2024-2025 La Nina

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That has been my theory on how the earth will correct that persistent west PAC warm pool.

It actually seemed to work the opposite way in 2015.  That year featured 462 ACE points in the WPAC for the 4th most active typhoon season on record. This was followed by the record WPAC warm pool for a super El Niño in 15-16 and historic December +13 and record MJO 4-6 for such a strong El Niño. So the WPAC has had no difficulty recharging its heat content. We even saw this in recent years with how rapidly the warm pool near Indonesia rebounded following the fall +IOD patterns. At this point I am not even sure what it would take to cool that region for more than a few months at a time. 
 

Accumulated cyclone energy - Pacific typhoon hide

Season	ACE	TS	TY	STY	Classification
1997	570.4	29	23	11	Extremely active
2004	480.6	31	20	6	Extremely active
1992	470.1	31	21	4	Extremely active
2015	462.9	26	20	9	Extremely active

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It actually seemed to work the opposite way in 2015.  That year featured 462 ACE points in the WPAC for the 4th most active typhoon season on record. This was followed by the record WPAC warm pool for a super El Niño in 15-16 and historic December +13 and record MJO 4-6 for such a strong El Niño. So the WPAC has had no difficulty recharging its heat content. We even saw this in recent years with how rapidly the warm pool near Indonesia rebounded following the fall +IOD patterns. At this point I am not even sure what it would take to cool that region for more than a few months at a time. 
 

Accumulated cyclone energy - Pacific typhoon hide

Season	ACE	TS	TY	STY	Classification
1997	570.4	29	23	11	Extremely active
2004	480.6	31	20	6	Extremely active
1992	470.1	31	21	4	Extremely active
2015	462.9	26	20	9	Extremely active

Who knows, maybe coupling with tremendous Atlantic activity changes things. That mega-El Nino also had something to do with arranging this configuration IMO. Bottom line is I don't expect this configuration to be permanent and its demise will likely be of tropical origin. 

I know you are heading towards it being permanent.

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who knows, maybe coupling with tremendous Atlantic activity changes things. That mega-El Nino also had something to do with arranging this configuration IMO. Bottom line is I don't expect this configuration to be permanent and its demise will likely be of tropical origin. 

I know you are heading towards it being permanent.

I an not in the permanent camp yet. But I think next 5 years will give us enough data to make that call one way or the other. A large portion of the Eastern US has had an unprecedented 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row. If this doesn’t change by 2030, then I think we would have to entertain the idea of some type of shift to a new regime. So I will just take it one year at a time to see if there are any deviations from this pattern. 

[snowman19]

52 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I a not in the permanent camp yet. But I think next 5 years will give us enough data to make that call one way or the other. A large portion of the Eastern US has had an unprecedented 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row. If this doesn’t change by 2030, then I think we would have to entertain the idea of some type of shift to a new regime. So I will just take it one year at a time to see if there are any deviations from this pattern. 

How many winters in a row now have people hyped that the MJO is going to go phases 7-8-1 only to have it get stuck in phases 4-5-6? With an oncoming Niña, it’s extremely likely to be status quo this coming winter too 

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I an not in the permanent camp yet. But I think next 5 years will give us enough data to make that call one way or the other. A large portion of the Eastern US has had an unprecedented 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row. If this doesn’t change by 2030, then I think we would have to entertain the idea of some type of shift to a new regime. So I will just take it one year at a time to see if there are any deviations from this pattern. 

I agree with this. I feel like we should enter a very favorable period around the turn of the decade due to the solar min and potential end of the long term -PDO phase working to trigger some positive regression. But if we are still in this horrid stretch by the early 2030's, then something is probably up.

[snowman19]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree with this. I feel like we should enter a very favorable period around the turn of the decade due to the solar min and potential end of the long term -PDO phase working to trigger some positive regression. But if we are still in this horrid stretch by the early 2030's, then something is probably up.

The climate cycle we are in right now is part of the reason, among many others, why I think 95-96 is a horrible analog

[bluewave]

On 5/22/2024 at 1:24 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I was reading a recent paraphrase republication about the NE Pacific warm pools being a recurring consequence associated with changing circulation modes ( teleconnection). 

Those that try and correlate these long terms air-sea coupled correlations in winter projections may find this useful ...

https://phys.org/news/2024-04-atmospheric-teleconnections-sustain-blobs-northeast.html

(the original source material is linked - )

The WPO's influence/factorization in the discussion, notwithstanding, the NE PAC/'EPO' loading is enhanced(ing) these N/A cold outbreaks.  Intuitively counter to CC motif as it may be.

