2024-2025 La Nina

[GaWx]

 What’s the deal with the latest CFS forecasted record rate of cooling from Nov to Dec in Nino 3.4?

 The latest CFS mean is forecasting a record shattering cooling of 1.0 to -1.2:

 Compare the CFS to these latest runs for Nov to Dec:

-BoM: no cooling/remain at -0.2

-Euro: 0.25 cooling to -0.5

-JMA: 0.3 cooling to -0.6

-MeteoFrance: 0.2 cooling to -0.45

-UKMET: 0.2 cooling to -0.8

 So, CFS’ cooling of 1.0 from Nov to Dec compares to a range of only 0.0 to 0.3 for the latest run of the other five models.

 The record ONI based cooling from Nov to Dec back to 1950 is only 0.45 (1951) followed by 0.41 (1954) and 0.40 (2008 and 2012)! The record warming from Nov to Dec is only 0.43 (1991).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

 

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 What’s the deal with the latest CFS forecasted record rate of cooling from Nov to Dec in Nino 3.4?

 The latest CFS mean is forecasting a record shattering cooling of 1.0 to -1.2:

 Compare the CFS to these latest runs for Nov to Dec:

-BoM: no cooling/remain at -0.2

-Euro: 0.25 cooling to -0.5

-JMA: 0.3 cooling to -0.6

-MeteoFrance: 0.2 cooling to -0.45

-UKMET: 0.2 cooling to -0.8

 So, CFS’ cooling of 1.0 from Nov to Dec compares to a range of only 0.0 to 0.3 for the latest run of the other five models.

 The record ONI based cooling from Nov to Dec back to 1950 is only 0.45 (1951) followed by 0.41 (1954) and 0.40 (2008 and 2012)! The record warming from Nov to Dec is only 0.43 (1991).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

 

It's been forecasting this trade burst (below) for a while. In fact, I posted this prog and the Gfs prog a few days ago in this thread. It's either off its rocker or finally decided to pay attention to It's own forecast.  Lol

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's been forecasting this trade burst (below) for a while. In fact, I posted this prog and the Gfs prog a few days ago in this thread. It's either off its rocker or finally decided to pay attention to It's own forecast.  Lol

 So based on my prior post: IF the CFS cooling in Nino 3.4 from Nov to Dec were to somehow verify closely, it would more than double the old record cooling from Nov to Dec back to 1950 and more than triple the strongest forecasted cooling of any other model (JMA’s 0.3)! For some reason I feel CFS will bust very badly  but we’ll see.

 In light of this likely upcoming huge bust in Nino 3.4, how much weight should be put on the CFS current winter forecast for the E US?

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 So based on my prior post: IF the CFS cooling in Nino 3.4 from Nov to Dec were to somehow verify closely, it would more than double the old record cooling from Nov to Dec back to 1950 and more than triple the strongest forecasted cooling of any other model (JMA’s 0.3)! For some reason I feel CFS will bust very badly  but we’ll see.

 In light of this likely upcoming huge bust in Nino 3.4, how much weight should be put on the CFS current winter forecast for the E US?

If it's cold...a lot. If it's warm...we toss. 

Those are my only 2 rules for seasonal forecasts.  Lol

Honestly, it's a little hard to take a sudden, radical change by any mr/lr model, let alone the Cfs2. Jmho

 

[GaWx]

For the period Sept 1st through Nov 14th back to 1948, 2024 is tied with 2021 for the fewest -EPO (sub -50) days with just 3:

Lowest # of sub -50 EPO days 9/1-11/14 back to 1948 (7 or fewer):
2024: 3

2021: 3

2011: 4

1994: 4

1958: 4

1948: 4

1968: 5

 
I didn’t see any notable correlation to # of sub -50 days one way or the other in the subsequent respective winters, however.

 

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

[BarryStantonGBP]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

It's too early to tell, but 2013-14 is in the early lead for best analog 2025-26. I think 2025 will be a generally rising PDO year, and the extended ENSO neutral phase will continue in 2025-26. (+PDO will come in 2026, and a strong el nino will come right after.)

So an inactive hurricane season on the way since you said 2013-14

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

If it's cold...a lot. If it's warm...we toss. 

