40/70 Benchmark Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Since 1993, strong H5 around the Mid Atlantic Oct 31-Nov 1, rolled forward to the following Winter (Nov-Feb) (11 analogs/32) Those are all decent analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 1 hour ago, bluewave said: I will update it when the verifying numbers come in but the colder groupings were near or stronger than +3. That being said, it’s just one potential indicator and no guarantee it will workout again. Just something to keep in mind. October 2022…Phase 6 peak +2.177…..ONI….-1.0 October 2021….Phase 5 peak +2.087….ONI….-1.0 October 2020…Phase 5 peak +2.818….ONI…..-1.3 October 2017….Phase 6 peak +3.353….ONI….-1.0 October 2016….Phase 5 peak +1.800….ONI….-0.7 October 2011….Phase 6 peak +1.674….ONI….-1.1 October 2010….Phase 5 peak +2.880…ONI…..-1.6 Latest daily value http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring 5 2.3287644 Comparable 2021, which also had a very good stretch in January 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 1 hour ago, bluewave said: I will update it when the verifying numbers come in but the colder groupings were near or stronger than +3. That being said, it’s just one potential indicator and no guarantee it will workout again. Just something to keep in mind. October 2022…Phase 6 peak +2.177…..ONI….-1.0 October 2021….Phase 5 peak +2.087….ONI….-1.0 October 2020…Phase 5 peak +2.818….ONI…..-1.3 October 2017….Phase 6 peak +3.353….ONI….-1.0 October 2016….Phase 5 peak +1.800….ONI….-0.7 October 2011….Phase 6 peak +1.674….ONI….-1.1 October 2010….Phase 5 peak +2.880…ONI…..-1.6 Latest daily value http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring 5 2.3287644 Yeah, and we’re not even sure if this nina will get that strong by ONI either. Over in the MA forum, we were discussing how we should actually root for a stronger late peaking nina over a neutral because we’ve had better winters during the former. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 I don't expect something like January 2011 or March 2018, but I continue to consider Jan-Feb 2021 and Jan 2022 as most definitely within the realm of possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 2 hours ago, bluewave said: I will update it when the verifying numbers come in but the colder groupings were near or stronger than +3. That being said, it’s just one potential indicator and no guarantee it will workout again. Just something to keep in mind. October 2022…Phase 6 peak +2.177…..ONI….-1.0 October 2021….Phase 5 peak +2.087….ONI….-1.0 October 2020…Phase 5 peak +2.818….ONI…..-1.3 October 2017….Phase 6 peak +3.353….ONI….-1.0 October 2016….Phase 5 peak +1.800….ONI….-0.7 October 2011….Phase 6 peak +1.674….ONI….-1.1 October 2010….Phase 5 peak +2.880…ONI…..-1.6 Latest daily value http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring 5 2.3287644 Chris and others, What do you think about comparing RONI instead of ONI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Happy November.. 0z GFS has a 593dm ridge over a large part of the Mid Atlantic for Nov 1. Anything close to that in verification should be 80s.. +NAO's are really correlating with some warm temperature spikes in the region so far this year. that may be so ...without establishing causality. in other words, it may be coincidence ... i mean, it's not hurting the warm cause either lol but the warm pattern being observed in all guidance and derivatives therefrom... is anchored by the entire hemisphere man. the wpo and the entire downstream pacific arc is in a double-a phase, while heights are also rising n ne of hawaii - that's a constructive interference. one that sends a whopper signal for -pnap across mid latitude continent downstream of that sort of circulation mode/circumstance. ...which, academically, is a warm expectation that correlates well to sending d.c. to boston temperatures soaring no matter what time of year it is ( relative to climo that is...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Since 1993, strong H5 around the Mid Atlantic Oct 31-Nov 1, rolled forward to the following Winter (Nov-Feb) (11 analogs/32) Meaning 21 of 32 times it did not? This coming Halloween looks way different than last year which was windy, cold, and snowy. We are actually overdue for a mild Halloween. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 Maybe overly simplistic, but we’re now going through the warm MJO phases, which means a warming/warmer signal through at least mid-november. If the full MJO cycle is 30-60 days, say the average is 45 days. Then we should go through the cold phases from mid-november through early december. Then warm phases again from early dec through new years. That puts us back in cold phases from new years through the third week of January. That sounds similar to Jan 2022. Just thinking of it in terms of a clock, except counter-clockwise. But that’s assuming the MJO won’t just die into COD at 7 and then resurface at 4, which would be a death sentence to snowfall prospects south of i-90. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 15 minutes ago, GaWx said: Chris and others, What do you think about comparing RONI instead of ONI? What makes this winter tough to predict is the disjointedness of the ONI, RONI, and MEI. We've never had a scenario before where the ONI is somewhere near ENSO neutral, the MEI is a strong la nina, and the RONI is somewhere in the middle. The best we can do is probably find years where 2 of the 3 measures are somewhat similar: 1998-99: MEI & RONI 2007-08: MEI & RONI 2016-17: ONI & RONI 2020-21: MEI & RONI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 The recent runs of the CFSv2 have grown warmer for December 2024-February 2025. It is uncertain whether this is a temporary development or the evolution of what will become a warmer winter forecast. From 10/1-10: From 10/11-20: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 looks like 2006 huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 27 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Maybe overly simplistic, but we’re now going through the warm MJO phases, which means a warming/warmer signal through at least mid-november. If the full MJO cycle is 30-60 days, say the average is 45 days. Then we should go through the cold phases from mid-november through early december. Then warm phases again from early dec through new years. That puts us back in cold phases from new years through the third week of January. That sounds similar to Jan 2022. Just thinking of it in terms of a clock, except counter-clockwise. But that’s assuming the MJO won’t just die into COD at 7 and then resurface at 4, which would be a death sentence to snowfall prospects south of i-90. I posted weeks ago I thought the best chances for the Mid Atlantic for anything decent was between 1/15-2/25. Still believe that's the case, but should have added nuisance potential thru the winter (1" or less.) I doubt a big year, but 20/21 sucked down there while I had over 30". I don't believe I'll ever see that this year short of a fluke event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I posted weeks ago I thought the best chances for the Mid Atlantic for anything decent was between 1/15-2/25. Still believe that's the case, but should have added nuisance potential thru the winter (1" or less.) I doubt a big year, but 20/21 sucked down there while I had over 30". I don't believe I'll ever see that this year short of a fluke event. I’m hoping for something half decent in December, I can’t think of a Nina that was any way decent for NYC without a Dec snow event. I count 1/4/18 as within that early winter window that returned with a vengeance in March. NYC had the Dec 2020 snow event then the great stretch in early Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 40 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: What makes this winter tough to predict is the disjointedness of the ONI, RONI, and MEI. We've never had a scenario before where the ONI is somewhere near ENSO neutral, the MEI is a strong la nina, and the RONI is somewhere in the middle. The best we can do is probably find years where 2 of the 3 measures are somewhat similar: 1998-99: MEI & RONI 2007-08: MEI & RONI 2016-17: ONI & RONI 2020-21: MEI & RONI @bluewave Added mins for RONI, which I feel is a superior metric to ONI, and MEI: October 2022…Phase 6 peak +2.177....ONI….-1.0..RONI….-1.1….MEI….-1.7 October 2021….Phase 5 peak +2.087….ONI….-1.0….RONI….-1.2….MEI….-1.5 October 2020…Phase 5 peak +2.818….ONI…..-1.3….RONI….-1.5….MEI….-1.2 October 2017….Phase 6 peak +3.353….ONI….-1.0….RONI….-1.3….MEI….-0.8 October 2016….Phase 5 peak +1.800….ONI….-0.7….RONI….-1.1….MEI….-0.5 October 2011….Phase 6 peak +1.674….ONI….-1.1….RONI….-1.1….MEI….-1.3 October 2010….Phase 5 peak +2.880…ONI…..-1.6….RONI….-1.7….MEI….-2.4 MEI: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/#datacomp RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 Today’s AO: +3.4 A new record obliterating high AO peak for Oct is still on track over the next two days with high +4s to near +5 still progged by GEFS. Current record +3.754 set 10/24/2008 (Oct records have been late in the month more often than early, which is intuitive to me). This new record will also be higher than the Nov record of +4.544 (11/2/1978). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 20 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I posted weeks ago I thought the best chances for the Mid Atlantic for anything decent was between 1/15-2/25. Still believe that's the case, but should have added nuisance potential thru the winter (1" or less.) I doubt a big year, but 20/21 sucked down there while I had over 30". I don't believe I'll ever see that this year short of a fluke event. I think our chances will come in smaller windows. I'd break that big window up into smaller ones, like a week in Dec, two weeks in early Jan, a week or so in Feb, etc. I don't expect multiple chances in a large window, especially now that models are starting to trend warmer in both medium-term and seasonal forecasts. But all we really need is one good hit within one of those windows to make it a winter (or storm) to remember. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: The recent runs of the CFSv2 have grown warmer for December 2024-February 2025. It is uncertain whether this is a temporary development or the evolution of what will become a warmer winter forecast. From 10/1-10: From 10/11-20: it'd be interesting to learn about the machinery behind a 'climate forecast system' model. i mean that sort of variance from one release to the next seems like something major needs to happen if overcoming the weight of climate that far. i'm assuming it's not JUST climate of course.. perhaps a mash of climate and numerical model output but - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: I think our chances will come in smaller windows. I'd break that big window up into smaller ones, like a week in Dec, two weeks in early Jan, a week or so in Feb, etc. I don't expect multiple chances in a large window, especially now that models are starting to trend warmer in both medium-term and seasonal forecasts. But all we really need is one good hit within one of those windows to make it a winter (or storm) to remember. The Weather Channel has been good at predicting winter torch months well in advance, at least in recent years. They had months like December 2021 and December 2023 torching well in advance. FWIW, they have January torching. I think there will a window for a snow in early-to-mid December, but there will be a great snow lull/torch in late December through January. The bulk of the cold and snow will be in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The recent runs of the CFSv2 have grown warmer for December 2024-February 2025. It is uncertain whether this is a temporary development or the evolution of what will become a warmer winter forecast. From 10/1-10: From 10/11-20: Defintely a warmer winter forecast. I don't think anyone was buying a normal winter tempwise down into the mid atl. I am comforted by the fact that it still has the wamrst anomalies in the SW...so qualitatively speaking its pretty similar. It was just too cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Defintely a warmer winter forecast. I don't think anyone was buying a normal winter tempwise down into the mid atl. I am comforted by the fact that it still has the wamrst anomalies in the SW...so qualitatively speaking its pretty similar. It was just too cold. I agree that the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will be warmer than normal. The earlier CFSv2 was among the more aggressive systems when it came to cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree that the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will be warmer than normal. The earlier CFSv2 was among the more aggressive systems when it came to cold. I have started doubling up on more recent seasons on this year's seasonal temp anomaly composite forecast just in an effort to account for CC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The recent runs of the CFSv2 have grown warmer for December 2024-February 2025. It is uncertain whether this is a temporary development or the evolution of what will become a warmer winter forecast. From 10/11-20: Don/others, Compare this to WxBell’s 10 day avg for DJF (see image below)(apples to apples): WxBell is significantly too cold in the E 2/3 of the US! In the NE for example, WxBell averages ~-1C/-1.8F vs CPC’s ~+0.75C/+1.35F. So, WB is ~3F too cold! Another ex: Atlanta is ~2F too cold on WB. This is further proof that WB CFS maps tend to be significantly too cold in the E US. In addition note once again on the WB CFS map that everpresent cold spot in S Lake Michigan and warm spot just 250 miles N in N Lake Michigan/N Michigan: **Edit: Also, WB’s climo base is 1981-2010, which would make their maps even warmer than going against 1991-2020. In other words, if WB were to change the climo to 1991-2020, their maps would be even colder. So, WxBell may actually even be further off vs CPC than what I stated above! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: it'd be interesting to learn about the machinery behind a 'climate forecast system' model. i mean that sort of variance from one release to the next seems like something major needs to happen if overcoming the weight of climate that far. i'm assuming it's not JUST climate of course.. perhaps a mash of climate and numerical model output but - I don't think that is that big of a difference at all for one 10 day run to the next. It's the same general idea, just less cold. We have seen far worse swings in other forecast models over similar periods of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I don't think that is that big of a difference at all for one 10 day run to the next. It's the same general idea, just less cold. We have seen far worse swings in other forecast models over similar periods of time. Cfs2 is always a moving target. It was actually a touch warmer than Don's map a few days ago when it had the +1C just north of mby instead of just south. Once updated November forecasts come in over the next couple of weeks, it'll be time to shift to the weekly guidance where there's "a little" more accuracy. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I don't think that is that big of a difference at all for one 10 day run to the next. It's the same general idea, just less cold. We have seen far worse swings in other forecast models over similar periods of time. it might be "if" the climate integral is large. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Don/others, Compare this to WxBell’s 10 day avg for DJF (see image below)(apples to apples): WxBell is significantly too cold in the E 2/3 of the US! In the NE for example, WxBell averages ~-1C/-1.8F vs CPC’s ~+0.75C/+1.35F. So, WB is ~3F too cold! Another ex: Atlanta is ~2F too cold on WB. This is further proof that WB CFS maps tend to be significantly too cold in the E US. In addition note once again on the WB CFS map that everpresent cold spot in S Lake Michigan and warm spot just 250 miles N in N Lake Michigan/N Michigan: **Edit: Also, WB’s climo base is 1981-2010, which would make their maps even warmer than going against 1991-2020. In other words, if WB were to change the climo to 1991-2020, their maps would be even colder. So, WxBell may actually even be further off vs CPC than what I stated above! Conspiracy Theory Larry ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The recent runs of the CFSv2 have grown warmer for December 2024-February 2025. It is uncertain whether this is a temporary development or the evolution of what will become a warmer winter forecast. From 10/1-10: From 10/11-20: Adjusting to the probable likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: Conspiracy Theory Larry ?? I’m currently leaning against it being intentional as my nature is to give the benefit of the doubt initially. It is hard for me to believe they’d do this on purpose when it is so easy for anyone to compare to other sources of CFS output. So, I’m still thinking unintentionally badly flawed company algorithms. But the longer this goes on without fixing it, the more I start to wonder somewhat since colder E US sells in winter. And shouldn’t they have at least noticed that cold spot in S Lake Michigan and warm spot in N Lake Michigan that almost always show up by now? Is it possible they (including JB) still have no idea that their CFS maps differ so much? I say it’s possible because they may never look at other CFS output. But what about those everpresent cold/warm spots? If they really still don’t know now and they later figure it out, would they then be honest and fix the algos or ditch their versions? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 19 minutes ago, GaWx said: I’m currently leaning against it being intentional as my nature is to give the benefit of the doubt initially. It is hard for me to believe they’d do this on purpose when it is so easy for anyone to compare to other sources of CFS output. So, I’m still thinking unintentionally badly flawed company algorithms. But the longer this goes on without fixing it, the more I start to wonder somewhat since colder E US sells in winter. And shouldn’t they have at least noticed that cold spot in S Lake Michigan and warm spot in N Lake Michigan that almost always show up by now? Is it possible they (including JB) still have no idea that their CFS maps differ so much? I say it’s possible because they may never look at other CFS output. But what about those everpresent cold/warm spots? If they really still don’t know now and they later figure it out, would they then be honest and fix the algos or ditch their versions? I believe it was @brooklynwx99 that posted WB is the Control run of the Cfs2. I believe what you posted is the Control run because it has the "(C)" after the words "CFS Monthly" top, left. I could be wrong, of course. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 33 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I believe it was @brooklynwx99 that posted WB is the Control run of the Cfs2. I believe what you posted is the Control run because it has the "(C)" after the words "CFS Monthly" top, left. I could be wrong, of course. Lol 1. Brooklyn was also warning me and others about comparing single runs vs multi runs. The only WB CFS maps that go out through Feb (all of DJF) are control runs. Also, when JB shows winter CFS, they are always control runs. 2. The only multi run CFS maps WB has are control runs. 3. The WB CFS mean of 10 days of runs I showed earlier was a mean of control runs. That’s all they have for DJF. 4. Check this out: mean of 30 days of control runs for DJF: look how cold it is! 30 days! This is absurd! Their CFS mean is about always too cold in the E US along with having the Lake Michigan nonsense. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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