2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

however the baseline quasi persistent/super synopsis of the hemisphere gets to that Can of who knows what it's SIPing, 500 mb distribution on whole aside, just in quadrature that would have to be a historically positive north atlantic oscillation mode to put it softly.  in fact ... so much so that i question any likeliness for that to succeed.  

the problem with 'SIP's distribution is that it must be all but entirely discounting any negative phase state from ever happening.   the nao is a very stochastic field, more so than any other index - few reasons for that..  but that variability therein would have to never be variable, if it is always positive.   just sayn'

that would be truly remarkable success.  i don't doubt ( or support either way ) a +nao predominating season, it's the amount of that.  if a 3-mon mean were 70% +, that would probably nearing the top positives in history;  that CanSIPs would need it to be there or exceeding that to get a 3-mon mean that coherent.  

it'll be an interesting to monitor. 

This is what I said to @snowman19when he pointed out that 2016-2017 had somewhat of a +PDO, so we may see even less snowfall relative to that year. While that is true, I do not expect the polar domain to be quite so hostile FWIW.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I really wish a “wow” reaction would be added!

 This means not only a record -PDO month back 170 years, but also a new record for 2 months of -3.67 breaking old record of July-Aug 1950’s -3.31. Also, there are additional multi-month records like for Jan-Oct of 2024’s -2.59, which beats the -2.55 of Jan-Oct of 1894.

Interesting from a weather dork, statistical standpoint, but really not important in the grand scheme. We all know the PDO will be -5.56 in the seasonal mean and have known since like May.

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I really wish a “wow” reaction would be added!

 This means not only a record -PDO month back 170 years, but also a new record for 2 months of -3.67 breaking old record of July-Aug 1950’s -3.31. Also, there are additional multi-month records like for Jan-Oct of 2024’s -2.59, which beats the -2.55 of Jan-Oct of 1894.

 The following Jan-Mar after the very strong -PDO of 1894 was actually quite cold in most of the US. The PDO rose sharply to the -0.86 to -0.64 range during JFM. This included what is still the coldest Feb on record for the SE US and other locations.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

ASO ONI (NOAA): -0.2

ASO RONI: -0.76

[bluewave]

On 11/2/2024 at 11:51 AM, BuffaloWeather said:

Just ran the numbers at Buffalo. The last negative month was Nov at -0.7. This November looks very torchy. Likely the warmest year on record for us here. 

Dec: +8.0

Jan: +3.9

Feb: +8.4

Mar: +6.7

Apr: +4.4

May: +5.8

Jun: +3.3

Jul: +2.5

Aug: +0.7

Sep: +4.5

Oct: +3.0

2024 is currently in the lead in your area just ahead of 2012 through November 3rd.

 

Time Series Summary for Buffalo Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-11-03	55.7	0
2	2012-11-03	54.9	0
3	2021-11-03	54.5	0
4	1921-11-03	53.9	0
5	2016-11-03	53.8	0
6	2020-11-03	53.7	0
-	1991-11-03	53.7	0
7	2023-11-03	53.5	0
-	2017-11-03	53.5	0
8	1949-11-03	53.4	0
9	1998-11-03	53.3	0
10	1955-11-03	53.1	0

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The following Jan-Mar after the very strong -PDO of 1894 was actually quite cold in most of the US. The PDO rose sharply to the -0.86 to -0.64 range during JFM. This included what is still the coldest Feb on record for the SE US and other locations.

While obviously the climate has changed significantly since then, this is clearly the nadir of this cold phase and we should begin to see a recovery in the trend line over the next few years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

ASO ONI (NOAA): -0.2

ASO RONI: -0.76

1984 is the only event that was this meager from an ASO ONI standpoint that went on to sniff moderate (-1.1). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Warmer Jan-Feb composite in the SE 1/2 of the CONUS

What I find interesting is that the month-of composite for PDO is much stronger than lead time, but a good amount, meaning that a lot of times in the past it has fluctuated between the Fall and Winter (although unlikely to happen this year). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Interesting from a weather dork, statistical standpoint, but really not important in the grand scheme. We all know the PDO will be -5.56 in the seasonal mean and have known since like May.

With the way it's been hitting for the last 4 Winter's, this much of a monthly record is something to consider. I had been calling it -3.. but not almost -4.  There might be thing driving the global pattern that are driving the PDO too, though.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 10/29/2024 at 2:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Some similarities with respect to winter in these analog packages.

Yeah, that roll forward has been working out great this year. I don't see why it won't continue through the Winter.. 