 

The interesting part is that we only had that extended pattern during the cold seasons in 13-14 and 14-15. It was associated with very strong blocking over the NE PAC domain. But the paper doesn’t mention the fact that this pattern has shifted to the warm seasons since then and has been largely absent during the winters. Notice how the models are building the ridge over the Western US during the start of June right on cue. Record Western warm season heat and drought have been a dominant feature  in recent years. A prime example of this was the historic NE PAC blocking and heatwave in the Pacific Northwest during the summer of 2021. 

[Volcanic Winter]

On 5/26/2024 at 12:48 PM, snowman19 said:

@Volcanic Winter

Sorry guys, been rather busy. The sourcing I’ve been able to find states the first main eruption was .4 cubic kilometers, and the larger second blast on 4/30 was about .9. Together that’s a full VEI 5 event (that close together it’ll be taken as a single event, many big eruptions are multi phased). Together it’s just larger than St Helen’s 1.2 cubic kilometers. 

I’m still uncertain on the SO2 figures and resulting climate impact. This eruption was smaller than El Chichon which had over ~7Tg’s of SO2 ejected into the atmosphere as a slightly larger but very gassy VEI 5. I’m thinking ~1.5 - 2 Tg’s possible for the combined event, but I will look into and pull actual data in the future. That’s just a guess based on early figures. Remember a lot of sources are only showing the .4 Tg of the first blast, and the second was substantially larger. 

It was a substantial eruption. It’s not going to cause a deep volcanic winter of course, but it could cause some climate perturbations. I wouldn’t bet on a major effect though, IMHO. Usually low end VEI5’s aren’t major climate drivers unless they’re unusually gassy (like El Chichon erupting through the anhydrite of the Yucatán). 

[GaWx]

 The WCS daily PDO as of 5/28/24 has plunged further to -2.66, the lowest since at least late Oct of 2022 (not just since Sep of 2023, which dipped as low as ~-2.63 as this graph shows). That means that the equivalent NOAA daily PDO would likely be in the general vicinity of -3.4 to -3.7! The May 2024 NOAA PDO is likely going to be down to the -2.5 to -2.9 range as the WCS May 2024 PDO drops to ~-1.8 to -1.9.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

While it’s certainly possible that this La Niña only peaks at “high-end” moderate on the ONI, it’s looking more and more likely that the RONI is going to be strong. I also expect that the MEI will indicate a strong event given the coupling 

This La Nina event is surprising to me. I thought we would start trending toward more El Nino's. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The WCS daily PDO as of 5/28/24 has plunged further to -2.66, the lowest since at least late Oct of 2022 (not just since Sep of 2023, which dipped as low as ~-2.63 as this graph shows). That means that the equivalent NOAA daily PDO would likely be in the general vicinity of -3.4 to -3.7! The May 2024 NOAA PDO is likely going to be down to the -2.5 to -2.9 range as the WCS May 2024 PDO drops to ~-1.8 to -1.9.

I wonder if for years after this solar max, the -PDO holds.. The cycle started after the 98-99 Solar Max, and the sun was the quietest since the early 1900s, 2000-2020.

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

How many winters in a row now have people hyped that the MJO is going to go phases 7-8-1 only to have it get stuck in phases 4-5-6? With an oncoming Niña, it’s extremely likely to be status quo this coming winter too 

Yeah, the MJO 4-7 pattern has been dominant regardless of El Niño or La Niña since the December 2015 historic +13 departure in the Northeast and record MJO 4-7 amplitude for an El Niño. Every winter since then has been warmer to record warm.  But we have still had a few MJO 8 opportunities along the way.

January 16 was one which lead to the record late January snowstorm and brief subzero readings on Valentine’s Day around NYC. It was still one of our warmest winters on record due to the ridiculous warm start to the season in December. Our next MJO 8 was in February 17. While it delivered a nice blizzard around NYC Metro in February, it was also one of our warmest winters. The 17-18 winter started showing promise with the Arctic cold and the MJO 8 after Christmas and 950 mb Benchmark blizzard in early January. Then the pattern rapidly turned warmer in mid-January as the near record MJO 4-7 emerged. Record warmth in February followed with 80° warmth around NYC Metro. So the backloaded warmth pushed the winter into the warm column. The strat warm blocking and MJO 8 influence occurred too late into March so the winter finished warm again.

The 20-21 winter had just enough warmer MJO activity for the winter to finish above normal. But the amplitude was muted just enough for a really nice snowfall outcome for many especially just inland from the immediate coast. While the 21-22 winter started with more December record +13 warmth this time around  DFW with a very amplified MJO 5-7, we saw nice improvement during January with the coldest month for NYC in years near 30°. Very nice snows especially east of NYC to go with the MJO 8. But the winter still averaged warmer than normal.

