2024-2025 La Nina

[michsnowfreak]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They were comparable snow totals for me.

2018-19 and 2019-20 are actually good examples for when I mention how I worry more about pattern than temps. Certainly doesnt always or even usually work out like that, but it happens.

2018-19: DJF temp 28.9F, snowfall 31.3"

2019-20: DJF temp 32.6F, snowfall 43.7"

 

Other than last winter, 2018-19 was the only real dud snow season in this post-2015 mild era, yet the winter itself was barely warmer than avg, certainly an average-ish temp winter overall. But 2019-20, an average snow season, was the 11th warmest winter on record.

 

[FPizz]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They were comparable snow totals for me.

Down this way 18-19 had 27", 19-20 had 7"

[michsnowfreak]

10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The pattern coming up looks incredible, so many wintry chances. The lakes are going to be firing the first week of December.

It really looks like a great pattern. Per OHWeather, it looks panhandle hook/cutter-ish initially the end of November and looks more clipper-ish by a week into December. 

First dusting of snow this morning, my sister told me my nephews were so excited. I never turn down a flake of snow, whether its January of April, but theres nothing like the excitement/anticipation at the beginning of the snow season/winter. And its even better when the weather cooperates during the holidays.

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Down this way 18-19 had 27", 19-20 had 7"

2018-19 wasnt all bad, just a forgettable snow season here. We also had 3 ice storms and the insane arctic blast in late January. I still remember walking in the park in the bitter cold. The snow was so crunchy and the trees would not stop that eerie creak sound you only get when its SOO cold.

I think for most the clear winner in the post-2015 era is 2017-18. I also think many of us would kill to do a repeat of 2007-2015 or so.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

35 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Down this way 18-19 had 27", 19-20 had 7"

A little more south and a lot of locations had less than an inch of snow in 19-20.

PHL had 17.1" of snow in 18-19 and 0.3" in 19-20, while ACY had 17.8" in 18-19 and 0.5" in 19-20.

[GaWx]

 Natural gas is now up a whopping 7% for the day and is at its highest since way back in Oct of 2023. To those who don’t know, NG price trends reflect well on the trend in EPS and GEFS forecasted E US temperatures, especially for days 10-16. When there’s a day with a significant drop (eventually it has to happen), that would tell me without looking at the ensembles that the colder ensemble E US trend very well may have stopped.

[GaWx]

Note the change for 12/2-8 on the Euro Weeklies in just 4 days:

11/17 run:

 

11/21 run: 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Natural gas is now up a whopping 7% for the day and is at its highest since way back in Oct of 2023. To those who don’t know, NG price trends reflect well on the trend in EPS and GEFS forecasted E US temperatures, especially for days 10-16. When there’s a day with a significant drop (eventually it has to happen), that would tell me without looking at the ensembles that the colder ensemble E US trend very well may have stopped.

This is because of the constant -WPO being forecasted, through Day 16.  Beware though, 2022 started off like this.  2013 did have the pattern change from -PDO in Sept-Oct as a -WPO pattern. 

This is the +NAO/-EPO correlation I have been talking so much about, as is a default pattern right now. I was saying in the Summer that I would actually prefer +NAO in the Wintertime because of this correlation. 

[michsnowfreak]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Note the change for 12/2-8 on the Euro Weeklies in just 4 days:

11/17 run:

 

11/21 run: 

I was just coming to post....weeklies continue to get colder.

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The thing to watch is where the storm track sets up. While the models ave been correcting stronger with the ridge over the Bering Sea into the first week of December, they still have a robust MJO wave running through 4-6. So even if it’s not the dominant factor it can still influence the storm tracks. If it’s strong enough the lows could run close to or just inland from I-95. Then the cold we see on the week 2 means could come in behind any lows rather than in front of them. If the storm tracks are still too warm for the coast, then will know the MJO is still exerting some influence. Should the storm tracks slide east then we’ll know the block near Alaska won out. It will be interesting to see how things go.

If we do in fact see a strong MJO pass through 4-5-6 in December as is being projected and there is no semblance of a typical phase response, then it will be a really huge clue that a different forcing mechanism is trumping it. Agree with that. As far as whether we see a very weak Niña or cold-neutral, there have been cases of cold-neutrals in November that ended up being Nina’s by the New Year. Do I think it’s likely? Probably not, but that said, the models are predicting a pretty healthy trade wind burst in 3.4 next month: