mitchnick Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Every one of these 5 indicators is at the coldest of the season to date clearly indicative of a rapidly strengthening La Niña to near weak/moderate Niña border on the dailies and suggesting equivalent RONI dailies probably at least high end moderate to quite possibly bordering on strong. This means a Nov to Dec cooling likely one of the strongest back to 1950 though not near the 0.8 record shattering cooling suggested by many earlier CFS runs: OISST: -0.98 C CRW: -0.95 C CDAS: -1.43 C Buoys: coldest below -1.5 C near equator along entire Nino 3.4: OHC: 0.6 C plunge just since late Nov to -1.1 C Thanks Larry. I don't doubt there are readings below -1C in 3.4, but I would be shocked if we get a trimonthly of -1C or lower. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Every one of these 5 indicators is at the coldest of the season to date clearly indicative of a rapidly strengthening La Niña to near weak/moderate Niña border on the dailies and suggesting equivalent RONI dailies probably at least high end moderate to quite possibly bordering on strong. This means a Nov to Dec cooling likely one of the strongest back to 1950 though not near the 0.8 record shattering cooling suggested by many earlier CFS runs: OISST: -0.98 C CRW: -0.95 C CDAS: -1.43 C Buoys: coldest below -1.5 C near equator along entire Nino 3.4: OHC: 0.6 C plunge just since late Nov to -1.1 C This is definitely historic strengthening for this late in the season. I’m sure the MEI also dropped like a rock, probably high-end moderate, borderline strong like the RONI. We have way, way surpassed the 2008 late bloomer La Niña strengthening. It’s incredibly rare to see a Niña event just take off like this in the NDJ trimonthly period @bluewave @donsutherland1 @40/70 Benchmark 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 23 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This is definitely historic strengthening for this late in the season. I’m sure the MEI also dropped like a rock, probably high-end moderate, borderline strong like the RONI. We have way, way surpassed the 2008 late bloomer La Niña strengthening. It’s incredibly rare to see a Niña event just take off like this in the NDJ trimonthly period @bluewave @donsutherland1 @40/70 Benchmark OISST 3.4 ERSST/OISST anomalies dropped 0.40 C/0.47 C in 2008 from Nov to Dec. This could easily end up near a 0.5C drop for OISST which would be a new record Nov to Dec drop for La Niña back to 1950. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago The 12Z EPS 360 hour has about as negative H5 anomalies as I can recall on any run at 360 centered in the E US. NYC is at 534 dm, which is a whopping 14-15 dm BN! Keep in mind that that is a 50 member ensemble mean out 15 days, a very difficult modeled anomaly to have: 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: This is definitely historic strengthening for this late in the season. I’m sure the MEI also dropped like a rock, probably high-end moderate, borderline strong like the RONI. We have way, way surpassed the 2008 late bloomer La Niña strengthening. It’s incredibly rare to see a Niña event just take off like this in the NDJ trimonthly period @bluewave @donsutherland1 @40/70 Benchmark Does this mean it will probably stick around to later in the season than normal too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 57 minutes ago, GaWx said: OISST 3.4 ERSST/OISST anomalies dropped 0.40 C/0.47 C in 2008 from Nov to Dec. This could easily end up near a 0.5C drop for OISST which would be a new record Nov to Dec drop for La Niña back to 1950. I wasn't aware that 2008-09 was a possible analog for this season. We did have snowy bouts in in all four wintry months DJFM that season. Nothing huge (except for that one MECS we had on March 1st, still my largest March snowstorm lol.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago How about this earlier in the 12Z EPS (at 270)?This has E NC at 20 dm BN and NYC at only 532 dm, which is 17 dm BN! I’d say that’s ~equally impressive to the further out but not quite as cold 360 hour map posted above: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Does this mean it will probably stick around to later in the season than normal too? Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Today's weeklies looked to have gotten colder for week 2. Plus, the AN for the last week that was there yesterday is gone as a reload from sw Canada appears imminent. Recall I mentioned a few days ago how it looked like a possible pattern repeat due to cold air building from sw Canada. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202412240000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501060000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago I'm also still impressed with the continuation of the nose dive in global SST anomalies to levels not seen in years on all sources. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago New Euro Weeklies: For Jan 6-12: H5 has the strongest negative anomalies yet with a whopping 13-14 BN at NYC with 536 dm for a full week! The PV is centered near 70N, 80W over far N Hudson Bay. The W ridge is a bit further east vs yesterday along W coast meaning stronger +PNA, thus bringing the center of the cold back to the E US like was the case before yesterday. The Aleutian low is the strongest yet. H5: 1/6-12 2m: 1/6-12 is as Mitch just said colder in the E US though it isn’t as cold W/NW of Chicago, where the center of the cold was yesterday. Today’s has the 3rd shade of cold covering most of the E US vs just a tiny area in the 3rd shade mainly in NC the last 4 days. The third shade is 3-6C BN or 5.4-10.8F BN averaged over a full week! The subsequent week, 1/12-18, is still cold/slightly colder SE vs yesterday though not as cold Midwest with like the prior week having the W ridge a bit further east along W coast. This run keeps a pretty stout +PNA much of Jan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: New Euro Weeklies: For Jan 6-12: H5 has the strongest negative anomalies yet with a whopping 13-14 BN at NYC with 536 dm for a full week! The PV is centered near 70N, 80W over far N Hudson Bay. The W ridge is a bit further east vs yesterday along W coast meaning stronger +PNA, thus bringing the center of the cold back to the E US like was the case before yesterday. The Aleutian low is the strongest yet. H5: 1/6-12 2m: 1/6-12 is as Mitch just said colder in the E US though it isn’t as cold W/NW of Chicago, where the center of the cold was yesterday. Today’s has the 3rd shade of cold covering most of the E US vs just a tiny area in the 3rd shade mainly in NC the last 4 days. The third shade is 3-6C BN or 5.4-10.8C BN averaged over a full week! The subsequent week, 1/12-18, is still cold/slightly colder SE vs yesterday though not as cold Midwest. Larry, have you ever seen such a huge area of BN off the Atlantic seaboard on the weeklies? I can't recall it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Larry, have you ever seen such a huge area of BN off the Atlantic seaboard on the weeklies? I can't recall it. Can't help but think with that kind of contrast between air and sea, it will help with developing low pressure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Does this mean it will probably stick around to later in the season than normal too? Not necessarily. The late season la ninas in 2006 and 2009 went straight to el nino the following year, with the latter (2009-10) being a strong el nino. Although, each case produced a strong la nina in the second year following (2007-08 and 2010-11). On the flip side, the late season la nina in 2022 continued into 2022-23, but went strong el nino during the 2nd year following. My guess is that the 2022 scenario is more likely, but history favors 2026-27 having the opposite ENSO (in extreme strength) of 2025-26. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 2 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Not necessarily. The late season la ninas in 2006 and 2009 went straight to el nino the following year, with the latter (2009-10) being a strong el nino. Although, each case produced a strong la nina in the second year following (2007-08 and 2010-11). On the flip side, the late season la nina in 2022 continued into 2022-23, but went strong el nino during the 2nd year following. My guess is that the 2022 scenario is more likely, but history favors 2026-27 having the opposite ENSO (in extreme strength) of 2025-26. and thats also when the peak influence of the solar max would be in the next 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 44 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Larry, have you ever seen such a huge area of BN off the Atlantic seaboard on the weeklies? I can't recall it. It’s as big as any I can recall. The size of the area in the 3rd shade of blue off the E coast is the most impressive I can recall. It isn’t easy to get that offshore as we know. Looking back in my saved maps, today’s EW map for 1/6-12, with it covering most of the E US in 3-6C/5.4-10.8F BN is THE coldest of any I have in the E US for the week still being 13 days out! The only other one I have that is comparable (slightly colder NE/slightly warmer SE) with most of the E US in 5.4-10.8F BN is closer in at 9 days out (11/23/24) preceding Dec 2-8: How well did this 9 days out map verify for 12/2-8/24? NYC (map: ~-5.5F): actual was -5.3F (so, very close) Wilmington, NC (map: ~-6F): actual was -10.9F (so, it wasn’t nearly cold enough) Savannah (map ~-5.5F): actual was -9.7 (so, it wasn’t nearly cold enough) If this verification were to happen to be an indication of what’s to come Jan 6-12, the SE (at the very least) would verify colder then what today’s map shows. Also, if the strong cold signal maintains itself, look for a portion of this going into the 4th shade of blue on a run within a few days. The 4th shade starts at -10.8F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago The PDO should continue to climb too, with the progged pattern. Which is interesting. This is a 5 day mean from the 12z eps. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Way up will go the HDDs it appears as of now! 12Z EPS US pop weighted HDDs in purple on left is a bit colder than the 0Z (yellow). Green is normal. They’re progged to double between 12/29 and Jan 4th: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 5 hours ago, snowman19 said: This is definitely historic strengthening for this late in the season. I’m sure the MEI also dropped like a rock, probably high-end moderate, borderline strong like the RONI. We have way, way surpassed the 2008 late bloomer La Niña strengthening. It’s incredibly rare to see a Niña event just take off like this in the NDJ trimonthly period @bluewave @donsutherland1 @40/70 Benchmark The cooling was probably delayed due to the record background SST warmth. While global SSTs have cooled some in the last several months, they are still as warm as December 2015 which was a super El Niño. So this La Niña is definitely a late bloomer. EQSOI was on par with stronger La Ninas back in November. Plus CP OLR was the strongest on record for any La Niña during the month of November. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 9 hours ago, snowman19 said: This is definitely historic strengthening for this late in the season. I’m sure the MEI also dropped like a rock, probably high-end moderate, borderline strong like the RONI. We have way, way surpassed the 2008 late bloomer La Niña strengthening. It’s incredibly rare to see a Niña event just take off like this in the NDJ trimonthly period @bluewave @donsutherland1 @40/70 Benchmark I think its a great analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 11 hours ago, mitchnick said: Thanks Larry. I don't doubt there are readings below -1C in 3.4, but I would be shocked if we get a trimonthly of -1C or lower. Right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The cooling was probably delayed due to the record background SST warmth. While global SSTs have cooled some in the last several months, they are still as warm as December 2015 which was a super El Niño. So this La Niña is definitely a late bloomer. EQSOI was on par with stronger La Ninas back in November. Plus CP OLR was the strongest on record for any La Niña during the month of November. One positive takeaway from this is it might put a dent in the global temperatures. The overall spatial SST maps look a lot cooler with the ENSO region cooling off, as well as the Japan marine heat wave abating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The cooling was probably delayed due to the record background SST warmth. While global SSTs have cooled some in the last several months, they are still as warm as December 2015 which was a super El Niño. So this La Niña is definitely a late bloomer. EQSOI was on par with stronger La Ninas back in November. Plus CP OLR was the strongest on record for any La Niña during the month of November. Good post. I've been noticing how much subsurface anomalies have been dropping the past few weeks, we are back almost in Moderate Nina range. And the 30-day SOI recently hit +15, after not going above +6 all year. There are not many analogs of the SOI behaving like that. Could increase La Nina chances going into next year, should be interesting to see how it evolves. Events don't usually "start" in December like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 15 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Good post. I've been noticing how much subsurface anomalies have been dropping the past few weeks, we are back almost in Moderate Nina range. And the 30-day SOI recently hit +15, after not going above +6 all year. There are not many analogs of the SOI behaving like that. Could increase La Nina chances going into next year, should be interesting to see how it evolves. Events don't usually "start" in December like this. The closest analogs are 05-06, 08-09, and 21-22. Two of these (2006 and 2009) flipped to el nino the following year (with one, 09-10, being a strong el nino), while the third (2022) stayed a la nina. Oddly enough, the two that flipped to el nino produced strong la ninas in year 2, while the one that stayed a la nina flipped to a strong el nino in year 2. So I guess whatever ENSO state we have in 2025-26, we'll have the reverse in 2026-27 (and likely a strong event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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