2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

We defenitely need to see what the ACE does, though before resigning ourselves to another full-on catastrophe. 1988 was a normal ACE year and we should top that, but lets see how it plays out. 2007 was also near normal, but 1998 was very active....181.7

[snowman19]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Makes sense to me. How do you feel about 2007 as an analog? Obviously I don't expect quite that much snow in NNE, but I could see that type of pattern qualitatively speaking. QBO will be a poor match, but that wasn't a blocky season, anyway. I think we all agree there shouldn't be much blocking next season.

When does NNE not have a decent snow season? Lol Anyway, 07-08 may not be bad, still a long way to go. I’m not making a final judgement until November. That said, I have a very strong suspicion like you do that the AO and NAO aren’t going to cooperate nor do I believe that the PNA is going to either

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

When does NNE not have a decent snow season? Lol Anyway, 07-08 may not be bad, still a long way to go. I’m not making a final judgement until November. That said, I have a very strong suspicion like you do that the AO and NAO aren’t going to cooperate nor do I believe that the PNA is going to either

They have had some awful years by their standards...I mean, if you are going to judge it my Maryland climo, then never.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I really don't see much of a path to a nice season south of New England (save for one rogue, large event), assuming we are right about the NAO/PDO.....New England, especially north of the CT/RI borders, can sneak by if there is a ton of cold in se Canada and the PV is positioned correctly.

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I really don't see much of a path to a nice season south of New England (save for one rogue, large event), assuming we are right about the NAO/PDO.....New England, especially north of the CT/RI borders, can sneak by if there is a ton of cold in se Canada and the PV is positioned correctly.

Agree. A -PDO/Nina along with +NAO/+AO = SE ridge on roids, especially with the +AMO tendency the last several years to amplify the SE ridge. If there’s no -NAO to “tame” it, then it’s going to run amok

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Agree. A -PDO/Nina along with +NAO/+AO = SE ridge on roids, especially with the +AMO tendency the last several years to amplify the SE ridge. If there’s no -NAO to “tame” it, then it’s going to run amok

I take no joy in saying this, but I agree with this assessment. 

[snowman19]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Some models have warmed on this month’s runs while some others have cooled. The May UKMET for Aug/Sep rose substantially from April’s ~-1.35 to -1.00 for Nino 3.4. The implied RONI would be a good bit cooler. UKMET and JMA did very well last year. Regardless, several models had either a significant jump or drop this month, telling me there’s still a long ways to go before ONI/RONI can be accurately predicted.

Besides the robust RONI, it looks like there’s not going to be a disconnect with the MEI like there was last year. This time around, the PDO is going to cooperate (negative) with ENSO, as is the PMM (negative). The PMM and PDO were the main reasons for the MEI disconnect last year. Also, the models continue to back off the +IOD they had been projecting….This leads me to believe that a strong La Niña has a very good chance of developing and that the models correct stronger with this event as we go forward

[brooklynwx99]

1988-89, 1995-96, 1998-99, 2005-06, 2010-11, 2019-20, and 2020-21 are all fine analogs for now IMO. no real way to know which are better than others at this point given that we don't even know how the Nina is going to evolve at this point

for the record, I am not expecting a good winter for the East. however, the two things that can help are a bit of Nino lag (helped in 95-96 and 2010-11 most notably) and high ACE, both of which likely have some kind of impact. we can just as easily see another dud, which is safer to expect

the rubber band does have to snap back at some point... positive regression to the mean is pretty much imminent. would be ironic if we do see one of the good Nina winters in a year where people are expecting so little

[mitchnick]

IDK, except for a Nina, exact strength and location TBD, I  think it's too early for any broad, brush forecasts as chaos is a biatch. But if you're going strictly on persistence, warmer east than west and a -PDO of some sort would be as far as one could reasonably go at this point imho.

[roardog]

Looking at the overall picture right now, you would certainly have to favor above normal temps next winter in the east, especially south of New England. However, as I've said a million times, I still think there is a huge overreaction to the recent -PDO/mild eastern winters. What are we on about a 6 year stretch of -PDO now? That's hardly unheard of. Also, the '72-'73 super Nino had a -PDO, so that has happened before too. I highly doubt this is some kind of permanent change. We will see another +PDO winter, probably sometime later this decade. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

IDK, except for a Nina, exact strength and location TBD, I  think it's too early for any broad, brush forecasts as chaos is a biatch. But if you're going strictly on persistence, warmer east than west and a -PDO of some sort would be as far as one could reasonably go at this point imho.

