2024-2025 La Nina

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx

Oh the irony. Now he’s posting the CFS showing a strong Modoki La Niña come November AND a -PDO
 

 He keeps showing individual runs of WB CFS SSTa prog maps for Nov+ that are way off from other companies’ versions of the same model. Most, if not all, of these WB CFS runs he shows are showing solid BN in the IO, including this one for Nov (he likes showing the cold IO on WB CFS maps to suggest a major drop in global temps is coming):

https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1791842665056616545/photo/2

But TT CFS totally disagrees. Here’s the avg of the last 12 runs of the TT CFS for Nov showing the cold IO on WB CFS isn’t real:

 

 Also, here is TT CANSIPS:

And TT NMME:

 

Bottom line: WB CFS prog maps are badly flawed and thus should be dismissed due to inaccurately portraying the CFS.

[snowman19]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 He keeps showing individual runs of WB CFS SSTa prog maps for Nov+ that are way off from other companies’ versions of the same model. Most, if not all, of these WB CFS runs he shows are showing solid BN in the IO, including this one for Nov (he likes showing the cold IO on WB CFS maps to suggest a major drop in global temps is coming):

https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1791842665056616545/photo/2

But TT CFS totally disagrees. Here’s the avg of the last 12 runs of the TT CFS for Nov:

 

 Also, here is TT CANSIPS:

And TT NMME:

 

Bottom line: WB CFS prog maps are badly flawed and thus should be dismissed due to inaccurately portraying the CFS.

Right. The “cold” in that region of the IO he’s showing corresponds to -IOD, which is actually very likely and will only serve to strengthen the Niña along with the -PDO and -PMM. I guess he doesn’t care that it also shows the -PDO and a central based/Modoki Niña, which contradicts a big part of his analogs but that won’t stop him from using them anyway because they fit his cold and snowy east coast winter agenda, which is why he’s wishcasting high Atlantic ACE as a fallback in case that happens

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Right. The “cold” in that region of the IO he’s showing corresponds to -IOD, which is actually very likely and will only serve to strengthen the Niña along with the -PDO and -PMM. I guess he doesn’t care that it also shows the -PDO and a central based/Modoki Niña, which contradicts a big part of his analogs but that won’t stop him from using them anyway because they fit his cold and snowy east coast winter agenda, which is why he’s wishcasting high Atlantic ACE as a fallback in case that happens

He’s been claiming that these (what I know are very flawed) WB CFS SSTa maps are showing a +PDO, not -PDO. This particular one is ironically showing closer to a neutral PDO (which he isn’t acknowledging and which is still way off from TT CFS, which continues to show solid -PDO). But many of the WB CFS runs have been showing a fake large area of BN in much of the W to CPAC from Hawaii W and NW (just like the fake IO BN) while also showing the warmest NPac anomalies to include a large area off Baja. TT CFS maps have been showing nothing of the sort. And now it looks like WB CFS may be finally starting to correct this BS.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

For starters, I think we can throw out 1949-50. That one came after several enso neutral seasons (1946-47 is the only one in the previous 5 years that resembled an el nino, but that was very weak and very short). 1949-50 is the last first year la nina that didn't result from an el nino transition.

I don't like the 2020-21 analog either. The preceding el nino (which started in 2018) was weak, and 2019-20 was a unicorn season that hovered around 0.4 or 0.5 until it dissipated (this hasn't happened in over 75; the aforementioned 1946-47 comes the closest).

1970-71 and 2007-08 can be okay analogs. The only thing is the el nino of those preceding years was weak. I guess 1970-71 could pass if you consider the first year of the preceding el nino (1968-69) was moderate.

This leaves 1998-99 and 2010-11 as the best of the six analogs on the list.

I'd replace 1949-50 and 2020-21 with 1973-74 and 1988-89.

My list of six best analogs, at this point, would be 1970-71, 1973-74, 1988-89, 1998-99, 2007-08, and 2010-11.

[GaWx]

50 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

For starters, I think we can throw out 1949-50. That one came after several enso neutral seasons (1946-47 is the only one in the previous 5 years that resembled an el nino, but that was very weak and very short). 1949-50 is the last first year la nina that didn't result from an el nino transition.

I don't like the 2020-21 analog either. The preceding el nino (which started in 2018) was weak, and 2019-20 was a unicorn season that hovered around 0.4 or 0.5 until it dissipated (this hasn't happened in over 75; the aforementioned 1946-47 comes the closest).

1970-71 and 2007-08 can be okay analogs. The only thing is the el nino of those preceding years was weak. I guess 1970-71 could pass if you consider the first year of the preceding el nino (1968-69) was moderate.

This leaves 1998-99 and 2010-11 as the best of the six analogs on the list.

I'd replace 1949-50 and 2020-21 with 1973-74 and 1988-89.

My list of six best analogs, at this point, would be 1970-71, 1973-74, 1988-89, 1998-99, 2007-08, and 2010-11.

 For starters, I think we can throw out 2010-11 as 2010-11 is not a valid analog because it had a very strong -NAO in Dec and Jan. Also, I agree we can throw out 2020-21 because it also had a -NAO.
 
 There’s no good reason based on what we know now as well as what long range models are showing to think that there will be anything even close to a strong -NAO next winter. Moreover, -NAO winters have been few and far between since 1979-80. Only 13% of them since then have had a -NAO averaged out over DJF: 1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-11, and 2020-1. All 6 were within two years of a sunspot cycle minimum and had avg sunspot numbers under 35. Next winter will be active with much higher than 35. Coincidence? I don’t know but I maintain that the chances of a solid -NAO next winter similar to DJ of 2010-11 are very low based on the last 45 winters.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

For starters, I think we can throw out 1949-50. That one came after several enso neutral seasons (1946-47 is the only one in the previous 5 years that resembled an el nino, but that was very weak and very short). 1949-50 is the last first year la nina that didn't result from an el nino transition.

I don't like the 2020-21 analog either. The preceding el nino (which started in 2018) was weak, and 2019-20 was a unicorn season that hovered around 0.4 or 0.5 until it dissipated (this hasn't happened in over 75; the aforementioned 1946-47 comes the closest).

1970-71 and 2007-08 can be okay analogs. The only thing is the el nino of those preceding years was weak. I guess 1970-71 could pass if you consider the first year of the preceding el nino (1968-69) was moderate.

This leaves 1998-99 and 2010-11 as the best of the six analogs on the list.

I'd replace 1949-50 and 2020-21 with 1973-74 and 1988-89.

My list of six best analogs, at this point, would be 1970-71, 1973-74, 1988-89, 1998-99, 2007-08, and 2010-11.

The only issues (2) that I have synoptically with 10-11 is the current solar state and the *possible* upcoming Modoki configuration of this La Niña….

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The only issues (2) that I have synoptically with 10-11 is the current solar state and the *possible* upcoming Modoki configuration of this La Niña….

Also, why is a solid -NAO like 2010-11 even being given serious consideration based on its rarity in winter since 1979-80? I’m not saying it can’t occur since just about anything is possible with wx, especially that far out. But that’s beside the point. I’m talking about serious consideration.

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

For starters, I think we can throw out 1949-50. That one came after several enso neutral seasons (1946-47 is the only one in the previous 5 years that resembled an el nino, but that was very weak and very short). 1949-50 is the last first year la nina that didn't result from an el nino transition.

I don't like the 2020-21 analog either. The preceding el nino (which started in 2018) was weak, and 2019-20 was a unicorn season that hovered around 0.4 or 0.5 until it dissipated (this hasn't happened in over 75; the aforementioned 1946-47 comes the closest).

1970-71 and 2007-08 can be okay analogs. The only thing is the el nino of those preceding years was weak. I guess 1970-71 could pass if you consider the first year of the preceding el nino (1968-69) was moderate.

