2024-2025 La Nina

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

Also models have backed off the SSW wave 2 response, such a bummer. They seem to be pointing toward a very strong wave 1 response similar to what we had last year as we go into mid month. With that type of response I do not see it breaking the SPV just significantly weakening it and maybe allowing for maybe a reversal (major warming) event to take place. Once the warming wanes the SPV should still be intact and probably some regaining of strength into February which could reverse the course of what we are seeing at 500mb currently but this is far to ahead of the game to know for sure, plus being close to the end of the season my mindset kind of says so what? Lol

Until then we are seeing a different response at 500mb last year to the current SSW setup so hopes are we don't go uber torch but honestly I feel I would be fine with one solid snow event (12"+) for the season and move on. Enjoy the snow and cold that comes over the next 2-3 weeks, fingers are crossed. Happy New Year everyone!

Weeklies have done pretty darn good so far. The upgrade seemed to actually be an upgrade.

That said, weeklies now show a break in the cold for the first 10 days of February.  However, it's not prohibitively warm for snows in the Mid Atlantic on north since that period us near climo lows provided the right pattern.

More to my point, weeklies have the last 4 days in January and first 10 days in February decently AN with precip.  If I  was in NYC on north and wanted it to snow, I'd be pretty psyched. Heck, I'm in south central PA and feel I'll have a shot too.

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Weeklies have done pretty darn good so far. The upgrade seemed to actually be an upgrade.

That said, weeklies now show a break in the cold for the first 10 days of February.  However, it's not prohibitively warm for snows in the Mid Atlantic on north since that period us near climo lows provided the right pattern.

More to my point, weeklies have the last 4 days in January and first 10 days in February decently AN with precip.  If I  was in NYC on north and wanted it to snow, I'd be pretty psyched. Heck, I'm in south central PA and feel I'll have a shot too.

If we have the right pattern here and even well south of us it can definitely still snow in Jan and into Feb. There have been some big snow events recently even on the Delmarva. If the blocking is real, cold dumps in from Canada and we can get the Pacific to relax just a little, odds are in our favor. But it’s always a roll of the dice and some turd can always show up in the punch bowl to ruin it. We’re not the Snow Belt where all we need is cold air over a warm lake flowing in the right direction. 

[snowman19]

Weeklies have done pretty darn good so far. The upgrade seemed to actually be an upgrade.
That said, weeklies now show a break in the cold for the first 10 days of February.  However, it's not prohibitively warm for snows in the Mid Atlantic on north since that period us near climo lows provided the right pattern.
More to my point, weeklies have the last 4 days in January and first 10 days in February decently AN with precip.  If I  was in NYC on north and wanted it to snow, I'd be pretty psyched. Heck, I'm in south central PA and feel I'll have a shot too.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm basing my opinion off the Euro weeklies and Cansips, subject to their updates. A week ago the Cfs had January AN for the east. Its forecast for February has no weight at this point imho. And honestly, I  don't hold any weight to the internet/Twitter posters. But the post from Webb is just canonical Nina which may or may not occur. Moreover, my post regarding February was just for the first 10 days. I didn't make a call/statement on anything beyond then because I  haven't looked that far ahead. I'm still stressing over whether the Euro's 9" forecast for me on Monday has a shot. Lol

[GaWx]

After 4 straight Euro Weeklies runs that were the coldest yet for Jan 6-12, it looks like the next run will finally be less cold than the prior despite still being very cold.

, 

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I'm basing my opinion off the Euro weeklies and Cansips, subject to their updates. A week ago the Cfs had January AN for the east. Its forecast for February has no weight at this point imho. And honestly, I  don't hold any weight to the internet/Twitter posters. But the post from Webb is just canonical Nina which may or may not occur. Moreover, my post regarding February was just for the first 10 days. I didn't make a call/statement on anything beyond then because I  haven't looked that far ahead. I'm still stressing over whether the Euro's 9" forecast for me on Monday has a shot. Lol

The tail end of the month is when the CFS actually has some validity for the next month. Not saying it’s right but:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Remember when we discussed how the strong trades/EWB’s (shear/subsidence) and colder waters from the La Niña would destructively interfere with the MJO just pushing into phase 8 without any resistance?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

With the forcing in multiple location on the VP anomalies charts,  the early to mid January forecast isn’t the canonical MJO 8-2 where the coldest temperatures are usually found in the Northeast. This time the coldest temperatures will be displaced further to the south and west. Could also be related to the record low sea ice around Hudson Bay with the warmth there. 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

13 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Also models have backed off the SSW wave 2 response, such a bummer. They seem to be pointing toward a very strong wave 1 response similar to what we had last year as we go into mid month. With that type of response I do not see it breaking the SPV just significantly weakening it and maybe allowing for maybe a reversal (major warming) event to take place. Once the warming wanes the SPV should still be intact and probably some regaining of strength into February which could reverse the course of what we are seeing at 500mb currently but this is far to ahead of the game to know for sure, plus being close to the end of the season my mindset kind of says so what? Lol
Until then we are seeing a different response at 500mb last year to the current SSW setup so hopes are we don't go uber torch but honestly I feel I would be fine with one solid snow event (12"+) for the season and move on. Enjoy the snow and cold that comes over the next 2-3 weeks, fingers are crossed. Happy New Year everyone!

So far, despite some early indications back at the end of November that it would couple, the strong SPV has remained decoupled from the troposphere. All indications are that it stays strong, which fits the -ENSO/+QBO/solar max states. Question is, like you mentioned, does it continue to stay decoupled? @bluewave

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The tail end of the month is when the CFS actually has some validity for the next month. Not saying it’s right but:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You can get the daily 0z and 12z Cfs forecasts here for free if interested:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=500h_anom&rh=2024123100&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Last night's run has major cold returning 2/1, but like we all know, it could easily change at 12z as prior runs had it warm.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=850t_anom&rh=2024123100&fh=768&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

So far, despite some early indications back at the end of November that it would couple, the strong SPV has remained decoupled from the troposphere. All indications are that it stays strong, which fits the -ENSO/+QBO/solar max states. Question is, like you mentioned, does it continue to stay decoupled? @bluewave

This could be one of our strongest January -AO patterns without a SSW .So maybe the delayed freeze-up around Hudson Bay is giving us an asssit. A very impressive bottom up rather than top down process.

[snowman19]

This could be one of our strongest January -AO patterns without a SSW .So maybe the delayed freeze-up around Hudson Bay is giving us an asssit. A very impressive bottom up rather than top down process.

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

We are in track for the greatest AO volatility from October into January with possibly the first +4  October daily reading followed by -4 in January.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, jm1220 said:

If we have the right pattern here and even well south of us it can definitely still snow in Jan and into Feb. There have been some big snow events recently even on the Delmarva. If the blocking is real, cold dumps in from Canada and we can get the Pacific to relax just a little, odds are in our favor. But it’s always a roll of the dice and some turd can always show up in the punch bowl to ruin it. We’re not the Snow Belt where all we need is cold air over a warm lake flowing in the right direction. 

You can have snow even in a warm February-- see February 2018, that Valentine's Day/Night snow was memorable.

 

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

Coldest Euro weekly for 1/6-12 once again! Much of the area in the 4th shade of blue in the E US is 11-15F BN. The 5th shade is 18 BN!

 Also, the 2 weeks after this are easily the coldest for those weeks yet suggesting that some areas could see a 7 to 8 BN Jan!

How similar is this to what happened  in January 1977 ?

 

[Allsnow]

Remember this 

 

 

[mitchnick]

53 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Remember this 

 

 

Recent runs of the Cfs get better with AN precip along the east coast!

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

How similar is this to what happened  in January 1977 ?

 

Not similar at all. For one, 1976-77 was an el nino, and when the -PDO flipped to +PDO. Secondly, the summer of 1976 was a frontloaded summer, reaching its highest temperature in mid-April and most of its 90-degree days were by June 30. Signs of a record cold season were already there by the end of summer. The record cold started in October 1976 and continued through January 1977. Soon thereafter, the pattern flipped, with March 1977 being very warm, which would continue throughout the spring.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How similar is this to what happened  in January 1977 ?

 

1. Although very cold, 7-8F BN in the SE/MidAtlantic/Midwest wouldn’t be nearly as cold as 77 or 40, which were 9-15 BN in much of the same area.

2. Although still very cold, today’s Euro Weeklies may not be quite as cold.

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

With the forcing in multiple location on the VP anomalies charts,  the early to mid January forecast isn’t the canonical MJO 8-2 where the coldest temperatures are usually found in the Northeast. This time the coldest temperatures will be displaced further to the south and west. Could also be related to the record low sea ice around Hudson Bay with the warmth there. 

 

 

 

 

 The prospects during the 1st half of Jan for a weak to moderate left side of diagram MJO, along with a moderate to strong +PNA, strong -AO/-NAO (-AO strongest yet) and weakly negative to neutral EPO remain intact on the models. That combo can’t be beat for cold E US potential.

