2024-2025 La Nina

[GaWx]

NG price this evening is up 4% likely due to the end of the 12Z GEFS and EPS being colder than how the late in the run 12Z runs looked Fri/BN in the E US, where NG is most heavily used in cold season. This negates the price drop of Thursday that was largely due to warmer models that day.

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, GaWx said:

NG price this evening is up 4% likely due to the end of the 12Z GEFS and EPS being BN in the E US, where NG is most heavily used in cold season. This negates the price drop of Thursday that was largely due to warmer models that day.

Tbh, it's kinda comical. 

[qg_omega]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

NG price this evening is up 4% likely due to the end of the 12Z GEFS and EPS being colder than how the late in the run 12Z runs looked Fri/BN in the E US, where NG is most heavily used in cold season. This negates the price drop of Thursday that was largely due to warmer models that day.

NG is a heavily manipulated market

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Tbh, it's kinda comical. 

Dan, why?

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

NG is a heavily manipulated market

All mkts are manipulated and NG is no exception. However, despite this, I’ve found NG current price trends to be a good barometer of days 10-15 of ensemble model E US temperature trends.

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Dan, why?

All mkts are manipulated and NG is no exception. However, despite this, I’ve found NG current price trends to be a good barometer of days 10-15 of ensemble model E US temperature trends.

Seems they waffle with Model runs like most other's that depend on the possible weather outcome. No, bad pun toward your Post Larry. Hope you didn't think that. Thanks for the explanation though. Consistency in output's is what anyone or any organization should adhere to instead of jumping the gun one way or another as I'm sure you agree. I apparently misunderstood as the Markets were never my cup of Tea .

     I'd check into more of what you described regarding the energy Markets. I was never involved in them. 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Seems they waffle with Model runs like most other's that depend on the possible weather outcome. No, bad pun toward your Post Larry. Hope you didn't think that. Thanks for the explanation though. Consistency in output's is what anyone or any organization should adhere to instead of jumping the gun one way or another as I'm sure you agree. I apparently misunderstood as the Markets were never my cup of Tea .

     I'd check into more of what you described regarding the energy Markets. I was never involved in them. 

 Here’s a better illustration of a main reason why NG has been up this evening, which is interesting: it is because the 12Z 11/17 EPS (purple) is coldest at the end, Dec 1st, with 20.4 HDD and rising. However, keep in mind that 11/23-7 total HDD are down to only 71 vs 89.5 on the Thu 11/14 0Z run, when NG was about where it has been this evening. Check out 11/26: it’s only at 12 on the 11/17 12Z, which is a whopping 6 BN and the normal for 11/10, 16 days earlier. On the 11/14 0Z, it was way up at 18.1 or near normal!

 This is the nature of these cold biases. They’ll often be too cold late in week 2 and then get back to reality and warm up as those days get closer. Back on 11/14, 11/23-27 were out 9-13 days. Now that these days are only out 6-10, they’ve warmed substantially. They don’t always do that, of course. But they tend to do that more than the opposite (nature of cold bias).

 If I were a betting man, I’d bet based on the cold bias that Dec 1st will end up verifying lower than 20 HDD. Of course it may not but the odds favor that. Also, even though I’m not trading commodities, I’m guessing that NG will be lower than it is now by morning. That’s partially because 11/23-7 are so much warmer than they were as of 3 days ago. But that’s just a guess. If the overnight GEFS/EPS runs turn out cold enough especially late, NG probably wouldn’t turn down in the morning and may even rise further.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

You're right, Larry.  Natural Gas is heavily correlated with long range weather.  I find it to be a good median, or average, of what's to come, and to be honest with several years on this board, I've never seen anyone on here beat it straight up. 

The HDD and CDD stuff you are tracking too is cool. I would trade weather derivatives if the market had more volume. 

Natural Gas gets a lot of volume, so if you do enough studying over time, and can kind of correlate its swings with long range model changes, maybe you can eventually trade it and make $.  There are some methods I think that have an advantage over the market, although they aren't always in signal (like right now ENSO subsurface is neutral). 

[GaWx]

AAM looks solidly Ninoish starting in ~1 week as of this CFS run of 2 days ago fwiw. Will this verify? Warning: these graphs are from the very unreliable 4 member CFS ensemble (you know, the model with the very unrealistic record obliterating  plunge in Nino 3.4 by next month) and they are very jumpy/fickle! Look how much they changed from just 4 days prior (2nd image). So, be careful not to read too much into this:

Prior run wasn’t as solidly Ninoish:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

50 minutes ago, GaWx said:

AAM looks solidly Ninoish starting in ~1 week as of this CFS run of 2 days ago fwiw. Will this verify? Warning: these graphs are from the very unreliable 4 member CFS ensemble (you know, the model with the very unrealistic record obliterating  plunge in Nino 3.4 by next month) and they are very jumpy/fickle! Look how much they changed from just 4 days prior (2nd image). So, be careful not to read too much into this:

Prior run wasn’t as solidly Ninoish:

The GEFS has consistently showed a non-Nina like pattern in the long range for the last 2 days. 

I've said before that ENSO subsurface correlates strongly with the N. Pacific pattern. Since it went Neutral 2 months ago, we haven't seen as much -PNA. 

It actually shows a healthy -WPO in the medium range

and in the long range it's been trending toward a more block pattern, albeit a weak signal right now

Not the super warm pattern I expected for early Dec

[GaWx]

 Looking at TT EPS at H5 and 2M: one can see the huge difference between the 0Z 11/14 run and the 12Z 11/17 run on 11/26:

1) a) 0Z 11/14 EPS for 11/26 at H5: conducive H5 flow allowing CDN air to dominate E US

 

1) b) 0Z 11/14 EPS for 11/26 at 2m: BN dominates east resulting in 18 US HDD

 

Now compare those to the 11/17 12Z EPS

2) a) 12Z 11/17 EPS for 11/26 @H5: sig. SE ridge, which has often been underplayed late in week 2 and beyond for 7-8 years and then appears as get closer in:

2) b) 12Z 11/17 EPS for 11/26 @2m: AN instead of BN dominates east resulting in a mere 12 instead of 18 HDD with that near the normal for way back on 11/10: