2024-2025 La Nina

[snowman19]

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Don. So, the Oct fcast for DJF is clearly the warmest of these going back to 2021-2. The +1 to +2 in the current one covers nearly all of the US, which is larger coverage than all of these. Note also that none had anything >2. I wonder if that is due to a cold bias. Note also that E Canada is warmer than 2021-2 and 2022-3 although it is less warm than 2023-4.

 So for the E US:

-2021-2 ended up too warm, especially Midwest/Lakes

-2022-3 ended up not warm enough especially NE

-2023-4 ended up not warm enough Midwest/NE

Hopefully, it doesn't have a cold bias. February is probably the best month for the East (largely driven by the ECMWF input). December-January are quite warm.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Hopefully, it doesn't have a cold bias. February is probably the best month for the East (largely driven by the ECMWF input). December-January are quite warm.

This is what I see happening as well. I think there will be a snow event during the first half of December, followed by a snow lull until the end of January. The bulk of the cold and snow will be the first 3 weeks of February.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I highly doubt we add 40 ACE towards the end of the year. However, if we do, we could finish with a Top 10 ACE year. (NOTE: Data averages Wunderground & NOAA values for years 2016 and before, NOAA values only for 2017 and later)

1            2005      247.65

2            1933      235.785

3            1893      231.0738

4            1995      227.5513

5            1950      227.1413

6            2004      226.94

7            1926      225.7788

8            2017      224.8775           

9            1961      196.95

10          1998      181.8838

11          2020      180.3725

12          1955      178.585

Yea, tall task...agree.

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This is what I see happening as well. I think there will be a snow event during the first half of December, followed by a snow lull until the end of January. The bulk of the cold and snow will be the first 3 weeks of February.

One dividing line between the good Nina winters here and the bad ones is whether we can get a snow event in December. In Dec 2020 NYC had a 10” snowstorm, in 2010 there was the Boxing Day blizzard, 2017-18 just missed December but had the big 1/4/18 storm. 2000-01 had the Millennium 12”+ storm and ended up above average with more snow in Feb. 3/5/01 would’ve annihilated us with some better luck. In 17-18 and 20-21 as well we then had a Part 2 later in the winter with more snow to get us over average. 10-11 was of course a blitz of many storms until end of January. I rate 21-22 as a lousier one for NYC even though the late Jan storm could’ve been a crusher back to NYC with a tiny shift to a consolidated coastal storm vs the multiple low mess it ended up as. The lousy Nina winters flop in Dec and tend to stay that way. 07-08 set the tone early with the crap sleet pellet to rain SWFEs, Dec 2022 flopped as we all know, 1998-99 had nothing in Dec and was a below average snow winter etc. 

[GaWx]

44 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

One dividing line between the good Nina winters here and the bad ones is whether we can get a snow event in December. In Dec 2020 NYC had a 10” snowstorm, in 2010 there was the Boxing Day blizzard, 2017-18 just missed December but had the big 1/4/18 storm. 2000-01 had the Millennium 12”+ storm and ended up above average with more snow in Feb. 3/5/01 would’ve annihilated us with some better luck. In 17-18 and 20-21 as well we then had a Part 2 later in the winter with more snow to get us over average. 10-11 was of course a blitz of many storms until end of January. I rate 21-22 as a lousier one for NYC even though the late Jan storm could’ve been a crusher back to NYC with a tiny shift to a consolidated coastal storm vs the multiple low mess it ended up as. The lousy Nina winters flop in Dec and tend to stay that way. 07-08 set the tone early with the crap sleet pellet to rain SWFEs, Dec 2022 flopped as we all know, 1998-99 had nothing in Dec and was a below average snow winter etc. 

For the last ~30 winters: Dec a good barometer for rest of season at NYC during La Nina

- Dec 3” or under (6 seasons), rest of season averaged 10.6” (range 2.3”-17.7”). Note, however, that 16-17 was only barely above 3” (at 3.2”) and the rest of the season had 27”.

- For >3” in Dec (8 seasons), rest of season averaged almost 3 times as much, 30.1” (range 21.6”-64.1”)!

- So, the high end of the Dec 3” or less rest of season range (17.7”) is actually lower than the low end of the rest of season range (21.6”) for Dec greater than 3” seasons during La Niña!

