2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

This is correct. It has been warm CONUS wide, but the core of the warmth has been centered over the plains. We aren’t seeing a trough out west with storms barreling into the Pacific Northwest like the last 2 falls (that pattern then continued into winter, leading to back to back ratters).

For the NAO…. Im not sure it will be a good or bad thing yet. The signals are fairly strong for a +NAO winter, but that doesn’t tell us anything in itself. The -NAO patterns we had in recent years have been bad for the east because they have been south based events that linked up with the SE ridge. A raging north based raging +NAO where the cold is bottled up over the pole is obviously bad (this is what happened in 19-20, 01-02, etc), while a south based +NAO can actually be a good thing depending on where you live (14-15, 13-14, 07-08, 92-93 and 93-94 all had south based +NAOs).

Dude, night and day between your post quality from now to like 3 years ago...I remember when everything was a blizzard with you..like literally.  Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

Interesting, in the latest IRI update on ENSO the spread has decreased significantly and the mean has converged around a -0.5 ONI peak

I saw that...I don't read too much into that, but it may cause me to cut back a hair on the peak in the final product. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not seeing these big California troughs thus far. In fact we've seen record warmth in the SW which has fed into the large positive SST anomalies off the West Coast and much more SW ridging. 

PDO will be negative but that's another competing influence it'll be up against. I think the Pacific could be a lot more favorable this season, which matters much more than a very negative NAO/AO. 

In fact it might be better for us to see a +NAO given its diminished effects. 

You sound like raindance before he evaporated. I agree to an extent...

[George001]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, night and day between your post quality from now to like 3 years ago...I remember when everything was a blizzard with you..like literally.  Lol

I appreciate the recognition, after all those failed blizzard calls I decided to read up more, educate myself and try to be as objective as possible. I still have my biases, but I find it a lot more rewarding putting in the work to learn from all the great posters on these long range threads such as yourself, Raindance, Bluewave, Snowman, GaWx, Don, Chuck etc rather than just wishcasting. It is a science board after all, the point is the pursuit of knowledge and truth. 

All that being said, the old weenie George is not dead. When the time is right (as in large scale cross guidance AND pattern support for a blizzard, NOT one or two rouge OP runs in the mid or long range), the weenie side of me will come to life again in the tracking thread. The days of me hyping up every fart in the atmosphere to be a Boston blizzard though? Those days are long gone. I’d rather appreciate the winter of 2014-2015 for what it was, a once in a lifetime event rather than setting myself up to be disappointed by having unrealistic expectations about my climo. 

[George001]

Speaking of Raindance it’s a shame he’s gone. I was not a fan of his idea that you shouldn’t use the work of others (I am a big believer in the idea that incredible insights are developed by standing on the shoulders of giants, as Issac Newton once said). Although his bedside manner left a lot to be desired at times, he knew his shit and I learned a lot from him. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, George001 said:

Speaking of Raindance it’s a shame he’s gone. I was not a fan of his idea that you shouldn’t use the work of others (I am a big believer in the idea that incredible insights are developed by standing on the shoulders of giants, as Issac Newton once said). Although his bedside manner left a lot to be desired at times, he knew his shit and I learned a lot from him. 

Yea, he was a jerk, but a very good forecaster. I am not sure why you would post on a public weather forum if not for the desire to exchange forecasting techniques and share a passion for the weather. I did some snooping on the internet and it seems he was in it to try to pitch an idea similar to fantasy weather, but couldn't garner any investors so gave it up.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

@snowman19 predicted this dry October pattern well in advance, and the MJO going through 4-6 if I remember correctly? Were seasonal models showing this?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, he was a jerk, but a very good forecaster. I am not sure why you would post on a public weather forum if not for the desire to exchange forecasting techniques and share a passion for the weather. I did some snooping on the internet and it seems he was in it to try to pitch an idea similar to fantasy weather, but couldn't garner any investors so gave it up.

