of deemphasized” can best be illustrated by the lack of replies in his winter forecast thread:

  There was only a pretty small % of active members posting (including my post) during the subsequent 2 weeks (through Oct 25) followed by not even a single post in Nov-Feb! Rightly or wrongly, that gave me the impression that there was a deemphasize of sorts. If he had had a cold E US forecast, I bet there would have been many more posts there than the 17 replies.

  I mentioned: “bias resulting from desires for a cold winter. I’m also vulnerable due to the same desire.”

 When I said this, I wasn’t talking about member forecasts. I was talking about member desires and was thinking that that lead to limited activity in Raindance’s thread.

2. I know you and others (including myself) have a lot of respect for Raindance’s forecast related contributions, especially because of the enormous amount of detail he backs his forecasts up with and how well he has done in recent years. I also realize you and others have his forecasts as “must reads”. I’m not debating that. You’ve been quite vocal about it.

  3. Also, I agree with you about the lack of cold/snowy member forecasts. Yes, the most bullish forecasts/hopes were mainly for NN temps/snow with mild/lack of snow in Dec being balanced out via a transition to cold/snowy by Feb. But even these were significantly colder and snowier than Raindance’s. There was a lot of excitement about Feb potential (me included) vs Raindance not showing that. The Euro and other models were fostering this as many runs had beautiful H5 maps in Jan/Feb! They busted horribly!

4. Snowman19, George001, and I think Chuck were also mild pretty much from the start. Kudos to them. Snowman19 got numerous weenies, especially when he posted Paul Roundy tweets. George also got some. But alas, they were pretty much right after all!

5. I have an enormous amount of respect for your forecast related contributions! I put Raindance, Griteater (though I don’t know if he did a formal forecast last winter), and yourself at the top as far as member preparation/time put into them and details shown to back them up.

My opinion on why that is the case is two things:

1) You are right that people post most frequently about weather that is perceived as being intresting, which mild winters are not.

2) His posting style is very confrontational and not very welcoming...most of his interactions with others have a very incedinary, condescending undertone that invites conflict. People are turned off by that and try to avoid it...conflict is exhuasting and produces negative energy. And I know he doesn't care what people on an internet forum think of him, but it is what it is.

Don't forget, I think the winter outlook thread with the  most replies I have ever seen was @Stormchaserchuck1's "This will be the warmest winter on record" thread on Eastern back in the fall of 2006. Attitude has a lot to do with it....turn people off, and your work will be overlooked more because interaction with the author is viewed as a chore rather than purely an opportunity for enlightenment via a sharing of thoughts.

[George001]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just FYI....what is equally reprehensible and inimical to the productive dialogue that fosters learning is assigning an emotional bias to every forecast effort that verifies too cold and/or snowy. That detracts just as much as any biased forecast in and of itself. Its not advisable to impugn the efforts of others like that when there is clearly defined logic and ratioanle for why the forecast did not work out. When we have a mammoth marine heat wave working in concert with the general background GW signal to produce an unprecedented magnitude of warmth spanning an entire decade that is going to cause most seasonal forecast efforts to exhibit a cold/snowy bias in the aggregate, is it not??

Raindance has been the best and even he would admit that he hasn't been quite warm enough. I'm not even sure @bluewave, who has had a great handle on this, expected this magnitude of warmth. I think we need to cut people some slack on the cold/snow bias crap.

As someone who is extremely critical of the cold/snowy bias on many east coast winter forecasts, you are correct about last year. To put things in perspective, roughly 95% of winters fall inside of 2 standard deviations of normal. Last winter was not one of those winters. Climate change does skew things for sure, but last winter was the perfect storm of horrible pattern + bad luck + AGW. Everything aligned perfectly to deliver one of the mildest and least snowy winters recorded over the past 200 or so years. There is just no way to anticipate something THAT anomalous.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, George001 said:

As someone who is extremely critical of the cold/snowy bias on many east coast winter forecasts, you are correct about last year. To put things in perspective, roughly 95% of winters fall inside of 2 standard deviations of normal. Last winter was not one of those winters. Climate change does skew things for sure, but last winter was the perfect storm of horrible pattern + bad luck + AGW. Everything aligned perfectly to deliver one of the mildest and least snowy winters recorded over the past 200 or so years. There is just no way to anticipate something THAT anomalous.

