2024-2025 La Nina

[Terpeast]

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I believe it was @brooklynwx99 that posted WB is the Control run of the Cfs2. I believe what you posted is the Control run because it has the "(C)" after the words "CFS Monthly" top, left.

I could be wrong, of course. Lol

Even when looking at the control run, it still doesn't look right. I think it's something that's gone a bit haywire. As far as whether or not it's intentional, I'm not going there. I'll just use other maps.

[MJO812]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1848506703542948155?t=yKnUAfpu7hvNuFwibnBbjA&s=19

[snowman19]

Westerly anomalies behind a fast moving MJO wave is not going to result in a full scale shift of the Indo-Pacific warm pool. You would need STRONG, sustained, honest to goodness WWBs (i.e. El Niño) to do that. We are obviously not getting an El Niño this winter or even a warm-La Nada. All that’s going to happen (and is being shown) is transient, temporary westerly anomalies behind MJO wave convection, not true WWBs. This is not even going to be close to a true trade wind reversal/WWB event, like not even in the ballpark. Webb clearly eludes to this if you read the entirety of his tweet. Once the MJO goes back to the eastern IO and Maritime Continent, phases 4-6, which is what the models are showing, EWBs and cooling is going to start anew. The MEI, RONI, PDO, IOD, PMM and SOI are all deep into La Niña mode. All one has to do is look at the global long wave circulation and OLR over the last several months till now to see that the atmosphere is very clearly into a La Niña state. And the subsurface under region 3.4 is still cold

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Westerly anomalies behind a fast moving MJO wave is not going to result in a full scale shift of the Indo-Pacific warm pool. You would STRONG, sustained, honest to goodness WWBs (i.e. El Niño) to do that. We are obviously not getting an El Niño this winter or even a warm-La Nada. All that’s going to happen (and is being shown) is transient, temporary westerly anomalies behind MJO wave convection, not true WWBs. This is not even going to be close to a true trade wind reversal/WWB event, like not even in the ballpark. Webb clearly eludes to this if you read the entirety of his tweet. Once the MJO goes back to the eastern IO and Maritime Continent, phases 4-6, which is what the models are showing, EWBs and cooling is going to start anew. The MEI, RONI, PDO, IOD, PMM and SOI are all deep into La Niña mode. All one has to do is look at the global long wave circulation and OLR over the last several months till now to see that the atmosphere is very clearly into a La Niña state. And the subsurface under region 3.4 is still cold

La Nina should be peaking on the weeklies here within the next few weeks, regardless...probably at about 1.1 or 1.2. 

I think bursts like this could potentially start a longer term shift, which is long overdue, however, it won't matter for this season. I agree with you there.

[bluewave]

The big modeling story this month is how much stronger the +EPO was than originally forecast by the Euro back in September. We may need to monitor this for the winter forecast since it could have a warmer influence than the Euro winter forecast is indicating. This is not something winter fans would like to see since we really haven’t had a +EPO dominant La Niña since 11-12, 99-00, and 98-99.

Euro forecast for October

 

Much stronger +EPO than forecast 

 

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The big modeling story this month is how much stronger the +EPO was than originally forecast by the Euro back in September. We may need to monitor this for the winter forecast since it could have a warmer influence than the Euro winter forecast is indicating. This is not something winter fans would like to see since we really haven’t had a +EPO dominant La Niña since 11-12, 99-00, and 98-99.

Euro forecast for October

 

Much stronger +EPO than forecast 

 

The Euro suite has been underestimating +EPO’s and showing huge -EPO ridges over AK that never actually happen for several years now. The beat goes on

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Euro suite has been underestimating +EPO’s and showing huge -EPO ridges over AK that never actually happen for several years now. The beat goes on

When Alaska’s colder than average, the East roasts. That’s a pretty good rule to follow. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The big modeling story this month is how much stronger the +EPO was than originally forecast by the Euro back in September. We may need to monitor this for the winter forecast since it could have a warmer influence than the Euro winter forecast is indicating. This is not something winter fans would like to see since we really haven’t had a +EPO dominant La Niña since 11-12, 99-00, and 98-99.

Euro forecast for October

 

Much stronger +EPO than forecast 

 

1999-2000 is one of the better analogs. I think this pattern would have been warmer relative to normal for the northeast during the winter due to wavelengths.
 

Thankfully, October doesn't have much of a coorelation to winter.

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The big modeling story this month is how much stronger the +EPO was than originally forecast by the Euro back in September. We may need to monitor this for the winter forecast since it could have a warmer influence than the Euro winter forecast is indicating. This is not something winter fans would like to see since we really haven’t had a +EPO dominant La Niña since 11-12, 99-00, and 98-99.

