2024-2025 La Nina

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies, which have done very well overall recently (with the current cold that followed the prior warmth…all well predicted) have it pretty mild throughout most of the lower 48 states Feb 3-16.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies, which have done very well overall recently (with the current cold that followed the prior warmth…all well predicted) have it pretty mild throughout most of the lower 48 states Feb 3-16.

Obviously weeklies aren't good for anything remotely resembling a forecast (short term models have a tough enough time with that) but I must say I'm loving the look of week 3 (Jan 20-27). The dead of winter + below average temps + above avg precip.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies, which have done very well overall recently (with the current cold that followed the prior warmth…all well predicted) have it pretty mild throughout most of the lower 48 states Feb 3-16.

Going old school, I would start watching later this month to see if we start seeing any big positive SOI days. That would probably give us a hint of when SE ridging might be coming. The SOI is negative now and has been for a little while which is a good indicator of the coming/continuing eastern trough. It'll be interesting to see if the weeklies are on to something or if it's just going to Nina Feb climo.

[Maxim]

On 12/26/2024 at 10:16 AM, Maxim said:

Still wouldn’t rule out a warm month for a good chunk of the CONUS. The Euro AIFS in particular is not at all buying into the cold that the GFS seems to be exaggerating in recent runs.

Looks as though the AIFS had the right idea all along. Interestingly, it is now showing a very warm pattern starting around mid-month, and may have some staying power as well.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, Maxim said:

Looks as though the AIFS had the right idea all along. Interestingly, it is now showing a very warm pattern starting around mid-month, and may have some staying power as well.

I'm hoping the very warm pattern starts around mid-month, rather than in February. At least if the warm pattern starts in mid-January, there is still time to get a cold pattern on the back end of winter. If the warm pattern starts in February, then the winter is basically cooked.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm hoping the very warm pattern starts around mid-month, rather than in February. At least if the warm pattern starts in mid-January, there is still time to get a cold pattern on the back end of winter. If the warm pattern starts in February, then the winter is basically cooked.

I know you predicted a warm January, but some of these posts are REALLLY stretching it. Even if the cold is not as extreme as it first seemed, and even if it does ease, there's absolutely NOTHING showing a "warm" or "very warm" January. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm hoping the very warm pattern starts around mid-month, rather than in February. At least if the warm pattern starts in mid-January, there is still time to get a cold pattern on the back end of winter. If the warm pattern starts in February, then the winter is basically cooked.

You need to let it go, dude...take the "L". Nothing about January is very warm in the east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I know you predicted a warm January, but some of these posts are REALLLY stretching it. Even if the cold is not as extreme as it first seemed, and even if it does ease, there's absolutely NOTHING showing a "warm" or "very warm" January. 

Yea, it happens to everyone who endeavors to out forth a long range forecast...happened to me in December. But you lose credibility when you refuse to own it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Even as much of the CONUS is in the early stages of what should be a multiweek period of generally sustained cold, albeit with only limited severe cold, if that, there are distant hints of a dramatic pattern shift for late January or the start of February. The 46-day ECMWF ensemble forecast now shows the development of a strong EPO+/AO+ pattern. At the same time, the AAM will likely have been negative for approximately two weeks.

The January 2, 2025 ECMWF weekly forecast showed a break from the cold to start February. The January 3 cycle reaffirmed that change with an even more expansive warm signal.

January 3 run of the ECMWF Weeklies:

Strong EPO+/AO+ Patterns (February 1-10, 1980-2024):

It should be noted that the maps are currently used to illustrate a scenario now showing up on the long-range guidance. Skill scores at the timeframe involved are low. What is important is that one has now seen multiple runs suggesting that a milder/warmer regime could set in for the start of February. That's the only point that should be taken from the post at this time. In short, if the early shift in the long-range guidance is correct, winter could relax to end January/start February.

 

Yea, this general idea is in accordance with my pre season timeline.

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it happens to everyone to endeavors to out forth a long range forecast...happened to me in December. But you lose credibility when you refuse to own it.

True. You liking the 2nd half of Jan for a more active Lakes and Northeast? The law of averages, and CPC, would seem to think so. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

True. You liking the 2nd half of Jan for a more active Lakes and Northeast? The law of averages, and CPC, would seem to think so. 

Yes....every season I hilight one or two 2 week window(s) during which the risk of a KU caliber system is heightened...I chose 1/21 to 2/4 early last November as a potential phase-change event into warmer, RNA style regime.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

The NOAA ONI for OND is -0.4; the SON ONI has been revised from -0.2 to -0.3

The OND RONI comes in at -0.92

Also, December PDO comes in at -2.08, a +1.06 jump from November's -3.14

[donsutherland1]

Some updates on last week’s thoughts:

1. On December 28^th, Chicago reached 51° and Detroit topped out at 58° (3^rd highest figure on record for the date). Both cities saw colder than normal conditions begin January 3^rd, slightly later than suggested.

2. On December 30, high temperatures included: Baltimore: 65°, New York City: 60°, Philadelphia: 66°, and Washington, DC: 68°; On December 30, high temperatures included: Baltimore: 62° and Washington, DC: 63°; On December 31, high temperatures included: Philadelphia: 60° and Washington, DC: 63°. Temperatures were modeled to fall to below normal levels starting today.

3. Snowfall amounts for December 28-January 3 included: Baltimore: Trace ; Boston: None; Chicago: 0.3”; Detroit: 0.5”; Indianapolis: Trace; New York City: None; Philadelphia: Trace; and, Washington, DC: Trace

4. Phoenix concluded its warmest December (mean temperature: 62.3°) and its warmest year (78.6°) on record. Phoenix also reached and then surpassed its old record of 353 consecutive days during which the temperature stayed at 40° or above. Phoenix also experienced its first record high of 2025 with a high temperature of 81° yesterday (old record: 79°, 1956, 1981, and 1989)

5. Blythe’s record streak without measurable precipitation reached 277 days as of yesterday.

Three Thoughts Going Forward:

1. The Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southern New England areas will all see temperatures average below to much below normal this week. As the air mass's origin is from central Canada, the kind of severe cold seen with cross-polar air masses will not be present.

2. A powerful and strengthening AO block will shape the path of a storm coming out of the Plains States and provide significant confluence over the northeastern U.S. As a result, a storm will bring significant snowfall from St. Louis to Washington, DC during the January 5-7 timeframe. Amounts will likely include: Baltimore: 4”-8”; Indianapolis: 6”-12”; St. Louis: 5”-10”; and, Washington, DC: 4”-8”

3. Following the snowstorm, Indianapolis could see the mercury fall into the single digits for on one or two days this week. Lacking meaningful snow cover, Chicago and Detroit will probably see their coldest temperatures fail to break 10°.

Longer-Range:

A slow moderation in temperatures is likely during the third week of January, but the week will likely be colder than normal across much of the East and Great Lakes Regions.

The long-range guidance suggests that an EPO+/AO+/PNA- pattern could develop in late January. The change in teleconnections could coincide with the emergence of an AAM- regime. That would imply that the month of January or the start of February could see warmer than normal readings. That pattern change now shows up on the ECMWF weeklies, even as the CFSv2 maintains the cold.

[snowman19]

Some updates on last week’s thoughts:

1. On December 28^th, Chicago reached 51° and Detroit topped out at 58° (3^rd highest figure on record for the date). Both cities saw colder than normal conditions begin January 3^rd, slightly later than suggested.

2. On December 30, high temperatures included: Baltimore: 65°, New York City: 60°, Philadelphia: 66°, and Washington, DC: 68°; On December 30, high temperatures included: Baltimore: 62° and Washington, DC: 63°; On December 31, high temperatures included: Philadelphia: 60° and Washington, DC: 63°. Temperatures were modeled to fall to below normal levels starting today.

3. Snowfall amounts for December 28-January 3 included: Baltimore: Trace ; Boston: None; Chicago: 0.3”; Detroit: 0.5”; Indianapolis: Trace; New York City: None; Philadelphia: Trace; and, Washington, DC: Trace

4. Phoenix concluded its warmest December (mean temperature: 62.3°) and its warmest year (78.6°) on record. Phoenix also reached and then surpassed its old record of 353 consecutive days during which the temperature stayed at 40° or above. Phoenix also experienced its first record high of 2025 with a high temperature of 81° yesterday (old record: 79°, 1956, 1981, and 1989)

5. Blythe’s record streak without measurable precipitation reached 277 days as of yesterday.

Three Thoughts Going Forward:

1. The Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southern New England areas will all see temperatures average below to much below normal this week. As the air mass's origin is from central Canada, the kind of severe cold seen with cross-polar air masses will not be present.

2. A powerful and strengthening AO block will shape the path of a storm coming out of the Plains States and provide significant confluence over the northeastern U.S. As a result, a storm will bring significant snowfall from St. Louis to Washington, DC during the January 5-7 timeframe. Amounts will likely include: Baltimore: 4”-8”; Indianapolis: 6”-12”; St. Louis: 5”-10”; and, Washington, DC: 4”-8”

3. Following the snowstorm, Indianapolis could see the mercury fall into the single digits for on one or two days this week. Lacking meaningful snow cover, Chicago and Detroit will probably see their coldest temperatures fail to break 10°.

Longer-Range:

A slow moderation in temperatures is likely during the third week of January, but the week will likely be colder than normal across much of the East and Great Lakes Regions.

The long-range guidance suggests that an EPO+/AO+/PNA- pattern could develop in late January. The change in teleconnections could coincide with the emergence of an AAM- regime. That would imply that the month of January or the start of February could see warmer than normal readings. That pattern change now shows up on the ECMWF weeklies, even as the CFSv2 maintains the cold.

