2024-2025 La Nina

[mitchnick]

Strengthening MJO wave on weeklies.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202410190000

Pretty decent agreement with other modeling too.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I wonder if models missed this MJO wave.. they trended significantly more -PNA in the last few days 

 

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

The Euro had it this strong a while ago, and the gefs had it much weaker. Seems the gefs “caved” and the mjo 5-6 wave is going strong. It seems to be around 2 in amplitude now, and going even higher in the short term.

 

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Strengthening MJO wave on weeklies.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202410190000

Pretty decent agreement with other modeling too.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Something to keep an eye on over the final third of October @bluewave..

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Something to keep an eye on over the final third of October @bluewave..

 What are the implications of a strengthening MJO wave in Oct?

 

[qg_omega]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Something to keep an eye on over the final third of October @bluewave..

Agreed

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1847320190536843692?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Agreed

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1847320190536843692?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

Yeah, this is why we are forecast to get such a deep -PNA trough in the West later in the month. It’s one of the few times of the year when the MJO 8 is this warm. Especially combined with La Niña and -PDO.
 

[so_whats_happening]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this is why we are forecast to get such a deep -PNA trough in the West later in the month. It’s one of the few times of the year when the MJO 8 is this warm. Especially combined with La Niña and -PDO.
 

Most MJO forecasts barely put us in 8 by the end of the month and the effects won't be felt right away so I would expect that in mid latitudes for November.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Here is 5 and 6 though, 5 seems to be the reasonable look we have for that time frame.

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Most MJO forecasts barely put us in 8 by the end of the month and the effects won't be felt right away so I would expect that in mid latitudes for November.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Here is 5 and 6 though, 5 seems to be the reasonable look we have for that time frame.

Even better yet to our current pattern here is 4

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Most MJO forecasts barely put us in 8 by the end of the month and the effects won't be felt right away so I would expect that in mid latitudes for November.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Here is 5 and 6 though, 5 seems to be the reasonable look we have for that time frame.

The actual forcing is forecast to  be closer to 8 the end of the month with strong subsidence over the Maritime Continent. 

 

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The actual forcing is forecast to solidly be in 8 near the end of the month with strong subsidence over the Maritime Continent. 

 

 

 

Sensible weather lags what phase the MJO is in. We are in Phase 5 currently but we certainly look to be in a Phase 4 with the current weather pattern. I would expect Phase 8 influences to be in November.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. What are the implications of a strengthening MJO wave in Oct?

2. Does anyone have a link to historical MJO charts back to the middle 1970s? I’ve looked at these extensively in the past for purposes of identifying analogs but can no longer find them. Example of one I saved:

Interesting to note that the most severe Atlantic hurricane season on record would follow.

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Sensible weather lags what phase the MJO is in. We are in Phase 5 currently but we certainly look to be in a Phase 4 with the current weather pattern. I would expect Phase 8 influences to be in November.

Sometimes there is a lag and other times it’s almost instant. The lags can be longer when the AO needs to shift like we saw earlier this month since it has more moving parts. But when forcing shifts to near South America and Mexico a trough can pop up out West relatively quickly. 

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Sometimes there is a lag and other times it’s almost instant. The lags can be longer when the AO needs to shift like we saw earlier this month since it has more moving parts. But when forcing shifts to near South America and Mexico a trough can pop up out West relatively quickly. 

This seems like a pretty major AO shift to me.

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Interesting to note that the most severe Atlantic hurricane season on record would follow.

Do you know where to find these? I’ve searched and searched and can no longer find a link to these great charts. I’ve been using them for at least a decade. Fortunately I have some saved here like this one, but those are all I can see now. They were copyrighted by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology. If nobody knows here, I may try to email the BoM when I get a chance if I can find a good email.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

This seems like a pretty major AO shift to me.

Probably one of the strongest AO rises we have ever seen in October as the AO and NAO volatility has been off the charts in recent years.

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Do you know where to find these? I’ve searched and searched and can no longer find a link to these great charts. Fortunately I have some saved here like this one, but those are all I can see now. They were copyrighted by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology. If nobody knows here, I may try to email the BoM when I get a chance if I can find a good email.

Maybe this is what you are looking for?

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Probably one of the strongest AO rises we have ever seen in October as the AO and NAO volatility has been off the charts in recent years.

