snowman19 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 15 hours ago, GaWx said: The last two Euros at least have had no BN anomalies in Canada or in any of N America on the latest one for that matter for DJF as a whole. The runs are pretty strongly suggesting AN dominating at least the E half of Canada. I haven’t seen the month by month breakdown but the Euro has a much stronger warm signal than the CFS. Copernicus C3S FWIW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 26 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Copernicus C3S FWIW: Wait, I thought Canada was supposed to be a sauna...! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 34 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Wait, I thought Canada was supposed to be a sauna...! Again, seasonal model, FWIW. That said, Canada can be way above normal at their latitude from Dec-Mar and still snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 AO volatility continues with one of the strongest October AO near 5 SD reversals following the recent very strong forcing near India. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 34 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Again, seasonal model, FWIW. That said, Canada can be way above normal at their latitude from Dec-Mar and still snow I know that. It's called being facetious. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 20 hours ago, snowman19 said: @40/70 Benchmark Very good call on this being a CP La Niña months ago. You never bought into this being an EP event at any point in time Nor on the idea that La Nina would fail to develop...still think a healthy weak to bordering on moderate event per ONI is in the offing. This post is from July. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/07/enso-proving-deceptive-once-again.html 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 ENSO has always been a strong point for me. My weaker point had been the polar domain, but I have improved a lot with respect to that in recent years. My current stuggles are adjusting to climate change and being too reliant on analogs that are archaic, relatively speaking. I will try to improve on that this season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Everyone was matching up 2013 in the Summer, but here is how it matches up now. What we have is fitting -PDO for October pretty nicely. I was never crazy about that analog, but I can see giving it a shout out due to how well it matches the summer pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 Is anyone else not suprised by the fact that @raindancewxwent dormant and decatived his X account the moment he thought the east may finally have a decent winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was never crazy about that analog, but I can see giving it a shout out due to how well it matches the summer pattern. Ever since met fall started, we have deviated 180 degrees from that year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Ever since met fall started, we have deviated 180 degrees from that year Thankfully in terms of getting the forecast right, but unfortunate from the perspective of a NE winter ethusiast. What is said today is that forecasters on social media do everything in their power to mainiupulate the truth and avoid accountability for forecasting errors....but its the ultimate irony because what people really respect is transparency and a willingness to use errors as a vehicle for the self-reflection and critical thinking that drives growth and improvement. Karma is a b*tch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 2 hours ago, bluewave said: AO volatility continues with one of the strongest October AO near 5 SD reversals following the recent very strong forcing near India. I wouldn't mind that during the winter assuming warmth is not prohibitive (theoretical, not a forecast) because I would rather have volatility with large storms, then a consistent cold with nickle and dime events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Wait, I thought Canada was supposed to be a sauna...! I can buy the US getting another shitty winter, but I have never been on board with Canada being a furnace again...which menas the north will have a chance for some fun periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 15 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looking good for lake effect locations, hints at -epo? Man, I would take that map and run....I would do naked cartwheels across Antartica for normal snowfall at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, I would take that map and run....I would do naked carwheels across Antartica for normal snowfall at this point. Please, 40/7O, just snow angels. Also stay well dressed. The activity could be a gender changer. Stay well, as always….. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 There’s still no ONI/RONI update for JAS. I’m assuming this is related to the Asheville data outage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 ENSO has always been a strong point for me. My weaker point had been the polar domain, but I have improved a lot with respect to that in recent years. My current stuggles are adjusting to climate change and being too reliant on analogs that are archaic, relatively speaking. I will try to improve on that this season.Speaking of the polar domain, this is just ridiculous. Arctic sea ice. Even if someone is an AGW skeptic, they have to acknowledge that something we’ve never seen before is happening over the last 10 years: 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 22 minutes ago, GaWx said: There’s still no ONI/RONI update for JAS. I’m assuming this is related to the Asheville data outage. At this point, I don't think we're getting an update until 11/4 or 11/5. I think JAS and ASO will be released at the same time. If we still don't get an update, I might just ask Eric Webb if he can update the Ensemble ONI. If I can just get a JAS/ASO number from either source, then I'll have a good feel on where the ENSO state will be during Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 38 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: At this point, I don't think we're getting an update until 11/4 or 11/5. I think JAS and ASO will be released at the same time. If we still don't get an update, I might just ask Eric Webb if he can update the Ensemble ONI. If I can just get a JAS/ASO number from either source, then I'll have a good feel on where the ENSO state will be during Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25. Yea, I don't get why they can't just tweet out the updated value. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: Again, seasonal model, FWIW. That said, Canada can be way above normal at their latitude from Dec-Mar and still snow Yeah, Canada hasn’t had a colder than average winter since 2014 by their 1961-1990 reference period. Their last top 10 coldest winter was back in 1994 when we had all the record cold in the East and very impressive snowfall. But in general the warmest winters are El Niño. They set the record by a wide margin last winter. The 20-21 winter was their 5 warmest overall and 16-17 was 8th warmest. So some recent La Ninas have also been very warm by Canadian standards. https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/eccc/documents/csv/climate-trends-variations/winter2024/Winter_2024_regional_temp_table_e.csv https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/climate-trends-variability/trends-variations/winter-2024-bulletin.html 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, Canada hasn’t had a colder than average winter since 2014 by their 1961-1990 reference period. Their last top 10 coldest winter was back in 1994 when we had all the record cold in the East and very impressive snowfall. But in general the warmest winters are El Niño. They set the record by a wide margin last winter. The 20-21 winter was their 5 warmest overall and 16-17 was 8th warmest. So some recent La Ninas have also been very warm by Canadian standards. https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/eccc/documents/csv/climate-trends-variations/winter2024/Winter_2024_regional_temp_table_e.csv https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/climate-trends-variability/trends-variations/winter-2024-bulletin.html I think it should be clear that when I say that I don't expect a furnace in Canda, its relative to our contemporary climate...not that is going to necessarily be "cold" relative to 1961-1990 standard...that may never be done again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think it should be clear that when I say that I don't expect a furnace in Canda, its relative to our contemporary climate...not that is going to necessarily be "cold" relative to 1961-1990 standard...that may never be done again. I don’t think it was a coincidence that 2018 was the last top 10 coldest fall in Canada and Rockford, IL broke their all-time coldest temperature at -31 in late January. Granted the record cold that month was shorter lived and of a smaller aerial coverage than past Midwest Arctic outbreaks from the 1980s, but the cold in Canada during the fall gives us some hints ahead of time.It’s been a similar pattern for the Northeast with the strongest Arctic outbreaks over the last decade going to our west with the stronger WAR Southeast Ridge. https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/eccc/documents/csv/climate-trends-variations/autumn2023/Autumn_2023_regional_temp_table_e.csv https://www.weather.gov/lot/RecordColdJan2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: ENSO has always been a strong point for me. My weaker point had been the polar domain, but I have improved a lot with respect to that in recent years. My current stuggles are adjusting to climate change and being too reliant on analogs that are archaic, relatively speaking. I will try to improve on that this season. Can you consider using a different word instead of "archaic?" I remember all those years as if they were yesterday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 30 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Can you consider using a different word instead of "archaic?" I remember all those years as if they were yesterday. My use of the word archiac is more of a reflection of how fast the climate has been changging as opposed to how much time has passed since some of these analog years. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 What I really like about the PDO in October, is how it correlates with an independent pattern. As you can see by January, PDO is associated with PNA conditions. the 500mb pattern probably is associated with similar waters over this time. But in October, an independent correlation appears I think I mentioned this in August, and sure enough with the -PDO record breaking and holding a very strong pattern correlation over the last 4 years, a strong Gulf of Alaska trough has transpired this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 8 hours ago, snowman19 said: [monthly subsurface] I'm not sure why you're posting September TAO/Triton subsurface.. the subsurface has since neutralized, with no regions greater than +1c. CPC is still showing cold subsurface waters though. I don't know which one is more accurate. I will say that we probably don't see an official La Nina with 5 consecutive months < -0.5. That would give us only our 2nd ENSO Neutral year in that last 11, if I'm right. Of course, other things like the MEI and RONI are showing La Nina, and they have higher pattern correlations. But I wonder how much those things are associated with the PDO? PDO at -3 right now is nothing to overlook, given how strong of an indicator it has been over the last 4-30 years. This October is fitting the -PDO H5 about as closely as you are ever going to see. I would love to separate this and ENSO, to see if my ENSO subsurface theory still holds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was never crazy about that analog, but I can see giving it a shout out due to how well it matches the summer pattern. 2013 started a 2-3 year regime shift in the Fall. I thought it wasn't worth considering unless we saw something similar this Fall, which would have been difficult with a -3 pdo. The +NAO this year, now coming up on its 9th bout in the medium-range could signify the coming of a global phase shift though. We'll have to see how that goes next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I'm not sure why you're posting September TAO/Triton subsurface.. the subsurface has since neutralized, with no regions greater than +1c. CPC is still showing cold subsurface waters though. I don't know which one is more accurate. I will say that we probably don't see an official La Nina with 5 consecutive months < -0.5. That would give us only our 2nd ENSO Neutral year in that last 11, if I'm right. Of course, other things like the MEI and RONI are showing La Nina, and they have higher pattern correlations. But I wonder how much those things are associated with the PDO? PDO at -3 right now is nothing to overlook, given how strong of an indicator it has been over the last 4-30 years. This October is fitting the -PDO H5 about as closely as you are ever going to see. I would love to separate this and ENSO, to see if my ENSO subsurface theory still holds up. Because I copied the wrong link. My mistake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 2013 started a 2-3 year regime shift in the Fall. I thought it wasn't worth considering unless we saw something similar this Fall, which would have been difficult with a -3 pdo. The +NAO this year, now coming up on its 9th bout in the medium-range could signify the coming of a global phase shift though. We'll have to see how that goes next year. Why? Hasn't +NAO been the rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now