The GEFS has it now too

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The GEFS has it now too

 

 

 

 

Yes. That adds confidence in the idea of the pattern change.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

13 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

True. You liking the 2nd half of Jan for a more active Lakes and Northeast? The law of averages, and CPC, would seem to think so. 

I think the 2nd half of Jan and 1st half of Feb are going to be more active, in terms of precipitation. I get a feeling one of these periods will be above normal temperatures and the other below normal temperatures. The BN portion will give us the snowy period, and the AN portion the rainy.

The next 7-10 days following the 1/6 snowstorm will be cold and dry.

[michsnowfreak]

53 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think the 2nd half of Jan and 1st half of Feb are going to be more active, in terms of precipitation. I get a feeling one of these periods will be above normal temperatures and the other below normal temperatures. The BN portion will give us the snowy period, and the AN portion the rainy.

The next 7-10 days following the 1/6 snowstorm will be cold and dry.

Active is all I ask for. I don't care about temps as long as it doesn't torch. The northern US is in zzzzz city right now. We are getting lots of flakes and gray skies but just a dusting here and there (and LES sublimates fast). Only the belts are getting more persistent snow bands. Most of the rest of the upper midwest is sunny and cold.

[mitchnick]

Today’s weeklies are colder than yesterday's...what a shock.

Last 3 weeks have AN precip on the east coast. Buckle up winter haters! Lol

[GaWx]

The Dec QBO came in at +12.70, down from +13.78, the first monthly drop since March.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Today’s weeklies are colder than yesterday's...what a shock.

Last 3 weeks have AN precip on the east coast. Buckle up winter haters! Lol

January looks really good for winter weenies. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Today’s weeklies are colder than yesterday's...what a shock.

Last 3 weeks have AN precip on the east coast. Buckle up winter haters! Lol

Right! Haha Even around the middle of last month, weren't some of the LR models predicting warm only to end up buckling to cold later?

[snowman19]

@Gawx @bluewave  @40/70 Benchmark @donsutherland1
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx @bluewave  @40/70 Benchmark @donsutherland1
 

Yea, exactly in line with my Outlook....2008-2009 a very good ENSO analog in terms of ONI and EMI. This isn't to imply that this winter will be as cold, so lets get that out of the way.

[GaWx]

The Dec 2024 PNA came in at +1.70, setting a new record high PNA for a non-El Nino (going back to 1950) beating the +1.58 of 2020. The only Dec PNAs higher than 2024 were during El Niño:

2006 +1.86

1969 +1.84

1963 +1.77
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, exactly in line with my Outlook....2008-2009 a very good ENSO analog in terms of ONI and EMI. This isn't to imply that this winter will be as cold, so lets get that out of the way.

The problem with 2008-09 is that I don't see a flip to a strong el nino next year. I think 2021-22, which remained a la nina, looks like the better analog.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The problem with 2008-09 is that I don't see a flip to a strong el nino next year. I think 2021-22, which remained a la nina, looks like the better analog.

That isn't a problem because it's irrelevant within the scope of the analysis. It's a superior ENSO analog for THIS season. 

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weekly for 1/20-6 came in the coldest yet for it for the E US overall….fwiw since 2+ weeks out and the upcoming week while very cold/MB normal (Euro Weeklies did very well to hint at this starting 3 weeks ago way back with the Dec 14th run) is looking to verify a bit less cold in many areas vs the coldest runs. I’d like to see the next few days of runs to get a better feel for 1/20-6. Plus, there’s been an overall cold bias of models in general the last 8 years. But if this were to verify it would solidify even further a cold month, overall, in the E US as it would mean 3 cold weeks in a row:

 

[George001]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The problem with 2008-09 is that I don't see a flip to a strong el nino next year. I think 2021-22, which remained a la nina, looks like the better analog.

The issue with 21-22 is that was more of an east based La Niña. This is a modoki La Niña with the core of the cold focused west, while the eastern ENSO regions have warmer anomalies. So although 21-22 isnt a bad match for strength, I would say 08-09 and 16-17 are better ENSO analogs due to how they developed (modoki rather than east based). 

[raindancewx]

On 8/31/2024 at 4:26 PM, raindancewx said:

My forecast calls for -3 to -5 for the Northeast this winter, with the first ever 0" snowfall season for the Boston area. Nothing but 37-42 degree rain, with storm after storm moving in during the 'just warm enough' afternoons but never at night. After each storm, a powerful cold front will drive through pushing temps well below average overnight. These cold fronts will also clear the moisture out of the air. So lows will be cold with highs near average. But timing will prevent measurable snow. You saw it here first.

Meanwhile due to slightly better timing, with storms arriving in the morning, Philadelphia and DC will be just cold enough for each system, and see 50-60 inches of snow. The South will be graced with ice and sleet, floods, tornado outbreaks, with the Plains and West alternating between brief record cold snaps and +10 readings for the rest of the winter.

 

This may actually work out pretty well. I was only half kidding when I wrote it.