40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's not hype when all the indications show that happening. Locking in for winter??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I don't think the cold to begin December should be a suprise to anyone, as there have been hints for awhile now. What happens during the balance of the month is the question. Idk qgomega promised a RECORD WARM start to December just a few days ago. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Just now, michsnowfreak said: Idk qgomega promised a RECORD WARM start to December just a few days ago. He was probably breaking ballz. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Locking in for winter??? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 31 minutes ago, snowman19 said: WxTwitter has decided that the early December is “locking in” for the winter. The hype is off the charts. I think some people may end up looking really stupid….. @MJO812”locking in for the winter”. Really dangerous making definite proclamations like that. Sets them up to look really ridiculous I can't stand hype either way, but it's no different than some of the Twitter stuff you share of the opposite extreme. Though honestly anyone who uses Twitter as their weather source are just like the people who use their phones AI forecast graphics as their main weather source. They'll forget once it changes the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He was probably breaking ballz. Lol I was joking as he is a known troll. He will disappear until warmth surfaces and then he will be back. I may occasionally comment on snowman or bluewave for their warm bias, but at least they add to the discussion. Huge difference between having a warm (or cold) bias and just being a troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He was probably breaking ballz. If all those times of predicting record warmth by him is intended to break ballz, sorry, there ain't any ballz left in here to break. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I remember last winter I fell for long range guidance and started to think December may be cold....not that it can't happen this season, but the moral of the story is that in this modern climate, one should be skeptical of sustained cold until you see the whites of the weenie. Wow my memory is like steel when it comes to actual past weather, but like mush when it comes to what models predicted lol. I honestly do not remember cold being forecast last December. Usually there are several different routes we can take for a respectable winter if it won't be great, but strong ninos are the ONE and only scenario i go into winter cringing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Lol I was joking as he is a known troll. He will disappear until warmth surfaces and then he will be back. I may occasionally comment on snowman or bluewave for their warm bias, but at least they add to the discussion. Huge difference between having a warm (or cold) bias and just being a troll. Omega knows his stuff, too tbh....the most effective trollls are the ones who know their stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 26 minutes ago, mitchnick said: If all those times of predicting record warmth by him is intended to break ballz, sorry, there ain't any ballz left in here to break. I was referring to early December...that's it. All of the other times the past couple of years he has been right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: WxTwitter has decided that the early December is “locking in” for the winter. The hype is off the charts. I think some people may end up looking really stupid….. @MJO812”locking in for the winter”. Really dangerous making definite proclamations like that. Sets them up to look really ridiculous 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I remember last winter I fell for long range guidance and started to think December may be colder than I had originally thought....not that it can't happen this season, but the moral of the story is that in this modern climate, one should be skeptical of sustained cold until you see the whites of the weenie. 59 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's not hype when all the indications show that happening. 39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Locking in for winter??? 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No 35 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Idk qgomega promised a RECORD WARM start to December just a few days ago. 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He was probably breaking ballz. It takes a sincere courage to be a dedicated weenie on the coastal plain. As always …. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 My area on the CP is usually pretty palatable...even last season, as dreadful as that was, I still ended up well over 30". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 been a long time since I've seen a SE ridge get squashed in the medium range 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: been a long time since I've seen a SE ridge get squashed in the medium range NG is noting the overall colder GEFS/EPS so far today with it up a whopping 7%! Today’s high is the highest since way back in January! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 36 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: been a long time since I've seen a SE ridge get squashed in the medium range Cue @bluewavewithin an hour or two to post some vp plots of the south Pacific and explain why winter will be over by 12/6. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 32 minutes ago, GaWx said: NG is noting the overall colder GEFS/EPS so far today with it up a whopping 7%! Today’s high is the highest since way back in January! @Stormchaserchuck1should find that interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 All kidding aside, first crucial inflection point this winter will be whether or not that pattern is fleeting or has staying power. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Cue @bluewavewithin an hour or two to post some vp plots of the south Pacific and explain why winter will be over by 12/6. If we can hold that day 11 snapshot, then it would be a blend of December 2017 and 2009. It will be interesting to see how long we can sustain that pattern since the MJO indicator in October that I discussed was going for a mismatch in December like we saw in 2020, 2017, and 2010. But since this La Niña was weaker than those years it was uncertain how well it would work. The WWB and AAM rise and ENSO warming we just saw may have been related to the very amplified MJO 5 wave that we saw in October. Still too early to tell how long that day 10 pattern lasts but we should know one way or another by the first week of December. We’ll know at that point if the pattern has staying power or it switches back to something more Niña-like after week 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Just now, bluewave said: If we can hold that day 11 snapshot, then it would be a blend of December 2017 and 2009. It will be interesting to see how long we can sustain that pattern since the MJO indicator in October that I discussed was going for a mismatch in December like we saw in 2020, 2017, and 2010. But since this La Niña was weaker than those years it was uncertain how well it would work. The WWB and AAM rise we just saw may have been related to the very amplified MJO 5 wave that we saw in October. Still too early to tell how long that day 10 pattern lasts but we should know one way or another by the first week of December. We’ll know at that point if the pattern has staying power or it switches back to something more Niña-looking after week 1. Yea, I totally agree with you....just some light-hearted ribbing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 I expected a mismatch period, but not one the magnitude of 2017 and 2020, which also encompassed December...I bit on a more tempered version like Jan 2022. We'll see. 2020 was one of the elite QBO analogs I selected, so there is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: storm vista is only a couple minutes faster pivotal is out already to This would be as large of a mismatch as seeing a guy from these forums with a gal under his arm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I totally agree with you....just some light-hearted ribbing. Even NOAA isn’t sure of what’s going on as this WWB and ENSO warming wasn’t forecast by any of the models along with the sudden jump in global temperatures starting back in 2023. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2452742-the-mystery-of-the-missing-la-nina-continues-and-we-dont-know-why/#:~:text=While sea surface temperatures in,by the end of November. An expected shift to cool La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean has been delayed again. Forecasters now project only a weak event to emerge by the end of November, which is likely to limit the cooling influence of the climate pattern on global average temperatures. “I do not know why it has slowed down,” says Michelle L’Heureux at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). “If someone did, we might have been able to predict it.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 23 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I appreciate the objectivity in the flavor of your posts.....whereas the knock on some of the guys in here is that they only report data that caters to perceived bias. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Things could easily revert to a warmer pattern. Getting snow in early December would be really beneficial 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I appreciate the objectivity in the flavor of your posts.....whereas the knock on some of the guys in here is that they only report data that caters to perceived bias. going to be honest, I really did think that early Dec would be quite warm with the state of the MJO, but it clearly isn't driving the bus. my guess is the higher AAM is leading to a more extended jet, pushing the ridge near the Aleutians closer to AK and leading to more poleward wave breaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: going to be honest, I really did think that early Dec would be quite warm with the state of the MJO, but it clearly isn't driving the bus. my guess is the higher AAM is leading to a more extended jet, pushing the ridge near the Aleutians closer to AK and leading to more poleward wave breaking Yea, that is what Bluewave said. I expected late November and the onse tof December to perhaps be wintry, but expect it to shift warmer within the first severday days. Balance of November-December 2024 Outlook December Analogs: 2022, 2021,1999 The mild pattern currently in place with the approach of mid-November is being driven by phase 2 of the MJO. This warmer pattern should remain in place until about Thanksgiving week, when the passage of the MJO into phase 3 may herald in a colder, and more festive pattern. Long range guidance is beginning to detect that +PNA/-NAO driven regime towards the holiday, which would result in at least colder weather and potentially even the first snowflakes for some locales. The colder pattern looks to be fleeting, as the month of December should turn very mild in short order with the passage of the MJO in phase 4. The mild regime should remain in place until at the very least mid month. The first bonafide stretch of wintry weather looks to hold off until at least mid month for most locales. The polar vortex appears rather unremarkable through the balance of most of November and it would not be surprising for it to even weaken for a time later in the month of December. While the pattern appears variable throughout much of the month of December, the warmth should be much greater in magnitude than the cold and much of the period(s) of polar blocking will be mitigated by an adjoining southeast ridge. Drier than average conditions in conjunction with the anomalous warmth should help to keep snowfall at a premium across much of the region. The appreciable cold periods will be primarily -WPO driven, per the above composite. Temperatures across the mid Atlantic and New England should range anywhere from 3-5F degrees above average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, that is what Bluewave said. I expected late November and the onse tof December to perhaps be wintry, but expect it to shift warmer within the first severday days. Balance of November-December 2024 Outlook December Analogs: 2022, 2021,1999 The mild pattern currently in place with the approach of mid-November is being driven by phase 2 of the MJO. This warmer pattern should remain in place until about Thanksgiving week, when the passage of the MJO into phase 3 may herald in a colder, and. more festive pattern. Long range guidance is beginning to detect that +PNA/-NAO driven regime towards the holiday, which would result in at least colder weather and potentially even the first snowflakes for some locales. The colder pattern looks to be fleeting, as the month of December should turn very mild in short order with the passage of the MJO in phase 4. The mild regime should remain in place until at the very least mid month. The first bonafide stretch of wintry weather looks to hold off until at least mid month for most locales. The polar vortex appears rather unremarkable through the balance of most of November and it would not be surprising for it to even weaken for a time later in the month of December. While the pattern appears variable throughout much of the month of December, the warmth should be much greater in magnitude than the cold and much of the period(s) of polar blocking will be mitigated by an adjoining southeast ridge. Drier than average conditions in conjunction with the anomalous warmth should help to keep snowfall at a premium across much of the region. The appreciable cold periods will be primarily -WPO driven, per the above composite. Temperatures across the mid Atlantic and New England should range anywhere from 3-5F degrees above average. I guess the "Nino hangover" is a thing after all that also makes me wonder if Feb is really going to be that crappy... if we don't have a super strong Nina influence, is it wise to assume so? for the record, I still expect a warm Feb, I'm just not as confident in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I guess the "Nino hangover" is a thing after all that also makes me wonder if Feb is really going to be that crappy... if we don't have a super strong Nina influence, is it wise to assume so? for the record, I still expect a warm Feb, I'm just not as confident in it I didn't go that warm in February...+1 to +3 with near normal snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I expected a mismatch period, but not one the magnitude of 2017 and 2020, which also encompassed December...I bit on a more tempered version like Jan 2022. We'll see. 2020 was one of the elite QBO analogs I selected, so there is that. 95/96 had plenty of warm-ups, so I expect it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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