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

07-08 set the tone early with the crap sleet pellet to rain SWFEs, Dec 2022 flopped as we all know, 1998-99 had nothing in Dec and was a below average snow winter etc. 

Even then, those years weren't a total loss in December. 07-08 had the early snow event on Dec 5, and had a negative temperature departure. Dec 2022 also had a negative temperature departure. 98-99, while a very warm December, famously had that miracle snow event 2 days before Christmas (2 days earlier we had record high temperatures in the 60s). We had a few good snows until mid-January, and then a lull until the end of February, and one last hurrah in early-to-mid March. 98-99, while a below average snow season, still had its moments.

I see 07-08 as the worst case scenario for 24-25, and 20-21 the best case scenario. Most likely, we might something in the middle, like a 98-99 or 16-17.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

17 hours ago, bluewave said:

Volatility continues to be the big NAO story as we are going to see a near record NAO reversal heading into mid-October.

 

Definitely getting +NAO again, X amount of time after northern lights. This 2024 +NAO is definitely a new pattern in the mix.. I thought late Sept/early Oct -NAO was predictable because it has had opposite correlations with the rest of the year, and seems to also be slightly related to -pdo.  Made a post here in August I think.. 

[snowman19]

Models getting more aggressive with the trade wind bursts in region 3.4. We are probably solidly into a weak CP Niña by the end of this month. Also, the -IOD and -PMM appear to be gaining strength

 

[mitchnick]

Updated JMA extended links with the caveat that it did poorly last year with putting a trough in the east.

Monthly thru January:

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

Dec-Feb average:

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php

Short version is that it's not too different with temp anomalies than other seasonal modeling:

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, jm1220 said:

One dividing line between the good Nina winters here and the bad ones is whether we can get a snow event in December. In Dec 2020 NYC had a 10” snowstorm, in 2010 there was the Boxing Day blizzard, 2017-18 just missed December but had the big 1/4/18 storm. 2000-01 had the Millennium 12”+ storm and ended up above average with more snow in Feb. 3/5/01 would’ve annihilated us with some better luck. In 17-18 and 20-21 as well we then had a Part 2 later in the winter with more snow to get us over average. 10-11 was of course a blitz of many storms until end of January. I rate 21-22 as a lousier one for NYC even though the late Jan storm could’ve been a crusher back to NYC with a tiny shift to a consolidated coastal storm vs the multiple low mess it ended up as. The lousy Nina winters flop in Dec and tend to stay that way. 07-08 set the tone early with the crap sleet pellet to rain SWFEs, Dec 2022 flopped as we all know, 1998-99 had nothing in Dec and was a below average snow winter etc. 

The huge Thanksgiving Day torch set the tone for the 07-08 winter. It was by far one of the worst winters for snow in the NYC metro area in the last 30 years. Ranks right up there with 97-98, 01-02, 11-12, 19-20 and 22-23…..

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The huge Thanksgiving Day torch set the tone for the 07-08 winter. It was by far one of the worst winters for snow in the NYC metro area in the last 30 years. Ranks right up there with 97-98, 01-02, 11-12, 19-20 and 22-23…..

I would give my left nut for a redux of 2007-2008.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Even then, those years weren't a total loss in December. 07-08 had the early snow event on Dec 5, and had a negative temperature departure. Dec 2022 also had a negative temperature departure. 98-99, while a very warm December, famously had that miracle snow event 2 days before Christmas (2 days earlier we had record high temperatures in the 60s). We had a few good snows until mid-January, and then a lull until the end of February, and one last hurrah in early-to-mid March. 98-99, while a below average snow season, still had its moments.

I see 07-08 as the worst case scenario for 24-25, and 20-21 the best case scenario. Most likely, we might something in the middle, like a 98-99 or 16-17.

98-99 is definitely the worst option for SNE.

[George001]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The huge Thanksgiving Day torch set the tone for the 07-08 winter. It was by far one of the worst winters for snow in the NYC metro area in the last 30 years. Ranks right up there with 97-98, 01-02, 11-12, 19-20 and 22-23…..

07-08 was a great winter in New England especially for ski areas. It was decent for SNE too, then sharp cut off south. I would consider that to be a successful winter.

