2024-2025 La Nina

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2008:

 17DEC2008     22.7-0.2     24.5-0.7     25.7-0.8     27.6-0.8
 24DEC2008     22.9-0.3     24.4-0.8     25.6-1.0     27.5-0.9
 31DEC2008     23.2-0.4     24.6-0.7     25.5-1.0     27.4-0.9

2024:

 04DEC2024     22.5 0.1     24.8-0.4     26.3-0.3     28.3-0.2
 11DEC2024     22.5-0.2     24.8-0.4     26.1-0.6     28.1-0.3
 18DEC2024     22.8-0.2     24.7-0.5     25.8-0.8     28.0-0.4

That would make 2024-5 a significantly stronger La Niña than 2008-9 on a relative basis to surrounding tropical waters’ anomalies considering that RONI and ONI were very close in 2008-9 vs 0.5 to 0.6 apart now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

That would make 2024-5 a significantly stronger La Niña than 2008-9 on a relative basis to surrounding tropical waters’ anomalies considering that RONI and ONI were very close in 2008-9 vs 0.5 to 0.6 apart now.

Yes...should be moderate in terms of RONI and maybe even MEI.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Again....EMI isn't crucial when it’s a weaker event. 

EMI aside, for argument’s sake let’s say it’s a basin-wide event, which it isn’t….it’s looking more likely by the day that we see a canonical pattern. -AAM, Nina metrics all jiving now. And if the MJO projections are correct, after 1/20 or so, it goes into IO and Maritime Continent phases, which will constructively interfere 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

EMI aside, for argument’s sake let’s say it’s a basin-wide event, which it isn’t….it’s looking more likely by the day that we see a canonical pattern. -AAM, Nina metrics all jiving now. And if the MJO projections are correct, after 1/20 or so, it goes into IO and Maritime Continent phases, which will constructively interfere 

I wouldn't count on Maritime interference with gusto by the end of January.  Most of the forecasts are slowly moving toward this Cfs forecast by staying out of the COD in phases 8-2, though the Cfs may be a bit too strong in the Indian Ocean.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

EMI aside, for argument’s sake let’s say it’s a basin-wide event, which it isn’t….it’s looking more likely by the day that we see a canonical pattern. -AAM, Nina metrics all jiving now. And if the MJO projections are correct, after 1/20 or so, it goes into IO and Maritime Continent phases, which will constructively interfere 

It is basin-wide...I agree, we should see more MC forcing in February. I'm not arguing that January's pattern will carry over through February....I think it will back off, but I don't think it will be a 2018 like torch. All I'm saying is that too much emphasis is placed on EMI when its relatively weak.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I wouldn't count on Maritime interference with gusto by the end of January.  Most of the forecasts are slowly moving toward this Cfs forecast by staying out of the COD in phases 8-2, though the Cfs may be a bit too strong in the Indian Ocean.

Even if it goes into the COD, the pattern should wane some.....but I do agree its not going to be prohibitive.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think there will still be some overrunning SWFE type of events in New England during February before me maybe try to make another run late season.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even if it goes into the COD, the pattern should wane some.....but I do agree its not going to be prohibitive.

Absolutely the pattern relaxes the end of January into early February.  But this year has taught 1 thing if nothing else, and that is to throw out the historically expected atmospheric responses. It seems to be on a mission of its own despite what we may think based on the analogs.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think there will still be some overrunning SWFE type of events in New England during February before me maybe try to make another run late season.

I definitely think "a" cold pattern returns, but probably not identical to what we've seen so far and what January will offer.

[snowman19]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It is basin-wide...I agree, we should see more MC forcing in February. I'm not arguing that January's pattern will carry over through February....I think it will back off, but I don't think it will be a 2018 like torch. All I'm saying is that too much emphasis is placed on EMI when its relatively weak.

I mean it’s kind of hard to go February, 2018 style torch since that month saw NYC hit 80 degrees lol Yea, that’s probably not happening. One thing I’m confident in is that the pattern after 1/20 is very likely NOT to look like the pattern from 1/1 - 1/20 despite the nonsense arrogant BAMWX is supposedly feeding their paid subscribers about the pattern “locking in” through February. IMO, that idea is going to go down in flames

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think there will still be some overrunning SWFE type of events in New England during February before me maybe try to make another run late season.

If the strong Nina lag is true then February might not be so bad. 

And then Nina March's can be really good too

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

If the strong Nina lag is true then February might not be so bad. 

And then Nina March's can be really good too

What is a strong Nina lag? I’m not following 

[GaWx]

The updated bc GEFS/EPS are still looking favorable for cold (it’s hard to be in a better position than these weak left sided tracks):

 

Yesterday’s extended bc EPS *fwiw* suggests no strong MC anytime in Jan:

[SnowGoose69]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I mean it’s kind of hard to go February, 2018 style torch since that month saw NYC hit 80 degrees lol Yea, that’s probably not happening. One thing I’m confident in is that the pattern after 1/20 is very likely NOT to look like the pattern from 1/1 - 1/20 despite the nonsense arrogant BAMWX is supposedly feeding their paid subscribers about the pattern “locking in” through February. IMO, that idea is going to go down in flames

I could definitely see if the MJO gets decent amplitude through 8-1-2 that any flip takes awhile to happen and its closer to 2/10 or 2/15 before things really change.  I've never liked relying on late peaking Ninos or Ninas to be able to turn the background state as well as ones which are established by October or November.