I thought it was pretty fair dialogue. I used to be that way in my early days, you get passionate about something, and feel that it's not being handled correctly.  Hopefully he still posts about how the global climate is comparing to his local climate. There aren't really enough long range weather forecasters.. Most people just describe what is happening, but probably 1/20 people roll that forward and try to make a long range guess, win or lose.  It did end up being a hyperactive hurricane season, with us being on the 15th name in October. 10 hurricanes. 4 major hurricanes. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I thought it was pretty fair dialogue. I used to be that way in my early days, you get passionate about something, and feel that it's not being handled correctly.  Hopefully he still posts about how the global climate is comparing to his local climate. There aren't really enough long range weather forecasters.. Most people just describe what is happening, but probably 1/20 people roll that forward and try to make a long range guess, win or lose.  It did end up being a hyperactive hurricane season, with us being on the 15th name in October. 10 hurricanes. 4 major hurricanes. 

You thought accusing me of plagiarizing his work was fair dialogue??

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't care about passionately debating weather...no issue with that.

[George001]

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You thought accusing me of plagiarizing his work was fair dialogue??

Yeah as someone who has been reading your blogs for years I’m going to disagree with that. You did reference his work, but you made sure to name him and give him credit. There really isn’t anything wrong with that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah as someone who has been reading your blogs for years I’m going to disagree with that. You did reference his work, but you made sure to name him and give him credit. There really isn’t anything wrong with that.

I used his ACE composites...I not only cited it, but hyperlinked his twitter and strongly recommended him as a follow....but that isn't even it. He claimed I literally copied his seasonal forecast composites. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You thought accusing me of plagiarizing his work was fair dialogue??

Oh, I meant in regard to challenging his thoughts. He wasn't right a lot this year, citing -AMO analogs when the Atlantic was slow (it was the super +NAO causing a cooling of the waters), and +PDO early on in the year, citing a lot of cool month analogs. But we'll have to see how this Winter goes. He was very good good the last 2 years though, so 2/3. The AMO is back to near record warm levels now, only behind last year. It waxes/wanes with different NAO states. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

La Niña should be peaking pretty quickly...

Does anyone know here to find an archived version of this to access past data?

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Oh, I meant in regard to challenging his thoughts. He wasn't right a lot this year, citing -AMO analogs when the Atlantic was slow (it was the super +NAO causing a cooling of the waters), and +PDO early on in the year, citing a lot of cool month analogs. But we'll have to see how this Winter goes. He was very good good the last 2 years though, so 2/3. The AMO is back to near record warm levels now, only behind last year. It waxes/wanes with different NAO states. 

I also didn't care for how condescending he could be, either. Plenty of folks here that I don't see eye to eye with, but don't have any issues.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, he was a jerk, but a very good forecaster. I am not sure why you would post on a public weather forum if not for the desire to exchange forecasting techniques and share a passion for the weather. I did some snooping on the internet and it seems he was in it to try to pitch an idea similar to fantasy weather, but couldn't garner any investors so gave it up.

Any idea why he left? And...fantasy weather? That's not like Fantasy football is it? Lol

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

@snowman19 predicted this dry October pattern well in advance, and the MJO going through 4-6 if I remember correctly? Were seasonal models showing this?

Yeah, Roundy did well .

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Any idea why he left? And...fantasy weather? That's not like Fantasy football is it? Lol

Kind of...

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/raindance-weather#/

The Purpose of Raindance Weather 

 

My name is Jacob Mazel. I am trying to create crowd-sourced seasonal weather forecasts by turning my current website Raindance Weather which is little more than an Indiegogo demonstration currently, into a weather prediction market. For daily forecasts, weather prediction markets are already a proven concept (Weather Prediction Market). My goal is develop a seasonal weather forecasting market for US cities - i.e is the winter going to be snowier than usual in Albuquerque? How about in Chicago or in your city?

It is my belief that over time strong opinions about the weather from amateurs would produce a very reliable seasonal weather forecast.

I have some evidence to back up my belief. Before Albuquerque's snow season of 2014-2015, I had my co-workers guess how much snow Albuquerque would get each month. Winners, in terms of forecasts matching observed conditions, received free pizza. With the exception of February when we had very rare heavy snow, the overall predictions were quite accurate. You can see the results for yourself below (original hand written guesses follow the Excel summary).