[George001]

12 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Even then, those years weren't a total loss in December. 07-08 had the early snow event on Dec 5, and had a negative temperature departure. Dec 2022 also had a negative temperature departure. 98-99, while a very warm December, famously had that miracle snow event 2 days before Christmas (2 days earlier we had record high temperatures in the 60s). We had a few good snows until mid-January, and then a lull until the end of February, and one last hurrah in early-to-mid March. 98-99, while a below average snow season, still had its moments.

I see 07-08 as the worst case scenario for 24-25, and 20-21 the best case scenario. Most likely, we might something in the middle, like a 98-99 or 16-17.

I would prefer 07-08 to 20-21. 07-08 was honestly straight up better than 20-21 for my area, it was snowier and a bit colder. 20-21 the best snows were south and west of SNE. My range for best and worst case scenarios is wider. Best case for my area I would say 2010-2011 redux, worst case 2022-2023 redux. I don’t think either of these scenarios is particularly likely, it would be foolish to forecast such an extreme outcome at this point. But that’s the range of outcomes. I’m thinking average to slightly above average snow for my area at this point, nothing too crazy in either direction. 

[jm1220]

7 hours ago, George001 said:

07-08 was a great winter in New England especially for ski areas. It was decent for SNE too, then sharp cut off south. I would consider that to be a successful winter.

Nina in general is significantly better the further north you go. I'd rather claw my eyes out than go through another 07-08. El Nino is better overall I'd say from I-80 and south.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Nina in general is significantly better the further north you go. I'd rather claw my eyes out than go through another 07-08. El Nino is better overall I'd say from I-80 and south.

Absolutely. Madison to Chicago to Detroit corridor had 60-100" of snow in the non-lake-snowbelt areas in 2007-08. I went to the upper peninsula in Mar 2008 (pic below) and the snow depths were insane. Meanwhile didn't nyc struggle to get 10"? In El ninos on the other hand somehow let the good storms go south despite it being a mild winter.

[jm1220]

36 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Absolutely. Madison to Chicago to Detroit corridor had 60-100" of snow in the non-lake-snowbelt areas in 2007-08. I went to the upper peninsula in Mar 2008 (pic below) and the snow depths were insane. Meanwhile didn't nyc struggle to get 10"? In El ninos on the other hand somehow let the good storms go south despite it being a mild winter.

07-08 was a series of lake cutter storms with a high over Quebec/Canada that locked enough cold in for New England to have big front end snow or have the low redevelop south enough to keep them snow. NYC was too far south and either rained in all of them or had brief sleet to rain, over and over again. I lived in PA at the time and had more sleet than I've ever seen. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The huge Thanksgiving Day torch set the tone for the 07-08 winter. It was by far one of the worst winters for snow in the NYC metro area in the last 30 years. Ranks right up there with 97-98, 01-02, 11-12, 19-20 and 22-23…..

I disagree about the Thanksgiving Day torch setting the tone. If that was the case, we would have not had a snow event on December 5, just two weeks later. November and December was the cold period that year. The torch that year happened in September and October.

Thing is, 07-08 wasn't an out of the ordinary warm winter like those other years. December was below average temperaturewise, while January and February were only +2/+3 months. It's weird how the winter was bookended by the December 5 and February 22 snowstorms, with nothing much in between.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I disagree about the Thanksgiving Day torch setting the tone. If that was the case, we would have not had a snow event on December 5, just two weeks later. November and December was the cold period that year. The torch that year happened in September and October.

Thing is, 07-08 wasn't an out of the ordinary warm winter like those other years. December was below average temperaturewise, while January and February were only +2/+3 months. It's weird how the winter was bookended by the December 5 and February 22 snowstorms, with nothing much in between.

2/22/08 was just about the one front ended snow event that did work out for NYC. I think that was half of the season’s snow. The Dec one that clobbered SNE and rained in NYC set the tone for that whole godawful winter. Dec sets the tone for NYC almost every winter especially Nina’s. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I disagree about the Thanksgiving Day torch setting the tone. If that was the case, we would have not had a snow event on December 5, just two weeks later. November and December was the cold period that year. The torch that year happened in September and October.

Thing is, 07-08 wasn't an out of the ordinary warm winter like those other years. December was below average temperaturewise, while January and February were only +2/+3 months. It's weird how the winter was bookended by the December 5 and February 22 snowstorms, with nothing much in between.