Then more MJO 4-7 issues in 22-23 and 23-24 with two completely different ENSO states and continuing record WPAC warm pool. The Pacific was so hostile in December 22, that it completely overpowered our 2nd lowest December -AO on record. Just when we thought the winters couldn’t get any warmer than 22-23, we finished again with one of our warmest winters in 23-24 with very strong MJO 4-7 forcing for such a strong El Niño. This made it an unprecedented 9 warm to record warm winters  in a row for the Northeast. 

Looking forward to next winter, it appears like La Niña and -PDO will be in the menu yet again. I guess the one hope is we can put together some intervals closer to what we saw in the 20-21 and January 22. And not a repeat of the 22-23 La Niña. But this would require some MJO improvement like we got in 20-21 and January 22.

 

 

[raindancewx]

The joke is the precipitation for winter in the tropics doesn't really look like 4-5-6 this year on the Canadian. Which would imply a different state. But I doubt it knows what is happening yet. Will be curious to see what it looks like in a few days.

 

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The joke is the precipitation for winter in the tropics doesn't really look like 4-5-6 this year on the Canadian. Which would imply a different state. But I doubt it knows what is happening yet. Will be curious to see what it looks like in a few days.

 

We’ve been playing this game with the long range climate models for years now and been burned really bad over and over again, last year being a shining example. They show phantom forcing in 8-1-2 that never happens

[Spartman]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This La Nina event is surprising to me. I thought we would start trending toward more El Nino's. 

Maybe start trending toward Neutrals. Feeling this is just not the year for a Nina.

Today's Nino 3.4 chart seems to be off the wall.

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, Spartman said:

Maybe start trending toward Neutrals. Feeling this is just not the year for a Nina.

Today's Nino 3.4 chart seems to be off the wall.

I expect the models to start to get stronger with the La Niña as we go forward. At least a moderate event (ONI) looks very likely, RONI may go strong 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I expect the models to start to get stronger with the La Niña as we go forward. At least a moderate event (ONI) looks very likely, RONI may go strong 

The interesting thing is that the La Niña winters with the lower RONI since 2010 in the multiyear groupings had better snowfall around NYC than the higher RONI ones. This works for the ONI also. It seems to be why each multiyear La Niña since 2010 there was at least one season which stood out with better snowfall than the others. But this hasn’t worked for temperatures with every La Niña winter since 11-12 having above normal temperatures NYC and the Northeast. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

NYC

SON…..23…..RONI….-1.08…snow…..2.3”

NDJ…..21……RONI….-1.24…snow…..17.9”

OND... 20….RONI……-1.52…snow….38.6”

NDJ…..17…..RONI…..-1.25….snow…..40.9”

SON….16…..RONI…..-1.09….snow…..30.2”

OND….11…..RONI…..-1.05…..snow…..7.4”

OND….10…..RONI…..-1.70…..snow….61.9”
 

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

There is another interesting pattern which has worked out since 2010. All the snowiest La Niña winters which included 10-11, 17-18, and 20-21 had the most amplified MJO phases 4-6 in October. The less snowy winters had weaker MJO 4-6 activity. I will update this post after October to see how the MJO pattern did. So maybe we could get some clues for the winter snowfall around NYC. But the one caveat is that all these relationships since 2010 may not continue to work. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the MJO 4-7 pattern has been dominant regardless of El Niño or La Niña since the December 2015 historic +13 departure in the Northeast and record MJO 4-7 amplitude for an El Niño. Every winter since then has been warmer to record warm.  But we have still had a few MJO 8 opportunities along the way.

January 16 was one which lead to the record late January snowstorm and brief subzero readings on Valentine’s Day around NYC. It was still one of our warmest winters on record due to the ridiculous warm start to the season in December. Our next MJO 8 was in February 17. While it delivered a nice blizzard around NYC Metro in February, it was also one of our warmest winters. The 17-18 winter started showing promise with the Arctic cold and the MJO 8 after Christmas and 950 mb Benchmark blizzard in early January. Then the pattern rapidly turned warmer in mid-January as the near record MJO 4-7 emerged. Record warmth in February followed with 80° warmth around NYC Metro. So the backloaded warmth pushed the winter into the warm column. The strat warm blocking and MJO 8 influence occurred too late into March so the winter finished warm again.

The 20-21 winter had just enough warmer MJO activity for the winter to finish above normal. But the amplitude was muted just enough for a really nice snowfall outcome for many especially just inland from the immediate coast. While the 21-22 winter started with more December record +13 warmth this time around  DFW with a very amplified MJO 5-7, we saw nice improvement during January with the coldest month for NYC in years near 30°. Very nice snows especially east of NYC to go with the MJO 8. But the winter still averaged warmer than normal.

