so_whats_happening Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, this is why we are forecast to get such a deep -PNA trough in the West later in the month. It’s one of the few times of the year when the MJO 8 is this warm. Especially combined with La Niña and -PDO. Most MJO forecasts barely put us in 8 by the end of the month and the effects won't be felt right away so I would expect that in mid latitudes for November. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Here is 5 and 6 though, 5 seems to be the reasonable look we have for that time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Most MJO forecasts barely put us in 8 by the end of the month and the effects won't be felt right away so I would expect that in mid latitudes for November. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Here is 5 and 6 though, 5 seems to be the reasonable look we have for that time frame. Even better yet to our current pattern here is 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 11 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Most MJO forecasts barely put us in 8 by the end of the month and the effects won't be felt right away so I would expect that in mid latitudes for November. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Here is 5 and 6 though, 5 seems to be the reasonable look we have for that time frame. The actual forcing is forecast to be closer to 8 the end of the month with strong subsidence over the Maritime Continent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The actual forcing is forecast to solidly be in 8 near the end of the month with strong subsidence over the Maritime Continent. Sensible weather lags what phase the MJO is in. We are in Phase 5 currently but we certainly look to be in a Phase 4 with the current weather pattern. I would expect Phase 8 influences to be in November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 55 minutes ago, GaWx said: 1. What are the implications of a strengthening MJO wave in Oct? 2. Does anyone have a link to historical MJO charts back to the middle 1970s? I’ve looked at these extensively in the past for purposes of identifying analogs but can no longer find them. Example of one I saved: Interesting to note that the most severe Atlantic hurricane season on record would follow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 8 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Sensible weather lags what phase the MJO is in. We are in Phase 5 currently but we certainly look to be in a Phase 4 with the current weather pattern. I would expect Phase 8 influences to be in November. Sometimes there is a lag and other times it’s almost instant. The lags can be longer when the AO needs to shift like we saw earlier this month since it has more moving parts. But when forcing shifts to near South America and Mexico a trough can pop up out West relatively quickly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Sometimes there is a lag and other times it’s almost instant. The lags can be longer when the AO needs to shift like we saw earlier this month since it has more moving parts. But when forcing shifts to near South America and Mexico a trough can pop up out West relatively quickly. This seems like a pretty major AO shift to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 12 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Interesting to note that the most severe Atlantic hurricane season on record would follow. Do you know where to find these? I’ve searched and searched and can no longer find a link to these great charts. I’ve been using them for at least a decade. Fortunately I have some saved here like this one, but those are all I can see now. They were copyrighted by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology. If nobody knows here, I may try to email the BoM when I get a chance if I can find a good email. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: This seems like a pretty major AO shift to me. Probably one of the strongest AO rises we have ever seen in October as the AO and NAO volatility has been off the charts in recent years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: Do you know where to find these? I’ve searched and searched and can no longer find a link to these great charts. Fortunately I have some saved here like this one, but those are all I can see now. They were copyrighted by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology. If nobody knows here, I may try to email the BoM when I get a chance if I can find a good email. Maybe this is what you are looking for? http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Probably one of the strongest AO rises we have ever seen in October as the AO and NAO volatility has been off the charts in recent years. Solid rise and fall would mean many moving parts. I do think the trough will come, not being denied in that aspect but I would expect the forcing from phase 8 to come into November. Now I do not necessarily agree this will be the look for November though maybe after the trough swings through? (hence the red border, some of the lowest probabilities you will find) I do find it weird though that we would have one phase show up more than another meaning we don't even see Phase 7 pop in for October if we are getting an instant reaction but we do see Phase 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 7 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Maybe this is what you are looking for? http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring That’s it! Thank you! I’m saving this as a bookmark this time. I have many bookmarks but for whatever reason I hadn’t saved that one and had instead always gotten that link easily via Googling “MJO historical data”. Recently when I’ve been Googling that, that exact link no longer was appearing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 10 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Solid rise and fall would mean many moving parts. I do think the trough will come, not being denied in that aspect but I would expect the forcing from phase 8 to come into November. Now I do not necessarily agree this will be the look for November though maybe after the trough swings through? (hence the red border, some of the lowest probabilities you will find) I do find it weird though that we would have one phase show up more than another meaning we don't even see Phase 7 pop in for October if we are getting an instant reaction but we do see Phase 8. The forcing will be on the move so may not spend much time in phase 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Probably one of the strongest AO rises we have ever seen in October as the AO and NAO volatility has been off the charts in recent years. Thanks for mentioning this. Because of what you said I was curious enough to go through the dailies. The upcoming ~10/23 peak won’t be just one of the strongest +AOs on record in Oct. It will be THE strongest Oct +AO peak on record and by a large margin: The current strongest Oct on record (back to 1950) is the 3.754 of 10/24/2008, which is about to be exceeded by ~1+! Strongest Oct +AO peaks back to 1950: 3.754 10/24/2008 3.560 10/6/1994 3.425 10/27/2003 3.379 10/10/2022 3.371 10/30/1983 3.294 10/31/1978 3.184 10/24/1989 3.078 10/20/1954 3.037 10/10/2001 3.009 10/17/1986 Since 1950, the only AO peaks exceeding +4.75 have been during Dec-March: 5.078 1/20/1957 4.917 3/16/1968 5.040 12/2/1979 4.800 12/5/1979 5.582 1/14/1989 5.147 2/9/1990 5.991 2/26/1990 5.245 1/14/1993 4.909 1/21/1993 5.588 3/8/2015 5.910 2/10/2020 6.073 2/21/2020 5.536 3/11/2021 (Note that the very highest peaks (6 of them at 5.5+) were almost all within Feb 10th-Mar 11th.) So with all of the +4.75+ peaks back to 1950 in Dec-Mar up til now, this is even more evidence of how anomalous the upcoming +AO peak will be! Even Nov has yet to have one at +4.75+ with its highest being the +4.544 of 11/2/1978. (Only Novs with a peak of +4+ were 1978, 1994, and 2013.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 4 hours ago, qg_omega said: Agreed https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1847320190536843692?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg That wasn't my point. ..I am referring to the amplitude of the MC MJO later this month as an indicator for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That wasn't my point. ..I am referring to the amplitude of the MC MJO later this month as an indicator for winter. Yeah, if the newer runs are correct and the MJO spends the rest of this month at an amplitude of 2 or higher, then this autumn will be grouped with the colder la nina winters by this measure (other measures may diverge though) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Thanks for mentioning this. Because of what you said I was curious enough to go through the dailies. The upcoming ~10/23 peak won’t be just one of the strongest +AOs on record in Oct. It will be THE strongest Oct +AO peak on record and by a large margin: The current strongest Oct on record (back to 1950) is the 3.754 of 10/24/2008, which is about to be exceeded by ~1+! Strongest Oct +AO peaks back to 1950: 3.754 10/24/2008 3.560 10/6/1994 3.425 10/27/2003 3.379 10/10/2022 3.371 10/30/1983 3.294 10/31/1978 3.184 10/24/1989 3.078 10/20/1954 3.037 10/10/2001 3.009 10/17/1986 Since 1950, the only AO peaks exceeding +4.75 have been during Dec-March: 5.078 1/20/1957 4.917 3/16/1968 5.040 12/2/1979 4.800 12/5/1979 5.582 1/14/1989 5.147 2/9/1990 5.991 2/26/1990 5.245 1/14/1993 4.909 1/21/1993 5.588 3/8/2015 5.910 2/10/2020 6.073 2/21/2020 5.536 3/11/2021 (Note that the very highest peaks (6 of them at 5.5+) were almost all within Feb 10th-Mar 11th.) So with all of the +4.75+ peaks back to 1950 in Dec-Mar up til now, this is even more evidence of how anomalous the upcoming +AO peak will be! Even Nov has yet to have one at +4.75+ with its highest being the +4.544 of 11/2/1978. (Only Novs with a peak of +4+ were 1978, 1994, and 2013.) Do I see a correlation between Octobers with a 3+ AO peak and the following winter’s mean AO during La Niña? No although the sample size is small: Niña Octobers with a 3+ AO peak: -1954: moderate -AO winter -0.7 -1983: weak +AO winter +0.3 -1989: strong +AO winter +1.2 -2008: weak +AO winter +0.3 -2022: moderate -AO winter -0.6 AVG winter AO: +0.1 (neutral) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That wasn't my point. ..I am referring to the amplitude of the MC MJO later this month as an indicator for winter. It’s well timed for the record warmth upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 12 minutes ago, GaWx said: Do I see a correlation between Octobers with a 3+ AO peak and the following winter’s mean AO during La Niña? No although the sample size is small: Niña Octobers with a 3+ AO peak: -1954: moderate -AO winter -0.7 -1983: weak +AO winter +0.3 -1989: strong +AO winter +1.2 -2008: weak +AO winter +0.3 -2022: moderate -AO winter -0.6 AVG winter AO: +0.1 (neutral) Not a long list, but at least indicative of a winter favoring neutral. Again, that supports the idea of an up and down winter being favored. I do believe you can scratch 89/90 off the list as November is not looking anonymously cold like 11/89 (assuming that you are using the month of December to identify the winter.) Unfortunately, very few winters on that list I'd be interested in reliving! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 57 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Not a long list, but at least indicative of a winter favoring neutral. Again, that supports the idea of an up and down winter being favored. I do believe you can scratch 89/90 off the list as November is not looking anonymously cold like 11/89 (assuming that you are using the month of December to identify the winter.) Unfortunately, very few winters on that list I'd be interested in reliving! Lol -The year was referring to Oct but same idea as your assumption. -I’d love a 1989-90 repeat as Dec gave us down here the first major winter storm in 17 winters! The next one wasn’t for another 28 winters! Since 1900, this area has had a major winter storm about once every 20 winters on average. But there are a good number more lighter measurable events along with an even higher number of trace events. But not even a trace of wintry precip here since 1/2018….7 winters is a new record long period w/o even a T! This one was from an offshore SE coastal storm which was windy and one of the coldest ever (snowing with low 20s….can you believe that way down here and close to the coast?!?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 I'm encouraged if we can even just get the MJO rotating through the cooler phases at this point. Obviously no guarantees of anything, but at least in my mind it means a better chance of doing it again in the winter and at least some windows for winter weather. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 The rest of October through Nov 2nd is forecasted by the latest Euro ensemble mean to have near record low US pop weighted HDDs for the period (on left) <1/2 the normal. That means for CDDs (on right) near record high levels for the same period (3 times the normal). To put it into a different perspective, normally HDDs are 8 times as high as CDDs for this period, but they’re forecasted to be only 1.25 times as high! The purple line is based on the 12Z Euro ensemble mean (yellow was the 0Z). The dashed green lines are normals: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: It’s well timed for the record warmth upcoming Yea, I just want to see high amplitude MC phases this month...I really don't care about the weather itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I just want to see high amplitude MC phases this month...I really don't care about the weather itself. I just want one factor to be in our favor (where you live is a different story) for something outside of the bottom gutter of a winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 3 hours ago, GaWx said: The purple line is based on the 12Z Euro ensemble mean (yellow was the 0Z). The dashed green lines are normals: This is pretty cool. CME has HDD and CDD averages for big cities months ahead of time as average departures that you can look at, and trade if you feel so compelled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: I just want one factor to be in our favor (where you live is a different story) for something outside of the bottom gutter of a winter. Even here...I haven't sniffed normal snowfall since 2017-2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 Happy November.. 0z GFS has a 593dm ridge over a large part of the Mid Atlantic for Nov 1. Anything close to that in verification should be 80s.. +NAO's are really correlating with some warm temperature spikes in the region so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 Since 1993, strong H5 around the Mid Atlantic Oct 31-Nov 1, rolled forward to the following Winter (Nov-Feb) (11 analogs/32) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 14 hours ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, if the newer runs are correct and the MJO spends the rest of this month at an amplitude of 2 or higher, then this autumn will be grouped with the colder la nina winters by this measure (other measures may diverge though) I will update it when the verifying numbers come in but the colder groupings were near or stronger than +3. That being said, it’s just one potential indicator and no guarantee it will workout again. Just something to keep in mind. October 2022…Phase 6 peak +2.177…..ONI….-1.0 October 2021….Phase 5 peak +2.087….ONI….-1.0 October 2020…Phase 5 peak +2.818….ONI…..-1.3 October 2017….Phase 6 peak +3.353….ONI….-1.0 October 2016….Phase 5 peak +1.800….ONI….-0.7 October 2011….Phase 6 peak +1.674….ONI….-1.1 October 2010….Phase 5 peak +2.880…ONI…..-1.6 Latest daily value http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring 5 2.3287644 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Since 1993, strong H5 around the Mid Atlantic Oct 31-Nov 1, rolled forward to the following Winter (Nov-Feb) (11 analogs/32) The new extended ensembles are drier than a frigging bone for early-mid November in the east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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