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If the strong Nina lag is true then February might not be so bad. 

And then Nina March's can be really good too

Yep, I can see that.

[brooklynwx99]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yep, I can see that.

the CONUS and Canada are going to be loaded with Arctic air... can easily see some overrunning / SWFE potential for NYC north (especially NE) at times if you can press the SE ridge down

[Allsnow]

The first half of January looks all MJO driven to Me 

[mitchnick]

Snowman will be getting excited over the last week on the Eps weeklies. Finally a trough in Alaska after colder weeks 1-3. Week 2 is crazy cold now.

[GaWx]

 New Euro Weekly 2m temps for Jan 6-12 (see image below) is by a good margin the coldest yet and is the coldest Euro Weeklies map covering a 7 day period and still over a week out I can ever recall seeing for the E US: the 3rd shading of blue is 3-6 C/5.4-10.8F BN, which covers just about everywhere in and near the E including 200-300 miles offshore the E coast. That means the bulk of the E US is 7-10 BN! There’s even a tiny area of 3rd shade (-5.5F) in Cuba!

 The coldest is in W VA, where for the first time a tiny bit of the 4th shade is showing (~11F BN)!

 This map is easily the coldest on the entire globe for that week and beyond. Also, the subsequent week is cold.

 Here’s Jan 6-12:

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 New Euro Weekly 2m temps for Jan 6-12 (see image below) is by a good margin the coldest yet and is the coldest Euro Weeklies map covering a 7 day period and still over a week out I can ever recall seeing for the E US: the 3rd shading of blue is 3-6 C/5.4-10.8F BN, which covers just about everywhere in and near the E including 200-300 miles offshore the E coast. That means the bulk of the E US is 7-10 BN! There’s even a tiny area of 3rd shade (-5.5F) in Cuba!

 The coldest is in W VA, where for the first time a tiny bit of the 4th shade is showing (~11F BN)!

 This map is easily the coldest on the entire globe for that week and beyond. Also, the subsequent week is cold, too.

 

[SnowGoose69]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Snowman will be getting excited over the last week on the Eps weeklies. Finally a trough in Alaska after colder weeks 1-3. Week 2 is crazy cold now.

Whether thats legit or not who knows.  Might once again be the model trying to default to the ENSO state

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Whether thats legit or not who knows.  Might once again be the model trying to default to the ENSO state

I agree, but the progged January can't last forever. But if I can see the snowfall the Eps are showing, I've got no problem dealing with a relax. Just hoping it doesn't mean the end of winter. Even cold winters have relaxation periods. But we may have an Ace in the hole with a SSW as So_Whats_Happening posted earlier. We'll see on that because consequences are always iffy even when they occur.

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I agree, but the progged January can't last forever. But if I can see the snowfall the Eps are showing, I've got no problem dealing with a relax. Just hoping it doesn't mean the end of winter. Even cold winters have relaxation periods. But we may have an Ace in the hole with a SSW as So_Whats_Happening posted earlier. We'll see on that because consequences are always iffy even when they occur.

 I’m surprised @snowman19hasnt posted about the suddenly much more active sun! Chances for a major SSW in late Jan through Mar are high per Joe D’Aleo’s report, which showed a significant correlation between active solar/W QBO and major SSW chances. 
 

2024 12 01 2024.917 119  17.1  25  30
2024 12 02 2024.919 132  19.8  19  22
2024 12 03 2024.922 125  13.3  20  24
2024 12 04 2024.925 125  15.8  14  16
2024 12 05 2024.928 129   9.8  12  16
2024 12 06 2024.930 117  23.9  18  22
2024 12 07 2024.933 136  17.4  15  18
2024 12 08 2024.936 146  28.5  12  15
2024 12 09 2024.939 115  11.0  10  12
2024 12 10 2024.941 149  17.5   7   9
2024 12 11 2024.944 124  12.4   9  11
2024 12 12 2024.947 115   6.6  11  13
2024 12 13 2024.949 112  16.7  12  13
2024 12 14 2024.952  97  18.3  13  15
2024 12 15 2024.955 109  11.9  12  14
2024 12 16 2024.958 100   9.9  13  16
2024 12 17 2024.960  92  13.2  16  19
2024 12 18 2024.963 116   6.8  17  19
2024 12 19 2024.966 128  15.3  15  17
2024 12 20 2024.969 155  15.9  26  29
2024 12 21 2024.971 162  16.7  14  16
2024 12 22 2024.974 193  26.6  13  15
2024 12 23 2024.977 224  32.9  12  14
2024 12 24 2024.980 216  44.5   9   9
2024 12 25 2024.982 239  24.1  11  12
2024 12 26 2024.985 267  32.5   9  11
2024 12 27 2024.988 257  23.0  10  13

[leo2000]

I ain't following all this La Nina non sense about it being moderate. This is a neutral enso winter not La Nina or El Nino. https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/la-nina-may-develop-it-likely-be-weak-and-short-lived

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

That would make 2024-5 a significantly stronger La Niña than 2008-9 on a relative basis to surrounding tropical waters’ anomalies considering that RONI and ONI were very close in 2008-9 vs 0.5 to 0.6 apart now.

That would make 2021-22 probably the best fit ONI/RONI/MEI analog. That was the year the ONI started to drift apart from the RONI and MEI.