2024-2025 La Nina

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Milder than avg winters will outpace colder than avg ones, but 5 of the next 100 winters colder than avg? I'll take the over. While we've only had 2 colder than avg winters since 2015-16, we had quite a few from 2000-2015.

The warmer shift began after the 09-10 El Niño during the summers around NYC Metro. We have had 12 out of 15 warmer to record warm summers since then. The warmer winter pattern began in December 2015 with 9 out of 9 warmer to record warmer winters in a row. The 3 cooler summers in 2014,2017, and 2023 were only slightly so. The interesting part of both shifts to warmer were that they were immediately preceded by an impressive cold pattern. June and July 2009 were 2nd coolest such period around NYC Metro. The very next summer was the warmest on record. Then we had the 2nd coldest February on record in 2015 around -11.4. Then the very next winter month in December 2015 came in at an historic +13.3. That December was around 50° degrees which was the equivalent of a very warm November around our area. It was our greatest monthly warm temperature departure. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Since the start of the 2010s, 2014 and 2023 are the only summers with below average temperature departures (using 1981-2010 normals) at PHL. Though if you use JAS (which was warmer than JJA), 2023 turns positive.

2010-11, 2013-14, and 2014-15 are the only winters with below average temperature departures, with JFM 2014 and 2015 being the coldest since 1978.

[donsutherland1]

The final C3S winter 2024-2025 guidance is now in.

Temperatures:

Precipitation:

 

October Comparisons:

Temperatures:

Precipitation:

It should be noted that there is some variation on a month-to-month basis with December featuring the most widespread warmth (monthly average). There can still be shorter periods of cold that don't stand out on seasonal or monthly guidance. The upcoming cold shot for parts of the eastern half of the U.S. this week is one example.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The warmer shift began after the 09-10 El Niño during the summers around NYC Metro. We have had 12 out of 15 warmer to record warm summers since then. The warmer winter pattern began in December 2015 with 9 out of 9 warmer to record warmer winters in a row. The 3 cooler summers in 2014,2017, and 2023 were only slightly so. The interesting part of both shifts to warmer were that they were immediately preceded by an impressive cold pattern. June and July 2009 were 2nd coolest such period around NYC Metro. The very next summer was the warmest on record. Then we had the 2nd coldest February on record in 2015 around -11.4. Then the very next winter month in December 2015 came in at an historic +13.3. That December was around 50° degrees which was the equivalent of a very warm November around our area. It was our greatest monthly warm temperature departure. 

It's definitely been warmer relative to climo on the east coast than here. But another thing we ALL have to remember...is everything is relatively to any specific areas averages. For here, I look at torch winters as disasters, but pretty much anything else, ranging from colder than avg to milder than avg, is really more dependent on the pattern itself to dictate how much snow fun I will have lol. On a more longterm basis, summers have warmed more than winters here. Yet we don't get the extreme max temps at all. It's more about a summer full of warm low temps with a few cool nights thrown in. 

[GaWx]

48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The final C3S winter 2024-2025 guidance is now in.

Temperatures:

Precipitation:

 

October Comparisons:

Temperatures:

Precipitation:

It should be noted that there is some variation on a month-to-month basis with December featuring the most widespread warmth (monthly average). There can still be shorter periods of cold that don't stand out on seasonal or monthly guidance. The upcoming cold shot for parts of the eastern half of the U.S. this week is one example.

Here’s the 0Z 11/10/24 WB CFS 2m temp map for DJF with its typical badly flawed silliness (way too cold E half of US, extreme cold spot S Lake Michigan (8-9F BN, warm spot 250 miles to the NNE, colder N of that (3F AN):

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, roardog said:

I know I’ve said this a million times but there continues to be a huge over reaction to this -PDO trough west/ ridge east pattern we’ve been in since the late 2010s. People act like the planet is so warm now that the right pattern can’t even get us a “cold” winter anymore. The western half of this country had a very cold winter just two years ago. 

There have been several winter shifts along the way since the late 1970s. The last time the CONUS had a top 10 coldest winter was back in the late 1970s with 1978-1979 being the coldest winter on record. 1976-1977 was the last time my area around NYC Metro had a top 10 coldest winter. The period from 1980 to 1994 saw some very impressive Arctic outbreaks where all-time cold was recorded around Chicago. 1994 marks the last time that Canada had a top 10 coldest winter. Places like the Great Lakes were able to register a top 10 coldest regional cold as recently as 2013-2014.  But this was more localized than the late 1970s which had much more expansive cold.

What has occurred since the 2015-2016 super El Niño is without precedent with 9 consecutive warm to record warm winter around the Northeast. But areas closer to the center of the continent were able to get some impressive but brief Arctic outbreaks in January 2019 and the 2020-2021 winter. But even the warmth in these regions has overshadowed these brief cold episodes.

There are two factors at play. One the planet is warming to the rate that Arctic outbreaks are becoming shorter and less intense. The other is that marine heatwaves in key forcing regions tend to favor these giant standing waves which allow warm 500 mb ridge to stall over areas like we saw numerous times in recent years. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Here’s the 0Z 11/10/24 WB CFS 2m temp map for DJF with its typical badly flawed silliness (way too cold E half of US, extreme cold spot S Lake Michigan (8-9F BN, warm spot 250 miles to the NNE, colder N of that (3F AN):

Wxbell is purposely skewing the maps cold. There’s no other explanation. They are totally corrupt, lead by Joe Bastardi. Without the weenies forking them over the subscription money, they’d go bankrupt

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Here’s the 0Z 11/10/24 WB CFS 2m temp map for DJF with its typical badly flawed silliness (way too cold E half of US, extreme cold spot S Lake Michigan (8-9F BN, warm spot 250 miles to the NNE, colder N of that (3F AN):

It's absurd. The correct map, and I deliberately use "correct," as that's from the NCEP website:

It's unfortunate that WB continues to post flawed maps. At the end of the winter, it would be a useful exercise to compare the actual outcomes to the official NCEP CFSv2 map and the WB version.

