2024-2025 La Nina

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Honestly...with 2" on the season here on the NH border in N Mass, I am ready to take a Stab at that pattern....it won't be any less snowy and if I get porked with snowfall again, at least it will be warmer.

Only  2 inches ? Jeez

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Only  2 inches ? Jeez

Yea, brutal.....bring on RNA.

[MJO812]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, brutal.....bring on RNA.

I really don't care if I get snow to rain. Just change this pattern please.

[LakePaste25]

Although persistent, the cold pattern that began the New Year has not been that impressive for the northeast. The cold temperature anomalies have been more impressive further west in the plains and in the deep south. Persistent cloudy conditions north of the turnpike has kept a lid on temperature departures, even resulting in the min temps being above normal.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 1/7/2025 at 7:55 AM, bluewave said:

Back in October I was pointing out the potential PNA mismatch signal for December which worked out. But I also mentioned that other factors weren’t lining up like they did as recently as 2020 and 2017.  As it turns out the Northern Stream of the Pacific was among the strongest we have ever seen with such a positive +PNA. So this lead to the warmer and less snowy outcome than most of the past +PNA La Niña Decembers.

La Niña Decembers with strong +PNA patterns

2024…PNA…+1.70….NYC….avg temp…38.2°….snowfall…2.8”

2020…+1.58….39.2°….10.5”

2017….+0.89…35.0°…..7.7”

2005…+1.38….35.3…..9.7”

2000….+1.23…31.1°…..13.4”

1995…..+0.92…32.4°….11.5”

1985…..+1.39….34.2°….0.9”

1963……+1.77….31.2°….11.3”

 

Did you specifically call for December to be the mismatch month? I remember the mismatch posts not really specifying a particular month...ie seasonal forecast. I ended up focusing on January, but obviously it ended up including December, too.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, brutal.....bring on RNA.

I’m absolutely convinced of RNA the end of this month/early February. MJO forcing will be moving into the IO with amplitude. Also, the SPV gains strength and coupling with the TPV looks imminent. That will result in a strong to very strong AO/NAO

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

While I blew it on the snow this weekend that isn't going to happen, I was all over this late blooming La Niña....people bail don it left and right.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

While I blew it on the snow this weekend that isn't going to happen, I was all over this late blooming La Niña....people bail don it left and right.

I only bailed on it because the MEI increased in AS/SO (from -0.7 to -0.5). If that hadn't happened, I would have not bailed on the la nina, but there was evidence that the la nina was potentially coming to an end.

Speaking of the MEI, it came in at -0.9 for ND, the lowest so far this season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I only bailed on it because the MEI increased in AS/SO (from -0.7 to -0.5). If that hadn't happened, I would have not bailed on the la nina, but there was evidence that the la nina was potentially coming to an end.

Speaking of the MEI, it came in at -0.9 for ND, the lowest so far this season.

This La Nina was a low key tricky one...usually people assume a weak event will be easy, but I have found it can be the opposite.

[LakePaste25]

I think going forward, the main question is what type of SE ridge pattern we see in Feb. Do we see an amplified SE ridge torch like we saw in Feb 2018, or do we see a more muted, -EPO driven SE ridge with a gradient pattern such as Feb 2022? I am obviously rooting for the latter as it is better for snow chances here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I think going forward, the main question is what type of SE ridge pattern we see in Feb. Do we see an amplified SE ridge torch like we saw in Feb 2018, or do we see a more muted, -EPO driven SE ridge with a gradient pattern such as Feb 2022? I am obviously rooting for the latter as it is better for snow chances here.

The latter IMO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I only bailed on it because the MEI increased in AS/SO (from -0.7 to -0.5). If that hadn't happened, I would have not bailed on the la nina, but there was evidence that the la nina was potentially coming to an end.

Speaking of the MEI, it came in at -0.9 for ND, the lowest so far this season.

I went back in early November with a peak RONI of -1.2 to -1.4 and a peak MEI of between -1.0 and -1.2.

[GaWx]

 The new Euro Weeklies are the coldest yet for the E US overall for these 2 weeks, which would seal a very cold Jan in the E half of the US overall (-7 to -9 in some places would be quite possible). That would be similar to 2014 and a bit colder than 2018, 2011, 2010, and 2003 overall in the E US. It may turn out the coldest Jan since 1994!

