2024-2025 La Nina

[Allsnow]

 

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Can't we just guess? All in good faith, of course. 

Reconstructed data is pretty much that....

[GaWx]

 The bc MJO forecasts for early Jan from GEFS/EPS continue to be in the general vicinity of what has often during cold ENSO coincided with cold in much of the E US in Jan, that being just outside, near, or within the left half of the circle (7 out of the 8 cases that I found: 2022 2nd half, 2000 late, 1999 early, 1996 and 1994 (1st halves), 1982 late, and 1976 early). The only failure was the mild middle of Jan of 2023.

 

[snowman19]

As far as La Niña winters go, just in terms of cold, not snow so far obviously, maybe 10-11 wasn’t too horrible of an analog, 10-11 was night and day at this point with the record -NAO/-AO blocking. That winter was a classic front-loaded Niña too. If that’s the canonical Niña progression we are going to follow, the cold/blocking hangs around till mid-late January, then goes -PNA/Aleutian ridge with tropical forcing in the Maritime Continent 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As far as La Niña winters go, just in terms of cold, not snow so far obviously, maybe 10-11 wasn’t too horrible of an analog, 10-11 was night and day at this point with the record -NAO/-AO blocking. That winter was a classic front-loaded Niña too. If that’s the canonical Niña progression we are going to follow, the cold/blocking hangs around till mid-late January, then goes -PNA/Aleutian ridge with tropical forcing in the Maritime Continent 

There were clear Nino influences this month especially the last third of December. 

It's not a canonical Nina due to multiple areas of forcing playing a role. There's no guarantee we go typical Nina after mid January. 

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There were clear Nino influences this month especially the last third of December. 

It's not a canonical Nina due to multiple areas of forcing playing a role. There's no guarantee we go typical Nina after mid January. 

Ok. I’m not saying the NPAC hasn’t resembled a Nino. I was speaking in terms of the cold and snow so far (albeit) nothing like 10-11 snow wise to this point. There are very clearly Niña influences in this pattern and the tropical PAC is and has been very strongly into a Niña state. There’s also no guarantee that the NPAC stays in a Nino like state either 

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As far as La Niña winters go, just in terms of cold, not snow so far obviously, maybe 10-11 wasn’t too horrible of an analog, 10-11 was night and day at this point with the record -NAO/-AO blocking. That winter was a classic front-loaded Niña too. If that’s the canonical Niña progression we are going to follow, the cold/blocking hangs around till mid-late January, then goes -PNA/Aleutian ridge with tropical forcing in the Maritime Continent 

 If the cold domination hangs on through Jan 15 and possibly as late as Jan 20, we’d be looking at the high likelihood that both Dec and Jan would end up averaging NN to BN in much of the E US, something you didn’t expect in advance per your posts. I certainly didn’t expect this then. So, even if Feb is mild (still quite possible as often is the case in La Niña…I favor it as of now), this winter is likely going to end up significantly colder than we had expected.

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 If the cold domination hangs on through Jan 15 and possibly as late as Jan 20, we’d be looking at the high likelihood that both Dec and Jan would end up averaging NN to BN in much of the E US, something you didn’t expect in advance per your posts. I certainly didn’t expect this then. So, even if Feb is mild (still quite possible as often is the case in La Niña…I favor it as of now), this winter is likely going to end up significantly colder than we had expected.

I was never expecting a blowtorch winter, that’s why I went with a +2F - +4F average for Dec-Mar. But yes, definitely colder than I had expected up to this point in time and more -EPO than I had expected. Now the real question everyone cares about….what does the rest of this winter do snow wise? In the end, no one cares about the cold….if this ends up being a below average snowfall winter, people will call it a fail and say it sucked even if we average -5F from Dec-Mar

[brooklynwx99]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As far as La Niña winters go, just in terms of cold, not snow so far obviously, maybe 10-11 wasn’t too horrible of an analog, 10-11 was night and day at this point with the record -NAO/-AO blocking. That winter was a classic front-loaded Niña too. If that’s the canonical Niña progression we are going to follow, the cold/blocking hangs around till mid-late January, then goes -PNA/Aleutian ridge with tropical forcing in the Maritime Continent 

personally i think 13-14 is a better analog than 10-11 but it’s clear that we’re breaking colder. i think we moderate in late Jan and then who knows what happens in Feb. with all of the lingering Nino influence i’m not totally resigned to a super warm Feb

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I was never expecting a blowtorch winter, that’s why I went with a +2F - +4F average for Dec-Mar. But yes, definitely colder than I had expected up to this point in time and more -EPO than I had expected. Now the real question everyone cares about….what does the rest of this winter do snow wise? In the end, no one cares about the cold….if this ends up being a below average snowfall winter, people will call it a fail and say it sucked even if we average -5F from Dec-Mar

 I don’t include Mar as part of winter. I’m talking met winter (DJF) since Mar normal temps are significantly higher (early met spring).

 I agree that many (though not me) just focus on snowfall and thus I agree with what you’re saying for many thinking fail though again not all.