Absolutely..well said.  Its important to acknowledge that there was some bad luck involved, too. As fleeting and few and far between as they were, we had some explosive windows that went for not.

[snowman19]

Although the -PDO and +AMO are the 2 main drivers right now and will continue to be, ENSO is going to become the 3rd driver within a few months. Everything continues to point to a very significant La Niña despite what the warm biased Euro may be showing. I’m becoming more confident this ends up being a moderate to strong Niña event

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Although the -PDO and +AMO are the 2 main drivers right now and will continue to be, ENSO is going to become the 3rd driver within a few months. Everything continues to point to a very significant La Niña despite what the warm biased Euro may be showing. I’m becoming more confident this ends up being a moderate to strong Niña event
 

 In addition to Euro warm bias (though not nearly as bad as BoM was last year), folks shouldn't forget that model forecasted ONI needs to be reduced a good bit to best estimate where RONI will be.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely..well said.  Its important to acknowledge that there was some bad luck involved, too. As fleeting and few and far between as they were, we had some explosive windows that went for not.

last winter also could have ended much differently if that mid-Feb storm did indeed produce that huge wave breaking -NAO that was advertised by every model at range. easy to forget that as well... that was a complete modeling disaster. probably the worst i've seen

[snowman19]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 In addition to Euro warm bias (though not nearly as bad as BoM was last year), folks shouldn't forget that model forecasted ONI needs to be reduced a good bit to best estimate where RONI will be.

As of right now, I see these being the main drivers going into winter: -PDO, La Niña, +AMO, solar, +QBO, AGW, any *possible* volcanic effects on the stratosphere TBD. With the IOD being neutral, I don’t see it being as big of a player as it has been the last few years. That said, if the IOD does go negative this fall (and I think it will), that will only favor the MJO in phases 4-7 even more, as if it needs any help staying in those phases semi permanently anyway. -IOD/Nina favors Maritime Continent and eastern IO forcing 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 In addition to Euro warm bias (though not nearly as bad as BoM was last year), folks shouldn't forget that model forecasted ONI needs to be reduced a good bit to best estimate where RONI will be.

I agree with this, but the majority of models are weak right now...sure, EURO is among the weakest and likely too weak, but the moderate guidance are outliers.

[raindancewx]

My forecasts actually seem to be getting more traction each year. I don't have a website, a Facebook, or anything like that. It's just one link posted here and on Twitter, but I get several thousand reads, or at least views now.

I try not to post on here more than 1-3 times per day, as I consider it a waste of time in most respects. So I think the low interactions when I post my forecasts are more about me not posting too much than anything else.

I could easily see the US (lower 48 anyway) average +3 to +10 for the winter, with a cold spot from Billings to San Francisco, but I really have no idea yet. It's too early. The global upper level pattern that matches with SSTs for JJA or JAS will be pretty telling. That combo almost always rolls forward correctly.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

If I had to venture a guess for the upcoming Winter right now, it would look like this. https://ibb.co/4PqH6ZK

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

My forecasts actually seem to be getting more traction each year. I don't have a website, a Facebook, or anything like that. It's just one link posted here and on Twitter, but I get several thousand reads, or at least views now.

I try not to post on here more than 1-3 times per day, as I consider it a waste of time in most respects. So I think the low interactions when I post my forecasts are more about me not posting too much than anything else.

I could easily see the US (lower 48 anyway) average +3 to +10 for the winter, with a cold spot from Billings to San Francisco, but I really have no idea yet. It's too early. The global upper level pattern that matches with SSTs for JJA or JAS will be pretty telling. That combo almost always rolls forward correctly.