1/13-19: first time with some 4th shade of blue (~11 BN):

1/20-26: largest area of 3rd shade of blue yet (mainly 6-10 BN)

 

Also note the precip signal for 1/20-26: moderate wet signal Gulf to SE VA (Miller A?): 

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The new Euro Weeklies are the coldest yet for the E US overall for these 2 weeks, which would seal a very cold Jan in the E half of the US overall (-7 to -8 in some places wouod be quite possible):

1/13-19: first time with some 4th shade of blue (~9-10F BN):

1/20-26: largest area of 3rd shade of blue yet (5-9F BN)

 

Also note the precip signal for 1/20-26: moderate wet signal Gulf to SE VA (Miller A?): 

Keeps the hope alive for some meaningful snow.  Could just be more cold, dry suppression up here in the Northeast but without the cold we wouldn't have much hope so I will take it.  These nickle and dine coating to 1" event don't cut it for me.

[snowman19]

@donsutherland1 @bluewave Strengthening SPV to very strong levels with tropospheric/TPV coupling is imminent. The AO and NAO very likely go strongly positive
 

[mitchnick]

53 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The new Euro Weeklies are the coldest yet for the E US overall for these 2 weeks, which would seal a very cold Jan in the E half of the US overall (-7 to -9 in some places would be quite possible). That would be similar to 2014 and a bit colder than 2018, 2011, 2010, and 2003 overall in the E US. It may form out the coldest Jan since 1994!

1/13-19: first time with some 4th shade of blue (~11 BN):

1/20-26: largest area of 3rd shade of blue yet (mainly 6-10 BN)

 

Also note the precip signal for 1/20-26: moderate wet signal Gulf to SE VA (Miller A?): 

They also muted BIG time the warmup in the east for weeks 5 and 6 (early February. )

[michsnowfreak]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

They also muted BIG time the warmup in the east for weeks 5 and 6 (early February. )

I noticed that. Will worry about that when the time comes, but a muted southeast ridge could be a good thing for those in the north, including snow starved new England. 

But that's so far in the future and there's a ton more cold coming, so I'll believe any big time warmup when I see it. We've been getting daily mood flakes and dustings that sublimate so the ground has remained mostly bare so its really frozen solid. Finally have some synoptic snow coming so took the Christmas decorations down outside and couldn't get a few of the stakes out of the ground lol.

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

They also muted BIG time the warmup in the east for weeks 5 and 6 (early February. )

I’m going with meteorology not modelology for this one. The tropical forcing progression and La Niña absolutely supports -PNA end of the month/early February. Could be a bit of a lag or the models haven’t caught on yet, like they didn’t to the cold this month until the last minute, but I completely believe that’s coming. I haven’t been so sure of something since I took up this hobby

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m going with meteorology not modelology for this one. The tropical forcing progression and La Niña absolutely supports -PNA end of the month/early February. Could be a bit of a lag or the models haven’t caught on yet, like they didn’t to the cold this month until the last minute, but I completely believe that’s coming. I haven’t been so sure of something since I took up this hobby

Hey that's fine, but I  was just responding to Ga's rundown of today's weeklies not to anyone or anything else. The weeklies have done very well with temps this winter. And as Michsnowfreak posted, it's hard to believe it'll get warm until it actually occurs. As such, I  feel until they're wrong, just run with them. Otoh, a little above normal temps with normal or above precip in February around here would work for snow, so I'm OK with the pattern change the weeklies are showing. 

[so_whats_happening]

If the trade winds forecasted continue to show west of the dateline being more anomalous than normal versus over 3 and 3.4 this will certainly keep pushing the 'Nina' waters further and further west. This will ultimately also allow for sinking air to start being more prevalent around the eastern portions of the Maritime Continent (around 5/6/7 of the MJO Phase) and a less concentrated region of lift over phase 4 region like we saw November into December. We would start to have a dual or split lifting region of 1/2/3 showing up and potentially avoiding the dreaded 4/5/6. This of course is still a few weeks out but we should start to approach close to phase 3 by the last week of January after that I am not so certain on a 4/5 swing as we go into February as many seem to be so keen on. I personally see us to have peaked with this Nina at this point unless we get some rogue constructive interference in the next 2 weeks showing up, which I have my doubts. I think what likely happens is the subsurface we currently see just maintains what we currently have and lets it slowly fade over time. These are just some thoughts popping about in my head for what could be the next 3-4weeks.

On a side note this would certainly be a noteworthy situation if we somehow ended the season below average snowfall wise around here yet ended up with more snow than Boston...

[so_whats_happening]

This is impressive to say the least. Definitely did not expect to see this 500mb look as we approach the halfway mark through the winter season.