2024-2025 La Nina

[michsnowfreak]

23 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think the other way around. By Feb the mjo will be back into the warm phases and has historically been a torch month in a nina. 

The weather always had tricks up her sleeves. We already have guesses for Jan ranging from torch to cold shunting the storm track way south (some GAWX love). One thing is for sure. The coldest part of winter historically is Jan into early Feb, so as we hit peak winter climo, imperfect patterns and setups become increasingly workable for those further south, and for us further north, the blues that we love seeing early and late in the season bring suppression worries in mid winter. Emotional roller coaster ahead for this forum no doubt lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I give you credit for not wavering. I really do think you're wrong about a torch January, and even moreso I HOPE you're wrong, but props for sticking to your guns (warm Jan, cold Feb).

I think he's wrong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

We can hope that the MJO transits into 8 so we can get some version of a Jan 22 mismatch pattern with sustained Pacific blocking. But not sure yet if that will occur. We don’t want to see it weaken in earky Jan with another 10 day cooldown before reloading in the warmer 4-5-6 phases again. 

I will be pretty shocked if this doesn't happen....IDK if you glossed over any of my novel of an outlook, but pretty overwhelming evidence for the Jan 2022 mismatch.

Just to be clear, I think overall this winter is another subpar season for most of the east coast.....just better than the past couple.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Long range Euro doesn't look warm at all . Gfs trended to the euro in regards to that. Maybe we will get a muted warmup.

The long range Euro and even GFS are probably struggling with the strength of the Pacific Jet again. Notice how the EPS keeps trying to retrograde the ridge axis long range and boost the heights over Western North America. This is why the model shifted so dramatically in its forecast for next week from earlier runs. It likes to show -EPOs beyond a week out which become weaker as we approach forecast time.We will need a solid MJO 8 to weaken that jet and allow the Pacific side to become more favorable. 
 

New run faster Pacific Jet near Alaska and ridge axis displaced further east 

Old run way too much -EPO and missed the jet and vort near Alaska and ridge axis too far to the west

 

 

[GaWx]

Latest WB Euro for Jan (12/1 forecast) is similar in New England, slightly warmer mid-Atlantic/SE (+2.5F to 3.5F), and cooler Midwest vs prior (11/1):

Latest:

 

Prior:

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Latest WB Euro for Jan (12/1 forecast) is similar in New England, slightly warmer mid-Atlantic/SE (+2.5F to 3.5F), and cooler Midwest vs prior (11/1):

Latest:

 

Prior:

Looks like its picking up on the -WPO/EPO that should be predominate next month.

[donsutherland1]

Toronto picked up 6.6 cm (2.6") of snow yesterday (the daily record of 15.2 cm/6.0" was set in 1898). It's encouraging to see parts of the Great Lakes region starting to build snow totals. It's also encouraging to see the guidance beginning to be less warm for January for that region, as it reinforces the idea of possible near to somewhat above normal snowfall there (Chicago to Toronto).

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Toronto picked up 6.6 cm (2.6") of snow yesterday (the daily record of 15.2 cm/6.0" was set in 1898). It's encouraging to see parts of the Great Lakes region starting to build snow totals. It's also encouraging to see the guidance beginning to be less warm for January for that region, as it reinforces the idea of possible near to somewhat above normal snowfall there (Chicago to Toronto).

That area is generally favored in a Nina for more snow so that’s a good sign for them. Here hopefully any cold we get is less modified. 

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Toronto picked up 6.6 cm (2.6") of snow yesterday (the daily record of 15.2 cm/6.0" was set in 1898). It's encouraging to see parts of the Great Lakes region starting to build snow totals. It's also encouraging to see the guidance beginning to be less warm for January for that region, as it reinforces the idea of possible near to somewhat above normal snowfall there (Chicago to Toronto).

 The bottom portion of the following tweet from  BAMwx (referring to today’s four member 6Z WB CFS ensemble) is imho borderline hype. Going back a few years, BAMwx tended to overhype at times. I hope they’re not reverting back. Someone just posted this tweet in the SE subforum and here was my reply:

“I’d be cautious with WeatherBell CFS maps as they are usually colder than the NOAA and other versions. Also, one run of the CFS ensemble (4 members) like is being shown here (6Z of today) is extremely low in reliability, especially for the period near the end of the run. They jump around a lot. BAMwx shouldn’t imo be showing something like this as it borders on hype. They said “The CFS weekly is on board as well with a monster Alaskan ridge stretching well up into the pole. (-EPO)” as if it were a big deal. But they cherry picked an extra cold run of the very jumpy, unreliable CFS and a WB version (colder than other versions) of it to boot. Don’t get me wrong. I’d love nothing more than for something like this to actually occur. But I don’t like to see hype.”