I think you have done great the last 2 years, but don't fall in the trap of thinking "this is X std's above normal so it has to even out". I think there is a very clear reason for the +WPO of late, being the La Nina state in the Pacific since about 1998 (leading to -PDO conditions). The -WPO/-EPO Winters have been more +pdo during that time.  The real trend is how the RNA of late has been gaining steam, part of that being how we saw a N. Pacific High most of the time in a Strong El Nino this past Winter, which only happened in 65-66 and 72-73, at the peak of that -pdo cycle. It does open the door for -NAO potential though, I think.  You were the only that originally pointed out the PDO has a higher correlation:

https://ibb.co/hWtdb2W +0.6 correlation over the Deep South!

https://ibb.co/kyH3kzd +0.35 peak correlation

[so_whats_happening]

Is it possible the reduction of sulfur based fuels are finally coming home to roost? China stopped using heavily sulfur based fuels back in 2017 so it is very possible it will start to play catch up to the extreme levels we have seen in the Atlantic and continually grow with time. Time will tell of course.

This will largely create even more disconnect between the tropics and subtropics over time and could very well start to show a lower overall named storm/ hurricane/typhoon count as we go through time as the atmosphere tries to rebalance itself out in this new regime. Just some food for thought while things are still kind of early for the season.

[so_whats_happening]

Anyway here is a little update on the subsurface for the developing La Nina. Just about a months worth of visuals spanning about 4 days in between images. Ill continue this as we go into fall and sporadically update.

Also a look a hovmollers with finally a weak moving MJO wave.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think you have done great the last 2 years, but don't fall in the trap of thinking "this is X std's above normal so it has to even out". I think there is a very clear reason for the +WPO of late, being the La Nina state in the Pacific since about 1998 (leading to -PDO conditions). The -WPO/-EPO Winters have been more +pdo during that time.  The real trend is how the RNA of late has been gaining steam, part of that being how we saw a N. Pacific High most of the time in a Strong El Nino this past Winter, which only happened in 65-66 and 72-73, at the peak of that -pdo cycle. It does open the door for -NAO potential though, I think.  You were the only that originally pointed out the PDO has a higher correlation:

https://ibb.co/hWtdb2W +0.6 correlation over the Deep South!

https://ibb.co/kyH3kzd +0.35 peak correlation

1965-1966 was my main analog last year, but the sensible result was worlds different. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I know 2024-25 is not likely going to be an ENSO neutral season (we haven't really had a true one since 2013-14), but I've noticed that since 1950, we've pretty much come out of every ENSO neutral phase with an el nino, and never a la nina. (If you don't count 2019-20 as an ENSO neutral season, in which a stubborn weak el nino refused to dissipate, then the last time we exited an ENSO neutral phase with a la nina was in 1949.) Is there a reason why ENSO neutral phases generally lead to el ninos, or is this just a coincidence?

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I know 2024-25 is not likely going to be an ENSO neutral season (we haven't really had a true one since 2013-14), but I've noticed that since 1950, we've pretty much come out of every ENSO neutral phase with an el nino, and never a la nina. (If you don't count 2019-20 as an ENSO neutral season, in which a stubborn weak el nino refused to dissipate, then the last time we exited an ENSO neutral phase with a la nina was in 1949.) Is there a reason why ENSO neutral phases generally lead to el ninos, or is this just a coincidence?

 Interesting and great observation! You got me curious. So, I looked back to 1850-1950 via Eric Webb’s table. I found that it was a bit different. For that period, I counted after neutral periods ended 12 of 21 (57%) went to El Niño and 9 of 21 (43%) went to La Niña. So, whereas El Niño was somewhat more frequent, it wasn’t nearly like the one-sidedness of 1950+. For 1950+, I count 12 of 13 neutral periods (92%) that went to El Niño after ending and 1 of 13 (8%) that went to La Niña after ending. 

 So, for 1850-present, I count 24 of 34 neutral periods (71%) that went to El Niño and 10 of 34 (29%) that went to La Niña. Thus, when looking at the full 174 year period, there still does appear to be a pretty good favoring of El Niño after neutral periods end.