Euro forecast for October

 

Much stronger +EPO than forecast 

 

However, Sep-Nov of 2021 had a solid +EPO similar to Sep-Oct of 2024 and the winter of 21-2 ended up with a neutral EPO fwiw.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The big modeling story this month is how much stronger the +EPO was than originally forecast by the Euro back in September. We may need to monitor this for the winter forecast since it could have a warmer influence than the Euro winter forecast is indicating. This is not something winter fans would like to see since we really haven’t had a +EPO dominant La Niña since 11-12, 99-00, and 98-99.

Euro forecast for October

 

Much stronger +EPO than forecast 

 

What about 2020-1? It was an +EPO dominant La Niña: it had 47 +EPO, 32 neutral EPO, and only 11 -EPO days. DJF had an avg daily EPO way up at +60, a solid +EPO avg for a 90 day period:

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Edit: Also, what about 2007-8? It was also +EPO dominant. It had this breakdown for # of days: 50 +EPO, 21 neutral, and 20 -EPO. It also averaged ~+60 over the 91 days.

 Edit: I consider a -50 to +50 individual day to be neutral EPO.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1999-2000 is one of the better analogs. I think this pattern would have been warmer relative to normal for the northeast during the winter due to wavelengths.
 

Thankfully, October doens't have much of a coorelation to winter.

1998-99 is a much better analog than 1999-2000. 1998 is a near perfect MEI/RONI match, a strong el nino -> la nina transition, a dry fall for most of the Eastern US (which led to a drought winter), and near identical Atlantic hurricane season activity.

1999-2000, much like 2011-12, was one of the wettest falls on record, which is clearly not what we have here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1998-99 is a much better analog than 1999-2000. 1998 is a near perfect MEI/RONI match, a strong el nino -> la nina transition, a dry fall for most of the Eastern US (which led to a drought winter), and near identical Atlantic hurricane season activity.

1999-2000, much like 2011-12, was one of the wettest falls on record, which is clearly not what we have here.

Yea, we have been though this. You do you...1999 is a much better fit from a polar perspective. Different analogs have different stengths and weaknesses.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The largest weakness I see with certain seasonal forecasters time and time again is this "all or nothing" black vs white thought process. I can't emphsize enough how important nuanced thinking is.

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1999-2000 is one of the better analogs. I think this pattern would have been warmer relative to normal for the northeast during the winter due to wavelengths.
 

Thankfully, October doesn't have much of a coorelation to winter.

Sometimes the location of the NE PAC vortex in a La Niña locks in early like in 16-17. Notice how the trough set up near the PAC NW in October 2016 and didn’t move in the winter means. Way too early to know if the vortex stays closer to Alaska like we saw this October. But even if a fraction more of a vortex verifies this winter near Alaska than the current forecasts have it could present warmer risks to the winter forecast than the models are currently showing. 
 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Sometimes the location of the NE PAC vortex in a La Niña locks in early like in 16-17. Notice how the trough set up near the PAC NW in October 2016 and didn’t move in the winter means. Way too early to know if the vortex stays closer to Alaska like we saw this October. But even if a fraction more of a vortex verifies this winter near Alaska than the current forecasts have it could present warmer risks to the winter forecast than the models are currently showing. 
 

 

 

Sure, and sometimes it doesn't, which is probably why October isn't highly correlated to winter. BTW, I would gladly take a repeat of 2016, anyway....esstentially normal snowfall around here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

No question its going to be warm....the issue is whether or not it will be prohibitively warm again.

[jm1220]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure, and sometimes it doesn't, which is probably why October isn't highly correlated to winter. BTW, I would gladly take a repeat of 2016, anyway....esstentially normal snowfall around here.

16-17 wasn’t bad here, was best NYC on NE which is typical for these fast flow Nina years. Late Jan and Feb had same good snow events. The 3-14-17 event going 75 miles further SE would’ve made it a great season vs not bad. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

16-17 wasn’t bad here, was best NYC on NE which is typical for these fast flow Nina years. Late Jan and Feb had same good snow events. 

Yea, I think a season like that is the ceiling....decent snowfall with low retention.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I get the feeling November-February 2024-25 is going to mimic October-January 2021-22. November and January are going to be absolute torch months, while December and February are going to be near (and possibly even slightly cooler than) normal. That +10 January is going to skew the temperature departure of this winter into a +3 or +4, when the rest of the winter was otherwise near normal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I get the feeling November-February 2024-25 is going to mimic October-January 2021-22. November and January are going to be absolute torch months, while December and February are going to be near (and possibly even slightly cooler than) normal. That +10 January is going to skew the temperature departure of this winter into a +3 or +4, when the rest of the winter was otherwise near normal.