This leaves 1998-99 and 2010-11 as the best of the six analogs on the list.

I'd replace 1949-50 and 2020-21 with 1973-74 and 1988-89.

My list of six best analogs, at this point, would be 1970-71, 1973-74, 1988-89, 1998-99, 2007-08, and 2010-11.

Agree on 1949-50, just had a completely different subsurface going on than any of these other years. 20-21 wasn't too bad of a year think the low solar really helped that year out a lot. If we are strictly going off the idea of a stronger Nino to a mod/strong Nina we take out 1970-71 and 2007-08 as while they did go to mod/strong Nina status they came off relatively weak Nino states just like 20/21 and 1949-50 did.

Here is what the overall 500mb pattern looked like placement overall was still relatively similar of course the most notable difference is the Atlantic pattern as we did have a couple low solar years tossed in there (07-08,20-21). I also got a SST reconstruction for each set of years for may conditions leading into those winters. Not making conclusions which will turn out better as they both seem pretty similar just wanted to present the data with them.

The one with the warmer equatorial pacific matches with the years coming off strong Ninos to strong Ninas. 

The cooler pacific was the group of years I had used in the previous post. 

Here is the current daily SST anomaly.

[so_whats_happening]

23 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Sorry for the delay, yesterday ended up being a lot busier than I expected.

So here is the chart I created for all years going from El Nino to La Nina. I highlighted the years that best fit the request of Westerly QBO, -PDO, High Solar (just noticed 83-84 and 92-93 should be highlighted yellow as they are still rather active years) , +AMO, and Volcanic activity ( a lot of years had a VEI 5 a year or two before the listed ranges). 49-50 QBO was a bit of a guess following the typical ~18 month span of QBO transition, data only went to 1953 for what I have.

Here are the sites used to help create this table.

Volcano Data - https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear

ENSO Data - https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

                      https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

AMO Data - https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

PDO Data - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

Solar Cycle Data - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

QBO Data - https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat

Since ACE has been brought up quite a bit figured I would add this as well: (Named/ Hurricanes/ Major)

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=northatlantic

1949: 16/7/2 96 ACE

1954: 16/7/3 104 ACE 

1964: 13/7/5 153 ACE 

1970: 10/5/2 40 ACE

1973: 8/4/1 48 ACE 

1983: 4/3/1 17 ACE

1988: 12/5/3 103 ACE

1992: 7/4/1 76 ACE

1995: 19/11/5 227 ACE

1998: 14/10/3 182 ACE

2005: 28/15/7 245 ACE

2007: 15/6/2 74 ACE

2010: 19/12/5 165 ACE

2016: 15/7/4 141 ACE

2020: 30/13/6 179 ACE

You can click on each year too to see the tracking map to see what years had solid landfalls. It is interesting to note 1970-71 had a solid cold spill into the US even with low ACE but high solar. 2010-11 had nice cold across the country but large blocking low solar and high ACE. There are definitely odd ball years that arise.

[raindancewx]

Old Mexico has been seeing a severe heat wave this month in the central/southern part of the country. Similar timing and magnitude May 1998. Part of why I've been saying that is a good match to global weather. A lot of the highland climates that have monthly highs peak out around ~80F over a 30 year period have had daily highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. This is directly tied to the absence of the monsoon that normally develops in April-May.

I look at Pachuca as it is higher up than Mexico City. May is normally 78 / 52 (ish) for the high and low. This month has been 88 / 58 so far (+8). Still pretty tolerable for a place that is at 20N, but it is crazy warm for 8,000 feet above sea level. Temperatures on 90%-95% of days are between 30 and 90 in the highlands, so hitting 91 or 92 in Pachuca counts as a pretty major heat wave when it happens multiple times in a week or month. May to date looks like it is +7F or hotter for about the SE 1/3 of MX month to date.