Solid rise and fall would mean many moving parts. I do think the trough will come, not being denied in that aspect but I would expect the forcing from phase 8 to come into November. Now I do not necessarily agree this will be the look for November though maybe after the trough swings through? (hence the red border, some of the lowest probabilities you will find) I do find it weird though that we would have one phase show up more than another meaning we don't even see Phase 7 pop in for October if we are getting an instant reaction but we do see Phase 8.

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Maybe this is what you are looking for?

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring

That’s it! Thank you! I’m saving this as a bookmark this time. I have many bookmarks but for whatever reason I hadn’t saved that one and had instead always gotten that link easily via Googling “MJO historical data”. Recently when I’ve been Googling that, that exact link no longer was appearing.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Solid rise and fall would mean many moving parts. I do think the trough will come, not being denied in that aspect but I would expect the forcing from phase 8 to come into November. Now I do not necessarily agree this will be the look for November though maybe after the trough swings through? (hence the red border, some of the lowest probabilities you will find) I do find it weird though that we would have one phase show up more than another meaning we don't even see Phase 7 pop in for October if we are getting an instant reaction but we do see Phase 8.

The forcing will be on the move so may not spend much time in phase 8.

 

 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Probably one of the strongest AO rises we have ever seen in October as the AO and NAO volatility has been off the charts in recent years.

 Thanks for mentioning this. Because of what you said I was curious enough to go through the dailies. The upcoming ~10/23 peak won’t be just one of the strongest +AOs on record in Oct. It will be THE strongest Oct +AO peak on record and by a large margin:

 The current strongest Oct on record (back to 1950) is the 3.754 of 10/24/2008, which is about to be exceeded by ~1+!

 Strongest Oct +AO peaks back to 1950:

3.754 10/24/2008
3.560 10/6/1994
3.425 10/27/2003
3.379 10/10/2022
3.371 10/30/1983
3.294 10/31/1978
3.184 10/24/1989
3.078 10/20/1954
3.037 10/10/2001
3.009 10/17/1986

 

 Since 1950, the only AO peaks exceeding +4.75 have been during Dec-March:

5.078 1/20/1957
4.917 3/16/1968
5.040 12/2/1979
4.800 12/5/1979
5.582 1/14/1989
5.147 2/9/1990
5.991 2/26/1990
5.245 1/14/1993
4.909 1/21/1993
5.588 3/8/2015
5.910 2/10/2020
6.073 2/21/2020
5.536 3/11/2021

 (Note that the very highest peaks (6 of them at 5.5+) were almost all within Feb 10th-Mar 11th.)

 So with all of the +4.75+ peaks back to 1950 in Dec-Mar up til now, this is even more evidence of how anomalous the upcoming +AO peak will be! Even Nov has yet to have one at +4.75+ with its highest being the +4.544 of 11/2/1978. (Only Novs with a peak of +4+ were 1978, 1994, and 2013.)

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Agreed

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1847320190536843692?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

That wasn't my point. ..I am referring to the amplitude of the MC MJO later this month as an indicator for winter.

[Terpeast]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That wasn't my point. ..I am referring to the amplitude of the MC MJO later this month as an indicator for winter.

Yeah, if the newer runs are correct and the MJO spends the rest of this month at an amplitude of 2 or higher, then this autumn will be grouped with the colder la nina winters by this measure (other measures may diverge though)

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks for mentioning this. Because of what you said I was curious enough to go through the dailies. The upcoming ~10/23 peak won’t be just one of the strongest +AOs on record in Oct. It will be THE strongest Oct +AO peak on record and by a large margin:

 The current strongest Oct on record (back to 1950) is the 3.754 of 10/24/2008, which is about to be exceeded by ~1+!

 Strongest Oct +AO peaks back to 1950:

3.754 10/24/2008
3.560 10/6/1994
3.425 10/27/2003
3.379 10/10/2022
3.371 10/30/1983
3.294 10/31/1978
3.184 10/24/1989
3.078 10/20/1954
3.037 10/10/2001
3.009 10/17/1986

 

 Since 1950, the only AO peaks exceeding +4.75 have been during Dec-March:

5.078 1/20/1957
4.917 3/16/1968
5.040 12/2/1979
4.800 12/5/1979
5.582 1/14/1989
5.147 2/9/1990
5.991 2/26/1990
5.245 1/14/1993
4.909 1/21/1993
5.588 3/8/2015
5.910 2/10/2020
6.073 2/21/2020
5.536 3/11/2021

 (Note that the very highest peaks (6 of them at 5.5+) were almost all within Feb 10th-Mar 11th.)

