2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I just want one factor to be in our favor (where you live is a different story) for something outside of the bottom gutter of a winter. 

Even here...I haven't sniffed normal snowfall since 2017-2018.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Happy November.. 0z GFS has a 593dm ridge over a large part of the Mid Atlantic for Nov 1. Anything close to that in verification should be 80s..  +NAO's are really correlating with some warm temperature spikes in the region so far this year.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Since 1993, strong H5 around the Mid Atlantic Oct 31-Nov 1, rolled forward to the following Winter (Nov-Feb) (11 analogs/32)

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, if the newer runs are correct and the MJO spends the rest of this month at an amplitude of 2 or higher, then this autumn will be grouped with the colder la nina winters by this measure (other measures may diverge though)

I will update it when the verifying numbers come in but the colder groupings were near or stronger than +3. That being said, it’s just one potential indicator and no guarantee it will workout again. Just something to keep in mind.

 

October 2022…Phase 6 peak +2.177…..ONI….-1.0

October 2021….Phase 5 peak +2.087….ONI….-1.0

October 2020…Phase 5 peak +2.818….ONI…..-1.3

 

October 2017….Phase 6 peak +3.353….ONI….-1.0

October 2016….Phase 5 peak +1.800….ONI….-0.7

 

October 2011….Phase 6 peak +1.674….ONI….-1.1

October 2010….Phase 5 peak +2.880…ONI…..-1.6 

 

Latest daily value

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring

5   2.3287644 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Since 1993, strong H5 around the Mid Atlantic Oct 31-Nov 1, rolled forward to the following Winter (Nov-Feb) (11 analogs/32)

The new extended ensembles are drier than a frigging bone for early-mid November in the east

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Since 1993, strong H5 around the Mid Atlantic Oct 31-Nov 1, rolled forward to the following Winter (Nov-Feb) (11 analogs/32)

Those are all decent analogs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I will update it when the verifying numbers come in but the colder groupings were near or stronger than +3. That being said, it’s just one potential indicator and no guarantee it will workout again. Just something to keep in mind.

 

October 2022…Phase 6 peak +2.177…..ONI….-1.0

October 2021….Phase 5 peak +2.087….ONI….-1.0

October 2020…Phase 5 peak +2.818….ONI…..-1.3

 

October 2017….Phase 6 peak +3.353….ONI….-1.0

October 2016….Phase 5 peak +1.800….ONI….-0.7

 

October 2011….Phase 6 peak +1.674….ONI….-1.1

October 2010….Phase 5 peak +2.880…ONI…..-1.6 

 

Latest daily value

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring

5   2.3287644 

Comparable 2021, which also had a very good stretch in January 2022.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I will update it when the verifying numbers come in but the colder groupings were near or stronger than +3. That being said, it’s just one potential indicator and no guarantee it will workout again. Just something to keep in mind.

 

October 2022…Phase 6 peak +2.177…..ONI….-1.0

October 2021….Phase 5 peak +2.087….ONI….-1.0

October 2020…Phase 5 peak +2.818….ONI…..-1.3

 

October 2017….Phase 6 peak +3.353….ONI….-1.0

October 2016….Phase 5 peak +1.800….ONI….-0.7

 

October 2011….Phase 6 peak +1.674….ONI….-1.1

October 2010….Phase 5 peak +2.880…ONI…..-1.6 

 

Latest daily value

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring

5   2.3287644 

Yeah, and we’re not even sure if this nina will get that strong by ONI either. Over in the MA forum, we were discussing how we should actually root for a stronger late peaking nina over a neutral because we’ve had better winters during the former. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't expect something like January 2011 or March 2018, but I continue to consider Jan-Feb 2021 and Jan 2022 as most definitely within the realm of possibility.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I will update it when the verifying numbers come in but the colder groupings were near or stronger than +3. That being said, it’s just one potential indicator and no guarantee it will workout again. Just something to keep in mind.

 

October 2022…Phase 6 peak +2.177…..ONI….-1.0

October 2021….Phase 5 peak +2.087….ONI….-1.0

October 2020…Phase 5 peak +2.818….ONI…..-1.3

 

October 2017….Phase 6 peak +3.353….ONI….-1.0

October 2016….Phase 5 peak +1.800….ONI….-0.7

 

October 2011….Phase 6 peak +1.674….ONI….-1.1

October 2010….Phase 5 peak +2.880…ONI…..-1.6 

 

Latest daily value

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring

5   2.3287644 

Chris and others,

 What do you think about comparing RONI instead of ONI?

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Happy November.. 0z GFS has a 593dm ridge over a large part of the Mid Atlantic for Nov 1. Anything close to that in verification should be 80s..  +NAO's are really correlating with some warm temperature spikes in the region so far this year.  

that may be so ...without establishing causality.  in other words, it may be coincidence ...  i mean, it's not hurting the warm cause either lol

but the warm pattern being observed in all guidance and derivatives therefrom... is anchored by the entire hemisphere man.  the wpo and the entire downstream pacific arc is in a double-a phase, while heights are also rising n ne of hawaii - that's a constructive interference.  one that sends a whopper signal for -pnap across mid latitude continent downstream of that sort of circulation mode/circumstance.  