 

With more people betting, a way for betters to indicate confidence in their bet, and knowledge of who had good foresight from previous forecasting contests, the results would have been even better. Users on Raindance Weather would also be given more information that my co-workers were - I only gave out snow averages by month, using the winter of 1931-1932 to 2013-2014 for my base period.

Most weather data can be easily verified too.

 

Right now, all I have is a very basic template I built, and I can not afford to hire people to help me develop it properly without funding.

 

 

I am interested in doing this because I would like accurate seasonal forecasts for my city, Albuquerque, New Mexico, and I am sure people in other places, particularly in the West where mountains and topography make seasonal forecasting difficult would be interested in good, place specific, long range forecasts, 

More generally, I have a long standing interest in predictions and what makes them work or not, and this project allows me to explore that interest further. I've made some bold predictions in the video game industry in the past (Five year prediction) which essentially verified (Forecast Verification). 

I would like to give people not just the opportunity to prove they can predict long range weather trends well, but the wisdom of a forecast generated by the masses. 

 

What We Need & What You Get

Raindance Weather currently does not allow for users to register and as it stands now you can't use it for forecasting. This crowdfunding pitch is to try to raise $65,000 to develop out that functionality. For that much money I can:

• Hire web development help ($20,000 - $60,000). The full $60,000 would cover tying the fake betting scheme to user accounts while $20,000 covers a much more basic site.
• Provide custom tools and visualizations to analyze forecasts and forecasters.
• Pay for servers 
• Hire researchers to help with collecting data for various cities. These people would also help with forecast verification. Forecasts will be verified with NOW Data, and Weather Warehouse data for the USA. Both NOW and the Weather Warehouse archive data from the National Weather Service (NWS).
• Reimburse some of my personal costs - my logo, time, web video, domain, legal research, new laptop ($600).
• Advertise / convince people to participate and stay on the site.
• Produce custom, big data research.

If I don't reach my goal fully, the website will become less sophisticated, but there are other approaches. One approach would be Survey Monkey. Even with less money it would be possible to buy "survey takers" from Survey Monkey, and then use their insights to generate forecasts.

 

Why Should I Contribute?

Contributing to this project puts you on your way to seeing how people from vastly different backgrounds think seasonal weather will play out in your backyard. If you think the weatherman on TV making long-range forecasts is an idiot, you also have a way to prove that you're right, or that he is wrong. I certainly can't stop you from entering in predictions from your TV weatherman to see how they verify...you can be the curmudgeon here!

More generally, by contributing to this campaign, you are helping me undergo a grand experiment that should yield some interesting results:

• Can a crowd produce an accurate seasonal weather forecast?
• Can the crowd match or beat individual expert forecasters?
• We can answer these questions with user interest and ongoing participation.
• Overtime, the results may become good enough to save lives and dollars.
• There are a hand full of brilliant long range forecasters out there now - Joe Bastardi, Dave Tolleris, Joe D'Aleo - but they are aging. One of the benefits of contributing to this campaign would be to help discover the next wave of brilliant long-range forecasters.

One of the reasons I want web development help is to collect basic user information. We can collect and analyze this information in all sorts of ways.

Do men make better forecasters? How about older people? In our snow experiment, the older folks in the office won the individual months each time, but I, at the age of 27, had the closest seasonal call. Do people living in the area they are forecasting predict differently than people outside the area? 

 

I am curious to see if studying the weather actually makes you a good forecaster. We could ask people to rate their knowledge of the weather when they sign up and then see if the people who rated themselves highly actually forecast well.

 

Risks & Challenges

There are many challenges to this project. One is interest. This campaign is designed not just to raise money, but to see if interest in this project exists on a large enough scale. For forecasts to be possible, users will need to continue to bet their fake currency over time, which means...we need users.

I am hoping the possibility of being known as the best forecaster for something like snowfall outlooks, will keep users interested. I would like to offer some kind of prize, beyond additional fake currency for the winners, but this gets a little bit tricky legally. Still researching how to do this.

To promote interest, I will reach out to various weather forums, weather forecasters with many twitter followers, and use Fiverr favors for promotion. 