 So with all of the +4.75+ peaks back to 1950 in Dec-Mar up til now, this is even more evidence of how anomalous the upcoming +AO peak will be! Even Nov has yet to have one at +4.75+ with its highest being the +4.544 of 11/2/1978. (Only Novs with a peak of +4+ were 1978, 1994, and 2013.)

 Do I see a correlation between Octobers with a 3+ AO peak and the following winter’s mean AO during La Niña? No although the sample size is small:

Niña Octobers with a 3+ AO peak:

-1954: moderate -AO winter -0.7

-1983: weak +AO winter +0.3

-1989: strong +AO winter +1.2

-2008: weak +AO winter +0.3

-2022: moderate -AO winter -0.6

AVG winter AO: +0.1 (neutral)

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That wasn't my point. ..I am referring to the amplitude of the MC MJO later this month as an indicator for winter.

It’s well timed for the record warmth upcoming 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Do I see a correlation between Octobers with a 3+ AO peak and the following winter’s mean AO during La Niña? No although the sample size is small:

Niña Octobers with a 3+ AO peak:

-1954: moderate -AO winter -0.7

-1983: weak +AO winter +0.3

-1989: strong +AO winter +1.2

-2008: weak +AO winter +0.3

-2022: moderate -AO winter -0.6

AVG winter AO: +0.1 (neutral)

Not a long list, but at least indicative of a winter favoring neutral. Again, that supports the idea of an up and down winter being favored. I do believe you can scratch 89/90 off the list as November is not looking anonymously cold like 11/89 (assuming that you are using the month of December to identify the winter.) Unfortunately, very few winters on that list I'd be interested in reliving! Lol

[GaWx]

57 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Not a long list, but at least indicative of a winter favoring neutral. Again, that supports the idea of an up and down winter being favored. I do believe you can scratch 89/90 off the list as November is not looking anonymously cold like 11/89 (assuming that you are using the month of December to identify the winter.) Unfortunately, very few winters on that list I'd be interested in reliving! Lol

-The year was referring to Oct but same idea as your assumption.

-I’d love a 1989-90 repeat as Dec gave us down here the first major winter storm in 17 winters! The next one wasn’t for another 28 winters! Since 1900, this area has had a major winter storm about once every 20 winters on average. But there are a good number more lighter measurable events along with an even higher number of trace events. But not even a trace of wintry precip here since 1/2018….7 winters is a new record long period w/o even a T!
 
 This one was from an offshore SE coastal storm which was windy and one of the coldest ever (snowing with low 20s….can you believe that way down here and close to the coast?!?)

[BlizzardWx]

I'm encouraged if we can even just get the MJO rotating through the cooler phases at this point. Obviously no guarantees of anything, but at least in my mind it means a better chance of doing it again in the winter and at least some windows for winter weather. 

[GaWx]

 The rest of October through Nov 2nd is forecasted by the latest Euro ensemble mean to have near record low US pop weighted HDDs for the period (on left) <1/2 the normal. That means for CDDs (on right) near record high levels for the same period (3 times the normal). To put it into a different perspective, normally HDDs are 8 times as high as CDDs for this period, but they’re forecasted to be only 1.25 times as high!

 The purple line is based on the 12Z Euro ensemble mean (yellow was the 0Z). The dashed green lines are normals:

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

It’s well timed for the record warmth upcoming 

Yea, I just want to see high amplitude MC phases this month...I really don't care about the weather itself.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I just want to see high amplitude MC phases this month...I really don't care about the weather itself.

I just want one factor to be in our favor (where you live is a different story) for something outside of the bottom gutter of a winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

The purple line is based on the 12Z Euro ensemble mean (yellow was the 0Z). The dashed green lines are normals:

This is pretty cool. CME has HDD and CDD averages for big cities months ahead of time as average departures that you can look at, and trade if you feel so compelled.