 I’ll add to a likely robust Niña (especially on a RONI basis) a robust -PDO, SE ridge, and W PAC marine heatwave a -NAO being highly unlikely. Only 13% of winters since 1979-80 have had a -NAO and they were all when the avg DJF sunspot number was <35. All 6 -NAO winters occurred within a couple of years of a solar cycle minimum. Interestingly, all 4 cycle minimums had either 1 or 2 -NAO winters within two years. Coincidence?? Regardless, AGW/CC may be the main reason for a big drop in winter -NAO frequency though I’ve yet to see proof of that. I suppose that may be hard to actually prove.

 As often is the case, any possible major SSWs would be a wildcard with unpredictable consequences for a portion of winter.

 Also, someone like @roardog , who’s N of Detroit, or someone in, say, Chicago, would have better potential per climo in a robust Niña vs those of us on E coast. And my being near SE coast places me among the least favored by La Niña/SE ridge/-PDO etc. But regardless, I still enjoy winter the most of any season (obviously nothing to do with snow, which is usually nonexistent here in any one winter). A warm winter here is still cooler than a cool fall/spring and with lower dewpoints.

 La Niña climo:

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

1988-89, 1995-96, 1998-99, 2005-06, 2010-11, 2019-20, and 2020-21 are all fine analogs for now IMO. no real way to know which are better than others at this point given that we don't even know how the Nina is going to evolve at this point

for the record, I am not expecting a good winter for the East. however, the two things that can help are a bit of Nino lag (helped in 95-96 and 2010-11 most notably) and high ACE, both of which likely have some kind of impact. we can just as easily see another dud, which is safer to expect

the rubber band does have to snap back at some point... positive regression to the mean is pretty much imminent. would be ironic if we do see one of the good Nina winters in a year where people are expecting so little

I expected 2020-21 to be horrible going into it so that’s a good point. 10-11 was the second best season I’ve lived through after 95-96. But we lucked out with blocking at the right times, we’ve seen the SE ridge be so insane that it links up with the NAO block now. Obviously that would be a disaster. But Nina isn’t a game over by itself from PHL north. 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I expected 2020-21 to be horrible going into it so that’s a good point. 10-11 was the second best season I’ve lived through after 95-96. But we lucked out with blocking at the right times, we’ve seen the SE ridge be so insane that it links up with the NAO block now. Obviously that would be a disaster. But Nina isn’t a game over by itself from PHL north. 

For those who don’t realize it, 2020-1, 2010-1, and 1995-6 were all near solar cycle minimums and they had -NAOs averaged out over DJF.

[snowman19]

Just now, GaWx said:

For those who don’t realize it, 2020-1, 2010-1, and 1995-6 were all near solar cycle minimums and they had -NAOs averaged out over DJF.

They were also all low geomag

[FPizz]

45 minutes ago, GaWx said:

For those who don’t realize it, 2020-1, 2010-1, and 1995-6 were all near solar cycle minimums and they had -NAOs averaged out over DJF.

So you you put that much weight into the solar cycles for seasonal forecasting?  @raindancewx do you use solar, and if so how much weight do you put into it for your forecast?  You're forecasts are usually very good.

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

So you you put that much weight into the solar cycles for seasonal forecasting?  @raindancewx do you use solar, and if so how much weight do you put into it for your forecast?  You're forecasts are usually very good.

 No, I actually normally don’t put too much weight into solar cycles for seasonal forecasting. But I discovered during my research of -NAO winters since 1980 (the period during which the frequency of -NAO winters has sharply declined) that they all were when sunspots averaged under 35. So, I have to wonder whether or not in recent decades being near a solar minimum has been a significant independent factor for a -NAO winter vs it just being a coincidence.

[FPizz]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 No, I actually normally don’t put too much weight into solar cycles for seasonal forecasting. But I discovered during my research of -NAO winters since 1980 (the period during which the frequency of -NAO winters has sharply declined) that they all were when sunspots averaged under 35. So, I have to wonder whether or not in recent decades being near a solar minimum has been a significant independent factor for a -NAO winter vs it just being a coincidence.

