2024-2025 La Nina

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's a 48 hr forecast. I believe it. I thought you were talking further into the mr/lr. 

One of the long range model biases has been to underestimate the strength and influence of the Pacific Jet. This is why long range modeled colder patterns usually modify the closer in we get. None of the long range models from a few weeks ago were this strong with the Pacific Jet for the record breaking event next few days. Remember the previous 11-15 day forecast was much colder than the present 6-10 day forecast. 

New run

 

Old run

 

 

[roardog]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

Models are useful tools, but especially in the long range they are often wrong. The PDO has risen but right now it’s still nearly -2. It has been very warm so far this fall, I want cold as much as anyone but I’ll believe it when I see it. 

You're absolutely correct and it wouldn't shock me if the models were wrong about the cold in the medium/long range just because as you said they are often wrong. However, if the models were showing a furnace over the US to end November/start December there would be 50 tweets and 10,000 word essays about why the models are correct.

[George001]

6 minutes ago, George001 said:

Models are useful tools, but especially in the long range they are often wrong. The PDO has risen but right now it’s still nearly -2. It has been very warm so far this fall, I want cold as much as anyone but I’ll believe it when I see it. I do buy that we will see the occasional cold spell, but am skeptical that the cold stretches will last as long or longer as the warm stretches. Ultimately though, we won’t really have an idea until around mid December whether this winter is going down the warmer/less favorable path (01-02, 16/17, 21-22 would be analogs if this does happen) or the colder/more favorable path (08-09, 10-11, 13-14 as analogs if this happens). I hope I am wrong but gun to head, I would bet on the warmer path.

On second thought 10-11 isn’t really a good analog. That winter had an extremely strong Nina background state with low solar. The solar being the opposite isn’t enough to eliminate it as an analog, but now with the Nina fizzling out it really isn’t a good match. The whole Nina fizzling out thing has me skeptical of the whole strong Nina background state idea. On the weeklies, Nino 4 is +0.2C, Nino 3.4 is 0.0C, Nino 3 is 0.0C and Nino 1.2 is +0.2C. It is mid November and there is 0 signs of La Niña developing, every ENSO region has actually been warming lately.

[GaWx]

The 12Z EPS came in significantly colder than the 0Z EPS, which itself had been significantly warmer than yesterday’s 12Z.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

On second thought 10-11 isn’t really a good analog. That winter had an extremely strong Nina background state with low solar. The solar being the opposite isn’t enough to eliminate it as an analog, but now with the Nina fizzling out it really isn’t a good match. The whole Nina fizzling out thing has me skeptical of the whole strong Nina background state idea. On the weeklies, Nino 4 is +0.2C, Nino 3.4 is 0.0C, Nino 3 is 0.0C and Nino 1.2 is +0.2C. It is mid November and there is 0 signs of La Niña developing, every ENSO region has actually been warming lately.

in terms of cold analog years, a scenario like 2013-14 makes way more sense than 2010-11

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z EPS came in significantly colder than the 0Z EPS, which itself had been significantly warmer than yesterday’s 12Z.

We’ll see if the later runs can cool enough so RDU doesn’t break their latest first freeze record.

[George001]

15 minutes ago, roardog said:

You're absolutely correct and it wouldn't shock me if the models were wrong about the cold in the medium/long range just because as you said they are often wrong. However, if the models were showing a furnace over the US to end November/start December there would be 50 tweets and 10,000 word essays about why the models are correct.

You are entirely correct that people would believe the models if they showed warmth. Unfortunately the elephant in the room is the current background state, it favors warmth. Until that changes, it makes sense to be skeptical of colder solutions and favor the warmer guidance. 

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z EPS came in significantly colder than the 0Z EPS, which itself had been significantly warmer than yesterday’s 12Z.

Gefs puts us in Phase 6 by the first of December. Assuming an amplitude >1, we get this below. It's not that far off what the models are advertising. Unless I pulled up the wrong map, which is always possible. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

On the flip side of the coin…..There are also others here, who, over the last 10 years have found every way from Sunday to predict cold and snowy winters. Every year, without fail, no matter what the evidence, you just look at the name and you know they’ve found a new excuse to go cold and snowy. So it really does go both ways 

Some of us have done well the last 10 yrs. I'm at 129.4" average the last 11 yrs, the average here is probably around 105-110".

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gefs puts us in Phase 6 by the first of December. Assuming an amplitude >1, we get this below. It's not that far off what the models are advertising. Unless I pulled up the wrong map, which is always possible. 

As long as it matches with the month and ENSO state. So you would want Phase 6, Dec, -ENSO

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Some of us have done well the last 10 yrs. I'm at 129.4" average the last 11 yrs, the average here is probably around 105-110".