Those are my only 2 rules for seasonal forecasts.  Lol

Honestly, it's a little hard to take a sudden, radical change by any mr/lr model, let alone the Cfs2. Jmho

 

Ive noticed with some on here, warm solutions on longterm guidance (even 384 hr op maps) are gospel and cold solutions should be discounted for their unreliability.

Looking at todays 12z ensembles, nothing screams "RECORD warm start to December" like an ensemble mean of solidly colder than avg 850s to start December. 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

We should get a decent EWB leading to some degree of Nino 3.4 cooling since even the EPS is correcting stronger with the MJO over the next week to 10 days. 
 

New run stronger MJO in IO than forecast 

Old run

 

If that’s where the MJO forcing/wave is indeed going to be and going to be that strong, then expect the long range models for early December to change in the next several days. And either Joe Bastardi’s new favorite model (the CFS) is going to score a big coup with the projected huge EWB and rapid Nina strengthening it has for December or it’s totally out to lunch 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If that’s where the MJO forcing/wave is indeed going to be and going to be that strong, then expect the long range models for early December to change in the next several days. And either Joe Bastardi’s new favorite model (the CFS) is going to score a big coup with the projected huge EWB and rapid Nina strengthening it has for December or it’s totally out to lunch 

All 3 ensembles at 12z just got even colder for the first 3 or 4 days of December. 

One thing to consider is the Gefs has really sped up the wave and it's no where near as strong as the Cfs with the wave. In fact, none of the models are. My thinking is maybe the speed of the relatively weak wave depicted on the Gefs won't allow for the warming of an otherwise slower, stronger wave, which is why all ensembles have remained on the colder side come December. Idk, just wondering. We'll see.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Ive noticed with some on here, warm solutions on longterm guidance (even 384 hr op maps) are gospel and cold solutions should be discounted for their unreliability.

Looking at todays 12z ensembles, nothing screams "RECORD warm start to December" like an ensemble mean of solidly colder than avg 850s to start December. 

1. Neither should be considered anywhere near gospel out at hour 360 of even the ensemble means as they are typically of pretty low confidence though they’re much better than their respective operationals.

2. Due to cold bias of ensemble means that has existed for years, especially that far out, quite possibly due to the very warm W Pacific, warm solutions have a somewhat better chance to verify closely than cold solutions.

3. As I assume you and many of the members know, cold bias doesn’t at all mean always too cold or anywhere near always. Sometimes they can be either too warm or about right. But overall, too cold is typically more common than too warm (definition of cold bias).

4. Be that as it may, I’ve also noticed the model trend for the start of Dec has turned colder. But again, it remains to be seen whether or not these colder solutions will actually verify closely. Keep in mind that much earlier in the forecast period (11/23-7) that the EPS warmed considerably from an avg of +0.5 AN HDD per US pop weights to 2.5 HDD BN.

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

All 3 ensembles at 12z just got even colder for the first 3 or 4 days of December. 

One thing to consider is the Gefs has really sped up the wave and it's no where near as strong as the Cfs with the wave. In fact, none of the models are. My thinking is maybe the speed of the relatively weak wave depicted on the Gefs won't allow for the warming of an otherwise slower, stronger wave, which is why all ensembles have remained on the colder side come December. Idk, just wondering. We'll see.

the MJO also isn't a silver bullet. it often correlates to the broader pattern but there are times where it doesn't have much of an impact

I do anticipate the models to get a bit warmer for early Dec, though it doesn't have to happen

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If that’s where the MJO forcing/wave is indeed going to be and going to be that strong, then expect the long range models for early December to change in the next several days. And either Joe Bastardi’s new favorite model (the CFS) is going to score a big coup with the projected huge EWB and rapid Nina strengthening it has for December or it’s totally out to lunch 

As strong as this emerging MJO wave is in the IO, it’s not really having much of an impact on the current pattern. The current 500 mb pattern with record blocking near Aleutians and Greenland is completely different from what we would expect of the MJO were driving the pattern. So at least over the next week to 10 days we’re are getting a mismatch pattern. Need to see that trough stay anchored north of Hawaii which is an atmospheric +PDO pattern going against the -PDO SST. We want this to continue into early December which would mean the October early MJO indicator is working like in 2020 and 2017. But if the pattern begins to shift warmer in later runs as we get to early December, then  we’ll know the MJO is starting to to have an influence. This will be a very high stakes game over the next few weeks which will determine December and potentially the rest of the winter.