So that is only for Winter?  Have you done other seasons too?  

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, FPizz said:

So that is only for Winter?  Have you done other seasons too?  

Yes. Yes I have. Fall, spring and summer have not had the same decline in NAOs. Summer has actually had a notable increase since 2007.

[FPizz]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Yes. Yes I have. Fall, spring and summer have not had the same decline in NAOs. Summer has actually had a notable increase since 2007.

Interesting, it has seemed that way without looking at the charts.  Thanks for answering.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Models have a strong -PNA for the next 15 days, and it's kicking into gear just as the La Nina surfaces (on schedule if not slightly ahead). This is something to watch as we progress through the Summer as last year we did not see +pna with El Nino and that carried into Winter. 

[so_whats_happening]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Besides the robust RONI, it looks like there’s not going to be a disconnect with the MEI like there was last year. This time around, the PDO is going to cooperate (negative) with ENSO, as is the PMM (negative). The PMM and PDO were the main reasons for the MEI disconnect last year. Also, the models continue to back off the +IOD they had been projecting….This leads me to believe that a strong La Niña has a very good chance of developing and that the models correct stronger with this event as we go forward

I wish we could continue to monitor MEI data but in February they discontinued updating the data. Hopefully we can see that change coming up here with the push for a new data set instead of using JMA data?

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

6 hours ago, roardog said:

Looking at the overall picture right now, you would certainly have to favor above normal temps next winter in the east, especially south of New England. However, as I've said a million times, I still think there is a huge overreaction to the recent -PDO/mild eastern winters. What are we on about a 6 year stretch of -PDO now? That's hardly unheard of. Also, the '72-'73 super Nino had a -PDO, so that has happened before too. I highly doubt this is some kind of permanent change. We will see another +PDO winter, probably sometime later this decade. 

If we didn't have the robust 2 year nino of 14-16 we would largely be in an extended -PDO pattern from about 99 onward.

Ill look to start adding some updates with real time stuff as we get into June, have had a really busy schedule the last 2 months that has not been conducive for much of anything. Luckily not a whole lot has changed overall.

 

[so_whats_happening]

Finally starting to take a nice Nina look especially with decent upwelling along the Peruvian coastline.

Limited to only 30 day animation due to max file size. Here has been the global 500mb look for the last 3 months. Really decent -NAO pattern to end the season and you can see why waters south of the Aleutians have warmed quite a bit. One interesting note is the cooling along the equator in the Atlantic right now. We largely did not see this during the strong/super Nino and typically you get something that counter balances between the two basins.

 

[raindancewx]

We should hit 90F here in a few days. That's a bit early, but close to the long-term average. Not really a cold/warm signal like in some of the recent La Nina emerging years, when Albuquerque hit 90F around May 5 or as late as June 5.

I use solar activity the way I include all variables. I match on 7-10 factors that have occurred in the past that have predictive power in winter. I try to get the blend to match within 5% of what is supposed to happen. Not the individual years necessarily.

One thing I've been testing recently is if there are any timing tendencies from solar conditions. It does seem like there is some tendency for which part of the country has front loaded or back loaded winters by solar trajectory (rising / waning sunspots). 

I do think we're likely to see the WPO go negative for at least some portion of the cold season this year, which would allow for at least some major cold shots in the East with any kind of meaningful NAO block. -WPO is actually a really strong cold signal for the US in the Plains in the Fall. Might be necessary just to knock that part of the US back into annual variation norms given how warm the past winter was.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

1988-89, 1995-96, 1998-99, 2005-06, 2010-11, 2019-20, and 2020-21 are all fine analogs for now IMO. no real way to know which are better than others at this point given that we don't even know how the Nina is going to evolve at this point

for the record, I am not expecting a good winter for the East. however, the two things that can help are a bit of Nino lag (helped in 95-96 and 2010-11 most notably) and high ACE, both of which likely have some kind of impact. we can just as easily see another dud, which is safer to expect

the rubber band does have to snap back at some point... positive regression to the mean is pretty much imminent. would be ironic if we do see one of the good Nina winters in a year where people are expecting so little

Yea, puff-puff pass on the '95-'96 analog.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I do think we're likely to see the WPO go negative for at least some portion of the cold season this year, which would allow for at least some major cold shots in the East with any kind of meaningful NAO block. -WPO is actually a really strong cold signal for the US in the Plains in the Fall. Might be necessary just to knock that part of the US back into annual variation norms given how warm the past winter was.