Did you actually bother to read my post? I was talking about snow in NYC metro area not temperatures. It was easily one of the worst winters for snow in the last 30 years there

[George001]

Now this is a great example of why a pattern being “good” or “bad” means a completely different thing depending who who’s posting it. 07-08 in particular had an extremely sharp snowfall gradient. We all live in different areas, so we have different perspectives on what constitutes a good vs bad winter. For me, I live in SNE and I ski so I prefer areas farther north to do well too. Good winter for me, record breaking good for ski areas. So I have zero issues with 07-08 and if I could sign a lifetime contract that guaranteed an 07-08 redux every year, I would do it instantly. 

[snowman19]

There has been some suggestion of 13-14 being a good analog….we are now completely and totally different in the North Pacific. It’s not even remotely close. By this time in 2013 it had already tipped its hand into a pseudo +PDO alignment. We are moving further and further away from that year: 

 

Here is the 15 day change, note the strong cooling in the GOA, Bering Sea and the across the eastern part of the Aleutian chain. It makes me very seriously doubt we see a -EPO winter:

[bluewave]

We are getting a very strong October La Niña atmospheric response with  a record 500mb +EPO Alaskan vortex for October producing the winds to 100 mph in Alaska.

 

 

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are getting a very strong October La Niña atmospheric response with  a record 500mb +EPO Alaskan vortex for October producing the winds to 100 mph in Alaska.

Yeah, the MEI is going to be in strong la nina territory for the SO update. I wonder how close we get to the 21-22/22-23 peak.

[purduewx80]

15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Absolutely. Madison to Chicago to Detroit corridor had 60-100" of snow in the non-lake-snowbelt areas in 2007-08. I went to the upper peninsula in Mar 2008 (pic below) and the snow depths were insane. Meanwhile didn't nyc struggle to get 10"? In El ninos on the other hand somehow let the good storms go south despite it being a mild winter.

It was a blast living in Madison back then. I grew up not seeing accumulating snow every winter and had some wild storms while in WI from '05-'13. A lot of '07-'08 was frequent nickel and dimes in an Arctic air mass that covered the giant piles as soon as they started to look dirty. December '08 was also epic. Now I'll most certainly be subjected to my third snowless winter in a row with the beefed-up SER. Would think that we start seeing tornado outbreaks heading into winter and spring somewhere in the Mississippi Valley and/or Gulf states.

 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, the MEI is going to be in strong la nina territory for the SO update. I wonder how close we get to the 21-22/22-23 peak.

It’s really impressive how strong and persistent the Aleutian Ridge had become this year. The ridge keeps driving this record breaking -PDO pattern. 500 mb heights have been at record levels for an extended period.
 

 

 

[qg_omega]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

There has been some suggestion of 13-14 being a good analog….we are now completely and totally different in the North Pacific. It’s not even remotely close. By this time in 2013 it had already tipped its hand into a pseudo +PDO alignment. We are moving further and further away from that year: 

 

Here is the 15 day change, note the strong cooling in the GOA, Bering Sea and the across the eastern part of the Aleutian chain. It makes me very seriously doubt we see a -EPO winter:

That cold south of Alaska is just awful

[brooklynwx99]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

There has been some suggestion of 13-14 being a good analog….we are now completely and totally different in the North Pacific. It’s not even remotely close. By this time in 2013 it had already tipped its hand into a pseudo +PDO alignment. We are moving further and further away from that year: 

 

Here is the 15 day change, note the strong cooling in the GOA, Bering Sea and the across the eastern part of the Aleutian chain. It makes me very seriously doubt we see a -EPO winter:

north Pacific SSTs aren’t the main reason why it’s a useful analog. it’s a pretty good ONI match, similar ENSO SST orientation, and it’s a good solar and QBO match. no analog is perfect… I don’t expect nearly the same amount of persistent AK ridging as that year

[snowman19]

29 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

north Pacific SSTs aren’t the main reason why it’s a useful analog. it’s a pretty good ONI match, similar ENSO SST orientation, and it’s a good solar and QBO match. no analog is perfect… I don’t expect nearly the same amount of persistent AK ridging as that year

IMO the North Pacific pseudo +PDO is what directly lead to the -EPO blocking and +TNH that winter