 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The bottom portion of the following tweet from  BAMwx (referring to today’s four member 6Z WB CFS ensemble) is imho borderline hype. Going back a few years, BAMwx tended to overhype at times. I hope they’re not reverting back. Someone just posted this tweet in the SE subforum and here was my reply:

“I’d be cautious with WeatherBell CFS maps as they are usually colder than the NOAA and other versions. Also, one run of the CFS ensemble (4 members) like is being shown here (6Z of today) is extremely low in reliability, especially for the period near the end of the run. They jump around a lot. BAMwx shouldn’t imo be showing something like this as it borders on hype. They said “The CFS weekly is on board as well with a monster Alaskan ridge stretching well up into the pole. (-EPO)” as if it were a big deal. But they cherry picked an extra cold run of the very jumpy, unreliable CFS and a WB version (colder than other versions) of it to boot. Don’t get me wrong. I’d love nothing more than for something like this to actually occur. But I don’t like to see hype.”

 

I agree. With such low skill scores at that timeframe, they are being exceptionally bold. Even beyond two weeks, the ECMWF weeklies can have very large errors. The operational model has been jumping wildly between solutions on a run-to-run basis for the extended timeframe. The week 4 forecast has also seen significant changes in the forecast pattern over North America in recent runs. There's a lot of uncertainty. Forecasters risk big error by pouncing on the appearance of patterns they like and then assuming that nothing will change between now and the distant forecast period.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Latest WB Euro for Jan (12/1 forecast) is similar in New England, slightly warmer mid-Atlantic/SE (+2.5F to 3.5F), and cooler Midwest vs prior (11/1):

Latest:

 

Prior:

Thanks Larry. Do you have the NA 500mb map handy for January? This temp forecast with the colder SW and SC Canada into the Dakotas and GL seems to have support from the various CFS sources and Cansips fwiw. Thanks again. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will be pretty shocked if this doesn't happen....IDK if you glossed over any of my novel of an outlook, but pretty overwhelming evidence for the Jan 2022 mismatch.

Just to be clear, I think overall this winter is another subpar season for most of the east coast.....just better than the past couple.

I saw your outlook, and that video from BAM weather yesterday. Not to mention the (albeit unreliable) euro and cfs weeklies. Definitely not looking warm in Jan.

[mitchnick]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The bottom portion of the following tweet from  BAMwx (referring to today’s four member 6Z WB CFS ensemble) is imho borderline hype. Going back a few years, BAMwx tended to overhype at times. I hope they’re not reverting back. Someone just posted this tweet in the SE subforum and here was my reply:

“I’d be cautious with WeatherBell CFS maps as they are usually colder than the NOAA and other versions. Also, one run of the CFS ensemble (4 members) like is being shown here (6Z of today) is extremely low in reliability, especially for the period near the end of the run. They jump around a lot. BAMwx shouldn’t imo be showing something like this as it borders on hype. They said “The CFS weekly is on board as well with a monster Alaskan ridge stretching well up into the pole. (-EPO)” as if it were a big deal. But they cherry picked an extra cold run of the very jumpy, unreliable CFS and a WB version (colder than other versions) of it to boot. Don’t get me wrong. I’d love nothing more than for something like this to actually occur. But I don’t like to see hype.”

 

Cansips February forecast looks similar to the last Euro weekly forecast on that tweet fwiw.

 

[michsnowfreak]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. With such low skill scores at that timeframe, they are being exceptionally bold. Even beyond two weeks, the ECMWF weeklies can have very large errors. The operational model has been jumping wildly between solutions on a run-to-run basis for the extended timeframe. The week 4 forecast has also seen significant changes in the forecast pattern over North America in recent runs. There's a lot of uncertainty. Forecasters risk big error by pouncing on the appearance of patterns they like and then assuming that nothing will change between now and the distant forecast period.

I agree 100% Don, but as a gentle reminder (not to you, just for some others) it goes both ways. If the LR guidance shows warm it is equally subject to errors. No one should take any of that seriously, and forecasters posting those maps on videos where the general public are asking for misinterpretations. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. With such low skill scores at that timeframe, they are being exceptionally bold. Even beyond two weeks, the ECMWF weeklies can have very large errors. The operational model has been jumping wildly between solutions on a run-to-run basis for the extended timeframe. The week 4 forecast has also seen significant changes in the forecast pattern over North America in recent runs. There's a lot of uncertainty. Forecasters risk big error by pouncing on the appearance of patterns they like and then assuming that nothing will change between now and the distant forecast period.

Don, what is the alternative? Refrain from long range forecasting?