[snowman19]

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Here’s the 0Z 11/10/24 WB CFS 2m temp map for DJF with its typical badly flawed silliness (way too cold E half of US, extreme cold spot S Lake Michigan (8-9F BN, warm spot 250 miles to the NNE, colder N of that (3F AN):

Just to be clear, Don posted C3S (euro) not CFS.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's absurd. The correct map, and I deliberately use "correct," as that's from the NCEP website:

It's unfortunate that WB continues to post flawed maps. At the end of the winter, it would be a useful exercise to compare the actual outcomes to the official NCEP CFSv2 map and the WB version.

I bookmark both and check them both. While the WB version does have the cold flaw, it should be noted that regardless the cfs changes quite frequently. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Wxbell is purposely skewing the maps cold. There’s no other explanation. They are totally corrupt, lead by Joe Bastardi. Without the weenies forking them over the subscription money, they’d go bankrupt

There are tons of products on WB, and the cfs is the only product with a noticeable flaw.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Really nice -NAO on the 12z GEFS, through the entire run. Does this at the end:

I would watch for the Pacific -pna/+epo pattern to flex in future runs though. 

[mitchnick]

First time PDO has been <2 in a while.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

36 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

First time PDO has been <2 in a while.

Almost looks like late 2012. I expect the PDO to move towards neutral in 2025, like it did in 2013. +PDO el nino in 2026-27 or 2027-28?

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

There are tons of products on WB, and the cfs is the only product with a noticeable flaw.

Most products I have seen are fine.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Really nice -NAO on the 12z GEFS, through the entire run. Does this at the end:

I would watch for the Pacific -pna/+epo pattern to flex in future runs though. 

The ensembles went from a huge vortex over and around Alaska with a trough down the west coast to above normal heights in Alaska and the west coast. A huge change over a day or so. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Most products I have seen are fine.

Same. I did renew my yearly membership last april because it's so handy for winter, but they raised their price I think in May or June so don't think I'm renewing again.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

The ensembles went from a huge vortex over and around Alaska with a trough down the west coast to above normal heights in Alaska and the west coast. A huge change over a day or so. 

I would love for a wintry/snowy Thanksgiving. The last snowy one was 2013. Since then we have had numerous early/mid November snowfalls, snow on Halloween, and more recently some nice Thanksgiving weekend snowfalls (2021, 2023). Might as well pull a 1975 (very warm November then a Thanksgiving snowstorm).

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

First time PDO has been <2 in a while.

Indeed the WCS daily is the highest in 2.5 months. But just for those who aren’t aware, NOAA has been running ~1 lower than WCS for a long time. So, the equivalent NOAA daily is ~~-2.89.

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

First time PDO has been <2 in a while.

There may be some future rising of the PDO if these SSTA maps are reasonably accurate. Top map is current SSTA and bottom map is changes of SSTA the last 7 days that's showing a decent hit to Pacific warm pool.

 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Indeed the WCS daily is the highest in 2.5 months. But just for those who aren’t aware, NOAA has been running ~1 lower than WCS for a long time. So, the equivalent NOAA daily is ~~-2.89.

You didn't get the memo Larry? South of NE, we only post positive winter signs! Lol 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

There may be some future rising of the PDO if these SSTA maps are reasonably accurate. Top map is current SSTA and bottom map is changes of SSTA the last 7 days that's showing a decent hit to Pacific warm pool.

 

If that continues it could be a game changer.

[Daniel Boone]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's absurd. The correct map, and I deliberately use "correct," as that's from the NCEP website:

It's unfortunate that WB continues to post flawed maps. At the end of the winter, it would be a useful exercise to compare the actual outcomes to the official NCEP CFSv2 map and the WB version.

Kind of looks like the same map each time. Lol 

[Daniel Boone]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Wxbell is purposely skewing the maps cold. There’s no other explanation. They are totally corrupt, lead by Joe Bastardi. Without the weenies forking them over the subscription money, they’d go bankrupt

Sure looks that way . Used to Media Propaganda could be dealt with legally in some instances but, not since 2013 I believe, when the Law was dropped. 

[michsnowfreak]

23 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Sure looks that way . Used to Media Propaganda could be dealt with legally in some instances but, not since 2013 I believe, when the Law was dropped. 

I honestly don't think that's why the maps are flawed. What the reason is, I don't know. But NONE of the other maps show these flaws, and WB has a lot of long range maps.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyone know what the final SAI/SCE were?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Are we getting AS and SO numbers for the MEI today or tomorrow, or has this been discontinued again?

[brooklynwx99]

it's nice that the MJO was able to cycle through the cold phases. looks like we'll be making a pass towards them as we approach the holidays

[bluewave]

Western Trough starting to make a comeback after not being much of a factor in September and October. The competing marine heatwaves combining with the MJO 1 in November is much warmer than past events. So a relatively cooler phase in the past for much of the CONUS is getting muted while the warmer phase in October was greatly amplified.