Then more MJO 4-7 issues in 22-23 and 23-24 with two completely different ENSO states and continuing record WPAC warm pool. The Pacific was so hostile in December 22, that it completely overpowered our 2nd lowest December -AO on record. Just when we thought the winters couldn’t get any warmer than 22-23, we finished again with one of our warmest winters in 23-24 with very strong MJO 4-7 forcing for such a strong El Niño. This made it an unprecedented 9 warm to record warm winters  in a row for the Northeast. 

Looking forward to next winter, it appears like La Niña and -PDO will be in the menu yet again. I guess the one hope is we can put together some intervals closer to what we saw in the 20-21 and January 22. And not a repeat of the 22-23 La Niña. But this would require some MJO improvement like we got in 20-21 and January 22.

 

 

Kudos to you on that. I completely misinterpreted what the Pacific warm pool meant and how it would relate to el Nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 5/30/2024 at 6:15 AM, snowman19 said:

We’ve been playing this game with the long range climate models for years now and been burned really bad over and over again, last year being a shining example. They show phantom forcing in 8-1-2 that never happens

Well, the Canadian was showing precip patterns that matched with phase 6 last year. I remember raindance referencing that as supportive for his outlook, so I agree that it will be important to watch that as we get closer.

Odds are this run of futility will end when no one expects it to.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, Spartman said:

Maybe start trending toward Neutrals. Feeling this is just not the year for a Nina.

Today's Nino 3.4 chart seems to be off the wall.

I still like the 1988 (-3 months) analog on the ONI until NDJ 2024-25. I think we're going to peak at -1.4 or -1.5C in ASO 2024 through NDJ 2024-25.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I still like the 1988 (-3 months) analog on the ONI until NDJ 2024-25. I think we're going to peak at -1.4 or -1.5C in ASO 2024 through NDJ 2024-25.

There has been some chatter on twitter about this event possibly reaching 73-74/88-89 levels

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Kudos to you on that. I completely misinterpreted what the Pacific warm pool meant and how it would relate to el Nino.

There are a few ways that a warming climate can manifest in our our weather patterns. The first way is linear by which the winters gradually become warmer and snowfall decreases. But there will still be colder and snowier winters in the mix along the way. I think this gradual shift is what most people are more familiar with. But the second way is more non-linear or threshold dependent. The climate models don’t really do well at picking out these temperature thresholds in advance. So they usually don’t become obvious until after a certain period of time has passed. It does appear that we may have crossed a temperature threshold during the 15-16 super El Niño. But we still probably need to see how winter temperatures progress through 2030 in order to know whether it was a shift or just loading the dice for warmer winters with some colder ones still mixed in.

The snowfall experience has been different for us. From 93-94 through 17-18 we saw a steady increase in snowfall. But the off seasons like 97-98, 01-02, 06-07, and 11-12 fell near the bottom of the list. So it was an all or nothing snowfall pattern and lacking the median snowfall seasons which were more common from the 60s to early 90s. While the better seasons were more frequent, we traded the median seasons for near record low seasons. Since the most recent downturn only began in 18-19 for snowfall, more time is need to know if we entered a longer term declining phase or passed a threshold where the much lower seasons replace the higher ones as the norm. In any event, the 2010s record snowfall decade would be a tough act to follow even in a more stable climate absent the warming trend. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There are a few ways that a warming climate can manifest in our our weather patterns. The first way is linear by which the winters gradually become warmer and snowfall decreases. But there will still be colder and snowier winters in the mix along the way. I think this gradual shift is what most people are more familiar with. But the second way is more non-linear or threshold dependent. The climate models don’t really do well at picking out these temperature thresholds in advance. So they usually don’t become obvious until after a certain period of time has passed. It does appear that we may have crossed a temperature threshold during the 15-16 super El Niño. But we still probably need to see how winter temperatures progress through 2030 in order to know whether it was a shift or just loading the dice for warmer winters with some colder ones still mixed in.

The snowfall experience has been different for us. From 93-94 through 17-18 we saw a steady increase in snowfall. But the off seasons like 97-98, 01-02, 06-07, and 11-12 fell near the bottom of the list. So it was an all or nothing snowfall pattern and lacking the median snowfall seasons which were more common from the 60s to early 90s. While the better seasons were more frequent, we traded the median seasons for near record low seasons. Since the most recent downturn only began in 18-19 for snowfall, more time is need to know if we entered a longer term declining phase or passed a threshold where the much lower seasons replace the higher ones as the norm. In any event, the 2010s record snowfall decade would be a tough act to follow even in a more stable climate absent the warming trend. 

