2024-2025 La Nina

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It makes perfect sense if you understand that the ranking is done by the temperature and not the year. So multiple years can share the same temperature. It makes no sense to leave a gap in the ranks just because a tie occurs. 
 

Ties in scores are handled by giving the tied rows the same rank, and the next rank is then incremented without any gaps.

I’m with bluewave here. I’ve been using SQL for 12+ years, including window functions. It makes more sense to non-technical audiences to portray data like this (I made these values up):

Year | Avg Temp | Rank
2022  53.6  1st
2003  53.4  2nd
2016  53.0  3rd Tie
1977  53.0  3rd Tie
2005  52.9 4th

Than this:

2022  53.6  1st
2003  53.4  2nd
2016  53.0  3rd Tie
1977  53.0  3rd Tie
2005  52.9 5th (note there is no 4th place)

[michsnowfreak]

31 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’m with bluewave here. I’ve been using SQL for 12+ years, including window functions. It makes more sense to non-technical audiences to portray data like this (I made these values up):

Year | Avg Temp | Rank
2022  53.6  1st
2003  53.4  2nd
2016  53.0  3rd Tie
1977  53.0  3rd Tie
2005  52.9 4th

Than this:

2022  53.6  1st
2003  53.4  2nd
2016  53.0  3rd Tie
1977  53.0  3rd Tie
2005  52.9 5th (note there is no 4th place)

I understand, I just don't agree with it personally. Always been big into stats so that's just the way I've always ranked them.

[BuffaloWeather]

Looking good for lake effect locations, hints at -epo?

[George001]

13 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think most reasonable people are in agreement that this upcoming winter will be 2 warm months and one cool one, with January being one of the warm months.

Accuweather is calling for a warmer than average winter with below average snowfall. February will be the best month for snow chances, but there could also be some storms in early December: https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/winter-forecast-for-the-us-in-the-2024-25-season/1699821

I would go 2 warm and 2 cool, Dec-Jan BN and Feb-Mar AN. I would not forecast below normal temps though unless the signal for a cold/snowy winter was extreme like it was going into the 2014-2015 winter. I don’t think it’s bad luck or anything that we had 9 AN winters in a row, it’s climate change.

This more than just me bitching about how horrible it’s been since the super Nino, even the good winters we had were AN temp wise. 2017-2018 is considered to be a severe winter with periods of extreme cold and snow by many, and it really was. It was downright frigid during that Dec-mid Jan stretch. March was an all out snow blitz, I got so much snow during that month that a big tree collapsed under the weight of the snow and had to be removed.

yet, even the severe 2017-2018 winter averaged AN temps simply due to the extreme magnitude of the warm periods when the pattern became unfavorable in Feb. What may have been +3 or +4 anomalies decades ago are now +7 to +8, and you see extreme shit like 70+ degrees in Feb. So even in an “average” up and down type of winter with a couple AN months and a couple BN months (where I’m expecting this winter to be), you are looking at AN temps simply due to the magnitude of the warmth when the pattern is unfavorable exceeding the magnitude of the cold when things get favorable. So despite me being more optimistic than most about this winter, I still am going with AN temps. Especially with how warm the ocean temps are (which could amplify SE ridging), 1 month of MJO camping in phases 4-6 can undo 2 months of BN anomalies. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Everyone was matching up 2013 in the Summer, but here is how it matches up now.

What we have is fitting -PDO for October pretty nicely. 

[snowman19]

 

[snowman19]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

The last two Euros at least have had no BN anomalies in Canada or in any of N America on the latest one for that matter for DJF as a whole. The runs are pretty strongly suggesting AN dominating at least the E half of Canada. I haven’t seen the month by month breakdown but the Euro has a much stronger warm signal than the CFS.

Copernicus C3S FWIW:

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Copernicus C3S FWIW:

 

 

 

 

Wait, I  thought Canada was supposed to be a sauna...!

[snowman19]

34 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Wait, I  thought Canada was supposed to be a sauna...!

Again, seasonal model, FWIW. That said, Canada can be way above normal at their latitude from Dec-Mar and still snow

[bluewave]

AO volatility continues with one of the strongest October AO near 5 SD reversals following the recent very strong forcing near India.

[mitchnick]

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Again, seasonal model, FWIW. That said, Canada can be way above normal at their latitude from Dec-Mar and still snow

I know that. It's called being facetious. Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark Very good call on this being a CP La Niña months ago. You never bought into this being an EP event at any point in time
 

Nor on the idea that La Nina would fail to develop...still think a healthy weak to bordering on moderate event per ONI is in the offing. This post is from July.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/07/enso-proving-deceptive-once-again.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

ENSO has always been a strong point for me. My weaker point had been the polar domain, but I have improved a lot with respect to that in recent years. My current stuggles are adjusting to climate change and being too reliant on analogs that are archaic, relatively speaking. I will try to improve on that this season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Everyone was matching up 2013 in the Summer, but here is how it matches up now.

What we have is fitting -PDO for October pretty nicely. 

I was never crazy about that analog, but I can see giving it a shout out due to how well it matches the summer pattern.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Is anyone else not suprised by the fact that @raindancewxwent dormant and decatived his X account the moment he thought the east may finally have a decent winter?

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was never crazy about that analog, but I can see giving it a shout out due to how well it matches the summer pattern.

Ever since met fall started, we have deviated 180 degrees from that year

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Ever since met fall started, we have deviated 180 degrees from that year

Thankfully in terms of getting the forecast right, but unfortunate from the perspective of a NE winter ethusiast.