[GaWx]

39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. With such low skill scores at that timeframe, they are being exceptionally bold. Even beyond two weeks, the ECMWF weeklies can have very large errors. The operational model has been jumping wildly between solutions on a run-to-run basis for the extended timeframe. The week 4 forecast has also seen significant changes in the forecast pattern over North America in recent runs. There's a lot of uncertainty. Forecasters risk big error by pouncing on the appearance of patterns they like and then assuming that nothing will change between now and the distant forecast period.

 In contrast to the above BAMwx tweet showing the extreme -EPO of the WB 6Z CFS ensemble mean, here’s the average of the last 12 CFS ensemble means at Tropical Tidbits for Jan 9-15 (caution still advised as it is for 5 weeks out and it is the CFS): still a decent -EPO but much more subdued than the WB 6Z CFS ens mean (531 dm at MN/Canada border):

 

Now check out the accompanying TT 2m temperature anomaly map: nothing extraordinary at all in the US with NN to slightly BN in the upper Midwest

 

 Compare the above to the WB 6Z CFS ens that BAMwx just tweeted (just one run and WB version) mean for Jan 9-15: this would border on historic for much of the US, especially Midwest (516 dm at MN/Canada border):

And the accompanying WB 6Z CFS ens mean of today 2m temperature anomaly map has insanely ridiculous cold throughout most of the US (10-30F BN lmao) with nearly -30F in the upper Midwest (note the everpresent cold spot near Chicago and relative warm spot N Lake Michigan/Michigan indicative of flawed WB CFS maps):

[40/70 Benchmark]

The only options are to be Bluewave...god love him and how brilliant he is, but refrains from issuing a forecast beyond 2 weeks out....or to do a copious amount of research and hope to have long range guidance bare some similarities to the expectations based upon said research...that, to me, is different from blindly hugging a desired outcome. Long range forecasts are inherently prone to a large degree of error...no way around that.

[michsnowfreak]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 In contrast to the above BAMwx tweet showing the extreme -EPO of the WB 6Z CFS ensemble mean, here’s the average of the last 12 CFS ensemble means at Tropical Tidbits for Jan 9-15 (caution still advised as it is for 5 weeks out and it is the CFS): still a decent -EPO but much more subdued than the WB 6Z CFS ens mean (531 dm at MN/Canada border):

 

Now check out the accompanying TT 2m temperature anomaly map: nothing extraordinary at all in the US with NN to slightly BN in the upper Midwest

 

 Compare the above to the WB 6Z CFS ens that BAMwx just tweeted (just one run and WB version) mean for Jan 9-15: this would border on historic for much of the US, especially Midwest (516 dm at MN/Canada border):

And the accompanying WB 6Z CFS ens mean of today 2m temperature anomaly map has insanely ridiculous cold throughout most of the US (10-30F BN lmao) with nearly -30F in the upper Midwest (note the everpresent cold spot near Chicago and relative warm spot N Lake Michigan/Michigan indicative of flawed WB CFS maps):

I've noticed the cold bias in the WB cfs weeklies, but it also seems that tidbits has a warm bias compared to the actual CPC cfs link. 

[michsnowfreak]

@mitchnick you were asking about the Euro seasonal the other day. Again, take all models with a grain of salt. But throughout Fall it was one of the warmest seasonal models for winter and you'll notice quite a difference between the December run (top) and the November run (bottom).

 

[snowman19]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 In contrast to the above BAMwx tweet showing the extreme -EPO of the WB 6Z CFS ensemble mean, here’s the average of the last 12 CFS ensemble means at Tropical Tidbits for Jan 9-15 (caution still advised as it is for 5 weeks out and it is the CFS): still a decent -EPO but much more subdued than the WB 6Z CFS ens mean (531 dm at MN/Canada border):

 

Now check out the accompanying TT 2m temperature anomaly map: nothing extraordinary at all in the US with NN to slightly BN in the upper Midwest

 

 Compare the above to the WB 6Z CFS ens that BAMwx just tweeted (just one run and WB version) mean for Jan 9-15: this would border on historic for much of the US, especially Midwest (516 dm at MN/Canada border):

And the accompanying WB 6Z CFS ens mean of today 2m temperature anomaly map has insanely ridiculous cold throughout most of the US (10-30F BN lmao) with nearly -30F in the upper Midwest (note the everpresent cold spot near Chicago and relative warm spot N Lake Michigan/Michigan indicative of flawed WB CFS maps):

Just off the top of my head, in the last 5 years, BAMWX has bailed on 4 of their winter forecasts. In 2019, they bailed on their cold/snowy winter forecast at the end of December, in 2021 they bailed in late December, in 2022, they bailed on their winter forecast by the beginning of January, 2023. In 2023-2024, they bailed on February turning extremely blocky/cold/snowy by early February 

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The only options are to be Bluewave...god love him and how brilliant he is, but refrains from issuing a forecast beyond 2 weeks out....or to do a copious amount of research and hope to have long range guidance bare some similarities to the expectations based upon said research...that, to me, is different from blindly hugging a desired outcome. Long range forecasts are inherently prone to a large degree of error...no way around that.