 The GEFS mean about like yesterday gets the AO/NAO down to ~-4/-1.5 within Jan 6-9. The other Jans since 1950 with a lowest AO/NAO of sub -4/-1.5 have been these: 2010, 1979, 1970, 1966, 1963, 1959, and 1958. 5 of the 7 were during El Niño. None have occurred during La Niña. So, 2025 could be the first Niña Jan on record with this.

 Temperature anomalies for these 7 Jans: cold most favored Midwest, Plains, and South, but overall quite a cold map for a 7 Jan composite. This is quite similar to yesterday’s 1/6-12 Euro Weekly map that you just posted:

[jconsor]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

So far, despite some early indications back at the end of November that it would couple, the strong SPV has remained decoupled from the troposphere. All indications are that it stays strong, which fits the -ENSO/+QBO/solar max states. Question is, like you mentioned, does it continue to stay decoupled? @bluewave

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Some additional context to the unusual nature of this cold outbreak stratosphere-troposphere wise:

https://bsky.app/profile/drahbutler.bsky.social/post/3lekmlyusmc25

[GaWx]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

After 4 straight Euro Weeklies runs that were the coldest yet for Jan 6-12, it looks like the next run will finally be less cold than the prior despite still being very cold.

, 

As I expected, today’s Euro weekly for 1/6-12 isn’t quite as cold as the last two runs although it’s still very cold:

 The subsequent week (1/13-19) is about as cold as yesterday’s (solid cold but not as cold as 1/6-12).

 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

As I expected, today’s Euro weekly for 1/6-12 isn’t quite as cold as the last two runs although it’s still very cold:

 The subsequent week (1/13-19) is about as cold as yesterday’s (solid cold but not as cold as 1/6-12).

 

Weeklies can-kicked any AN temps, and modestly so, to only week 6. Week 5 is now normal in the east.

Weeks 5 and 6 continue to be AN with precip along the east coast from the Mid Atlantic thru NE.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

As I expected, today’s Euro weekly for 1/6-12 isn’t quite as cold as the last two runs although it’s still very cold:

 The subsequent week (1/13-19) is about as cold as yesterday’s (solid cold but not as cold as 1/6-12).

 

Who wants brutally cold weather  anyway ?

[Terpeast]

47 minutes ago, GaWx said:

As I expected, today’s Euro weekly for 1/6-12 isn’t quite as cold as the last two runs although it’s still very cold:

 The subsequent week (1/13-19) is about as cold as yesterday’s (solid cold but not as cold as 1/6-12).

 

I think the cold being centered the W or SW is a good thing as opposed to it being right on top of us.

[mitchnick]

@GaWx

New Cansips run out this evening Larry maintains what looks to be a weak/mod Modoki Niño next year. The link below is for the month of 12/25, but it appears the Niño may peak in November. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=T850a&runtime=2025010100&fh=11

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

Heh...so I was right about the very strong PV in January...but the fact that its decoupled is killing my forecast for +AO/NAO. More palatable error IMO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

This could be one of our strongest January -AO patterns without a SSW .So maybe the delayed freeze-up around Hudson Bay is giving us an asssit. A very impressive bottom up rather than top down process.

Maybe that is the reason for the unexpected -AO/NAO....interesting.

[mitchnick]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe that is the reason for the unexpected -AO/NAO....interesting.

Only a very small area that's currently unfrozen though.

 

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe that is the reason for the unexpected -AO/NAO....interesting.

It looks like Dec NAO will probably come in moderately positive in the table…..~+0.6 to +0.8. Then we’ll have the very strong first half of Jan -NAO. It may be as low as -2 tabular equivalent. But then it should rise quite a bit per model consensus. However, Jan as a whole should still come out decently negative, possibly sub -1. If it were to end up lower than -1.11, it would be the lowest since the mid 80s!

 If so, Dec-Jan would average a weak -NAO with only Feb left. So, there’d then be a shot at a sub -0.25 NAO near a solar max though I wouldn’t bet on it as of yet.

[ice1972]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

It looks like Dec NAO will probably come in moderately positive in the table…..~+0.6 to +0.8. Then we’ll have the very strong first half of Jan -NAO. It may be as low as -2 tabular equivalent. But then it should rise quite a bit per model consensus. However, Jan as a whole should still come out decently negative, possibly sub -1. If it were to end up lower than -1.11, it would be the lowest since the mid 80s!

 If so, Dec-Jan would average a weak -NAO with only Feb left. So, there’d then be a shot at a sub -0.25 NAO near a solar max though I wouldn’t bet on it as of yet.

oh for fuks sakes.....we're this and then we're that....you can get with this or you could get with that......KIA had a commercial once......lol