I agree, just still grappling with the timing a bit....

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I get the feeling November-February 2024-25 is going to mimic October-January 2021-22. November and January are going to be absolute torch months, while December and February are going to be near (and possibly even slightly cooler than) normal. That +10 January is going to skew the temperature departure of this winter into a +3 or +4, when the rest of the winter was otherwise near normal.

Reasonable, my timing is a bit different from yours, but overall agreed

[Eduardo]

13 hours ago, MJO812 said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1848506703542948155?t=yKnUAfpu7hvNuFwibnBbjA&s=19

I mean, even if that were to happen (and that’s a big if), wouldn’t it be too little too late?

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/21/2024 at 9:39 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

What makes this winter tough to predict is the disjointedness of the ONI, RONI, and MEI. We've never had a scenario before where the ONI is somewhere near ENSO neutral, the MEI is a strong la nina, and the RONI is somewhere in the middle. The best we can do is probably find years where 2 of the 3 measures are somewhat similar:

1998-99: MEI & RONI

2007-08: MEI & RONI

2016-17: ONI & RONI 

2020-21: MEI & RONI

What really complicates matters is undersanding WHY the metrics are disjointed and how that will manifest itself into the hemispheric manifold on a seasonal scale. The latter is where I failed last season. The lower =colder rationalization is a reductive and archic way of conceptualizing it (not directed at you...theoretical).

[snowman19]

28 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

16-17 wasn’t bad here, was best NYC on NE which is typical for these fast flow Nina years. Late Jan and Feb had same good snow events. The 3-14-17 event going 75 miles further SE would’ve made it a great season vs not bad. 

IMO 16-17 was helped by a neutral/slight positive PDO

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO 16-17 was helped by a neutral/slight positive PDO

Yep. Great point...an identical regime this season would evolve even more unfavorably for NE winter enthusiasts if the polar domain also behvaves similarly. However, it was very hostile that year and I suspect we will have a bit more of a blocking signature in the mean this year.

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

Today’s AO: +3.4

A new record obliterating high AO peak for Oct is still on track over the next two days with high +4s to near +5 still progged by GEFS. Current record +3.754 set 10/24/2008 (Oct records have been late in the month more often than early, which is intuitive to me). This new record will also be higher than the Nov record of +4.544 (11/2/1978).

Followup: Today’s AO is as has been well forecasted by GEFS easily a new record high for Oct back to 1950 at +4.578. The old record was 3.754 set 10/24/2008. The GEFS is still suggesting it could peak a little higher tomorrow before starting a plunge. There’s little correlation to the subsequent mean DJF AO. Winters following Octobers with very high AO spikes have varied from strong + to neutral to solid - with avg AO of only +0.1 for all of the subsequent winters combined.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.gefs.z1000.120days.csv

[GaWx]

On 10/22/2024 at 10:18 AM, GaWx said:

Followup: Today’s AO is as has been well forecasted by GEFS easily a new record high for Oct back to 1950 at +4.578. The old record was 3.754 set 10/24/2008. The GEFS is still suggesting it could peak a little higher tomorrow before starting a plunge. There’s little correlation to the subsequent mean DJF AO. Winters following Octobers with very high AO spikes have varied from strong + to neutral to solid - with avg AO of only +0.1 for all of the subsequent winters combined.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.gefs.z1000.120days.csv

 Today as expected was the 2nd day in a row setting a new record high Oct. AO. It was 4.873. The old Oct record high was set yesterday at 4.578. Before 2024, the Oct. record was only 3.754.
 The 4.873 also sets a new record high for met. autumn. The old record was 4.578 set yesterday.

[snowman19]

@Bluewave So shocking, MJO 4-6 dominating. Here we go again….
 

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Broke the record for +AO today and yesterday, as Gawx has been pointing out. Broke it by 120%

Here is how +AO in October rolls forward to the Winter

December

January

Been getting a lot of stuff for a +AO/+NAO January

February

Once again we have a major +NAO/AO event happening a short time after a flux in solar activity. This wasn't really modeled to be so strong in the medium-range/long range.  

[George001]

The CFS shifted back to cold for Jan (still warm in Dec and Feb). Lots of flip flopping… I’m taking anything these models say right now with a grain of salt, just too early.