2024-2025 La Nina

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

NG is down another 3%, which is very likely indicative of an overall warmer E US mid-Dec forecast. Also, yesterday’s longer term Euro Weeklies run for late Dec/early Jan was warmer than Sunday’s run overall fwiw.

This has been one of the bigger reversals from cold to warm that we have seen from the EPS weeklies during this time of the year. 
 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202412020000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202412160000

Dec 9-16 new run

 Dec 9-16 old run

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Based on recent trends in the guidance, it seems that the faster pattern break forecast by the CFSv2 will be more likely to verify. If so, the moderation that will start as early as late next weekend/early next week could be the start of a milder regime. Its duration, once it sets in remains to be seen.

I believe the ongoing PNA+ regime will be more an aberration than the norm for this winter. Even as the PDO- has been dented based on recent SSTA changes, it would take an unprecedented rise for it to average positive for January or February. Thus, a PNA-/PNA-neutral regime seems more likely to predominate this winter, as had been depicted on the seasonal guidance.

In the larger context, I continue to expect that Winter 2024-25 would be more variable than the last two winters. It won't rival either of them in terms of warm anomalies, but it should still wind up warmer than normal. Snowfall opportunities should also be more frequent, with the Great Lakes still in line for near normal or even somewhat above normal snowfall.

 

[donsutherland1]

47 minutes ago, GaWx said:

NG is down another 3%, which is very likely indicative of an overall warmer E US mid-Dec forecast. Also, yesterday’s longer term Euro Weeklies run for late Dec/early Jan was warmer than Sunday’s run overall fwiw.

The guidance has turned milder. The CFSv2 was hinting at this for several days and the other guidance fell in line. Often the guidance rushes such transitions, but not this time. I suspect much of the rest of December could be mild in the eastern half of the CONUS (still sufficiently cold at times for snow in the Great Lakes Region) but reduced snowfall chances for NYC and southward. Even the current colder period is on track to be milder than what had previously been shown on the guidance.

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The guidance has turned milder. The CFSv2 was hinting at this for several days and the other guidance fell in line. Often the guidance rushes such transitions, but not this time. I suspect much of the rest of December could be mild in the eastern half of the CONUS (still sufficiently cold at times for snow in the Great Lakes Region) but reduced snowfall chances for NYC and southward. Even the current colder period is on track to be milder than what had previously been shown on the guidance.

 Thanks, Don. Not what I want to see. Thus I’m enjoying the current cold pattern before it ends. 
I’ll be watching to see if NYC can get >3” of snow this month per @bluewaveindicator for rest of season’s snow prospects there. Do you have a prediction of whether or not NYC’s snow will likely exceed 3” this month?

[snowman19]

The guidance has turned milder. The CFSv2 was hinting at this for several days and the other guidance fell in line. Often the guidance rushes such transitions, but not this time. I suspect much of the rest of December could be mild in the eastern half of the CONUS (still sufficiently cold at times for snow in the Great Lakes Region) but reduced snowfall chances for NYC and southward. Even the current colder period is on track to be milder than what had previously been shown on the guidance.

The JMA has also been suggesting the same for mid-late December

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This has been one of the bigger reversals from cold to warm that we have seen from the EPS weeklies during this time of the year. 
 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202412020000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202412160000

Dec 9-16 new run

 Dec 9-16 old run

 

 

And from the same runs looking 2 weeks later, the weeklies did this. It happens all the time. Models are crap shoots. Lots of variations based on projected timing.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The guidance has turned milder. The CFSv2 was hinting at this for several days and the other guidance fell in line. Often the guidance rushes such transitions, but not this time. I suspect much of the rest of December could be mild in the eastern half of the CONUS (still sufficiently cold at times for snow in the Great Lakes Region) but reduced snowfall chances for NYC and southward. Even the current colder period is on track to be milder than what had previously been shown on the guidance.

The fact that the CFS caught it early lends more credibility to that model.

[mitchnick]

54 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And from the same runs looking 2 weeks later, the weeklies did this. It happens all the time. Models are crap shoots. Lots of variations based on projected timing.

Here's even a better example. 2 weeks ago, 11/18 forecast, for the week of 122-12/9 on top. Yesterday's forecast for the same week that's upon us so there's no question how close the prediction will be. 

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Here's even a better example. 2 weeks ago, 11/18 forecast, for the week of 122-12/9 on top. Yesterday's forecast for the same week that's upon us so there's no question how close the prediction will be. 

I’ve been emphasizing how the Euro had 12/2-8 as much too warm not long ago. So, these outlooks are very far from being reliable. But at the same time I’d still rather them not trend warmer like most later weeks did yesterday.

 Aside: NG now -5%/low of day.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

The fact that the CFS caught it early lends more credibility to that model.

I agree. It was even more surprising, as the CFSv2 has been struggling with the ENSO.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks, Don. Not what I want to see. Thus I’m enjoying the current cold pattern before it ends. 
I’ll be watching to see if NYC can get >3” of snow this month per @bluewaveindicator for rest of season’s snow prospects there. Do you have a prediction of whether or not NYC’s snow will likely exceed 3” this month?

The day before Thanksgiving someone had tweeted the actual data on La Nina’s and cold-neutrals in the NYC area, going back to 1945. Long and short of it, they found that the overwhelming majority of the time, when December produced above normal snowfall, the rest of the season (Jan-Feb-Mar) went on to see average above normal snowfall. The exact opposite was true for Decembers that produced below average snowfall. So it definitely backs up @bluewave findings 

[mitchnick]

51 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I’ve been emphasizing how the Euro had 12/2-8 as much too warm not long ago. So, these outlooks are very far from being reliable. But at the same time I’d still rather them not trend warmer like most later weeks did yesterday.

 Aside: NG now -5%/low of day.

We'll get the Euro monthly tomorrow if I'm not mistaken. I think it comes out on the 4th of the month these days??? So we'll have 1 more piece of guidance to fight over! Lol

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We'll get the Euro monthly tomorrow if I'm not mistaken. I think it comes out on the 4th of the month these days??? So we'll have 1 more piece of guidance to fight over! Lol

The NG market is now down a whopping 15% vs a week ago. I learned quite awhile back that this market is smart (as @Stormchaserchuck1knows well) and is thus a great barometer of expectations of temperatures in the E US in the decently predictable medium range. Being down 15% is saying a lot as regards how things looked in the medium range one week ago, when near term cold looked like it might last through the first half of Dec.

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The NG market is now down a whopping 15% vs a week ago. I learned quite awhile back that this market is smart (as @Stormchaserchuck1knows well) and is thus a great barometer of expectations of temperatures in the E US in the decently predictable medium range. Being down 15% is saying a lot as regards how things looked in the medium range one week ago, when near term cold looked like it might last through the first half of Dec.

Legalized gambling really. OK, I  guess, as long as you know that going into it, but it's not for me. You're really trying to predict wx models and not the weather, because by the time the weather becomes certain, you've already lost or made your money.

[roardog]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Legalized gambling really. OK, I  guess, as long as you know that going into it, but it's not for me. You're really trying to predict wx models and not the weather, because by the time the weather becomes certain, you've already lost or made your money.

The reality is that most of the people posting in this thread probably know what type of pattern the models are showing in the medium or long range before the natural gas market does. I don’t really think it’s telling us anything we don’t already know. 

[GaWx]

On 11/27/2024 at 10:33 PM, so_whats_happening said:

I expect the PDO to be under -3 for the month of November which is a good thing to see.

 

On 11/27/2024 at 11:53 PM, GaWx said:

 It looks to me like it will be close. Right now I have Nov MTD near the -2.9 to -3.3 range. My best guess is for -3.0 to -3.2. Jul and Aug were in the -2.9s. It appears that Nov was slightly more negative than those two, but the correlation of NOAA to WCS from month to month has been far from perfect. Thus, another in the -2.9s seems like a legit possibility even though I favor sub -3.0 right now. We’ll know pretty soon. If Nov is sub -3.0, it would be only the second time since 1851 for three sub -3 in a row. The only other time was in 1894.

 Nov NOAA PDO just came in about where I expected (based on adjusting WCS’ PDO) at -3.24 (rise of 0.54 from Oct). This compares to the WCS’ Nov of ~-2.10. So, this is only the 2nd time since 1851 with three sub -3 PDO months in a row. The other time was in 1894 (6 months earlier that year than 2024). We actually only barely missed 7 months in a row of sub -3 as the last 7 have all been sub -2.90:
 

-2.99 -3.16 -2.99 -2.91 -3.54 -3.78 -3.24

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

 Current daily NOAA PDOs are likely in the low -3 range.

@snowman19

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, roardog said:

The reality is that most of the people posting in this thread probably know what type of pattern the models are showing in the medium or long range before the natural gas market does. I don’t really think it’s telling us anything we don’t already know. 

NG largely ignores the long range because it is so highly unreliable. That’s why it focuses on the medium range. It reacts very soon after when medium range runs, especially EPS and GEFS, are released.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Didn't we get one in 2015?

Yea...1972, 1982, 1997, 2015......several more years and we're due.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The guidance has turned milder. The CFSv2 was hinting at this for several days and the other guidance fell in line. Often the guidance rushes such transitions, but not this time. I suspect much of the rest of December could be mild in the eastern half of the CONUS (still sufficiently cold at times for snow in the Great Lakes Region) but reduced snowfall chances for NYC and southward. Even the current colder period is on track to be milder than what had previously been shown on the guidance.

I was a bit nervous for a spell, but feel better about my December call now.

[leo2000]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea...1972, 1982, 1997, 2015......several more years and we're due.

Could be anytime as 1972, 1982 was only 10 years apart. Wasn't 2013-2014 winter a good positive PDO too?. 

[snowman19]

Looks like yesterday’s GEFS may have been onto something

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Could be anytime as 1972, 1982 was only 10 years apart. Wasn't 2013-2014 winter a good positive PDO too?. 

I don't think its imminent given the magnitude of last year's El Nino.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Could be anytime as 1972, 1982 was only 10 years apart. Wasn't 2013-2014 winter a good positive PDO too?. 

The winter of 2013-14 itself wasn't a +PDO, but was one that trended in that general direction. 2014-15 was the +PDO winter, as was the super el nino of 2015-16.

2016-17 was pretty much the opposite of 2013-14, in regards to the PDO.

[qg_omega]

This week is a blip, thoughts most had in early November will verify

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

This week is a blip, thoughts most had in early November will verify

It doesn't look like a long lasting warmup

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Here's even a better example. 2 weeks ago, 11/18 forecast, for the week of 122-12/9 on top. Yesterday's forecast for the same week that's upon us so there's no question how close the prediction will be. 

Your colder example is the exception to the rule which will eventually happen from time to time. But most of the time the models adjust warmer as we get closer we get to the forecast period. The colder pattern than originally forecast around the start of December was the result of the models adjusting to the +AAM rise. But at the same time they underestimated the forcing currently in MJO 4 going over +2.00. Stronger forcing in that part of the world accelerates the Pacific Jet and weakens the -EPO. So you had one event strengthening the -EPO and another weakening it. The height falls showing up near Alaska around the 7th with a faster jet than forecast weren’t there previously when the models were underestimating the forcing near the Maritime Continent. This process lead to the quick change in the week 2 forecast to much warmer than previous runs. This is why I was mention earlier back in this thread that the EPS was probably underestimating the Pacific Jet.

[LakePaste25]

Most of Canada stays cold through the entire run. While we will get warmer, it is a far cry from last December when we had the pacific jet extended all the way to the west coast, and it was just torching our cold source region with mild pacific air. Our source region for cold will get some nice chilling hours, which means any favorable pattern shift will easily bring cold air south later in the month. 

[GaWx]

 The brand new Euro Weeklies (which start Dec 9th) are mainly warmer than yesterday’s run in the E US in week by week comparisons for the last 3 full weeks of Dec. They are all mainly only slightly AN (~+2 to +3 vs 1991-2020 mean) meaning they’re not showing a blowtorch and still may not fully negate the very cold early Dec if they were to verify well.

 The first 2 weeks of Jan in the NE US are about the same as yesterday and are NN.

[snowman19]

It doesn't look like a long lasting warmup

Ummmmm yea it sure does. If the EPS and GEFS are correct, the EPO floodgates open up and it will scour all the arctic air out of Canada. Won’t happen immediately, but it will happen. This pattern looks to have staying power. Don’t believe me? Fine. Here’s Eric Webb and Earthlight:

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Ummmmm yea it sure does. If the EPS and GEFS are correct, the EPO floodgates open up and it will scour all the arctic air out of Canada. Won’t happen immediately, but it will happen. This pattern looks to have staying power. Don’t believe me? Fine. Here’s Eric Webb and Earthlight:

 

 

 

 

I'm probably way outta of pocket for saying this, and it may be a blatantly obvious answer, but...do you prefer cold weather or warm weather?