2024-2025 La Nina

[snowman19]

We are about to see massive strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex during November

[GaWx]

0Z Euro ensemble mean next 2 wks: still well below normal US pop weighted HDDs (~2/3 of the normal) and well above normal CDDs (~4 times the norm): normally US HDDs are ~23 times CDDs during this period but this fcast has HDDs only ~3.5 times CDDs. HDDs are rising and are forecasted to get to almost normal on 11/2 and 11/9, but then they fall back and still are not averaging anywhere near normal overall.
 

 Instead, the fcast has HDDs averaging a whopping nearly ~3.5 BN/day. In other words, the pop weighted US is forecasted to average a whopping ~3.5F/day AN for the period 10/31 through 11/13!
 
 The fcast averages 7.4 HDD/day, which is the normal US pop wted HDDs for Oct 24th. That means that this period overall is forecasted to be at US HDD levels from ~2 weeks earlier.

 

[brooklynwx99]

it's encouraging seeing the MJO being able to get into 8-1-2 with some strength. the TPV being strong will make Greenland blocking harder to come by, which has been expected

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's encouraging seeing the MJO being able to get into 8-1-2 with some strength. the TPV being strong will make Greenland blocking harder to come by, which has been expected

I think the past decade or so has aptly demonstrated that Pacific cooperation is more important than blocking in this stout, CC enhanced PAC cold phase.

[chris21]

43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's encouraging seeing the MJO being able to get into 8-1-2 with some strength. the TPV being strong will make Greenland blocking harder to come by, which has been expected

I bet the Nov 5th-15th period will trend colder on guidance for the northeast. Wouldn’t even be shocked to see some flurries at some point at my location at 3800 feet on the NC/Tenn border. We had about a half inch Oct 15th (3 or 4 inches 700 feet up the mountain). Been unbelievably warm since.

[snowman19]

[George001]

1 hour ago, chris21 said:

I bet the Nov 5th-15th period will trend colder on guidance for the northeast. Wouldn’t even be shocked to see some flurries at some point at my location at 3800 feet on the NC/Tenn border. We had about a half inch Oct 15th (3 or 4 inches 700 feet up the mountain). Been unbelievably warm since.

I’m not sure, are phases 7-2 cold in the east in November? 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

Mild has been fully expected by me for Nov and at least Dec. This map is actually not that dry.

[chris21]

1 hour ago, chris21 said:

I bet the Nov 5th-15th period will trend colder on guidance for the northeast. Wouldn’t even be shocked to see some flurries at some point at my location at 3800 feet on the NC/Tenn border. We had about a half inch Oct 15th (3 or 4 inches 700 feet up the mountain). Been unbelievably warm since.

8-1-2 start becoming colder the later into November we get. As for flurries, I was just referring to my location which averages 40 plus inches of snow a year over the past twenty years.

[GaWx]

Euro Weeklies through mid Dec no change: very strong SPV, solidly AN temps E 2/3 of US.

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Euro Weeklies through mid Dec no change: very strong SPV, solidly AN temps E 2/3 of US.

Makes sense because the MJO will be back in the warm phases by then. It’s late Dec onward that I’m watching for.