2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

A real La Nina is actually cold for the CONUS. Colder than El Nino. A lot of the stuff in the western Pacific has cluttered the raw ENSO effect in recent years. And a lot of people even believe that PNA is the main effect. It's actually the North Pacific High

CONUS as a whole, but the east will take a true El Nino over La Nina...and I say "true " El Nino because I am not referring to that hellish hybrid that we had last year.

[bluewave]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems a bit inconsistent to post about how strong the cold ENSO signal is in the north Pacific, then then focus on the ONI and insist that its weak. If we saw these competing MC forces result in the very mild "El Nina" winter for the NE last year, then why wouldn't this La Nina act stronger??

I think much of the NE would also take a 2021-2022 outcome at this point. I do agree skepticism is warranted regarding December. I don't even recall December 2020 being that great where I am. December 2019 had a great event....

 

The inconsistency is the fact that we haven’t gotten such a strong La Niña signal before in October with the RONI, ONI, or any other La Niña metric as low as it is. Past La Niña years with such a strong -PDO were much more robust in the Nina SSTs. So we are getting multiple disconnects across the board including the early MJO indicator.

December 2020 was the best for NYC snowfall in over a decade. Some would argue it was the best December since 2010 but not of that magnitude of greatness. The unusual south based block resulted in NYC finishing warmer than average at +1.7 even with a trough in the East.

I can remember commenting in the NYC thread how the October MJO was acting more like we saw in 17-18 and 10-11 later in October. But then the historic November warmth arrived exceeding 2015. So many back in the NY thread were very concerned about the winter after seeing so much November warmth like we saw in the Niña background years like 2011 and 2001. 

Then the Euro started forecasting a great looking December pattern as we got closer to the start of December. This was pretty much the opposite of the seasonal model issued back on November 5th. So the early MJO indicator beat the Euro seasonal forecast. But that was a much stronger La Niña than this year as per the RONI and ONI metrics. The -PDO wasn’t as strong as we are seeing now. So perhaps the strong La Niña influence is being realized more in the -PDO index this time than at any other time in the past.

The October Euro forecast for December doesn’t look so great. It’s got a coast to coast warm ridge across the U.S. We’ll wait to see what it comes up with on November 5th. If it continues along the same lines as October 5th, then we’ll need as big a miss as it had back in 2020 for the early MJO indicator to keep working as it has each La Niña year since 10-11.

http://seasonal.meteo.fr/content/PS-previ-cartes?language=fr

Current Euro 500 mb forecast for December

 

2020 forecast big miss to the delight of the winter fans around NYC

Forecast 

 

Verification

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CONUS as a whole, but the east will take a true El Nino over La Nina...and I say "true " El Nino because I am not referring to that hellish hybrid that we had last year.

Yeah, the biggest anomalies are over the Midwest, then it neutralizes further east. Stronger STJ gives true El Nino over La Nina an edge for east coast snow lovers. I personally like weeks in the 20's with 2-6" snow events. That's what you'll get possibly in a La Nina if the NAO cooperates. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The inconsistency is the fact that we haven’t gotten such a strong La Niña signal before in October with the RONI, ONI, or any other La Niña metric as low as it is. Past La Niña years with such a strong -PDO were much more robust in the Nina SSTs. So we are getting multiple disconnects across the board including the early MJO indicator.

December 2020 was the best for NYC snowfall in over a decade. Some would argue it was the best December since 2010 but not of that magnitude of greatness. The unusual south based block resulted in NYC finishing warmer than average at +1.7 even with a trough in the East.

I can remember commenting in the NYC thread how the October MJO was acting more like we saw in 17-18 and 10-11 later in October. But then the historic November warmth arrived exceeding 2015. So many back in the NY thread were very concerned about the winter after seeing so much November warmth like we saw in the Niña background years like 2011 and 2001. 

Then the Euro started forecasting a great looking December pattern as we got closer to the start of December. This was pretty much the opposite of the seasonal model issued back on November 5th. So the early MJO indicator beat the Euro seasonal forecast. but that was a much stronger La Niña than this year as per the RONI and ONI metrics. But the -PDO wasn’t as strong as we are seeing now. So perhaps the strong La Niña influence is being realized more in the -PDO index this time than at any other time in the past.

The October Euro forecast for December doesn’t look so great. It’s got a coast to coast warm ridge across the U.S. We’ll wait to see what it comes up with on November 5th. If it continues along the same lines as October 5th, then we’ll need as big a miss as it had back in 2020 for the early MJO indicator to keep working as it has each La Niña year since 10-11.

Current Euro 500 mb forecast for December

 

2020 forecast big miss to the delight of the winter fans around NYC

Forecast 

 

Verification

 

Thanks for the clarification. I expect RONI to peak in moderate territory...tough call, agreed. I would be fine with a 2021-2022 type of result or even 2022-2023 with a bit less amplification out west.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, the biggest anomalies are over the Midwest, then it neutralizes further east. Stronger STJ gives true El Nino over La Nina an edge for east coast snow lovers. I personally like weeks in the 20's with 2-6" snow events. That's what you'll get possibly in a La Nina if the NAO cooperates. 

Yea, I'll take the currier and ives xmas week or on the heels of a big dog, but otherwise my eyes would glaze over.

[40/70 Benchmark]

At least its not clearly a lost cause, which is all we can ask for these days.

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At least its not clearly a lost cause, which is all we can ask for these days.

 Is it ever clearly a lost cause as of late Oct? I can’t remember a single late Oct when the winter was already determined to be a lost cause at this BB and any others. I don’t mean by any particular individual but rather based on the general consensus/discussion.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Is it ever clearly a lost cause as of late Oct? 

In retrospect or when looking ahead? Lol

[GaWx]

39 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

In retrospect or when looking ahead? Lol

Looking ahead of course. 
 
I challenge anyone with the time to go back to similar forecasting threads as of mid to late October and see. If anyone were to find something to the contrary, I’ll be happy to note that year as an exception. Maybe they’ll be found. But until that is done, I’m going to remain skeptical. Again, I’m not talking about a particular person but rather the general discussion/consensus. No point in going through 2023-4 as that clearly had tons of optimism to not at all be a lost cause for the bulk of the E US mild/low in wintry including by me. Even super-strong El Niño winters are usually assumed to have good potential for at least normal temps in the SE as well as a shot at a big winter storm.

 When I say “lost cause”, I mean both well above normal temps and well BN wintry precip in most of the E US including SE US/E Midwest. I think that will be hard to find as of this early. How can it ever already be a lost cause with the uncertainties that pretty much always exist?

[BuffaloWeather]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It sure has…over 250 and climbing. There’s a chance we go over 300

 

 

Do sunspots have any correlation to weather? The last solar maximum was 2014, our best winter in decades. The early 2000s was also an amazing stretch of winters

 

[snowman19]

48 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Do sunspots have any correlation to weather? The last solar maximum was 2014, our best winter in decades. The early 2000s was also an amazing stretch of winters

 

I’ll leave that one to @GaWx  He’s done a bunch of research into it

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Is it ever clearly a lost cause as of late Oct? I can’t remember a single late Oct when the winter was already determined to be a lost cause at this BB and any others. I don’t mean by any particular individual but rather based on the general consensus/discussion.

You are taking what I said too literally, but some years were close...especially south of New England. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Do sunspots have any correlation to weather? The last solar maximum was 2014, our best winter in decades. The early 2000s was also an amazing stretch of winters

 

Its makes big polar blocking less likely.

[GaWx]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are taking what I said too literally, but some years were close...especially south of New England. 

 Fair enough. Thanks, Ray.

 But I’ll ask you and the readers in general: Can anyone point to a general E US winter discussion thread that as of late Oct was heavily dominated by pessimism for most of the E US? I’m sincerely wondering about this. I feel that some level of optimism or at least lack of pessimism is very normal at wx enthusiast BBs this far ahead of the start of winter even when models don’t look good. Maybe there is an exception or two. Please point them out if anyone knows.

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems a bit inconsistent to post about how strong the cold ENSO signal is in the north Pacific, then then focus on the ONI and insist that its weak. If we saw these competing MC forces result in the very mild "El Nina" winter for the NE last year, then why wouldn't this La Nina act stronger??

I think much of the NE would also take a 2021-2022 outcome at this point. I do agree skepticism is warranted regarding December. I don't even recall December 2020 being that great where I am. December 2019 had a great event....

 

While the mother of all grinches melted it with surgical precision in time for Christmas morning, that was a bigger snow event region wide on 12/17  than we'd seen in quite some time in December.  I think that's the one that dropped 12-16 widespread in SNE with up to 3 feet in parts of NH into the southern tier of NY state (BGM).  What was your total for that event?  I know 2019 gave you a 20 spot roughly in the first few days of the month but my recollection is not much after the first week.  So from a snow perspective, 12/20 was better than most Decembers but the holiday melt down put a bitter taste in many mouths.  And the 12-16 in SNE was the only significant event of the month.  Nevertheless, temperature departure was a modest +1.3 at BOS.  Despite the negatives, I'd take that this year.  

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I’ll leave that one to @GaWx  He’s done a bunch of research into it

What Ray said/implied about the tendency for a lack of dominant polar blocking in winter when SSN is high (especially -NAO blocking since the 1980s per my research).

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Looking ahead of course. 
 
I challenge anyone with the time to go back to similar forecasting threads as of mid to late October and see. If anyone were to find something to the contrary, I’ll be happy to note that year as an exception. Maybe they’ll be found. But until that is done, I’m going to remain skeptical. Again, I’m not talking about a particular person but rather the general discussion/consensus. No point in going through 2023-4 as that clearly had tons of optimism to not at all be a lost cause for the bulk of the E US mild/low in wintry including by me. Even super-strong El Niño winters are usually assumed to have good potential for at least normal temps in the SE as well as a shot at a big winter storm.

 When I say “lost cause”, I mean both well above normal temps and well BN wintry precip in most of the E US including SE US/E Midwest. I think that will be hard to find as of this early. How can it ever already be a lost cause with the uncertainties that pretty much always exist?

I know. I was being a desperate weenie.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

While the mother of all grinches melted it with surgical precision in time for Christmas morning, that was a bigger snow event region wide on 12/17  than we'd seen in quite some time in December.  I think that's the one that dropped 12-16 widespread in SNE with up to 3 feet in parts of NH into the southern tier of NY state (BGM).  What was your total for that event?  I know 2019 gave you a 20 spot roughly in the first few days of the month but my recollection is not much after the first week.  So from a snow perspective, 12/20 was better than most Decembers but the holiday melt down put a bitter taste in many mouths.  And the 12-16 in SNE was the only significant event of the month.  Nevertheless, temperature departure was a modest +1.3 at BOS.  Despite the negatives, I'd take that this year.  

I think I had about 1' in that. Yea, I guess that month was okay...just didn't stand out in my recollection. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Fair enough. Thanks, Ray.

 But I’ll ask you and the readers in general: Can anyone point to a general E US winter discussion thread that as of late Oct was heavily dominated by pessimism for most of the E US? I’m sincerely wondering about this. I feel that some level of optimism or at least lack of pessimism is very normal at wx enthusiast BBs this far ahead of the start of winter even when models don’t look good. Maybe there is an exception or two. Please point them out if anyone knows.

I guess I should have said "At least we can still see a pathway to a decent winter at this juncture"...that is really what I meant.

[George001]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I had about 1' in that. Yea, I guess that month was okay...just didn't stand out in my recollection. 

I remember that storm, it had DC to NYC getting buried and my area being on the northern fringe about 4 days out, and then the models shifted hundreds of miles north in the short range. I ended up with around 15, some areas in NNE that were expected to get 2-4 inches got 40 inches. That was a rollercoaster to track 

[mitchnick]

In case anyone cares, I  think I've found the reason for the differences between the Cfs2 site and the Cfs2 shown on TT. Cfs2 site is an average of runs for the last 9 days and TT is an average of the last 12 runs, or 3 days.

Since today's TT Cfs2 maps are much warmer than what's reflected on the Cfs2 site as of today, I would expect the Cfs2 site to show some noticeable warming over the next week unless TT maps reverse their recent warming. I guess we'll see if I'm right. 

Cfs2 site if you don'thave it handy:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

TT Cfs2:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024102706&fh=1

[SethToast]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

In case anyone cares, I  think I've found the reason for the differences between the Cfs2 site and the Cfs2 shown on TT. Cfs2 site is an average of runs for the last 9 days and TT is an average of the last 12 runs, or 3 days.

Since today's TT Cfs2 maps are much warmer than what's reflected on the Cfs2 site as of today, I would expect the Cfs2 site to show some noticeable warming over the next week unless TT maps reverse their recent warming. I guess we'll see if I'm right. 

Cfs2 site if you don'thave it handy:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

TT Cfs2:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024102706&fh=1

Is there a way to see individual runs? I'm curious as to if the results on the TT site is just because of noise or if there's been a consistent increase.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

In case anyone cares, I  think I've found the reason for the differences between the Cfs2 site and the Cfs2 shown on TT. Cfs2 site is an average of runs for the last 9 days and TT is an average of the last 12 runs, or 3 days.

Since today's TT Cfs2 maps are much warmer than what's reflected on the Cfs2 site as of today, I would expect the Cfs2 site to show some noticeable warming over the next week unless TT maps reverse their recent warming. I guess we'll see if I'm right. 

Cfs2 site if you don'thave it handy:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

TT Cfs2:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024102706&fh=1

Its dumb to run seasonal guidance that frequently.

[mitchnick]

10 hours ago, SethToast said:

Is there a way to see individual runs? I'm curious as to if the results on the TT site is just because of noise or if there's been a consistent increase.

I think WeatherBell offers daily runs, but that may be on the Control run. Not sure as I haven't had a WB account in years. 

[mitchnick]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its dumb to run seasonal guidance that frequently.

Only if it keeps getting warmer! 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Is it ever clearly a lost cause as of late Oct? I can’t remember a single late Oct when the winter was already determined to be a lost cause at this BB and any others. I don’t mean by any particular individual but rather based on the general consensus/discussion.

I can think of only one: 2001-02. That winter was cooked even before it began.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I can think of only one: 2001-02. That winter was cooked even before it began.

JB kept advertising a big cold flip like all season long.

[bluewave]

While the Euro had the general ridge and trough locations correct for October, the pattern verified much more amplified than forecast.

 

http://seasonal.meteo.fr/content/PS-previ-cartes?TSPD_101_R0=0804515747ab2000263c57679892e0481ee247a166d03c175ce873dc1d66636a0d5c36e7e8a9cf5f08c0aa925214300096df27d4518308136ac5ee301211eb4b4b0904e4c8bf3eb9f6b53626dc172c2d2096614d7cdda80bf8d8617544ad2c09

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

JB kept advertising a blig cold flip like all season.

Probably his worst bust ever. And he refused to give it up. Months and months of him insisting that the east was about to plunge into an arctic tundra. “Vodka cold is coming!” If there ever was a winter that was toast in November that was the one. November was an epic dry torch, that set the tone for the next 4 months and it was game over. Right through the end of March

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I can think of only one: 2001-02. That winter was cooked even before it began.

 Thank you. But I don’t recall folks thinking that winter was cooked BEFORE it started. To the contrary there was plenty of optimism, partially fueled by the then very popular and well followed JB as mentioned by Ray and snowman. This was before he had had a chance to establish a long time reputation of a cold bias in winter in the E US.

 In addition, throughout that winter the GFS was repeatedly forecasting extreme cold, which fueled optimism into the winter. It had a severe cold bias then. I posted a lot about this bias on ne.weather (A Usenet newsgroup…anyone remember those BBs? Among others, Jerry (who later became “weathafella” on Wright Wx BB) was a regular poster there) and subsequently at the newly discovered aforementioned Wright Wx BB because many didn’t realize that reality. This very strong cold biased GFS was repeatedly shown by JB, which was a major reason he kept talking about “vodka” cold. All of that kept those two boards very hyped up into Jan. It wasn’t until at least late Jan and especially Feb that many were finally giving up.

 By the way, KATL had the most snow that winter since 1991-2 despite being AN by 2.5F. Their 4.6” was over twice the 2” normal.
 

Edit:

@weathafellaplease correct me if I’m getting you and another Jerry mixed up as being a regular poster on the ne.weather Usenet Newsgroup BB in the late 90s to early 2000s. Wasn’t that you?