The monsoon seems to begin when high elevation sites in the SW US see higher daily/monthly temps than the high elevation sites of Central/Northern MX. Right now, we're still running about 10F colder than the highlands of Central MX - which is unusual and not a good sign for the monsoon. Normally, ABQ would be 80/50 in May with Pachuca 78/52 and the monsoon rapidly creeping north late month.

[snowman19]

13 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Since ACE has been brought up quite a bit figured I would add this as well: (Named/ Hurricanes/ Major)

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=northatlantic

1949: 16/7/2 96 ACE

1954: 16/7/3 104 ACE 

1964: 13/7/5 153 ACE 

1970: 10/5/2 40 ACE

1973: 8/4/1 48 ACE 

1983: 4/3/1 17 ACE

1988: 12/5/3 103 ACE

1992: 7/4/1 76 ACE

1995: 19/11/5 227 ACE

1998: 14/10/3 182 ACE

2005: 28/15/7 245 ACE

2007: 15/6/2 74 ACE

2010: 19/12/5 165 ACE

2016: 15/7/4 141 ACE

2020: 30/13/6 179 ACE

You can click on each year too to see the tracking map to see what years had solid landfalls. It is interesting to note 1970-71 had a solid cold spill into the US even with low ACE but high solar. 2010-11 had nice cold across the country but large blocking low solar and high ACE. There are definitely odd ball years that arise.

Now that’s interesting. Despite the hype, high Atlantic ACE doesn’t automatically = blocking 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 5/18/2024 at 8:41 AM, snowman19 said:

Yep. -QBO was a big part of the reason 95-96 played out like it did besides being during a solar minimum, +PDO, weak Niña and well before AGW started to have a huge impact on our climate

1995-1996 isn't even a part of the dicussion IMHO....I was more referencing years like 2007-2008.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

 For starters, I think we can throw out 2010-11 as 2010-11 is not a valid analog because it had a very strong -NAO in Dec and Jan. Also, I agree we can throw out 2020-21 because it also had a -NAO.
 
 There’s no good reason based on what we know now as well as what long range models are showing to think that there will be anything even close to a strong -NAO next winter. Moreover, -NAO winters have been few and far between since 1979-80. Only 13% of them since then have had a -NAO averaged out over DJF: 1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-11, and 2020-1. All 6 were within two years of a sunspot cycle minimum and had avg sunspot numbers under 35. Next winter will be active with much higher than 35. Coincidence? I don’t know but I maintain that the chances of a solid -NAO next winter similar to DJ of 2010-11 are very low based on the last 45 winters.

I agree. If we manage another disaster winter in the NE, it will be due to the Pacific....though you can never rule out one well-time NAO pulse leading to a game-changing storm.

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1995-1996 isn't even a part of the dicussion IMHO....I was more referencing years like 2007-2008.

I know you weren’t. Right now, 95-96 is an absolutely horrific analog and should not even be a thought. It only exists as an analog in JB’s weenie world of make believe. In any given year something unexpected can happen, i.e. 19-20 when pretty much everyone was expecting a cold and snowy winter, then the ++IOD came along and ruined the party 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Agree on 1949-50, just had a completely different subsurface going on than any of these other years. 20-21 wasn't too bad of a year think the low solar really helped that year out a lot. If we are strictly going off the idea of a stronger Nino to a mod/strong Nina we take out 1970-71 and 2007-08 as while they did go to mod/strong Nina status they came off relatively weak Nino states just like 20/21 and 1949-50 did.

Here is what the overall 500mb pattern looked like placement overall was still relatively similar of course the most notable difference is the Atlantic pattern as we did have a couple low solar years tossed in there (07-08,20-21). I also got a SST reconstruction for each set of years for may conditions leading into those winters. Not making conclusions which will turn out better as they both seem pretty similar just wanted to present the data with them.

The one with the warmer equatorial pacific matches with the years coming off strong Ninos to strong Ninas. 

The cooler pacific was the group of years I had used in the previous post. 

Here is the current daily SST anomaly.