Trough north of Hawaii is an effective atmospheric +PDO going against -PDO SST

 

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

As strong as this emerging MJO wave is in the IO, it’s not really having much of an impact on the current pattern. The current 500 mb pattern with record blocking near Aleutians and Greenland is completely different from what we would expect of the MJO were driving the pattern. So at least over the next week to 10 days we’re are getting a mismatch pattern. Need to see that trough stay anchored north of Hawaii which is an atmospheric +PDO pattern going against the -PDO SST. We want this to continue into early December which would mean the October early MJO indicator is working like in 2020 and 2017. But if the pattern begins to shift warmer in later runs as we get to early December, then  we’ll know the MJO is starting to to have an influence. This will be a very high stakes game over the next few weeks which will determine December and potentially the rest of the winter.

Trough north of Hawaii is an effective atmospheric +PDO going against -PDO SST

 

 

Generally agree. But you refer to it as a mismatch.  I don't look at it like that. Something is keeping the ridge out west and the trough in the east. I think it's more that the MJO isn't driving the bus. That's where what I've been harping on, namely, the trough over/near Japan and the resulting trough in the eastern Conus, comes in. I think as long as that remains in the means, the ridge out west is stuck, providing the MJO wave doesn't strengthen more than currently progged or stall (which is not currently progged either.)

Otoh, we either lose the trough over Japan or the MJO waves misbehaves as mentioned above, and Qu-mon and Snowman starting dancing naked, hand in hand, down the middle of I95 in 65-70 degree sunshine. 

Once the MJO phase gets into a more favorable phase, say late Dec-early January, then it's  game on  notwithstanding what happens in December, assuming there's even a game in the east this winter. Lol

That's my wag.

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Generally agree. But you refer to it as a mismatch.  I don't look at it like that. Something is keeping the ridge out west and the trough in the east. I think it's more that the MJO isn't driving the bus. That's where what I've been harping on, namely, the trough over/near Japan and the resulting trough in the eastern Conus, comes in. I think as long as that remains in the means, the ridge out west is stuck, providing the MJO wave doesn't strengthen more than currently progged or stall (which is not currently progged either.)

Otoh, we either lose the trough over Japan or the MJO waves misbehaves as mentioned above, and Qu-mom and Snowman starting dancing naked, hand in hand, down the middle of I95 in 65-70 degree sunshine. 

Once the MJO phase gets into a more favorable phase, say late Dec-early January, then it's  game on  notwithstanding what happens in December, assuming there's even a game in the east this winter. Lol

That's my wag.

Dancing naked holding hands? Really disgusting and uncalled for. Classy. 

[mitchnick]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Dancing naked holding hands? Really disgusting and uncalled for. Classy. 

Actually, I admit to stealing it from 40/70, or something very similar, when he's bustin' chops. Look at it this way, if things turn out your way with the forecast, I'll never hear the end of it and I know it. Lol

 

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Actually, I admit to stealing it from 40/70, or something very similar, when he's bustin' chops. Look at it this way, if things turn out your way with the forecast, I'll never hear the end of it and I know it. Lol

 

If I’m wrong I’m wrong and I’ve been wrong many times before and if you’re wrong I would never insult you, troll you or make fun of you. I don’t play that game

[Wow]

NW Pac really cooling down.. 7 day trend map

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Generally agree. But you refer to it as a mismatch.  I don't look at it like that. Something is keeping the ridge out west and the trough in the east. I think it's more that the MJO isn't driving the bus. That's where what I've been harping on, namely, the trough over/near Japan and the resulting trough in the eastern Conus, comes in. I think as long as that remains in the means, the ridge out west is stuck, providing the MJO wave doesn't strengthen more than currently progged or stall (which is not currently progged either.)

There have been other factors than the MJO driving the pattern this month. The first half of November was roughly similar to the MJO 1 but much more amplified. The Southeast just experienced their warmest first half of November on record which is much warmer than we would typically see with MJO 1 this time of year. My guess is that the forecast pattern for the 2nd half of November is related to the wave break producing the record warmth and 500mb ridge near Iceland. This pattern is lingering in the means to some extent for the next few weeks on the ensembles with blocking near the Aleutians and Greenland with a trough north of Hawaii mimicking a classic +PDO. I use the term mismatch to refer to when the pattern at 500mb deviates from the SST -PDO background.  