 Next I looked at only multi-year long neutral periods. For 1950+, 6 of 6 (100%) went to El Niño. For 1850-1950, 9 of 14 (64%) went to El Niño vs 5 of 14 (36%) going to La Niña. Thus, after 1850-present multi-year neutral periods, 15 of 20 (75%) went to El Niño and 5 of 20 (25%) went to La Niña. That’s pretty significant and thus tells me there really MAY be an inherent favoring of going to El Niño rather than La Niña at the end of multi-year neutral periods as opposed to that being a mere coincidence.

 So, for strictly single year long neutral periods for 1950+, 6 of 7 (86%) went to El Niño vs 1 of 7 (14%) going to La Niña. But for 1850-1950 I count only 3 of 7 (43%) that went to El Niño vs 4 of 7 (57%) going to La Niña. Thus for 1850-present for strictly single year long neutral, I count 9 of 14 (64%) going to El Niño and 5 of 14 (36%) going to La Niña. This all tells me there’s more of a chance that the single year neutrals going to El Niño more often have been coincidental even though that’s not 100% conclusive.

 If we assume that going to El Nino after a multi-year neutral period is truly favored over going to La Niña, does anyone have a theory as to why that would be the case?

[bluewave]

On 6/6/2024 at 8:41 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

When we have a mammoth marine heat wave working in concert with the general background GW signal to produce an unprecedented magnitude of warmth spanning an entire decade

While we like to focus on the historic 9 warmer to record winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño here in the Northeast, the extreme winter warmth across other CONUS regions has also been unprecedented. Before this period, having near a +10 monthly departure for a U.S. climate station would be a rare to uncommon event. We can remember the double digit departure months occurring much less frequently in the past. January 2006 in the Upper Midwest and March 2012 come to mind. Now these very high monthly winter departures have been happening yearly with multiple months in the same winter recording such departures. We have had a remarkable 11 winter months across varying ENSO states since December 2015 meeting this criteria for one or more climate stations. It’s even more impressive to see these monthly temperature departures occurring in the warmest climate normals period.

 

Dec…2015….NYC….+13.3

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

While we like to focus on the historic 9 warmer to record winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño here in the Northeast, the extreme winter warmth across other CONUS regions has also been unprecedented. Before this period, having near a +10 monthly departure for a U.S. climate station would be a rare to uncommon event. We can remember the double digit departure months occurring much less frequently in the past. January 2006 in the Upper Midwest and March 2012 come to mind. Now these very high monthly winter departures have been happening yearly with multiple months in the same winter recording such departures. We have had a remarkable 11 winter months across varying ENSO states since December 2015 meeting this criteria for one or more climate stations. It’s even more impressive to see these monthly temperature departures occurring in the warmest climate normals period.

 

Dec…2015….NYC….+13.3

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

Before my time, but it seems like we are into the throws of a 1979-1993 type of rut with bad winters. Only difference between now and then is that 13+ year period was actually cold, just had way below average snow. This one is an all out torch with way below average snow

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Before my time, but it seems like we are into the throws of a 1979-1993 type of rut with bad winters. Only difference between now and then is that 13+ year period was actually cold, just had way below average snow. This one is an all out torch with way below average snow

I agree we are in a "rut" period akin to the 80's, only adjusted warmer due to CC....it's also a different type of "rut", since that was a +PDO period....often those winters were done in by a lack of high latitude blocking, but this period has been marked by an extra tropical Pacific regime so hostile that it has largely negated any episodes of blocking, which has become easier to do given the warmer climate.

[snowman19]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree we are in a "rut" period akin to the 80's, only adjusted warmer due to CC....it's also a different type of "rut", since that was a +PDO period....often those winters were done in by a lack of high latitude blocking, but this period has been marked by an extra tropical Pacific regime so hostile that it has largely negated any episodes of blocking, which has become easier to do given the warmer climate.

Just law of averages, eventually this rut is going to break, however, if I’m a betting man, this coming winter isn’t going to be the one that’s going to do it

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just law of averages, eventually this rut is going to break, however, if I’m a betting man, this coming winter isn’t going to be the one that’s going to do it

I agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I feel like it will break unexpectedly before the end of the decade, but not this coming season.