What is said today is that forecasters on social media do everything in their power to mainiupulate the truth and avoid accountability for forecasting errors....but its the ultimate irony because what people really respect is transparency and a willingness to use errors as a vehicle for the self-reflection and critical thinking that drives growth and improvement. Karma is a b*tch.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

AO volatility continues with one of the strongest October AO near 5 SD reversals following the recent very strong forcing near India.

I wouldn't mind that during the winter assuming warmth is not prohibitive (theoretical, not a forecast) because I would rather have volatility with large storms, then a consistent cold with nickle and dime events.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Wait, I  thought Canada was supposed to be a sauna...!

I can buy the US getting another shitty winter, but I have never been on board with Canada being a furnace again...which menas the north will have a chance for some fun periods.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looking good for lake effect locations, hints at -epo?

Man, I would take that map and run....I would do naked cartwheels across Antartica for normal snowfall at this point.

[rclab]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, I would take that map and run....I would do naked carwheels across Antartica for normal snowfall at this point.

Please, 40/7O, just snow angels. Also stay well dressed. The activity could be a gender changer. Stay well, as always…..

 

[GaWx]

 There’s still no ONI/RONI update for JAS. I’m assuming this is related to the Asheville data outage.

[snowman19]

ENSO has always been a strong point for me. My weaker point had been the polar domain, but I have improved a lot with respect to that in recent years. My current stuggles are adjusting to climate change and being too reliant on analogs that are archaic, relatively speaking. I will try to improve on that this season.

Speaking of the polar domain, this is just ridiculous. Arctic sea ice. Even if someone is an AGW skeptic, they have to acknowledge that something we’ve never seen before is happening over the last 10 years:

[PhiEaglesfan712]

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 There’s still no ONI/RONI update for JAS. I’m assuming this is related to the Asheville data outage.

At this point, I don't think we're getting an update until 11/4 or 11/5. I think JAS and ASO will be released at the same time. If we still don't get an update, I might just ask Eric Webb if he can update the Ensemble ONI. If I can just get a JAS/ASO number from either source, then I'll have a good feel on where the ENSO state will be during Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25.

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

At this point, I don't think we're getting an update until 11/4 or 11/5. I think JAS and ASO will be released at the same time. If we still don't get an update, I might just ask Eric Webb if he can update the Ensemble ONI. If I can just get a JAS/ASO number from either source, then I'll have a good feel on where the ENSO state will be during Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25.

Yea, I don't get why they can't just tweet out the updated value.

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Again, seasonal model, FWIW. That said, Canada can be way above normal at their latitude from Dec-Mar and still snow

Yeah, Canada hasn’t had a colder than average winter since 2014 by their 1961-1990 reference period. Their last top 10 coldest winter was back in 1994 when we had all the record cold in the East and very impressive snowfall. But in general the warmest winters are El Niño. They set the record by a wide margin last winter. The 20-21 winter was their 5 warmest overall and 16-17 was 8th warmest. So some recent La Ninas have also been very warm by Canadian standards. 

https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/eccc/documents/csv/climate-trends-variations/winter2024/Winter_2024_regional_temp_table_e.csv

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/climate-trends-variability/trends-variations/winter-2024-bulletin.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, Canada hasn’t had a colder than average winter since 2014 by their 1961-1990 reference period. Their last top 10 coldest winter was back in 1994 when we had all the record cold in the East and very impressive snowfall. But in general the warmest winters are El Niño. They set the record by a wide margin last winter. The 20-21 winter was their 5 warmest overall and 16-17 was 8th warmest. So some recent La Ninas have also been very warm by Canadian standards. 

https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/eccc/documents/csv/climate-trends-variations/winter2024/Winter_2024_regional_temp_table_e.csv

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/climate-trends-variability/trends-variations/winter-2024-bulletin.html

I think it should be clear that when I say that I don't expect a furnace in Canda, its relative to our contemporary climate...not that is going to necessarily be "cold" relative to 1961-1990 standard...that may never be done again.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it should be clear that when I say that I don't expect a furnace in Canda, its relative to our contemporary climate...not that is going to necessarily be "cold" relative to 1961-1990 standard...that may never be done again.

I don’t think it was a coincidence that 2018 was the last top 10 coldest fall in Canada and Rockford, IL broke their all-time coldest  temperature at -31 in late January. Granted the record cold that month was shorter lived and of a smaller aerial coverage than past Midwest Arctic outbreaks from the 1980s, but the cold in Canada during the fall gives us some hints ahead of time.It’s been a similar pattern for the Northeast with the strongest Arctic outbreaks over the last decade going to our west with the stronger WAR Southeast Ridge.

https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/eccc/documents/csv/climate-trends-variations/autumn2023/Autumn_2023_regional_temp_table_e.csv

 

https://www.weather.gov/lot/RecordColdJan2019

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

ENSO has always been a strong point for me. My weaker point had been the polar domain, but I have improved a lot with respect to that in recent years. My current stuggles are adjusting to climate change and being too reliant on analogs that are archaic, relatively speaking. I will try to improve on that this season.

Can you consider using a different word instead of "archaic?" I remember all those years as if they were yesterday. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Can you consider using a different word instead of "archaic?" I remember all those years as if they were yesterday. 

My use of the word archiac is more of a reflection of how fast the climate has been changging as opposed to how much time has passed since some of these analog years.