2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think February will be near normal temperaturewise, at least to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast (the Southeast might torch). The first 10-15 days will give good snow to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. I think March is the month when the mid-Atlantic and Northeast will have the +5 torch.

Agree RE February...will have to see if we have a SSW in Feb regarding March.

[Daniel Boone]

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Ill take this whatever winter pattern. Have had snow on the ground (~1") since January 3rd just refreshed with the last two systems 3" and 1.5" bringing our year total so far to about 7" on the season. This is the longest we have had snow on the ground in quite some time, yea sure it is not feet of snow but snow regardless. Still looking for one 12"+ system to end my season and Ill happily move on maybe something will get sniffed out here within the next 2 weeks.

My heating bill is saying wtf is going on right now for how 'mundane' this cold pattern is.

12.6" for the Season here now. Snowcover on North facing slopes and shade since Jan. 3rd. 

[Daniel Boone]

19 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You can post all your weenie maps, AI maps, teleconnection charts, all your MJO 8-1-2, SSW fantasies and musings from the weenies and weenie “buckle up” mets on twitter all you want like you do every winter, all winter. It’s not going to change the fact that the pattern is going to go canonical La Niña by February. Ignore it if you wish, I’m sure you will. But reality will set in soon enough. Just like the reality of the uber hyped 1/1 - 1/15 “historic” pattern with the January, 1996 analog that has produced NOTHING for snowfall in NYC and the hyped December and end of November pattern that produced a grand total for both months of 2.8 inches of snow for NYC from 2 (yes two) different storms added together. “December, 2010 redux!!” Crippling. You got your cold with nothing to show for it the last 2 months. I hope you enjoyed. The change is coming

Thing is, you as well as other's , some esteemed Mets, said that 2 Months ago. I'm retired now but, was in the forecasting business for 40 Years. Nothing's concrete when you have  competing Driver's with one of the biggest typical ones being weak. 

   Aigle on X is a 19 yo that you reposted the Tweet from. Hardly a more respectable enthusiast than what you said of the "weenie buckle up Mets" . 

My opinion, based on experience and Analog Data mainly, is that February will be warmer but, still rather back and forth in the East. May even be some major Snow storms. Right now, it's actually a tough call.

Originally, my thoughts back in early November was for a very mild, Nina and -PDO dominated Winter. I actually thought we had a shot at a warmest on Record. Some things changed rather quickly and look where we are. 

    Anyway, not meaning to come off harsh. Just pointing out a few things as maybe some food for thought. Overall, you make some good posts . 

   

[snowman19]

18 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some updates on last week’s thoughts:

1. Temperatures have averaged much below normal across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England areas this week. Temperature anomalies from January 5-10 were as follows: Atlanta: -7.9°; Baltimore: -8.1°; Boston: -5.7°; Chicago: -3.9°; Detroit: -5.0°; Indianapolis: -9.0°; New York: -5.9°; Norfolk: -8.2°; Philadelphia: -6.6°; Raleigh: -8.7°; Richmond: -10.6°; Washington, DC: -8.0°.

2. A storm brought heavy snow from the Plains States to the Mid-Atlantic region during January 5-7. Snowfall totals included: Baltimore: 6.6”; Indianapolis: 7.8”; St. Louis: 8.5”; Richmond: 3.5”; and Washington, DC: 7.2”. These amounts were in line with what had been expected. A separate storm brought snow to the Southeast on January 10^th. Amounts included: Atlanta 2.1”; Augusta: 1.0”; and Birmingham: 2.0”. The last time all three cities saw 1” or more in the same storm was February 12-13, 2014. That second storm also brought 3.0” to Richmond and 0.5” to New York City.

3. Indianapolis saw the temperature bottom out at 5° on January 9. Although Chicago saw a low temperature of 14°, Detroit saw the mercury dip to 7° on January 9. The low in Detroit was somewhat colder than had been expected in my discussion.

Three Thoughts Going Forward:

1. Dry weather will continue in southern California through the week. Little or no rainfall is likely in such cities as Blythe, Camarillo, Lancaster, Los Angeles, and Palm Springs.

2. A significant (6”+) snowstorm is unlikely in the big cities of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions (Richmond to Boston) during the upcoming week.

3. A strong cold shot will affect the Great Lakes Region Tuesday through Thursday. Indianapolis could see the mercury dip to 0° or slightly below. Detroit and Chicago could see one or more single-digit low temperatures. This is very cold but does not rival what could reasonably be described as historic cold.

Longer-Range:

A slow moderation in temperatures is likely to commence late in the third week of January or during the fourth week of January. Precipitation could increase to above normal levels over the closing 7-10 days of January.

 The long-range guidance suggests that an EPO+/AO+/PNA- pattern could develop in early February. Initially, there will be an EPO-/AO+/PNA- pattern, which will likely close January. The change in teleconnections will coincide with the emergence of an AAM- regime. That would imply that the end of January or the start of February could see warmer than normal readings develop.

Not surprisingly, Joe Bastardi’s 1/1 - 1/15 record/historic arctic cold snow blitz for NYC hype is going to be a huge fail. And of course no tweets about his upcoming bust 

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not surprisingly, Joe Bastardi’s 1/1 - 1/15 record/historic arctic cold snow blitz for NYC hype is going to be a huge fail. And of course no tweets about his upcoming bust 

 What do you think about the very strong signal for very cold much of the US 1/19-1/25, which would make Jan of 2025 as quite possibly one of the two coldest Jan’s in the E 1/3 of the US when averaged out since way back in 1994?