It’s too early to speculate on whether this is a transition pattern next few weeks before changing again in early December. But we haven’t had a December with a trough north of Hawaii and in the Northeast since 2017. That was the last time we had a La Niña mismatch following a very amplified MJO 5 in October somewhat like what we saw this October. That is the early indicator I have been discussing since October. It allows the MJO to go more into the background with other factors becoming more dominant and driving the pattern. 

We can go back to the 15-16 super El Niño and only find a small amount of times the hostile MJO 4-7 pattern hasn’t been driving our winter patterns. If we focus on December, then only 2 Decembers out of the last 9 haven’t had the hostile MJO 4-7 run the table. So 7 out of the last 9 Decembers have had a hostile MJO or Pacific. The only two memorable Decembers around NYC since then were 2020 and 2017. Those happened to be the exceptions when the amplified MJO 5 in October was followed by more muted MJO 4-7 activity in December. But as I said back in October, we had the amplitude in October but this La Niña has been much weaker than 2017 and 2020. So the next few weeks into early December will be an interesting test to see if other factors continue to drive the pattern or the MJO becomes more of an active pattern driver and we switch back to a more hostile MJO 5-6 pattern in later model runs.

[GaWx]

NG price this evening is up 4% likely due to the end of the 12Z GEFS and EPS being colder than how the late in the run 12Z runs looked Fri/BN in the E US, where NG is most heavily used in cold season. This negates the price drop of Thursday that was largely due to warmer models that day.

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, GaWx said:

NG price this evening is up 4% likely due to the end of the 12Z GEFS and EPS being BN in the E US, where NG is most heavily used in cold season. This negates the price drop of Thursday that was largely due to warmer models that day.

Tbh, it's kinda comical. 

[qg_omega]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

NG price this evening is up 4% likely due to the end of the 12Z GEFS and EPS being colder than how the late in the run 12Z runs looked Fri/BN in the E US, where NG is most heavily used in cold season. This negates the price drop of Thursday that was largely due to warmer models that day.

NG is a heavily manipulated market

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Tbh, it's kinda comical. 

Dan, why?

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

NG is a heavily manipulated market

All mkts are manipulated and NG is no exception. However, despite this, I’ve found NG current price trends to be a good barometer of days 10-15 of ensemble model E US temperature trends.

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Dan, why?

All mkts are manipulated and NG is no exception. However, despite this, I’ve found NG current price trends to be a good barometer of days 10-15 of ensemble model E US temperature trends.

Seems they waffle with Model runs like most other's that depend on the possible weather outcome. No, bad pun toward your Post Larry. Hope you didn't think that. Thanks for the explanation though. Consistency in output's is what anyone or any organization should adhere to instead of jumping the gun one way or another as I'm sure you agree. I apparently misunderstood as the Markets were never my cup of Tea .

     I'd check into more of what you described regarding the energy Markets. I was never involved in them. 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Seems they waffle with Model runs like most other's that depend on the possible weather outcome. No, bad pun toward your Post Larry. Hope you didn't think that. Thanks for the explanation though. Consistency in output's is what anyone or any organization should adhere to instead of jumping the gun one way or another as I'm sure you agree. I apparently misunderstood as the Markets were never my cup of Tea .

     I'd check into more of what you described regarding the energy Markets. I was never involved in them. 

 Here’s a better illustration of a main reason why NG has been up this evening, which is interesting: it is because the 12Z 11/17 EPS (purple) is coldest at the end, Dec 1st, with 20.4 HDD and rising. However, keep in mind that 11/23-7 total HDD are down to only 71 vs 89.5 on the Thu 11/14 0Z run, when NG was about where it has been this evening. Check out 11/26: it’s only at 12 on the 11/17 12Z, which is a whopping 6 BN and the normal for 11/10, 16 days earlier. On the 11/14 0Z, it was way up at 18.1 or near normal!

 This is the nature of these cold biases. They’ll often be too cold late in week 2 and then get back to reality and warm up as those days get closer. Back on 11/14, 11/23-27 were out 9-13 days. Now that these days are only out 6-10, they’ve warmed substantially. They don’t always do that, of course. But they tend to do that more than the opposite (nature of cold bias).

