2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

cold and very snowy which was new and different lol

I put January 2004 and February 2015 in the same category that way.

I certainly do not. January 2004 was very dry up here and the peak of the cold was more severe than Feb 2015...which of course was out snowmageddon.

[snowman19]

2010-11 ended up being a way better analog than I thought. Credit to the guys who mentioned it as an analog. This Niña is behaving like a classic front end loaded event. Cold in the east from late November to late January. The EPS, GEFS and GEPS are all showing a shift to a canonical La Niña (-PNA/SE ridge/retro to Aleutian ridge) pattern in the final days of this month/start of February. You can see hints of the AK ridge retrograding from AK towards the Aleutians at the end of those ensemble runs. Very strong EWB coming up, along with -AAM, jet retraction and an amplified MJO wave propagating from the IO to the Maritime Continent, constructively interfering with the La Niña. Fits Niña climo perfectly. Here are the overnight GEPS, EPS runs. The GEFS is showing the same thing:

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I certainly do not. January 2004 was very dry up here and the peak of the cold was more severe than Feb 2015...which of course was out snowmageddon.

2003-04 wasn't such a great winter up your way, Ray :-(

were you below zero in January 2004? we were low single digits in both but I think the average mean of February 2015 was lower here.... even the last day of February was in the single digits here (almost made it to March.... which was also cold and snowy!)  I have really good memories of the back half of 2014-15, certainly better ones than I do of 2013-14.  The only winter with more prolonged snow cover I can remember was 2010-11 in which the snow was up to my windows!

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

2010-11 ended up being a way better analog than I thought. Credit to the guys who mentioned it as an analog. This Niña is behaving like a classic front end loaded event. Cold in the east from late November to late January. The EPS, GEFS and GEPS are all showing a shift to a canonical La Niña (-PNA/SE ridge/retro to Aleutian ridge) pattern in the final days of this month/start of February. You can see hints of the AK ridge retrograding from AK towards the Aleutians at the end of those ensemble runs. Very strong EWB coming up, along with -AAM, jet retraction and an amplified MJO wave propagating from the IO to the Maritime Continent, constructively interfering with the La Niña. Fits Niña climo perfectly. Here are the overnight GEPS, EPS runs. The GEFS is showing the same thing:

 

If we get the big snow after the 20th it will be a MUCH better analog.

[bluewave]

On 1/12/2025 at 8:49 AM, GaWx said:

 If this model predicted very cold 1/19-25 were to verify, Jan of 2025 would have a good chance to end up the coldest Jan since 2014 (colder than 2018) in the E 1/3 of the US averaged out. Also, going back to 1995, it may be that only 2014 and possibly 2003 would be colder. That would be quite impressive considering global warming!

So far the Northeast temperatures have been running near average since the beginning of December. Slightly below average temperatures in December and a little above average for January so far. The cold coming in from the 20th to 25th will result in the December 1st through January 25th average temperature departure running below average. The Northeast has had numerous years that were much colder than this since the 90s through the first half of winter.

So whether this winter will be the first colder one in the Northeast in 10 years will depend on the February departure. The combination of record warmth in Canada leading to the delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay and record Great Lakes warmth has lead to the Northeast departures running warmer than the Mid-Atlantic. Plus this is against the warmest 1991-2020 climate normals. If we were using 1981-2010 climate normals then the Northeast would be warmer than average for the 1st half of the winter. So depending on February the Northeast could finish the winter below average using 1991-2020 climate normals and above average vs 1981-2010 normals. But if the February temperature departures are wam enough, then the Northeast will finish above average again. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

2003-04 wasn't such a great winter up your way, Ray :-(

were you below zero in January 2004? we were low single digits in both but I think the average mean of February 2015 was lower here.... even the last day of February was in the single digits here (almost made it to March.... which was also cold and snowy!)  I have really good memories of the back half of 2014-15, certainly better ones than I do of 2013-14.  The only winter with more prolonged snow cover I can remember was 2010-11 in which the snow was up to my windows!

Oh yea....plenty of that...but just pain-stakingly boring. Colder version of this year. 

The -PNA that year saved NE....but +PNA/-NAO combo this year has been a death-knell. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

2010-11 ended up being a way better analog than I thought. Credit to the guys who mentioned it as an analog. This Niña is behaving like a classic front end loaded event. Cold in the east from late November to late January. The EPS, GEFS and GEPS are all showing a shift to a canonical La Niña (-PNA/SE ridge/retro to Aleutian ridge) pattern in the final days of this month/start of February. You can see hints of the AK ridge retrograding from AK towards the Aleutians at the end of those ensemble runs. Very strong EWB coming up, along with -AAM, jet retraction and an amplified MJO wave propagating from the IO to the Maritime Continent, constructively interfering with the La Niña. Fits Niña climo perfectly. Here are the overnight GEPS, EPS runs. The GEFS is showing the same thing:

 

The storm track has been vastly different than 2010-2011....but what's 90" in SNE between friends.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh yea....plenty of that...but just pain-stakingly boring. Colder version of this year.

Maybe 2003-04 was more like 1976-77? But I think you had more snow in 1976-77, Ray? Down here it was very cold and very dry.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The storm track has been vastly different than 2010-2011....but what's 90" in SNE between friends.