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 What do you think about the very strong signal for very cold much of the US 1/19-1/25, which would make Jan of 2025 as quite possibly one of the two coldest Jan’s in the E 1/3 of the US when averaged out since way back in 1994?

It looks very cold no doubt, however, his target period of 1/1 - 1/15 was completely wrong. He will never admit it though. He will simply say “delayed but not denied” take credit for being the 1st one to see it and move on like it never even happened. If someone else had predicted warmth for that period and busted, he’d be the 1st one to put them on blast and troll them

[donsutherland1]

50 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 What do you think about the very strong signal for very cold much of the US 1/19-1/25, which would make Jan of 2025 as quite possibly one of the two coldest Jan’s in the E 1/3 of the US when averaged out since way back in 1994?

The cold looks impressive, especially west of the Appalachians. Unlike the BAMWX 1/11-18 forecast for extreme cold, which will bust by > 20° for the forecast period, (both climo and a random number guess will easily beat its forecast), this cold shot looks to involve a genuine Arctic air mass. The previous cold has been largely from central and western Canada as per Hysplit. There are still some issues to work out about how could it gets in specific places (some disagreement between the prior 12z EPS and 0z EPS/GEFS vs. EPS). The sustained nature of the cold will lead to the eastern half seeing one of its colder Januaries in recent years.

Unfortunately, anyone can throw up a social media account and claim to be a weather forecaster today. Based on the hype, it's clear that they don't understand what they are actually posting. For example, the BAM idea had Chicago with a mean temperature of -3° for the January 11-18 period. That's 1994 cold. Yet, had the site done minimal due diligence, it would have known that the cold would have been exceptional and it would also have seen that North America had been flooded with exceptionally frigid air well ahead of the Arctic outbreak that affected Chicago. This time around, there was much less frigid air on the maps. But it's easy to post models verbatim on social media, as the general public doesn't necessarily have the skill to discern junk from quality on the runs. No analysis was done, because analysis requires skill, knowledge, and expertise, which many of those sites lack. Indeed, the situation got so far out of hand that several NWS offices had to post advising the public to ignore maps being posted on social media.

Finally, I'm not aware of a single such site that actually has weekly or monthly verifications. If they did, the results would be terrible. Not surprisingly, because of all the social media hype, the general public thinks meteorologists can't forecast (not actually true).

[roardog]

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not surprisingly, Joe Bastardi’s 1/1 - 1/15 record/historic arctic cold snow blitz for NYC hype is going to be a huge fail. And of course no tweets about his upcoming bust 

What’s funny is the original Weatherbell forecast issued Nov 27 was for January to be very mild over the entire country. A big portion of the country was higher than +3. They changed that forecast dramatically later in December. JB is now forecasting a big flip for late January into February pretty much the same as you are. So, you better change your forecast now. lol

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It looks very cold no doubt, however, his target period of 1/1 - 1/15 was completely wrong. He will never admit it though. He will simply say “delayed but not denied” take credit for being the 1st one to see it and move on like it never even happened. If someone else had predicted warmth for that period and busted, he’d be the 1st one to put them on blast and troll them

Did you admit it when you predicted warmth ? Come on man.

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, roardog said:

What’s funny is the original Weatherbell forecast issued Nov 27 was for January to be very mild over the entire country. A big portion of the country was higher than +3. They changed that forecast dramatically later in December. JB is now forecasting a big flip for late January into February pretty much the same as you are. So, you better change your forecast now. lol

One of the few times I’ve ever seen him accurately predict something was when he forecasted warmth. The last time I can remember him insisting on the pattern turning warm was January of 2011. He told everyone over and over that all the blocking was going to fall apart at the end of the month and winter was going to end at the beginning of February and not come back again. The weenies wanted to kill him and he ended up being right

[snowman19]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Did you admit it when you predicted warmth ? Come on man.

Good lord yes I was wrong about the warmth. Happy? Now admit that you have been dead wrong about all the snowstorms you’ve been predicting since the end of November up until today

@MJO812 Of course you won’t admit how badly you’ve busted on the snow. Not surprised

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The cold looks impressive, especially west of the Appalachians. Unlike the Bamwx 1/11-18 "historic shot" which will bust by > 20° (both climo and a random number guess will easily beat its forecast), this cold shot looks to involve a genuine Arctic air mass. The previous cold has been largely from central and western Canada as per Hysplit. The sustained nature of the cold will lead to the eastern half seeing one of its colder Januaries in recent years.

 If this model predicted very cold 1/19-25 were to verify, Jan of 2025 would have a good chance to end up the coldest Jan since 2014 (colder than 2018) in the E 1/3 of the US averaged out. Also, going back to 1995, it may be that only 2014 and possibly 2003 would be colder. That would be quite impressive considering global warming!

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Good lord yes I was wrong about the warmth. Happy? Now admit that you have been dead wrong about all the snowstorms you’ve been predicting since the end of November up until today

Thank you for admitting it. Have a great day.

[GaWx]

 It isn’t often that a GEFS day 8 mean SLP is projected to be as high as 1048 mb in the US, but today’s 6Z has that (as of 3Z on Jan 20th):

 

Thanks to a Siberian Express pattern, 11 of the 30 members then have the high 1052+ mb somewhere in the N Rockies or Plains of the US (members 6-8, 14-15, 17-19, 22, 24, 30):