 

In the future, I will also ask users what types of forecasting they would like to see. 

• Will Florida get hit by a hurricane this year? 
• Will sea ice reach record lows?
• Is there really a Maunder Minimum coming? 
• Perhaps we could even look at global warming issues. Anything verifiable would be doable with user interest.

One possible final way to keep users interested would be to allow proven users to post forecasts of their choice. The users would be able to sell their forecasts, and keep most of the money (Raindance would keep some of it too.)

 

I used to work for a video game website, we were never super-popular, but we had steady, reliable users, so I believe once a base of users is established, the site could become quite useful and interesting. 

Other Ways You Can Help

If you can't contribute financially, please pitch the site.

• If you are in a sports league - pitch this idea there. This is essentially fantasy weather.
• Use the Indiegogo share tools.
• Promote this campaign with Facebook, Twitter, Linkedin, Pinterest, Etsy, Tumblr, Snapchat, Kik, Email, Texts, Conversation, whatever it takes - it all helps!

Thanks everybody!

[George001]

56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Kind of...

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/raindance-weather#/

The Purpose of Raindance Weather 

 

My name is Jacob Mazel. I am trying to create crowd-sourced seasonal weather forecasts by turning my current website Raindance Weather which is little more than an Indiegogo demonstration currently, into a weather prediction market. For daily forecasts, weather prediction markets are already a proven concept (Weather Prediction Market). My goal is develop a seasonal weather forecasting market for US cities - i.e is the winter going to be snowier than usual in Albuquerque? How about in Chicago or in your city?

It is my belief that over time strong opinions about the weather from amateurs would produce a very reliable seasonal weather forecast.

I have some evidence to back up my belief. Before Albuquerque's snow season of 2014-2015, I had my co-workers guess how much snow Albuquerque would get each month. Winners, in terms of forecasts matching observed conditions, received free pizza. With the exception of February when we had very rare heavy snow, the overall predictions were quite accurate. You can see the results for yourself below (original hand written guesses follow the Excel summary).

 

With more people betting, a way for betters to indicate confidence in their bet, and knowledge of who had good foresight from previous forecasting contests, the results would have been even better. Users on Raindance Weather would also be given more information that my co-workers were - I only gave out snow averages by month, using the winter of 1931-1932 to 2013-2014 for my base period.

Most weather data can be easily verified too.

 

Right now, all I have is a very basic template I built, and I can not afford to hire people to help me develop it properly without funding.

 

 

I am interested in doing this because I would like accurate seasonal forecasts for my city, Albuquerque, New Mexico, and I am sure people in other places, particularly in the West where mountains and topography make seasonal forecasting difficult would be interested in good, place specific, long range forecasts, 

More generally, I have a long standing interest in predictions and what makes them work or not, and this project allows me to explore that interest further. I've made some bold predictions in the video game industry in the past (Five year prediction) which essentially verified (Forecast Verification). 

I would like to give people not just the opportunity to prove they can predict long range weather trends well, but the wisdom of a forecast generated by the masses. 

 

What We Need & What You Get

Raindance Weather currently does not allow for users to register and as it stands now you can't use it for forecasting. This crowdfunding pitch is to try to raise $65,000 to develop out that functionality. For that much money I can:

• Hire web development help ($20,000 - $60,000). The full $60,000 would cover tying the fake betting scheme to user accounts while $20,000 covers a much more basic site.
• Provide custom tools and visualizations to analyze forecasts and forecasters.
• Pay for servers 
• Hire researchers to help with collecting data for various cities. These people would also help with forecast verification. Forecasts will be verified with NOW Data, and Weather Warehouse data for the USA. Both NOW and the Weather Warehouse archive data from the National Weather Service (NWS).
• Reimburse some of my personal costs - my logo, time, web video, domain, legal research, new laptop ($600).
• Advertise / convince people to participate and stay on the site.
• Produce custom, big data research.

If I don't reach my goal fully, the website will become less sophisticated, but there are other approaches. One approach would be Survey Monkey. Even with less money it would be possible to buy "survey takers" from Survey Monkey, and then use their insights to generate forecasts.