You are fortunate to be in an area where the record warm lakes staying open longer works to your advantage with all those cutter storm tracks we have seen.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

On the flip side of the coin…..There are also others here, who, over the last 10 years have found every way from Sunday to predict cold and snowy winters. Every year, without fail, no matter what the evidence, you just look at the name and you know they’ve found a new excuse to go cold and snowy. So it really does go both ways 

Of course it goes both ways, though on this board specifically I don't see the cold biased forecasters. There's a difference between liking/wanting cold and snowy vs forecasting it.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As long as it matches with the month and ENSO state. So you would want Phase 6, Dec, -ENSO

There's no -Enso option, only +Enso or the one I  posted. But it's my understanding the option other than +Enso is neutral or Niña. Happy to be corrected if someone has a map specific for Ninas.

https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Of course it goes both ways, though on this board specifically I don't see the cold biased forecasters. There's a difference between liking/wanting cold and snowy vs forecasting it.

How have you done last 10 yrs? Above average?

[roardog]

This is off topic of Enso but I’m not convinced that the SST anomalies that drive oscillations like the PDO aren’t more of a result of the pattern as opposed to a driver of it. While everyone is watching for those anomalies to start to change, maybe it’s the pattern that needs to change first to get those anomaly changes rolling. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, roardog said:

This is off topic of Enso but I’m not convinced that the SST anomalies that drive oscillations like the PDO aren’t more of a result of the pattern as opposed to a driver of it. While everyone is watching for those anomalies to start to change, maybe it’s the pattern that needs to change first to get those anomaly changes rolling. 

I was wondering something similar today after having eggs this morning and chicken for dinner. :p

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, roardog said:

This is off topic of Enso but I’m not convinced that the SST anomalies that drive oscillations like the PDO aren’t more of a result of the pattern as opposed to a driver of it. While everyone is watching for those anomalies to start to change, maybe it’s the pattern that needs to change first to get those anomaly changes rolling. 

From my observations it’s the 500mb patterns which lead the SST anomalies. All the various warm blobs which are marine heatwaves first start out with s strong 500 mb ridge sitting over the ocean surface. We can remember the 500 mb pattern shifting first in the summer of 2013 and it took over a year for the changes in the actual PDO to show up. Then around 2018 the 500 mb pattern began shift back to a -PDO atmospheric state and it took the ocean a while to respond. The 500mb heights have been rising across the planet leading to more of these marine heatwaves. But once a pattern becomes established in the tropics or subtropics, then there can be a feedback process between the ocean and atmosphere which reinforces the pattern. But it’s possible what we call the PDO may first originate in a warmer tropical region and trigger a 500mb wave train which produces the 500 mb PDO response first. Then the SST response comes later after the 500mb pattern persists long enough.

[michsnowfreak]

11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

How have you done last 10 yrs? Above average?

The last 10 years have basically averaged around avg for snowfall here.

Not being in the direct snowbelt, we still get a boost from increased overall precipitation. So basically, the last 10 years have seen solidly above avg temps but still near avg snowfall. The previous 10 years saw temps slightly below avg but snowfall well above avg. 

At Detroit officially the most recent 30-yr avg (1991-20) is 45.0”, but the longterm period-of-record avg is 41.0”. 

The last 10 years at Detroit have averaged 40.9” (2014-15 thru 2023-24).
The 10 years before that at DTW averaged 54.9” (2004-05 thru 2013-14).

Fun fact- 2024-25 will be my 30th winter measuring snowfall in Wyandotte, MI (first at my parents house then at my own, stayed in the same city). So once this winter is over I will have a long enough period of record for a 30-yr avg lol. 
 

Last winter was the only well-below avg snow season of this post-2015 era everyone likes talking about lol. This is why I say over and over....Im not as worried about temps as I am precip and patterns in the Great Lakes region. I definitely prefer cold, but it is not the end all. I should also add, not just an increase in LES for snowbelts like you, but warmer winters also tend to give us some real dynamic winter storms (we have had quite a few low ratio snows that, had it been 10-1 and a few degrees colder, would really beef up the snow totals). 

[George001]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

On the flip side of the coin…..There are also others here, who, over the last 10 years have found every way from Sunday to predict cold and snowy winters. Every year, without fail, no matter what the evidence, you just look at the name and you know they’ve found a new excuse to go cold and snowy. So it really does go both ways 

I was exactly that a couple years ago. I learned the hard way, all you do is set yourself up for disappointment when you wishcast and have unreasonable expectations. 

[mitchnick]

If you live in the east and like snow, 18z Gfs gives you many opportunities to abuse substances if you're so inclined.

[so_whats_happening]

6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is a really impressive trend. wouldn't be surprised to see waters near Japan cool and waters in the GoAK warm given the upcoming pattern

Here was last years SST anoms from Sept to Dec. You will notice the 'cooling down' of SST anomalies but overall the pattern stuck. This year thus far we have seen a back and forth of the 500mb pattern maybe signaling the end of this insanely negative PDO pattern but it will still take time to evolve and change up the Pacific SST pattern. My hope was that as we moved toward winter we would start to weaken the -PDO value but not fully flip everything this year. This may be occurring but until we start to see reductions in values we will continue to wait.

I will say it is nice to see these 'mismatches' occur but the theme should still be for things to be sent right back to where we started given relaxation in forcings.