 If I were a betting man, I’d bet based on the cold bias that Dec 1st will end up verifying lower than 20 HDD. Of course it may not but the odds favor that. Also, even though I’m not trading commodities, I’m guessing that NG will be lower than it is now by morning. That’s partially because 11/23-7 are so much warmer than they were as of 3 days ago. But that’s just a guess. If the overnight GEFS/EPS runs turn out cold enough especially late, NG probably wouldn’t turn down in the morning and may even rise further.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

You're right, Larry.  Natural Gas is heavily correlated with long range weather.  I find it to be a good median, or average, of what's to come, and to be honest with several years on this board, I've never seen anyone on here beat it straight up. 

The HDD and CDD stuff you are tracking too is cool. I would trade weather derivatives if the market had more volume. 

Natural Gas gets a lot of volume, so if you do enough studying over time, and can kind of correlate its swings with long range model changes, maybe you can eventually trade it and make $.  There are some methods I think that have an advantage over the market, although they aren't always in signal (like right now ENSO subsurface is neutral). 

[GaWx]

AAM looks solidly Ninoish starting in ~1 week as of this CFS run of 2 days ago fwiw. Will this verify? Warning: these graphs are from the very unreliable 4 member CFS ensemble (you know, the model with the very unrealistic record obliterating  plunge in Nino 3.4 by next month) and they are very jumpy/fickle! Look how much they changed from just 4 days prior (2nd image). So, be careful not to read too much into this:

Prior run wasn’t as solidly Ninoish:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

50 minutes ago, GaWx said:

AAM looks solidly Ninoish starting in ~1 week as of this CFS run of 2 days ago fwiw. Will this verify? Warning: these graphs are from the very unreliable 4 member CFS ensemble (you know, the model with the very unrealistic record obliterating  plunge in Nino 3.4 by next month) and they are very jumpy/fickle! Look how much they changed from just 4 days prior (2nd image). So, be careful not to read too much into this:

Prior run wasn’t as solidly Ninoish:

The GEFS has consistently showed a non-Nina like pattern in the long range for the last 2 days. 

I've said before that ENSO subsurface correlates strongly with the N. Pacific pattern. Since it went Neutral 2 months ago, we haven't seen as much -PNA. 

It actually shows a healthy -WPO in the medium range

and in the long range it's been trending toward a more block pattern, albeit a weak signal right now

Not the super warm pattern I expected for early Dec

[GaWx]

 Looking at TT EPS at H5 and 2M: one can see the huge difference between the 0Z 11/14 run and the 12Z 11/17 run on 11/26:

1) a) 0Z 11/14 EPS for 11/26 at H5: conducive H5 flow allowing CDN air to dominate E US

 

1) b) 0Z 11/14 EPS for 11/26 at 2m: BN dominates east resulting in 18 US HDD

 

Now compare those to the 11/17 12Z EPS

2) a) 12Z 11/17 EPS for 11/26 @H5: sig. SE ridge, which has often been underplayed late in week 2 and beyond for 7-8 years and then appears as get closer in:

2) b) 12Z 11/17 EPS for 11/26 @2m: AN instead of BN dominates east resulting in a mere 12 instead of 18 HDD with that near the normal for way back on 11/10:

 

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Looking at TT EPS at H5 and 2M: one can see the huge difference between the 0Z 11/14 run and the 12Z 11/17 run on 11/26:

1) a) 0Z 11/14 EPS for 11/26 at H5: conducive H5 flow allowing CDN air to dominate E US

 

1) b) 0Z 11/14 EPS for 11/26 at 2m: BN dominates east resulting in 18 US HDD

 

Now compare those to the 11/17 12Z EPS

2) a) 12Z 11/17 EPS for 11/26 @H5: sig. SE ridge, which has often been underplayed late in week 2 and beyond for 7-8 years and then appears as get closer in:

2) b) 12Z 11/17 EPS for 11/26 @2m: AN instead of BN dominates east resulting in a mere 12 instead of 18 HDD with that near the normal for way back on 11/10:

 

1 thing I  didn't consider yesterday is the delay of the MJO effects. As I think about it, that may explain what we're seeing there should it hold. But models are famous for screwing up timing, so we shall see.

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

1 thing I  didn't consider yesterday is the delay of the MJO effects. As I think about it, that may explain what we're seeing there should it hold. But models are famous for screwing up timing, so we shall see.

That's not to say Eps doesn't still bring in the cold.