I think you are weighing ONI too heavily....the extra tropical Pacific was actually fairly similar to 2007 this past winter with the potent +WPO and -PDO. That was also another season in which the forcing was waaaay west, but it just didn't matter. Why? El Nino wasn't driving the bus...the hostile extra tropical Pacific was. The MEI was actually a very good match...they aren't as far apart intensity wise as you may think and neither were huge players.

Being overreliant on the MEI on the heels of what happened last season is indicative of an unwillingess to adjust IMO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you are weighing ONI too heavily....the extra tropical Pacific was actually fairly similar to 2007 this past winter with the potent +WPO and -PDO. That was also another season in which the forcing was waaaay west, but it just didn't matter. Why? El Nino wasn't driving the bus...the hostile extra tropical Pacific was. The MEI was actually a very good match...they aren't as far apart intensity wise as you may think and neither were huge players.

Being overreliant on the MEI on the heels of what happened last season is indicative of an unwillingess to adjust IMO.

This is actually something that I was privy to....the disconnect between the MEI and ONI means that ENSO will not be as prominent a driver and thus extra tropical influences will be. What I failed to recognize is just how anaomalous the WPO would become and that is what ran the show. While it can meana colder outcome due to the reduced likeliehood of a stronger ENSO event inundating theh igher latitudes with warmth, that isn't necessarily the case in the event we end up withman extra tropical driver doing the same thing, which is what the ++WPO/-PDO combo did.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Now that’s interesting. Despite the hype, high Atlantic ACE doesn’t automatically = blocking 

Well, its more of player in La Nina seasons and I think it ties into the extra tropical Pacific more....if we see a very high ACE, may mean more of a -WPO this year is my guess.

My main qualm with 2007 is not ENSO, but rather QBO and potentially ACE.

[snowman19]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, its more of player in La Nina seasons and I think it ties into the extra tropical Pacific more....if we see a very high ACE, may mean more of a -WPO this year is my guess.

My main qualm with 2007 is not ENSO, but rather QBO and potentially ACE.

Yea, assuming we don’t get NAO/AO help, which seems like a real good bet, I guess pray for a poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO), given the Niña, -PDO/-PMM and an MJO probably favoring Maritime Continent and eastern IO phases 4-6, especially if the IOD goes negative, I doubt we see a favorable PNA or EPO for any extended periods

[snowman19]

This +AMO cycle continues to amaze….

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[GaWx]

31 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Thanks for posting this. This shows a dynamic model average ONI low of ~-0.9C in OND/NDJ. I’d probably conservatively subtract ~0.5C to estimate RONI, which would mean ~-1.4C for the implied dynamic model avg RONI prog.

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

Thanks for posting this. This shows a dynamic model average ONI low of ~-0.9C in OND/NDJ. I’d probably conservatively subtract ~0.5C to estimate RONI, which would mean ~-1.4C for the implied dynamic model avg RONI prog.

I’m starting to think you’re right, this may be a case where the RONI shows a solid strong Niña event and the ONI is only like -1.4C or -1.5C trimonthly. One thing I can say with certainly is that there won’t be the MEI disconnect this time around 

[raindancewx]

Just for kicks:

+WPO La Nina: 1988-89, 1998-99, 2000-01, 2005-06, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2020-21, 2022-23

-WPO La Nina:  1950-51, 1954-55, 1955-56, 1956-57, 1964-65, 1970-71, 1971-72, 1973-74, 1974-75, 1975-76, 1983-84, 1984-85, 1995-96, 1999-00, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2021-22.

-WPO & La Nina, recent progression

+WPO, La Nina, recent progression

January-February tends to be much hotter with the +WPO look in the East. Western typical La Nina cold is stronger with the WPO (+WPO is a strong Western cold signal for Feb-Apr centered on NV).