 

[Daniel Boone]

15 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Here was last years SST anoms from Sept to Dec. You will notice the 'cooling down' of SST anomalies but overall the pattern stuck. This year thus far we have seen a back and forth of the 500mb pattern maybe signaling the end of this insanely negative PDO pattern but it will still take time to evolve and change up the Pacific SST pattern. My hope was that as we moved toward winter we would start to weaken the -PDO value but not fully flip everything this year. This may be occurring but until we start to see reductions in values we will continue to wait.

I will say it is nice to see these 'mismatches' occur but the theme should still be for things to be sent right back to where we started given relaxation in forcings.

 

Note the big change in the Atlantic over tha last 2 months. The colder SST Anomalies a bit south of desirable I suppose but, looks much more conducive for sustainable 50-50(more like 45-45) than previously . That may assist with upstream blocking. 

[so_whats_happening]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Note the big change in the Atlantic over tha last 2 months. The colder SST Anomalies a bit south of desirable I suppose but, looks much more conducive for sustainable 50-50(more like 45-45) than previously . That may assist with upstream blocking. 

A bit too far south for my liking but we shall see what happens. If anything that cooling we are seeing is only reenforcing an already strong +AMO. I still am liking this as the forecast for this winter so far it does not seem to be steering me wrong.

[Daniel Boone]

5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

A bit too far south for my liking but we shall see what happens. If anything that cooling we are seeing is only reenforcing an already strong +AMO. I still am liking this as the forecast for this winter so far it does not seem to be steering me wrong.

Yeah, i'm with you on the bit south as well but, maybe help support a bit further South -NAO. Of course that could allow for further South tracking disturbances . So, depending on one's location to whether it may be beneficial I suppose. 

[so_whats_happening]

7 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

A bit too far south for my liking but we shall see what happens. If anything that cooling we are seeing is only reenforcing an already strong +AMO. I still am liking this as the forecast for this winter so far it does not seem to be steering me wrong.

I will also add the November from those years... really not that far off. The biggest discrepancy thus far would be the pattern into the eastern US, although we are on our way to more troughing trying to take over for the second half so we might be able to smooth it out a bit.

Just know nothing will ever fit perfectly.

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, i'm with you on the bit south as well but, maybe help support a bit further South -NAO. Of course that could allow for further South tracking disturbances . So, depending on one's location to whether it may be beneficial I suppose. 

The only thing I do worry about and it certainly has been something brought up several times by Bluewave is the linking of the -NAO domain with the SE Ridge pattern. It never is a guarantee but has shown that it does/ has happen quite a bit of recent. With a further south -NAO it could in fact hurt us rather than be beneficial, speculative of course at this time since we have yet to see a pattern really sustain whether warm or cold. What we have had thus far is a lot of swinging back and forth of temps.

[so_whats_happening]

Been awhile since I have posted one of these updates. Life has been a bit much lately...

 

[Daniel Boone]

50 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

The only thing I do worry about and it certainly has been something brought up several times by Bluewave is the linking of the -NAO domain with the SE Ridge pattern. It never is a guarantee but has shown that it does/ has happen quite a bit of recent. With a further south -NAO it could in fact hurt us rather than be beneficial, speculative of course at this time since we have yet to see a pattern really sustain whether warm or cold. What we have had thus far is a lot of swinging back and forth of temps.

Started to mention that, lol. Then I thought, maybe those ssts being where they are may help create a Tendency for LP to keep seperation. However,it may actually cause it to link further west and still do the damage. 

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

We’ll see if the later runs can cool enough so RDU doesn’t break their latest first freeze record.

 The left side of the image below shows the cooling of the 12Z EPS (purple) vs 0Z (yellow) by 6 HDD along with the coldest days being at the end, which helped NG to close in the higher portion of its session range (its lowest of session was before the 12Z models were released thanks largely to the then 10 HDD cooler Mon 0Z EPS vs Sun’s 12Z run).
 
 Again, it will be interesting to see as said by Huffman above whether this next progged cold period gets muted like was the case with late 11/24-7 as a new SE ridge appeared seemingly out of nowhere. This underplaying of the SE ridge has been a forecast problem for years coincident with the very warm W Pac. 
 

 To reiterate: the 11/14 0Z EPS had 11/23-7 with 89 HDD. This 11/18 12Z run despite being cold at the end had only 68 HDD during 11/23-7, a whopping 4 degrees warmer per day (AN) vs the 11/14 0Z run’s BN! Will this later period eventually have the same fate? I hope not. Stay tuned!

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Gefs puts us in Phase 6 by the first of December. Assuming an amplitude >1, we get this below. It's not that far off what the models are advertising. Unless I pulled up the wrong map, which is always possible. 

The last case that fits this criteria was late November/early December 2020.

  2020     11     29    -0.95333     0.77863      6   1.2308950
  2020     11     30    -1.06396     0.66050      6   1.2523063
  2020     12      1    -1.11400     0.51679      6   1.2280341
  2020     12      2    -1.10499     0.36181      6   1.1627164
  2020     12      3    -1.04231     0.21018      6   1.0632901
  2020     12      4    -0.93507     0.07536      6   0.9381018

I'll take my chances with MJO 6. This is what kicked off December 2020 and February 2021.