...which, academically, is a warm expectation that correlates well to sending d.c. to boston temperatures soaring no matter what time of year it is ( relative to climo that is...)

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Since 1993, strong H5 around the Mid Atlantic Oct 31-Nov 1, rolled forward to the following Winter (Nov-Feb) (11 analogs/32)

Meaning 21 of 32 times it did not?

This coming Halloween looks way different than last year which was windy, cold, and snowy. We are actually overdue for a mild Halloween.

[Terpeast]

Maybe overly simplistic, but we’re now going through the warm MJO phases, which means a warming/warmer signal through at least mid-november. 

If the full MJO cycle is 30-60 days, say the average is 45 days. Then we should go through the cold phases from mid-november through early december. Then warm phases again from early dec through new years. That puts us back in cold phases from new years through the third week of January. That sounds similar to Jan 2022.

Just thinking of it in terms of a clock, except counter-clockwise. But that’s assuming the MJO won’t just die into COD at 7 and then resurface at 4, which would be a death sentence to snowfall prospects south of i-90.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Chris and others,

 What do you think about comparing RONI instead of ONI?

What makes this winter tough to predict is the disjointedness of the ONI, RONI, and MEI. We've never had a scenario before where the ONI is somewhere near ENSO neutral, the MEI is a strong la nina, and the RONI is somewhere in the middle. The best we can do is probably find years where 2 of the 3 measures are somewhat similar:

1998-99: MEI & RONI

2007-08: MEI & RONI

2016-17: ONI & RONI 

2020-21: MEI & RONI

[donsutherland1]

The recent runs of the CFSv2 have grown warmer for December 2024-February 2025. It is uncertain whether this is a temporary development or the evolution of what will become a warmer winter forecast.

From 10/1-10:

From 10/11-20:

[Typhoon Tip]

looks like 2006 huh

[mitchnick]

27 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Maybe overly simplistic, but we’re now going through the warm MJO phases, which means a warming/warmer signal through at least mid-november. 

If the full MJO cycle is 30-60 days, say the average is 45 days. Then we should go through the cold phases from mid-november through early december. Then warm phases again from early dec through new years. That puts us back in cold phases from new years through the third week of January. That sounds similar to Jan 2022.

Just thinking of it in terms of a clock, except counter-clockwise. But that’s assuming the MJO won’t just die into COD at 7 and then resurface at 4, which would be a death sentence to snowfall prospects south of i-90.

I posted weeks ago I thought the best chances for the Mid Atlantic for anything decent was between 1/15-2/25. Still believe that's the case, but should have added nuisance potential thru the winter (1" or less.) I doubt a big year, but 20/21 sucked down there while I  had over 30". I don't believe I'll ever see that this year short of a fluke event.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I posted weeks ago I thought the best chances for the Mid Atlantic for anything decent was between 1/15-2/25. Still believe that's the case, but should have added nuisance potential thru the winter (1" or less.) I doubt a big year, but 20/21 sucked down there while I  had over 30". I don't believe I'll ever see that this year short of a fluke event.

I’m hoping for something half decent in December, I can’t think of a Nina that was any way decent for NYC without a Dec snow event. I count 1/4/18 as within that early winter window that returned with a vengeance in March. NYC had the Dec 2020 snow event then the great stretch in early Feb. 

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

What makes this winter tough to predict is the disjointedness of the ONI, RONI, and MEI. We've never had a scenario before where the ONI is somewhere near ENSO neutral, the MEI is a strong la nina, and the RONI is somewhere in the middle. The best we can do is probably find years where 2 of the 3 measures are somewhat similar:

1998-99: MEI & RONI

2007-08: MEI & RONI

2016-17: ONI & RONI 

2020-21: MEI & RONI

@bluewave
Added mins for RONI, which I feel is a superior metric to ONI, and MEI:

October 2022…Phase 6 peak +2.177....ONI….-1.0..RONI….-1.1….MEI….-1.7

October 2021….Phase 5 peak +2.087….ONI….-1.0….RONI….-1.2….MEI….-1.5

October 2020…Phase 5 peak +2.818….ONI…..-1.3….RONI….-1.5….MEI….-1.2

 

October 2017….Phase 6 peak +3.353….ONI….-1.0….RONI….-1.3….MEI….-0.8

October 2016….Phase 5 peak +1.800….ONI….-0.7….RONI….-1.1….MEI….-0.5

 

October 2011….Phase 6 peak +1.674….ONI….-1.1….RONI….-1.1….MEI….-1.3

October 2010….Phase 5 peak +2.880…ONI…..-1.6….RONI….-1.7….MEI….-2.4

 

MEI: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/#datacomp

RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

[GaWx]

Today’s AO: +3.4

A new record obliterating high AO peak for Oct is still on track over the next two days with high +4s to near +5 still progged by GEFS. Current record +3.754 set 10/24/2008 (Oct records have been late in the month more often than early, which is intuitive to me). This new record will also be higher than the Nov record of +4.544 (11/2/1978).

[Terpeast]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I posted weeks ago I thought the best chances for the Mid Atlantic for anything decent was between 1/15-2/25. Still believe that's the case, but should have added nuisance potential thru the winter (1" or less.) I doubt a big year, but 20/21 sucked down there while I  had over 30". I don't believe I'll ever see that this year short of a fluke event.

I think our chances will come in smaller windows. I'd break that big window up into smaller ones, like a week in Dec, two weeks in early Jan, a week or so in Feb, etc. I don't expect multiple chances in a large window, especially now that models are starting to trend warmer in both medium-term and seasonal forecasts.

But all we really need is one good hit within one of those windows to make it a winter (or storm) to remember.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The recent runs of the CFSv2 have grown warmer for December 2024-February 2025. It is uncertain whether this is a temporary development or the evolution of what will become a warmer winter forecast.

From 10/1-10:

From 10/11-20:

it'd be interesting to learn about the machinery behind a 'climate forecast system' model.   i mean that sort of variance from one release to the next seems like something major needs to happen if overcoming the weight of climate that far.    i'm assuming it's not JUST climate of course.. perhaps a mash of climate and numerical model output  but -

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I think our chances will come in smaller windows. I'd break that big window up into smaller ones, like a week in Dec, two weeks in early Jan, a week or so in Feb, etc. I don't expect multiple chances in a large window, especially now that models are starting to trend warmer in both medium-term and seasonal forecasts.

But all we really need is one good hit within one of those windows to make it a winter (or storm) to remember.

The Weather Channel has been good at predicting winter torch months well in advance, at least in recent years. They had months like December 2021 and December 2023 torching well in advance. FWIW, they have January torching. I think there will a window for a snow in early-to-mid December, but there will be a great snow lull/torch in late December through January. The bulk of the cold and snow will be in February.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The recent runs of the CFSv2 have grown warmer for December 2024-February 2025. It is uncertain whether this is a temporary development or the evolution of what will become a warmer winter forecast.

From 10/1-10:

From 10/11-20:

Defintely a warmer winter forecast. I don't think anyone was buying a normal winter tempwise down into the mid atl. I am comforted by the fact that it still has the wamrst anomalies in the SW...so qualitatively speaking its pretty similar. It was just too cold.

[donsutherland1]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Defintely a warmer winter forecast. I don't think anyone was buying a normal winter tempwise down into the mid atl. I am comforted by the fact that it still has the wamrst anomalies in the SW...so qualitatively speaking its pretty similar. It was just too cold.

I agree that the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will be warmer than normal. The earlier CFSv2 was among the more aggressive systems when it came to cold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree that the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will be warmer than normal. The earlier CFSv2 was among the more aggressive systems when it came to cold.

I have started doubling up on more recent seasons on this year's seasonal temp anomaly composite forecast just in an effort to account for CC.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The recent runs of the CFSv2 have grown warmer for December 2024-February 2025. It is uncertain whether this is a temporary development or the evolution of what will become a warmer winter forecast.

From 10/11-20:

Don/others,

 Compare this to WxBell’s 10 day avg for DJF (see image below)(apples to apples): WxBell is significantly too cold in the E 2/3 of the US! In the NE for example, WxBell averages ~-1C/-1.8F vs CPC’s ~+0.75C/+1.35F. So, WB is ~3F too cold! Another ex: Atlanta is ~2F too cold on WB. This is further proof that WB CFS maps tend to be significantly too cold in the E US.

 In addition note once again on the WB CFS map that everpresent cold spot in S Lake Michigan and warm spot just 250 miles N in N Lake Michigan/N Michigan:

 

**Edit: Also, WB’s climo base is 1981-2010, which would make their maps even warmer than going against 1991-2020. In other words, if WB were to change the climo to 1991-2020, their maps would be even colder. So, WxBell may actually even be further off vs CPC than what I stated above!

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it'd be interesting to learn about the machinery behind a 'climate forecast system' model.   i mean that sort of variance from one release to the next seems like something major needs to happen if overcoming the weight of climate that far.    i'm assuming it's not JUST climate of course.. perhaps a mash of climate and numerical model output  but -

I don't think that is that big of a difference at all for one 10 day run to the next. It's the same general idea, just less cold. We have seen far worse swings in other forecast models over similar periods of time.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I don't think that is that big of a difference at all for one 10 day run to the next. It's the same general idea, just less cold. We have seen far worse swings in other forecast models over similar periods of time.

Cfs2 is always a moving target. It was actually a touch warmer than Don's map a few days ago when it had the +1C just north of mby instead of just south. Once updated November forecasts come in over the next couple of weeks, it'll be time to shift to the weekly guidance where there's "a little" more accuracy. 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I don't think that is that big of a difference at all for one 10 day run to the next. It's the same general idea, just less cold. We have seen far worse swings in other forecast models over similar periods of time.

it might be "if" the climate integral is large.