The PDO has a high EPO/WPO correlation, and if we see an Aleutian island High all Summer, it will be very difficult to get a -EPO/-WPO in the Winter. I do agree that we are kind of due for it, but the stronger trend is the strengthening Aleutian island ridge (-PNA) over the last few years. It may be that times we had +pna last Winter, we will be -pna next Winter, but I'm not sure on when a -EPO would set up.. they usually run only in 8-14 day cycles, vs PNA/NAO, which run 10-45 days. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

If we didn't have the robust 2 year nino of 14-16 we would largely be in an extended -PDO pattern from about 99 onward.

The global warming trend was always thought to be +PDO/El Nino.. some people have linked this recent -PDO with it, but I don't think that makes much sense. 

https://ibb.co/ZKLGRPC

I always thought low solar was the reason.. it should be interesting to see where ENSO goes after this event.. 

[George001]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, puff-puff pass on the '95-'96 analog.

I’m not a fan of that analog because I think the strength is incorrect. 2007-2008 could be a good analog. +NAO, strong La Niña, -PDO.

[so_whats_happening]

We still have some pretty intense westerly winds in the Indian ocean.

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I wish we could continue to monitor MEI data but in February they discontinued updating the data. Hopefully we can see that change coming up here with the push for a new data set instead of using JMA data?

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

If we didn't have the robust 2 year nino of 14-16 we would largely be in an extended -PDO pattern from about 99 onward.

Ill look to start adding some updates with real time stuff as we get into June, have had a really busy schedule the last 2 months that has not been conducive for much of anything. Luckily not a whole lot has changed overall.

 

I strongly suspect this event’s ONI synchs with the MEI and RONI this time around and is very well coupled. -PDO/-PMM/La Niña. Also, the models continue to get weaker and weaker with the +IOD this summer and have it neutral by fall. I think this trend continues and we go -IOD this fall into winter, which fits normal La Niña climo. Given this, very good chance this Niña reaches strong status IMO. Models show this event migrating west rather quickly into a “Modoki” configuration by winter. The +AMO shows no sign of letting up and just continues to get more impressive, which I believe is a by product of AGW
 

I also think we need to keep an eye on the 2 recent volcanic eruptions which not only made it into the stratosphere but also reached a cumulative VEI 5. These were classic tropical volcanic eruptions that injected sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere and it may have a significant impact on this winter’s NAM/AO state along with the +QBO and high solar flux

[PhiEaglesfan712]

On 5/15/2024 at 6:54 AM, snowman19 said:

Given the already relentless background Niña state in the PAC (strong -PDO), and I strongly suspect a -IOD develops this fall into winter, if this Niña reaches 88-89 or 73-74 strength, this winter will definitely be in very, very serious trouble IMO. The 88-89 winter was wall to wall ++AO/++NAO

I think the 3-month head start helped in getting the 1988-89 La Nina that strong. If we applied the 1988 (-3 months) ONI values to 2024, things get interesting:

JJA 1987: +1.6 -> SON 2023: +1.6

JAS 1987: +1.7 -> OND 2023: +1.7

ASO 1987: +1.8 -> NDJ 2023-24: +1.8

SON 1987: +1.7 -> DJF 2023-24: +1.7

OND 1987: +1.4 -> JFM 2024: +1.5 (NOAA)

NDJ 1987-88: +1.1 -> FMA 2024: +1.1 (NOAA)

DJF 1987-88: +0.7 -> MAM 2024?

JFM 1988: +0.3 -> AMJ 2024?

FMA 1988: 0.0 -> MJJ 2024?

MAM 1988: -0.5 -> JJA 2024?

AMJ 1988: -1.0 -> JAS 2024?

MJJ 1988: -1.4 -> ASO 2024?

JJA 1988: -1.5 -> SON 2024?

JAS 1988: -1.4 -> OND 2024?

ASO 1988: -1.5 -> NDJ 2024-25?

SON 1988: -1.7 -> DJF 2024-25?

The ONI got down to -2.1 in OND 1988 and NDJ 1989. I can't see that trend continuing to JFM and FMA, as the la nina should have peaked by then. I think we get a strong la nina that peaks in the -1.5 to -1.7 range in winter.