There was an actual STJ in 2010-11, a holdover from the strong el nino of the previous winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe 2003-04 was more like 1976-77? But I think you had more snow in 1976-77, Ray? Down here it was very cold and very dry.

1976 was a great snow year for this area....tons of late-blooming Miller B systems.

This year is like 1978-1979 and 1979-1980.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

There was an actual STJ in 2010-11, a holdover from the strong el nino of the previous winter.

I don't think that's it...STJ doesn't matter if the pattern isn't aligned to allow the moisture up the coast. ...you can have a firehose off of the Baja all season, if you have a PV sitting on your face it won't snow.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think that's it...STJ doesn't matter if the pattern isn't aligned to allow the moisture up the coast. ...you can have a firehose off of the Baja all season, if you have a PV sitting on your face it won't snow.

Is this what happened in November 2011, which caused the torch winter of 2011-12?

[LibertyBell]

59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think that's it...STJ doesn't matter if the pattern isn't aligned to allow the moisture up the coast. ...you can have a firehose off of the Baja all season, if you have a PV sitting on your face it won't snow.

it does remind me of March 2014 in that way.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Is this what happened in November 2011, which caused the torch winter of 2011-12?

It was a Modoki La Niña with a vortex sitting over AK.

[snowman19]

@brooklynwx99 Would WAR be better than SE ridge then? Also, the models are retrograding the AK ridge out to the Aleutians, is that still a -EPO? 

@MJO812

 

 

 

 

@40/70 Benchmark

Looks like your thoughts on February going canonical La Niña have merit. EPS, GEFS and GEPS all still on board for a big -PNA/SE ridge response in the final days of this month going into February. The EPS, GEPS and GEFS are retrograding the ridge from AK to the Aleutians. Here’s the new EPS animation:
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

it doesn’t really look all that warm with the -EPO bringing Arctic air into the CONUS, the TPV nearby, and some weak -NAO in there too

i wouldn’t even call it a SE ridge. the core of it is over the Caribbean

[brooklynwx99]

the pattern reminds me of early Feb 2014, if anything 

[MJO812]

Warmth is now gone on the models for February.

[jm1220]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Warmth is now gone on the models for February.

If we can retain some cold and get the storm track to trend back north with some kind of SE Ridge I like our chances here a lot more. Whatever gets this suppressed to hell pattern to end…

[purduewx80]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Warmth is now gone on the models for February.

good luck with that 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

good luck with that 

That's an average of the last 16 runs I believe.  The more recent runs have been cold. Can always change, of course, especially when you're running the model 4x/day. Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@brooklynwx99 Would WAR be better than SE ridge then? Also, the models are retrograding the AK ridge out to the Aleutians, is that still a -EPO? 

@MJO812

 

 

 

 

@40/70 Benchmark

Looks like your thoughts on February going canonical La Niña have merit. EPS, GEFS and GEPS all still on board for a big -PNA/SE ridge response in the final days of this month going into February. The EPS, GEPS and GEFS are retrograding the ridge from AK to the Aleutians. Here’s the new EPS animation:
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Snowier pattern for me.

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

good luck with that 

That's if it is even right.

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's an average of the last 16 runs I believe.  The more recent runs have been cold. Can always change, of course, especially when you're running the model 4x/day. Lol

Exactly 

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@brooklynwx99 Would WAR be better than SE ridge then? Also, the models are retrograding the AK ridge out to the Aleutians, is that still a -EPO? 

@MJO812

 

 

 

 

@40/70 Benchmark

Looks like your thoughts on February going canonical La Niña have merit. EPS, GEFS and GEPS all still on board for a big -PNA/SE ridge response in the final days of this month going into February. The EPS, GEPS and GEFS are retrograding the ridge from AK to the Aleutians. Here’s the new EPS animation:
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No clue why you tagged me

 Even John said that we can still see snow and it's not even a really warm look.

[so_whats_happening]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it doesn’t really look all that warm with the -EPO bringing Arctic air into the CONUS, the TPV nearby, and some weak -NAO in there too

i wouldn’t even call it a SE ridge. the core of it is over the Caribbean

Looks to me like SWFE if you can get on the cold side it would be a beautiful setup.

[so_whats_happening]

BTW some forecasts are already showing monday lows getting to near 0 in my area. Tuesday and wednesday morning potentially below 0? I think it will moderate a bit but single digits will be some of the coldest air we have seen in a bit. Highs in the upper teens, with some showing us barely getting above 15 as a high.

[so_whats_happening]

19 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Looks to me like SWFE if you can get on the cold side it would be a beautiful setup.

I feel like people see -PNA and instantly think it is all over. Not the case when you have the PV on this side of the globe, now if the PV was on the weaker side over here and more pronounced over into Russia/Siberia totally different story. This should help keep the SE Ridge/ WAR (whichever you like to call it) at bay. This would offer up a country wide cold outbreak with the deeper values into the mountains that spill east over time.

I do still expect a brief time period of average temps maybe even slightly above average to occur into the first week of February as the pattern we have had relaxes a bit and sets up into this but not seeing a torch event right now.

Im excited to get more precip thrown into the region and have the chances go up of potential snow then what we have been having. We need the precip as this is supposed to be one of the wetter times of the year even if it does fall as rain, unfortunately it may cause a lot of flooding if it is indeed rain since the ground would be a solid brick and most rivers and lakes are pretty frozen over at this time before the cold outbreak.