 

Why Should I Contribute?

Contributing to this project puts you on your way to seeing how people from vastly different backgrounds think seasonal weather will play out in your backyard. If you think the weatherman on TV making long-range forecasts is an idiot, you also have a way to prove that you're right, or that he is wrong. I certainly can't stop you from entering in predictions from your TV weatherman to see how they verify...you can be the curmudgeon here!

More generally, by contributing to this campaign, you are helping me undergo a grand experiment that should yield some interesting results:

• Can a crowd produce an accurate seasonal weather forecast?
• Can the crowd match or beat individual expert forecasters?
• We can answer these questions with user interest and ongoing participation.
• Overtime, the results may become good enough to save lives and dollars.
• There are a hand full of brilliant long range forecasters out there now - Joe Bastardi, Dave Tolleris, Joe D'Aleo - but they are aging. One of the benefits of contributing to this campaign would be to help discover the next wave of brilliant long-range forecasters.

One of the reasons I want web development help is to collect basic user information. We can collect and analyze this information in all sorts of ways.

Do men make better forecasters? How about older people? In our snow experiment, the older folks in the office won the individual months each time, but I, at the age of 27, had the closest seasonal call. Do people living in the area they are forecasting predict differently than people outside the area? 

 

I am curious to see if studying the weather actually makes you a good forecaster. We could ask people to rate their knowledge of the weather when they sign up and then see if the people who rated themselves highly actually forecast well.

 

Risks & Challenges

There are many challenges to this project. One is interest. This campaign is designed not just to raise money, but to see if interest in this project exists on a large enough scale. For forecasts to be possible, users will need to continue to bet their fake currency over time, which means...we need users.

I am hoping the possibility of being known as the best forecaster for something like snowfall outlooks, will keep users interested. I would like to offer some kind of prize, beyond additional fake currency for the winners, but this gets a little bit tricky legally. Still researching how to do this.

To promote interest, I will reach out to various weather forums, weather forecasters with many twitter followers, and use Fiverr favors for promotion. 

 

In the future, I will also ask users what types of forecasting they would like to see. 

• Will Florida get hit by a hurricane this year? 
• Will sea ice reach record lows?
• Is there really a Maunder Minimum coming? 
• Perhaps we could even look at global warming issues. Anything verifiable would be doable with user interest.

One possible final way to keep users interested would be to allow proven users to post forecasts of their choice. The users would be able to sell their forecasts, and keep most of the money (Raindance would keep some of it too.)

 

I used to work for a video game website, we were never super-popular, but we had steady, reliable users, so I believe once a base of users is established, the site could become quite useful and interesting. 

Other Ways You Can Help

If you can't contribute financially, please pitch the site.

• If you are in a sports league - pitch this idea there. This is essentially fantasy weather.
• Use the Indiegogo share tools.
• Promote this campaign with Facebook, Twitter, Linkedin, Pinterest, Etsy, Tumblr, Snapchat, Kik, Email, Texts, Conversation, whatever it takes - it all helps!

Thanks everybody!

That’s actually a really cool and creative idea. Credit to him for coming up with it, but I do see a flaw in the key principle from a data science perspective and potentially a business one as well. An amateur like myself will always have a major limitation, lack of background knowledge of meteorology. I suppose you can teach yourself meteorology, it seems like Raindance did that to some extent. But someone who has been doing it their whole lives and is in the field, they know what to look for, they still will know far more than we amateurs do. 
Domain knowledge is tremendously helpful in helping identify what variables would potentially have the highest correlation coefficient with important quantifiable things like temp, precip amount, precip type, etc. Really the best forecasts could be made if he hired and teamed up with a meteorologist to make this app.

