GaWx Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 23 hours ago, GaWx said: Today’s AO: +3.4 A new record obliterating high AO peak for Oct is still on track over the next two days with high +4s to near +5 still progged by GEFS. Current record +3.754 set 10/24/2008 (Oct records have been late in the month more often than early, which is intuitive to me). This new record will also be higher than the Nov record of +4.544 (11/2/1978). Followup: Today’s AO is as has been well forecasted by GEFS easily a new record high for Oct back to 1950 at +4.578. The old record was 3.754 set 10/24/2008. The GEFS is still suggesting it could peak a little higher tomorrow before starting a plunge. There’s little correlation to the subsequent mean DJF AO. Winters following Octobers with very high AO spikes have varied from strong + to neutral to solid - with avg AO of only +0.1 for all of the subsequent winters combined. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.gefs.z1000.120days.csv 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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