Yes, same page. Very fair and reasonable take.

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There has been some chatter on twitter about this event possibly reaching 73-74/88-89 levels

Doubt that, but we shall see.

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doubt that, but we shall see.

As of now, I doubt an ONI that low too, the RONI however may be a different matter

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

As of now, I doubt an ONI that low too, the RONI however may be a different matter

Yep. The ONI is less and less important, anyway as the globe continues to warm.

[Typhoon Tip]

Ha... lol, but it seems like "great - winter's fucked no matter what" being most apropos at this point.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Don't forget that the El Nino (which started in 1986) dissipated much earlier in 1988 than this year. The extra 3 months allowed the 1988-89 to develop into that strength. The La Nina strength was already at -1.4 by MJJ in 1988 and hovered in that -1.4/-1.5 range until ASO, before deepening in strength. If we shift that 3 months forward, then we'd be getting into the -1.4 in ASO, and hover around there through NDJ, but by this point, most La Ninas have reached their peaks.

It's going to be interesting to see if the RONI converges back towards the ONI. If not, the 1973-74 and 1988-89 values for the RONI could be breached.

My guess is that 2024-25 ends up being a moderate la nina on the NOAA ONI (not meeting the criteria of 3-trimonthlys of -1.5C), and a strong la nina on the Eric Webb Ensemble ONI.

[Typhoon Tip]

On 5/29/2024 at 10:52 AM, bluewave said:

The interesting part is that we only had that extended pattern during the cold seasons in 13-14 and 14-15. It was associated with very strong blocking over the NE PAC domain. But the paper doesn’t mention the fact that this pattern has shifted to the warm seasons since then and has been largely absent during the winters. Notice how the models are building the ridge over the Western US during the start of June right on cue. Record Western warm season heat and drought have been a dominant feature  in recent years. A prime example of this was the historic NE PAC blocking and heatwave in the Pacific Northwest during the summer of 2021. 

Just anecdotally/observation on my part but agreed ... there does seem to be less occurrences of ridging over the eastern mid latitude continent during summers.  In fact, I've noticed more success in doing that in May's ... yup.

It's hard to say if this just some fractal at larger scales - repeating until it doesn't and it may take 10 years or whatever.  I have a sneaking suspicion though that coupling the geophysical circumstances of canonical western heights, with greater heat absorption spectrum associated with greenhouse gassing, might be triggering the western heights as the summer dominating mode. In other words, coupling/super-imposing those overwhelms...

Man... should a Sonoran heat release take place, however rarefying that may be ..., it would be interesting if one of these synergistic heat wave events would take place over the eastern continental mid latitudes - that might get it done.  And we'd put PHL-PWM into the VIP class with some of these other locations around the globe filling E.R.s and lighting up social media with conspiracy theories.  the latter's been funny actually.

 

[so_whats_happening]

On 5/29/2024 at 8:43 AM, bluewave said:

It actually seemed to work the opposite way in 2015.  That year featured 462 ACE points in the WPAC for the 4th most active typhoon season on record. This was followed by the record WPAC warm pool for a super El Niño in 15-16 and historic December +13 and record MJO 4-6 for such a strong El Niño. So the WPAC has had no difficulty recharging its heat content. We even saw this in recent years with how rapidly the warm pool near Indonesia rebounded following the fall +IOD patterns. At this point I am not even sure what it would take to cool that region for more than a few months at a time. 
 

Accumulated cyclone energy - Pacific typhoon hide

Season	ACE	TS	TY	STY	Classification
1997	570.4	29	23	11	Extremely active
2004	480.6	31	20	6	Extremely active
1992	470.1	31	21	4	Extremely active
2015	462.9	26	20	9	Extremely active

Yea the idea should be that an extremely active typhoon season should start to cool these waters but the waters only cooled for about a 2-3 month period (if that) before rebounding quite substantially. I also do not know what it will take for this to break and even more surprising was the fact we were near super levels for an El Nino typically we should have had an above average if not extremely active season, we had what was more of a typical average season if not even a more below average season for the WPAC. One thing of note was that we did not have a lot of strong recurving typhoons last year most were weak when they did recurve so maybe that played a role?

In fact we just had our first system form a couple days ago which is close to the later start timeframes we have seen for the WPAC typhoon season. Surprisingly most after some of the extremely active season of strong/super El Ninos.

1st- 1983 June 8th

2nd- 1984 June 7th

3rd- 1998 May 28th

4th- 2016 May 25th

5th- 2024 May 22nd