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like it will break unexpectedly before the end of the decade, but not this coming season.

I’m hopeful for the winter after this next one. I’m hoping El Niño will return in 2025-6. The Hunga Tonga volcano may favor a multi-year El Niño within 2025-9 per a paper I’ve linked the forum to. If so, maybe the PDO would finally go back to positive with the WPAC perhaps finally cooling down. If we get that combo, I could see 2025-6 being much colder than recent winters for much of the E US. 2025-6 would probably also have a falling -QBO, which during El Niño would favor a major SSW. Also fwiw, it would be the 2nd winter after the most recent major land based volcano eruption of earlier this year. Those winters tend to be somewhat cooler than the prior winter.

 Then as we approach the next solar min, I could see a -NAO driven winter either in 2028-9 or more likely in 2029-30. Coincidence or not, all six -NAO winters since 1979-80 have been with sunspots under 35 and within two years of a minimum. So, perhaps??

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Before my time, but it seems like we are into the throws of a 1979-1993 type of rut with bad winters. Only difference between now and then is that 13+ year period was actually cold, just had way below average snow. This one is an all out torch with way below average snow

These 11 double digit positive temperature departure months since December 2015 have presented significant forecast challenges for the meteorological community. I can remember looking at the EPS weekly forecast for December 2015 in late November and seeing no indication of the historic warmth which was to follow. The model basically had a stock looking El Niño composite for December. Vanilla above normal temperatures  but nothing too extreme. Then we wound up with the +13.3 and 70° warmth later in the month around NYC with people wearing shorts.The model completely missed the record MJO 4-7 activity which interacted with the El Niño forcing to create that epic standing wave. It had that same stock El Niño composite looks for last winter which I was skeptical of based on past performance. 

For all these months near and over +10, I am not aware of any modeled or forecaster issued long range forecasts indicating the month would see such high departures. Temperatures this warm usually result in near to the warmest month on record for the season at locations in the maximum departure zones. This is why most of the seasonal forecasts have been underestimating the winter warmth which has occurred since 15-16. Pointing this out is in no way meant to disparage other forecasts. It’s just meant to point out the challenges in making winter forecasts over this much warmer period. My approach has been to look at the long range forecasts like last December and point out that the models were likely underestimating the warmth. I started posting about the warmer risks to the seasonal forecast than the models were showing last fall. Since we have seen the models miss the longer range MJO 4-7 forcing and then play catch up as we got closer in to the numerous events. Even knowing this, I wasn’t sure exactly how high the departures would go last winter. I was thinking that December was going to beat expectations based on the past MJO 4-7 activity with the record WPAC warm pool. But it took me until near the end of first week of December to go for +10 or greater departures along the Northern Tier. So trying to pinpoint monthly departures this high a few weeks to months before that months starts is very challenging. It’s probably why these extreme departures aren’t able to be correctly forecast in long range and seasonal forecasts. 

[GaWx]

On 6/1/2024 at 2:03 PM, GaWx said:

Now look at the PDO: -3.04

Wow, what a two day rise of the WCS PDO! It rose ~0.6, the fastest two day increase on this chart.  But this is likely just a dead-cat bounce reaction to the prior two week very steep drop. Even after this bounce, it is still very low (at -2.26) and the corresponding NOAA PDA is probably still down at ~-3 to -3.5.

 

[snowman19]

On 6/6/2024 at 4:08 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree with this, but the majority of models are weak right now...sure, EURO is among the weakest and likely too weak, but the moderate guidance are outliers.

After this past winter with the epic fail of the models for February, the horrible MJO projections, I take them with a huge grain of salt. Even last year we had models that failed to predict the actual trimonthly strength of the Nino, both too warm and too cold. Looking at real time observations and antecedent conditions, surface and subsurface temps, PDO, PMM, trade winds, IOD, tropical instability waves, past ENSO transitions, RONI, etc., this leads me to still believe we see at least a moderate La Niña event despite what the models may be showing in their month to month runs. I see no reason to change that guess right now

[Rtd208]

Update on La Niña from DT (WxRisk).