[snowman19]

Just for kicks:
+WPO La Nina: 1988-89, 1998-99, 2000-01, 2005-06, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2020-21, 2022-23
-WPO La Nina:  1950-51, 1954-55, 1955-56, 1956-57, 1964-65, 1970-71, 1971-72, 1973-74, 1974-75, 1975-76, 1983-84, 1984-85, 1995-96, 1999-00, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2021-22.
-WPO & La Nina, recent progression



+WPO, La Nina, recent progression



January-February tends to be much hotter with the +WPO look in the East. Western typical La Nina cold is stronger with the WPO (+WPO is a strong Western cold signal for Feb-Apr centered on NV).

Does the Niña configuration make more of a difference in the WPO response than strength of the event? I.E. East-based vs Modoki?

[brooklynwx99]

On 5/16/2024 at 10:38 AM, snowman19 said:

95-96 was not only weak, it was a very atypical Niña because it had a +PDO. That is why Joe Bastardi is wishcasting a +PDO so hard right now….he is dying for any excuse to say it’s an “analog” so he can add it to his already predetermined list of 10-11, 13-14, 14-15 for this winter. It’s also the reason why he’s hyping a super high ACE Atlantic tropical season with recurves. Anything to predict another very cold and very snowy winter for the east coast 

the only reason it's even a consideration is because it was a moderate Nina (three trimonthlies of -1.0) that came off of a moderate Nino and it has some similarities in the Atlantic for this summer and autumn. it's not weighted high, and there's no reason why any analog should be completely discounted at this range when it's a similar ENSO state. I don't even expect a snowy winter. it'll probably be AN temps and BN snow for the east

also, anyone that's certain about how strong the Nina is going to be and how it'll configure itself is fooling themselves. it isn't even June yet

[brooklynwx99]

btw, this absolutely could be a high ACE Atlantic hurricane season. could even be hyperactive. CSU's hurricane forecast is pretty dire

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

btw, this absolutely could be a high ACE Atlantic hurricane season. could even be hyperactive. CSU's hurricane forecast is pretty dire

I don't think anyone has been doubting the potential for a high Atlantic ACE. Would bump analogs like 1998 and 2005. You could argue 1995 and 2017, too, but I don't like those years for other reasons. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The NAO is much harder to predict than the Pacific, and it could be a -NAO Winter, as the trend for Greenland blocks has picked up over the last few Winter's. The 10mb vortex could be strong with La nina/+qbo combo, but a south, or SE-based -NAO may not be hard to come by. In the 1960s/1970s, -NAO's picked up in the later part of the -PDO phase, then +NAO's picked up in the later part of the +PDO phase in the 1990s..  I monitor May - Sept N. Atlantic SSTs, as they are a really good predictor of the Wintertime NAO state, and so far they are a little negative in prediction (~ -0.5).

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The NAO is much harder to predict than the Pacific, and it could be a -NAO Winter, as the trend for Greenland blocks has picked up over the last few Winter's. The 10mb vortex could be strong with La nina/+qbo combo, but a south, or SE-based -NAO may not be hard to come by. In the 1960s/1970s, -NAO's picked up in the later part of the -PDO phase, then +NAO's picked up in the later part of the +PDO phase in the 1990s..  I monitor May - Sept N. Atlantic SSTs, as they are a really good predictor of the Wintertime NAO state, and so far they are a little negative in prediction (~ -0.5).

Keep me posted on that formula, but I'm not optimistic. 

I was actually on a roll with the AO/NAO for a few years, but last year I was off..expected it close to neutral and it was pretty +.

[snowman19]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think anyone has been doubting the potential for a high Atlantic ACE. Would bump analogs like 1998 and 2005. You could argue 1995 and 2017, too, but I don't like those years for other reasons. 

There were multiple reasons why 95-96 happened, high Atlantic ACE aside, it was before AGW really kicked in, it was -QBO, it was +PDO, it was solar minimum/low geomag/low sunspots, the AMO wasn’t severely positive and it was a weak La Niña with a synoptic pattern that was atypical for a Niña, which was due to the PDO IMO