2024-2025 La Nina

[qg_omega]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Fits the current PAC SSTs to a tee

[FPizz]

14 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Fits the current PAC SSTs to a tee

It "could" also be totally wrong for winter.  His post means absolutely nothing.  It isn't a forecast or anything, its a snapshot with the word "could."  He "should" have some balls and make an actual call.  But if you ask him, he will block you

[snowman19]

November definitely looks like it’s going to be a warmer and drier than normal month

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

It "could" also be totally wrong for winter.  His post means absolutely nothing.  It isn't a forecast or anything, its a snapshot with the word "could."  He "should" have some balls and make an actual call.  But if you ask him, he will block you

November has no correlation with winter. Idk how many times that has to be said, or how many times it has to be proven. Of course, Noll is simply a warm JB type. They post for one reason only. But kudos to you for replying to qqomega, since he already replied to himself.

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

November has no correlation with winter. Idk how many times that has to be said, or how many times it has to be proven. Of course, Noll is simply a warm JB type. They post for one reason only. But kudos to you for replying to qqomega, since he already replied to himself.

But

-ironically JB often says “the weather in November the winter will remember”.

-JB keeps hinting at cold in November but so far I see no sign of it

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

Thanks for posting this. In case there’s any confusion, here are some quotes from this:

the Sun has reached its solar maximum period, which could continue for the next year.

“This announcement doesn’t mean that this is the peak of solar activity we’ll see this solar cycle,” said Elsayed Talaat, director of space weather operations at NOAA. “While the Sun has reached the solar maximum period, the month that solar activity peaks on the Sun will not be identified for months or years.”

Scientists will not be able to determine the exact peak of this solar maximum period for many months because it’s only identifiable after they’ve tracked a consistent decline in solar activity after that peak. 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Fits the current PAC SSTs to a tee

If guidance showed a huge eastern trough you would say that would guarantee an eastern ridge for winter 

The warminista trolls have zero nuance. They are JB but for warmth. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

But

-ironically JB often says “the weather in November the winter will remember”.

-JB keeps hinting at cold in November but so far I see no sign of it

I always remember him saying it was December. And if you think back, all the great winters had a decent December. 15/16 an exception due to a season's worth of snow+ with 1 storm for many.

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I always remember him saying it was December. And if you think back, all the great winters had a decent December. 15/16 an exception due to a season's worth of snow+ with 1 storm for many.

With all due respect: if JB said that, he likely misquoted it. Besides, Dec is already in winter:

“There’s an old saying I’ve heard over the years: ‘what happens in November, the winter will remember!’”   from this link:

https://whnt.com/weather/valleywx-blog/will-winter-remember-november/amp/

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

But

-ironically JB often says “the weather in November the winter will remember”.

-JB keeps hinting at cold in November but so far I see no sign of it

JB is a clown lol. Just because I like cold and snow...don't think I take an ounce of what he says seriously. 

The irony is that in recent years the winter has not followed November at all. But again, overall there's no definitive trend either way. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

If guidance showed a huge eastern trough you would say that would guarantee an eastern ridge for winter 

The warminista trolls have zero nuance. They are JB but for warmth. 

100%. JB is an absolute joke, but there are several here who are the warm version of him. 

[bluewave]

The correlations can work out for November to the winter provided the November events are extreme enough. The record South Carolina snow to start November 2014 was a good early sign of the cold 2014-2015 winter in the East. The record warmth in November 2015 and 2001 were early signals for the record winter warmth which was to follow. 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

With all due respect: if JB said that, he likely misquoted it. Besides, Dec is already in winter:

“There’s an old saying I’ve heard over the years: ‘what happens in November, the winter will remember!’”   from this link:

https://whnt.com/weather/valleywx-blog/will-winter-remember-november/amp/

He's probably said both depending on his forecast and actual wx. Lol

[George001]

I have seen (I believe it was Eric Fisher who posted this graph) graphs showing that there is a decent correlation between November temps and seasonal snowfall in Boston (I suspect this is related to the November pattern persisting into December and potentially early Jan). Personally, I do believe it matters. There are exceptions to every rule and it’s not a death sentence for winter if November is warm, but I would rather have a cold November than a warm one. It’s October temps that don’t have much correlation one way or another. It would be a bad sign if the long range guidance for November ends up being correct, but fortunately for winter enthusiasts long range guidance is extremely unreliable. 

[George001]

The MJO often is a big driver, especially at higher amplitudes. Over the next couple weeks, the MJO is expected to pass through phases 4-6 which is warm for the east. It is unclear how long the MJO will remain in those phases, whether it goes into the COD or into 7,8 and then 1, what the amplitude is, etc. Just way too many unknowns right now and that is just with the MJO.

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, qg_omega said:

I suspect that this winter will see more variability than the last two. December might actually do well for snowfall in the Great Lakes region with a storm track that cuts toward and east of the Lakes. Some La Niña events have seen healthy snowfall from Chicago to Toronto in December. The long range modeling (but lowest skill at the timeframes concerned) seems to hint at more opportunities for cold outbreaks and snowfall in the CONUS/southern Canada during February into March. I think the big question right now concerns the degree of blocking that will develop. That really can't be forecast reliably at long timeframes (even AO+/NAO+ winters can still have one or two good episodes of blocking and if the blocking is timed with an active jet, opportunities for snowfall can exist).

For now, I still think the Great Lakes region will see near normal to somewhat above normal snowfall (around 45" in Detroit), even as temperatures are somewhat warmer than normal. The same applies for Chicago and Toronto. The Mid-Atlantic and New England regions will probably be below normal with snowfall (lower precipitation even as the winter isn't as warm as the last two), but not as bad as the last two winters. Boston will probably end its record slump where it hasn't received 4" or more daily snowfall (964 consecutive days through today). The Northern Plains/Northern Rockies probably have the best chance  in the CONUS of being colder than normal. Western Canada could be cold especially as the PDO- is likely to persist.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My DM H5 and temp composites are done...now comes the time consuming task of writing it up and figuring out the seasonal progression. Should be out second week of Novie, as usual.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The last 4 runs of GFS ensembles at 384hr (0.75 pattern correlation) have showed a decent +EPO for the 1st day of November. If we were to see a predominantly -EPO this Winter, this is when history says it would usually start to show itself. But the opposite is occurring, with at least the 1st week of November looking probably warm. 

Natural Gas has also gone down a lot in the last few days with the NG/CL-Gasoline spread the 2nd lowest on record, behind only last year at this time. 

[so_whats_happening]

TAO finally brought back online the eastern portions of the subsurface (not sure for how long) you can see just how much of a difference this makes in the overall look. Much more inline now with the CPC look although the most upper portions of eastern Nino 3 are a bit off between the two.

BTW some things are finally starting to be updated from NCEI. One in particular that went wild with this last update, PDO. Ill just leave the link below and folks can take a look at it when they get the chance.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

TAO finally brought back online the eastern portions of the subsurface (not sure for how long) you can see just how much of a difference this makes in the overall look. Much more inline now with the CPC look although the most upper portions of eastern Nino 3 are a bit off between the two.

BTW some things are finally starting to be updated from NCEI. One in particular that went wild with this last update, PDO. Ill just leave the link below and folks can take a look at it when they get the chance.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

Unless I missed others, the -3.54 of Sept is the 2nd lowest PDO since 1854 with only 7/1950’s -3.65 lower! There’s a strong correlation between a very strongly -PDO in Sep (-1.5-) and a strongly -PDO in winter (-1.0-) during La Niña with exceptions being:

- 1892-3: Sep -2.5 vs DJF of -0.8

- 1924-5: Sep -1.7 vs DJF of -0.6

- 1933-4: Sep -3.0 vs DJF of -0.3

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Now a deep +EPO for early November on the 00z GEFS. Could be way above average if it verifies, +epo's are the warmest pattern. 

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

Unless I missed others, the -3.54 of Sept is the 2nd lowest PDO since 1854 with only 7/1950’s -3.65 lower! There’s a strong correlation between a very strongly -PDO in Sep (-1.5-) and a strongly -PDO in winter (-1.0-) during La Niña with exceptions being:

- 1892-3: Sep -2.5 vs DJF of -0.8

- 1924-5: Sep -1.7 vs DJF of -0.6

- 1933-4: Sep -3.0 vs DJF of -0.3

 

April of 1859 and July of 1950 both tied at -3.65 if my eyes have not deceived me. This is the most negative block of PDO years we have seen since the early 1950's. If we continue on this path of -2.5 and below we could end the year as the most negative average PDO year on the ERSST records.

As for your second point yea having the PDO this low late into the year typically means we have a continuation even if there ends up being a relaxation of the PDO values as we close out the year.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Pacific 500mb pattern should finish out October something like 0.90 correlation to the historical -PDO composite. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Was there any resistance to the notion of a -PDO this winter? I'm not trying to be an ass....I'm honestly am not sure what can be gleaned from this because everyone was already resigned to it.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

April of 1859 and July of 1950 both tied at -3.65 if my eyes have not deceived me. This is the most negative block of PDO years we have seen since the early 1950's. If we continue on this path of -2.5 and below we could end the year as the most negative average PDO year on the ERSST records.