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

That’s the strongest the Aleutian Ridge out near the Dateline has been from January into October. 

 

2020 5631.444
2021 5647.413
2022 5622.112
2023 5646.048
2024 5655.698

[GaWx]

10 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

ASO ONI (NOAA): -0.2

ASO RONI: -0.76

1. Thus, the difference between ONI and RONI has steadied out in the low to mid 0.50s after having peaked in the 0.60s earlier in the year. This makes me think it might not drop below 0.50 anytime soon.

2. Most SST anomaly measures have risen over the last week or so fwiw. Is it possible the low has already been reached? Opinions?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s the strongest the Aleutian Ridge out near the Dateline has been from January into October. 

Matches the Hadley Cell expansion North and South of Nino 3.4 that we have generally seen, since the 97-98 Super El Nino:

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Matches the Hadley Cell expansion North and South of Nino 3.4 that we have generally seen, since the 97-98 Super El Nino:

Nearly all of the winter Aleutian Ridge 500mb anomaly since 1999 is a result of 16-17 to 23-24.

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nearly all of the winter Aleutian Ridge 500mb anomaly since 1999 is a result of 16-17 to 23-24.

Yeah but the rest of the year has had that ENSO-Hadley Cell correlation. Although ENSO's effects are usually strongest in the Wintertime in the Northern Hemisphere, I'm making a point that the 25-year pattern is La Nina-like, as it expands to the whole year, and Southern Hemisphere, too.  We did seem to "re up" after the 15-16 Strong Nino. And now a nearly -4 PDO 1 year after 23-24 Strong Nino. I wonder why that is, why Strong Nino's are starting longer term La Nina-like phases. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah but the rest of the year has had that ENSO-Hadley Cell correlation. Although ENSO's effects are usually strongest in the Wintertime in the Northern Hemisphere, I'm making a point that the 25-year pattern is La Nina-like, as it expands to the whole year, and Southern Hemisphere, too.  We did seem to "re up" after the 15-16 Strong Nino. And now a nearly -4 PDO 1 year after 23-24 Strong Nino. I wonder why that is, why Strong Nino's are starting longer term La Nina-like phases. 

Strong el ninos and their ENSO states the following year

1957-58 -> No la nina in 1958-59 (weak el nino, followed by 4 ENSO neutral years)

1965-66 -> No la nina in 1966-67 (2 ENSO neutral years, followed by el nino)

1972-73 -> Strong la nina in 1973-74 (first of 3 straight la nina years)

1982-83 -> Weak la nina in 1983-84 (followed by moderate la nina in 1984-85)

1986-88 -> Strong la nina in 1988-89

1991-92 -> No la nina in 1992-93 (2 ENSO neutral years, followed by el nino)

1997-98 -> Strong la nina in 1998-99 and 1999-2000

2009-10 -> Strong la nina in 2010-11

2015-16 -> Weak la nina in 2016-17 and 2017-18

2023-24 -> Either no la nina or weak la nina in 2024-25

Since 1972-73, every strong el nino was followed up with a la nina, with the exception of 1992 (and that was affected by Mt. Pinatubo). If we don't get an official la nina, if we removed Pinatubo, it would be the first time following a strong el nino since 1966 that we don't get a la nina.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Strong el ninos and their ENSO states the following year

Using ONI of +2.1, it's perfect, 4/4, 10/10 follow-up La Nina's.  

72-73: followed by 3 years of La Nina

82-83: followed by 2 years of La Nina

97-98: followed by 3 years of La Nina

15-16: followed by 2 years of La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Using ONI of +2.1, it's perfect, 4/4, 10/10 follow-up La Nina's.  

72-73: followed by 3 years of La Nina

82-83: followed by 2 years of La Nina

97-98: followed by 3 years of La Nina

15-16: followed by 2 years of La Nina

Caveat being I wouldn't quite place last year's El Nino in that grouping...perhaps 1972, but def. not the rest.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2023-24 belongs in the same group as 2009-10. Both years had significantly lower MEI peaks than all the other strong el ninos.

1982-83: 2.9

1986-88: 2.1

1991-92: 2

1997-98: 2.6

2009-10: 1.3

2023-24: 1.1 (comparable to 2006-07, a weak el nino year)

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2023-24 belongs in the same group as 2009-10. Both years had significantly lower MEI peaks than all the other strong el ninos.

1982-83: 2.9

1986-88: 2.1

1991-92: 2

1997-98: 2.6

2009-10: 1.3

2023-24: 1.1 (comparable to 2006-07, a weak el nino year)

Yes, which is deceiving beause the western Pacific was so different. Weaker MEI/RONI merely mean that that exatra tropical regions will be more influential, but it doesn't necessarily mean cold.

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies mean, while warm dominated til the end once again, have a change late (not on prior runs) toward a weakening SPV that approaches the climo avg fwiw:

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm about halfway home on this year's effort...bringing a renewed perspective this year that is less ENSO saturated and more CC conscious. Hope to post early next week.

[George001]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies mean, while warm dominated til the end once again, have a change late (not on prior runs) toward a weakening SPV that approaches the climo avg fwiw:

I’m expecting a stronger than normal PV this year but this is much more promising than the earlier runs where it was near record strong and showed no signs of weakening. 

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah but the rest of the year has had that ENSO-Hadley Cell correlation. Although ENSO's effects are usually strongest in the Wintertime in the Northern Hemisphere, I'm making a point that the 25-year pattern is La Nina-like, as it expands to the whole year, and Southern Hemisphere, too.  We did seem to "re up" after the 15-16 Strong Nino. And now a nearly -4 PDO 1 year after 23-24 Strong Nino. I wonder why that is, why Strong Nino's are starting longer term La Nina-like phases. 

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the rapid warming of the subtropical Pacific and Atlantic occurred with the super El Niño temperature jump in 15-16. This warming has been associated with the rapid expansion of the subtropical ridge near the East Coast of the U.S. and East of Japan to south of the Aleutians. This pattern has only become reinforced by the further record global temperature jump over the past 15 to 18 months. So this could be the result of a threshold effect related to the much warmer base state. It’s why the North Pacific pattern is so different from past -PDO instances.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a widely used measure of the temperature variability in the North Pacific Ocean. The PDO is the result of a well-known technique called empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis that isolates the most energetic modes of variability of the analyzed variable. The first time EOF analysis was applied to oceanographic data was in the 1970's when it was used to identify the most energetic modes of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). The first EOF of North Pacific SST has proved so useful as a measure that it received the moniker PDO. Our analysis suggests that a period of persistent marine heatwaves in the North Pacific since 2014 has been so powerful that this first mode of variability of SST has fundamentally changed and the PDO may not be as useful an indicator as it once was.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the rapid warming of the subtropical Pacific and Atlantic occurred with the super El Niño temperature jump in 15-16. This warming has been associated with the rapid expansion of the subtropical ridge near the East Coast of the U.S. and East of Japan to south of the Aleutians. This pattern has only become reinforced by the further record global temperature jump over the past 15 to 18 months. So this could be the result of a threshold effect related to the much warmer base state. It’s why the North Pacific pattern is so different from past -PDO instances.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a widely used measure of the temperature variability in the North Pacific Ocean. The PDO is the result of a well-known technique called empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis that isolates the most energetic modes of variability of the analyzed variable. The first time EOF analysis was applied to oceanographic data was in the 1970's when it was used to identify the most energetic modes of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). The first EOF of North Pacific SST has proved so useful as a measure that it received the moniker PDO. Our analysis suggests that a period of persistent marine heatwaves in the North Pacific since 2014 has been so powerful that this first mode of variability of SST has fundamentally changed and the PDO may not be as useful an indicator as it once was.

 

Thanks for that article by the way....I referenced it a couple of times in my work this season.

[snowman19]

@Gawx Even more confidence in my guess of a hostile NAO this winter. And any word on the October QBO number?

Edit: @GaWx Assuming a Dec/Jan peak, I wonder if we meet or eclipse the WQBO record (at 30mb) of +15??
 

[snowman19]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies mean, while warm dominated til the end once again, have a change late (not on prior runs) toward a weakening SPV that approaches the climo avg fwiw:

Hard sell on the SPV weakening. The Euro was awful with doing this last year early on in November/December. And there’s a massive trough in Eurasia exactly where you would want a ridge, which is going to allow the SPV to strengthen as much as it wants

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks for that article by the way....I referenced it a couple of times in my work this season.

I am glad you were able to use it. The Euro seasonal that just updated continues this expanded subtropical ridge and marine heatwave pattern for the entire run. While not looking at exact temperature departures and 500 mb height anomalies, it’s noteworthy how little cold air is available in the Northern Hemisphere for the winter forecast in the means.

 

 

 

 

[qg_omega]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm about halfway home on this year's effort...bringing a renewed perspective this year that is less ENSO saturated and more CC conscious. Hope to post early next week.

Nothing has changed, maritime heatwave if anything is strongest its ever been.  Warm and snow less winter is on its way +4 to +8.