If I were him I would have hired a meteorologist to clue him in on what to look for, so he can further optimize his models and increase the predictive power. Then just make that your product and sell it, get a bag. Forget the fantasy football thing, if he combined his skills with a meteorologist, used that domain knowledge from them to optimize and boost the predictive power of models, that would make his predictions way better and easier to market. I mean, you could prove its validity instantly by backtesting on previous years. There is so much potential here. All it takes is not being so fucking arrogant that you think you possibly know more about a field you casually read up on. You think you are just gonna read a few peer reviewed papers and know more than experts in the field and have been doing it their entire lives? I don’t buy it. Not a chance in hell. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

That’s actually a really cool and creative idea. Credit to him for coming up with it, but I do see a flaw in the key principle from a data science perspective and potentially a business one as well. An amateur like myself will always have a major limitation, lack of background knowledge of meteorology. I suppose you can teach yourself meteorology, it seems like Raindance did that to some extent. But someone who has been doing it their whole lives and is in the field, they know what to look for, they still will know far more than we amateurs do. 
Domain knowledge is tremendously helpful in helping identify what variables would potentially have the highest correlation coefficient with important quantifiable things like temp, precip amount, precip type, etc. Really the best forecasts could be made if he hired and teamed up with a meteorologist to make this app.

If I were him I would have hired a meteorologist to clue him in on what to look for, so he can further optimize his models and increase the predictive power. Then just make that your product and sell it, get a bag. Forget the fantasy football thing, if he combined his skills with a meteorologist, used that domain knowledge from them to optimize and boost the predictive power of models, that would make his predictions way better and easier to market. I mean, you could prove its validity instantly by backtesting on previous years. There is so much potential here. All it takes is not being so fucking arrogant that you think you possibly know more about a field you casually read up on. You think you are just gonna read a few peer reviewed papers and know more than experts in the field and have been doing it their entire lives? I don’t buy it. Not a chance in hell. 

Tremendously bright guy, but he was too abrasive...which is probably why this great idea never launched.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

My final ENSO update...last blog from me until Outlook release roughly 11/11.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/10/weakening-trend-of-enso-guidance.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

I really don't agree that a pro is automatically a better seasonal forecaster. I think the best are those that allocate the most time to it. ..which includes a lot of amateurs. Its not really something you can learn in a text book...seasonal forecasting is a unique skill that represents the nexus of science and art. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I wonder if models missed this MJO wave.. they trended significantly more -PNA in the last few days 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Remember guys, these are the colors associated with the northern lights

[40/70 Benchmark]

BTW, I know some in here are expecting the updated AS MEI to spike way up because of how powerful of a La Nina regime we have been in this year, but I don't think that is the case. Its not La Nina doing that...its the west PAC warm pool mimicking a potent La Nina, but the AS MEI is probably going to come in at like -0.9 due to the SOI.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

BTW, I know some in here are expecting the updated AS MEI to spike way up because of how powerful of a La Nina regime we have been in this year, but I don't think that is the case. Its not La Nina doing that...its the west PAC warm pool mimicking a potent La Nina, but the AS MEI is probably going to come in at like -0.9 due to the SOI.

The atmosphere is acting very La Nina-like for the next 2 weeks. 

[Terpeast]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I wonder if models missed this MJO wave.. they trended significantly more -PNA in the last few days 

The Euro had it this strong a while ago, and the gefs had it much weaker. Seems the gefs “caved” and the mjo 5-6 wave is going strong. It seems to be around 2 in amplitude now, and going even higher in the short term.

[donsutherland1]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You thought accusing me of plagiarizing his work was fair dialogue??

The false claim was reprehensible. He had no idea how much effort you put into your work and was way out of line.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The atmosphere is acting very La Nina-like for the next 2 weeks. 

Sure, but it also was last year at times during an El Nino and has been for the better part of 9 years.

[GaWx]

 The Oct 1-18 WCS version of the PDO is averaging ~0.2 lower than its Sept PDO, which was ~-2.55 vs NOAA’s -3.54. Depending on how Oct 19-31 ends up, Oct of 2024 will have a chance to break the -3.65 NOAA record low (set in both April 1859 and July 1950).
 
 More significantly, Jan-Oct of 2024 is headed for ~-2.57  which would be a new record low that barely beat’s 1894’s -2.55. Even more impressive is that April-Oct of 2024 is headed toward ~-3.03, easily the lowest April-Oct on record currently held by 1894’s -2.67 followed by 1950’s -2.66 and 2024’s -2.60.

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat