2024-2025 La Nina

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

I remember the pattern breaking down briefly between Christmas and NYE in December 2013. I think we had a huge cutter around that time to spike temperatures into the 60’s 

Funny story about that. As you know, Detroit had record snowfall, snowcover, and snow depth that winter. There was snow on the ground continuously from Dec 8 - Mar 29. It was deep most of the time and the ONLY exception was a thaw (no torch here) just before Christmas that made Christmas week see snowcover down to T-1" before ramping back up Jan 1st. While it was cold with spotty old snow and a fresh dusting for Christmas, it was literally the only time from early Dec until late Mar that grass was visible.

[bluewave]

Very impressive Nino 1+2 warming as they were able to surpass a warm minimum record in Peru from the super El Niño in 97-98.

 

With sea temperatures unusually high off our coast, minimum temperatures are responding to this warming. The airport at #Lima - #Callao saw an overnight minimum of 19.2°C. This is the highest value for the date since the great #Niño of 1997-8. We are just 4 weeks away from the start of summer and it will be a question of the struggle between the cold and warm Kelvin waves with the winds blowing at low altitudes; whether the warming survives or not. If it survives a warmer than usual summer, that's something to bet on.

[GaWx]

Note the change in the 3 day averaged 4 member CFS within just the last week: shows how blind it apparently (i.e., assuming they’re now on track) was just 2.5-3 wks out:

As of one week ago for 11/30-12/6:

 

Current for 11/30-12/6:

 

 In addition the subsequent fcast week, 12/7-13, has cooled almost as dramatically. However, the subsequent two weeks covering most of last half of Dec along with last 4 days of Dec have remained ~same (mainly mild) and the resulting in a near to slightly above normal Dec overall: NYC now at ~1991-2020 climo vs ~+2 as of a week ago: (Jan now coolest of DJF and Feb warmest)

Will last 1/2 of Dec eventually cool off, too, or is this cold period going to end up being just in 1st half of Dec? Any educated guesses?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Note the change in the 3 day averaged 4 member CFS within just the last week: shows how blind it apparently (i.e., assuming they’re now on track) was just 2.5-3 wks out:

As of one week ago for 11/30-12/6:

 

Current for 11/30-12/6:

 

 In addition the subsequent fcast week, 12/7-13, has cooled almost as dramatically. However, the two weeks covering last half of Dec have remained ~same (mainly mild). Will they eventually cool off, too, or is this cold period going to end up being just in 1st half of Dec? Any educated guesses?

I feel like it's going to just be the first half of December. I see us turning to a warmer than average pattern during the 2nd half of December, which will last through, at the very least, most of January. I think the big question is whether the pattern will revert back to colder than average in late January or early February, but that's way too early to tell at this point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Note the change in the 3 day averaged 4 member CFS within just the last week: shows how blind it apparently (i.e., assuming they’re now on track) was just 2.5-3 wks out:

As of one week ago for 11/30-12/6:

 

Current for 11/30-12/6:

 

 In addition the subsequent fcast week, 12/7-13, has cooled almost as dramatically. However, the subsequent two weeks covering most of last half of Dec along with last 4 days of Dec have remained ~same (mainly mild) and the resulting in a near to slightly above normal Dec overall: NYC now at ~1991-2020 climo vs ~+2 as of a week ago: (Jan now coolest of DJF and Feb warmest)

Will last 1/2 of Dec eventually cool off, too, or is this cold period going to end up being just in 1st half of Dec? Any educated guesses?

Will warm up later December. 

[BuffaloWeather]

The lakes are going to be going nuts. Record warm lake temps with the arctic air lasting about 2 weeks.

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The lakes are going to be going nuts. Record warm lake temps with the arctic air lasting about 2 weeks.

Huge outbreak incoming

[GaWx]

New Euro Weeklies:

1. This week (12/2-8) coldest yet: just 6 days ago was mainly slightly AN

 

2. Following week (12/9-15) coldest yet: 4 days ago was mild

 

3. Week of 12/16-22 coldest yet (NN)