Thanks for the very kind words. When the data I am looking at gets strong enough I do make forecasts beyond 2 weeks. Other times I provide a set of options that I think will be in play further out in time.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just off the top of my head, in the last 5 years, BAMWX has bailed on 4 of their winter forecasts. In 2019, they bailed on their cold/snowy winter forecast at the end of December, in 2021 they bailed in late December, in 2022, they bailed on their winter forecast by the beginning of January, 2023. In 2023-2024, they bailed on February turning extremely blocky/cold/snowy by early February 

3 out of 4 times, it turned out to be correct. Winter never returned after December 2019, December 2022, and February 2024. (To be fair, I was one who bailed on the extremely cold/snowy February 2024. I thought the snow mid-January would become a cold/snowy 2nd half of winter like 2006-07, but when February started out warm, I knew the analog was toast.)

The only one that turned out wrong was December 2021, which of course, had the famous mismatch in January 2022.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I've noticed the cold bias in the WB cfs weeklies, but it also seems that tidbits has a warm bias compared to the actual CPC cfs link. 

TT MONTHLY CFS maps are based on last 12 forecasts of 1 member

TT WEEKLY CFS maps are based on last 12 forecasts of 4 members.

CFS site uses 40 members 4 runs a day for prior 10 days.

So you will get different results, but WB is always inexplicably colder.

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Thanks Larry. Do you have the NA 500mb map handy for January? This temp forecast with the colder SW and SC Canada into the Dakotas and GL seems to have support from the various CFS sources and Cansips fwiw. Thanks again. 

Mitch, Here’s the new WB Euro ensemble mean at H5 for Jan: looks like typical Nina with Aleutian ridge, BN hts far N Plains/Rockies/extreme upper MW, hints of SE ridge:

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The long range Euro and even GFS are probably struggling with the strength of the Pacific Jet again. Notice how the EPS keeps trying to retrograde the ridge axis long range and boost the heights over Western North America. This is why the model shifted so dramatically in its forecast for next week from earlier runs. It likes to show -EPOs beyond a week out which become weaker as we approach forecast time.We will need a solid MJO 8 to weaken that jet and allow the Pacific side to become more favorable. 
 

New run faster Pacific Jet near Alaska and ridge axis displaced further east 

Old run way too much -EPO and missed the jet and vort near Alaska and ridge axis too far to the west

 

 

This has been an issue with the EURO on the PAC side for years now. It grossly underestimates the MJO forcing and the strength of the PAC jet and pops phantom -EPO’s and +PNA’s in the long range, only to take them away as we get closer in time and it finally gets a clue 

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Mitch, Here’s the new WB Euro ensemble mean at H5 for Jan: looks like typical Nina with Aleutian ridge, BN hts far N Plains/Rockies/extreme upper MW, hints of SE ridge:

Doesn't strike me as a very wet pattern on the EC, which just adds to difficulty for getting a decent snow event(s).

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

Thanks for the very kind words. When the data I am looking at gets strong enough I do make forecasts beyond 2 weeks. Other times I provide a set of options that I think will be in play further out in time.

I thought I recalled you explicitly saying that you kept to within two weeks...or maybe it was two week increments? Anyway, point being all we can do is use data as a tool to either lend support to or illustrate potential alternatives to informed expectation.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Cansips February forecast looks similar to the last Euro weekly forecast on that tweet fwiw.

 

Regardless of what happens with January, I’m starting to get more and more confident in a canonical Niña (Aleutian ridge/-PNA) February

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This has been an issue with the EURO on the PAC side for years now. It grossly underestimates the MJO forcing and the strength of the PAC jet and pops phantom -EPO’s and +PNA’s in the long range, only to take them away as we get closer in time and it finally gets a clue 

I think its important to be remain mindful of the bias while still utilizing discretion to determine when it may be at play...for instance, I wasn't suprised to see it doing that in December, but IMHO, its a tougher sell to assume its again in error as we approach the new year. Possible, but the analog data suggests otherwise...perhaps it will prove too aggressive....

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Regardless of what happens with January, I’m starting to get more and more confident in a canonical Niña (Aleutian ridge/-PNA) February

Yea, but I think we will maintain some poleward ridging, so latitude may help, as opposed to a wall-to-wall inferno.