As for your second point yea having the PDO this low late into the year typically means we have a continuation even if there ends up being a relaxation of the PDO values as we close out the year.

The main difference now is how much warmer the North Pacific is with this -PDO compared to around 1950. So this -PDO is the first to be defined more by continuing marine heatwaves. This is one of the reasons these record Aleutian Ridge patterns are persisting so much longer.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The main difference now is how much warmer the North Pacific is with this -PDO compared to around 1950. So this -PDO is the first to be defined more by continuing marine heatwaves. This is one of the reasons these record Aleutian Ridge patterns are persisting so much longer.

 

 

This is why the PDO is near record negative territory despite the warmth off of the California coast, which is traditonally indicative of a +PDO. Its becoming increasingly important for forecasters to assume a wholistic approach in global analysis because the unprecedented degree of warmth around the planet is limiting how much can be gleaned from focusing on any single node or geographical area. Whereas in the past we focused on areas of warmth in our assessment of the anticipated pattern it has now becoming apparent that relativity is of the utmost importance since the planet is a sea of warmth. This is the flawed lens through which I viewed ENSO last season. I focused on the orientation of SSTs within the ENSO region when there was larger pool of greater warmth to the west. The warmth off of the CA coast this year represents a similar trap with respect to the PDO.

[snowman19]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Was there any resistance to the notion of a -PDO this winter? I'm not trying to be an ass....I'm honestly am not sure what can be gleaned from this because everyone was already resigned to it.

The only one I saw who suggested that the PDO might flip positive was JB back in the spring and early summer when he was having his 14-15 analog for this winter orgies

[PhiEaglesfan712]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Was there any resistance to the notion of a -PDO this winter? I'm not trying to be an ass....I'm honestly am not sure what can be gleaned from this because everyone was already resigned to it.

I think most reasonable people knew this was going to be a -PDO winter, and likely a record -PDO. The only ones that thought otherwise were probably the CanSIPS and the people pushing 2013-14 as a good analog. 

I could tell early on that 2013-14 wasn't going to be a good analog. In 2013, the PDO was (generally) heading towards neutral. This year, the PDO has only gotten deeper into the negative. Maybe 2013-14 could be a good analog for 2025-26, but definitely not this winter.

2013 -1.10 -1.42 -1.48 -0.72 -0.40 -1.19 -1.34 -1.56 -1.00 -1.65 -1.09 -1.04

2024 -1.55 -1.33 -1.52 -2.12 -2.99 -3.16 -2.99 -2.91 -3.54

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think most reasonable people knew this was going to be a -PDO winter, and likely a record -PDO. The only ones that thought otherwise were probably the CanSIPS and the people pushing 2013-14 as a good analog. 

I could tell early on that 2013-14 wasn't going to be a good analog. In 2013, the PDO was (generally) heading towards neutral. This year, the PDO has only gotten deeper into the negative. Maybe 2013-14 could be a good analog for 2025-26, but definitely not this winter.

2013 -1.10 -1.42 -1.48 -0.72 -0.40 -1.19 -1.34 -1.56 -1.00 -1.65 -1.09 -1.04

2024 -1.55 -1.33 -1.52 -2.12 -2.99 -3.16 -2.99 -2.91 -3.54

Once September started, we left 2013 in the dust. The pattern hasn’t even been remotely close to that fall since

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The only one I saw who suggested that the PDO might flip positive was JB back in the spring and early summer when he was having his 14-15 analog for this winter orgies

 

15 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think most reasonable people knew this was going to be a -PDO winter, and likely a record -PDO. The only ones that thought otherwise were probably the CanSIPS and the people pushing 2013-14 as a good analog. 

I could tell early on that 2013-14 wasn't going to be a good analog. In 2013, the PDO was (generally) heading towards neutral. This year, the PDO has only gotten deeper into the negative. Maybe 2013-14 could be a good analog for 2025-26, but definitely not this winter.

2013 -1.10 -1.42 -1.48 -0.72 -0.40 -1.19 -1.34 -1.56 -1.00 -1.65 -1.09 -1.04

2024 -1.55 -1.33 -1.52 -2.12 -2.99 -3.16 -2.99 -2.91 -3.54

Yep.