2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, George001 said:

My concern is that the dry pattern remains on guidance even as we go from deep cold to more seasonal temps. My hope was that we would see the SE ridge flex, shift the storm track north and get hit fairly hard late Jan into Feb. but guidance doesn’t show that happening. It more goes from cold and dry to seasonal and dry.

I really don't care at this point...not sure whether or not you've noticed, but I have essentially checked out. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Ray I thought you said that you believe the next two seasons will be less snowy because of the lag effect from the solar max?

Then again, it can't get less snowier than now, so there's no way to go but up.

 

No...I said the AO/NAO will probably be positive, which is great for NE when coupled with a favorable Pacific.

[snowman19]

February on track for a canonical Niña response. Very well coupled ocean-atmosphere system going into February

[snowman19]

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The midwest/upper midwest is WELL below normal to date west of the Lakes. It was -20° in Rochester, MN this week with no snow on the ground. 

Here in MI outside the lake snowbelt it's dry and cold with lots of flakes and dusters but no big storm. It's wild to think about it...Detroit has seen snow fall on 21 of the first 23 days of January, but the month to date snowfall is 8.6" and 14.0" on the season (normal to date is 21"). As a winter lover, it's great to see the mood flakes, the local lakes thick with ice, and a constant albeit not deep snowcover. But the lack of anything meaningful starts to really grind on you as we hit mid winter. My eyes are glued to the window for the first flakes of Oct/Nov, but when they become a daily occurrence & you know that any storms are hundreds if not thousands of miles away, it's not quite the same. I will gladly take the gamble to change up the pattern, even if we have to flirt with rainers and get thaws in order to increase the chance of some good snowstorms.

IF this pattern were producing more clippers it would be a completely different story. But it's not.

It sounds a lot like here.  We're having our driest January on record and it's not even close.  I saw that Omaha Nebraska has even less snow than NYC does.

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

February on track for a canonical Niña response. Very well coupled ocean-atmosphere system going into February
 

So were December and January, except January has been the driest one on record here.  That's the fly in the ointment.  It doesn't matter if it's cold or not, the dryness will likely continue.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No...I said the AO/NAO will probably be positive, which is great for NE when coupled with a favorable Pacific.

+PNA is more important for us than the NAO that's for sure.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I really don't care at this point...not sure whether or not you've noticed, but I have essentially checked out. 

Yes, I feel the same way, if it's sunny and nice, we go to spring mode lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

February on track for a canonical Niña response. Very well coupled ocean-atmosphere system going into February
 

El Niño response next season would mean a big winter for the NE IMHO.

[MJO812]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I really don't care at this point...not sure whether or not you've noticed, but I have essentially checked out. 

No you didn't 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It sounds a lot like here.  We're having our driest January on record and it's not even close.  I saw that Omaha Nebraska has even less snow than NYC does.

Omaha has only seen 1.0" of snow all season.

Its not the driest January on record here, but its in the top 20 so far. Plus, like I said, it snows pretty much every day but just not squeezing out much water. Very UN-Nina like.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

                                          STATION:   DETROIT MI
                                          MONTH:     JANUARY
                                          YEAR:      2025
                                          LATITUDE:   42 13 N      
                                          LONGITUDE:  83 20 W    

  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND 
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  37  30  34   6  31   0 0.01    T    0 13.2 22 260   M    M  10 1      28 250
 2  30  27  29   2  36   0    T  0.1    0 13.3 21 280   M    M  10        29 270
 3  28  23  26  -1  39   0 0.02  0.4    T 13.7 24 290   M    M  10        32 280
 4  25  19  22  -5  43   0    T    T    T 14.9 22 270   M    M   9        31 310
 5  27  12  20  -7  45   0    T    T    T  8.2 16 300   M    M   7        23 290
 6  28  21  25  -2  40   0 0.01  0.1    T 12.2 23  10   M    M  10 169    31 340
 7  30  21  26   0  39   0    T    T    T 10.7 21 320   M    M   9        31 330
 8  26  16  21  -5  44   0    T    T    T  8.5 16 300   M    M  10        25 330
 9  28   7  18  -8  47   0 0.00  0.0    T  5.7 13 210   M    M   2        17 220
10  26  15  21  -5  44   0 0.16  3.2    T  8.2 18 190   M    M   9 128    24 190
11  34  17  26   0  39   0 0.04  0.5    4  7.2 15 290   M    M   9 1      19 280
12  34  23  29   3  36   0 0.02  0.6    3 12.2 23 210   M    M   9 1      30 200
13  34  16  25  -1  40   0    T    T    3 16.2 29 230   M    M  10 9      36 230
14  20   9  15 -11  50   0 0.03  0.8    3 11.0 21 310   M    M   7        28 300
15  26   8  17  -9  48   0    T    T    4 11.8 21 220   M    M   7        27 210
16  32  17  25   0  40   0 0.05  1.4    4 11.5 22 220   M    M  10 189    29 210
17  38  20  29   4  36   0 0.00  0.0    4 13.3 23 190   M    M   7        30 190
18  38  20  29   4  36   0 0.24    T    2 12.6 23 220   M    M   8 1      26 340
19  22   8  15 -10  50   0    T    T    2  9.0 18 300   M    M   9        24 290
20  13   5   9 -16  56   0    T    T    2 14.2 24 240   M    M   5        32 220
21  10   0   5 -20  60   0    T    T    2 12.3 21 280   M    M   6        27 220
22  16  -3   7 -18  58   0 0.01  0.1    2 13.1 20 170   M    M   7        25 190
23  26  13  20  -5  45   0 0.07  1.4    2 10.5 18 300   M    M   9 19     22 290
================================================================================
SM  628  344      1002   0  0.66  8.6    263.5          M      189              
================================================================================

 

[George001]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I really don't care at this point...not sure whether or not you've noticed, but I have essentially checked out. 

I get it, I did the same last winter. If you are already checking out I take it you aren’t buying the optimism for this upcoming pattern. I still track even when things look objectively bad because I’m a huge weenie, but if things don’t get better I’ll likely end my winter tracking a month early (usually track until early April). It does get old chasing ghost after ghost with nothing to show for it, even for me. Personally I am of the opinion we had our HECS window 1/11-1/12, and whiffed.

[George001]

14 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The midwest/upper midwest is WELL below normal to date west of the Lakes. It was -20° in Rochester, MN this week with no snow on the ground. 

Here in MI outside the lake snowbelt it's dry and cold with lots of flakes and dusters but no big storm. It's wild to think about it...Detroit has seen snow fall on 21 of the first 23 days of January, but the month to date snowfall is 8.6" and 14.0" on the season (normal to date is 21"). As a winter lover, it's great to see the mood flakes, the local lakes thick with ice, and a constant albeit not deep snowcover. But the lack of anything meaningful starts to really grind on you as we hit mid winter. My eyes are glued to the window for the first flakes of Oct/Nov, but when they become a daily occurrence & you know that any storms are hundreds if not thousands of miles away, it's not quite the same. I will gladly take the gamble to change up the pattern, even if we have to flirt with rainers and get thaws in order to increase the chance of some good snowstorms.

IF this pattern were producing more clippers it would be a completely different story. But it's not.

This is killing us in New England too. Unlike areas farther south, we need more than just one big storm to get to average snowfall. Actually, the lack of clippers has been a problem for a while and has been getting worse and worse over the years. 

[michsnowfreak]

46 minutes ago, George001 said:

This is killing us in New England too. Unlike areas farther south, we need more than just one big storm to get to average snowfall. Actually, the lack of clippers has been a problem for a while and has been getting worse and worse over the years. 

For me its not all about average snowfall. Its been nice to have a lot of sustained winter this year. We can get years with avg snowfall but tons of thaws, and despite the final snowfall number it didnt seem like it. This year has been very wintry but boring. Its really been a quiet one outside of a few systems and frequent lakes disturbances. Clippers are great, but they seem to ebb and flow over the years. Weve had a handful in recent years. I believe the '80s-90s were clipper city, it was our bread and butter here. Yet, 90s winters overall sucked. Theres SO many different ways it can snow in the Great Lakes (and NE), so I dont worry about just one aspect of it. The projected change in pattern brings WAY more chances for fun, but also some risks. Buckle up!

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

El Niño response next season would mean a big winter for the NE IMHO.

Ray, do you expect an el nino next year or a second year la nina?

[Snowstorms]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

February on track for a canonical Niña response. Very well coupled ocean-atmosphere system going into February
 

I'll take a true La Nina pattern over this current crap. 

Although it does increase the risk of cutters which can mean rain for almost all of us, including the great lakes region, it can also mean a stormy/snowy pattern for the Great lakes, NE, and NYC if there's a good balance between cold and warm. Similar to Dec-Jan 2008-09. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Really unfavorable period for snow coming up along the East Coast. The NAO/AO are going strongly positive, and a -PNA is building in and it looks like holding strong. This -PNA Is associated with ENSO subsurface negative anomalies, that really picked back up about 3 weeks ago.. since then we have gradually transitioned from +PNA to -EPO (neutral ridging over PNA region), to now -PNA. It's hitting the most unfavorable part of the cycle here in about 2 weeks.. I wouldn't expect any snow south of Boston until the pattern weakens, that could mean a few weeks.  It was a really nice 2-month pattern though from late Nov until now.. but big pattern change underway. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Really unfavorable period for snow coming up along the East Coast. The NAO/AO are going strongly positive, and a -PNA is building in and it looks like holding strong. This -PNA Is associated with ENSO subsurface negative anomalies, that really picked back up about 3 weeks ago.. since then we have gradually transitioned from +PNA to -EPO (neutral ridging over PNA region), to now -PNA. It's hitting the most unfavorable part of the cycle here in about 2 weeks.. I wouldn't expect any snow south of Boston until the pattern weakens, that could mean a few weeks.  It was a really nice 2-month pattern though from late Nov until now.. but big pattern change underway. 

Brief warmup

https://x.com/weatherwilly/status/1882866366770012404?t=GSyvRjDxqK2rol_M6bZLcg&s=19

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Really unfavorable period for snow coming up along the East Coast. The NAO/AO are going strongly positive, and a -PNA is building in and it looks like holding strong. This -PNA Is associated with ENSO subsurface negative anomalies, that really picked back up about 3 weeks ago.. since then we have gradually transitioned from +PNA to -EPO (neutral ridging over PNA region), to now -PNA. It's hitting the most unfavorable part of the cycle here in about 2 weeks.. I wouldn't expect any snow south of Boston until the pattern weakens, that could mean a few weeks.  It was a really nice 2-month pattern though from late Nov until now.. but big pattern change underway. 

Yup, really nice provided 4” snow here. 8” for the season. I’m done with “really nice”, “buckle up”, etc. I’m fine with it just torching from here and being done with this disaster winter. Let it be mild outside and just move on. At least it’ll likely provide rain as well and get us out of the drought before summer. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yup, really nice provided 4” snow here. 8” for the season. I’m done with “really nice”, “buckle up”, etc. I’m fine with it just torching from here and being done with this disaster winter. Let it be mild outside and just move on. At least it’ll likely provide rain as well and get us out of the drought before summer. 

We have seen a La Nina STJ

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Ray, do you expect an el nino next year or a second year la nina?

Just a guess....haven't researched obviously at this stage....but yes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, George001 said:

I get it, I did the same last winter. If you are already checking out I take it you aren’t buying the optimism for this upcoming pattern. I still track even when things look objectively bad because I’m a huge weenie, but if things don’t get better I’ll likely end my winter tracking a month early (usually track until early April). It does get old chasing ghost after ghost with nothing to show for it, even for me. Personally I am of the opinion we had our HECS window 1/11-1/12, and whiffed.

Well, try having 4 kids under the age of 6, and you'll check out during a lull, too.

No, I don't think its over.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

No you didn't 

Look at my post count of late....

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We have seen a La Nina STJ

Central Park had 4.5" precip in Dec. It rained plenty when we had a cutters pattern. I'm sure it will again when we revert back. I've never seen it like this before where any cold and snow avoid each other like the plague except in places that snow maybe once a decade or less. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Ray, do you expect an el nino next year or a second year la nina?

Too early to tell, but tea leaves say a 2nd year la nina is more likely. Either that or an ENSO neutral season. The IRI wouldn't have such high odds on a la nina this early in the ballgame.

[MJO812]

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Felt like he was screaming all the way to this very page...lol

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Central Park had 4.5" precip in Dec. It rained plenty when we had a cutters pattern. I'm sure it will again when we revert back. I've never seen it like this before where any cold and snow avoid each other like the plague except in places that snow maybe once a decade or less. 

we're definitely in a different climate regime now when drier than normal is the new background.... two historically dry months within a few months of each other (October-- driest month on record and many with 0 precip and now the driest January on record-- any rainy pattern will likely be shortlived.)

[snowman19]

@Stormchaserchuck1

[PhiEaglesfan712]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1
 

Looks like we're headed for a continuing la nina, a la spring 2022, rather than a flip to el nino like 2006 and 2009. In those years, the la nina had already peaked by February, setting the stage for an el nino to form the following season.