2024-2025 La Nina

[mitchnick]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Fall temperatures over North America are one of the parameters we look at in judging the amount of cold that could be available in North America during the winter.

Since fall officially starts the end of September, I think it's too early, which was my point for January through March period. I  think your focus is on temps and mine is on snow. I don't care about temps. They don't concern me one iota. All I  want is a season that gives me a few periods of favorable patterns. That's all it has ever been in the Mid Atlantic. The right pattern will generate the right temps just as January did last winter.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Since fall officially starts the end of September, I think it's too early, which was my point for January through March period. I  think your focus is on temps and mine is on snow. I don't care about temps. They don't concern me one iota. All I  want is a season that gives me a few periods of favorable patterns. That's all it has ever been in the Mid Atlantic. The right pattern will generate the right temps just as January did last winter.

The record September warmth has continued into October for North America. My focus is on temps and snowfall. When the fall temps in Canada and the U.S. are skewed very warm or cold it has historically continued over into winter in some manner. Sometimes more localized regional hints for winter and other times nationally. 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The record September warmth has continued into October for North America. My focus is on temps and snowfall. When the fall temps in Canada and the U.S. are skewed very warm or cold it has historically continued over into winter in some manner. Sometimes more localized regional hints for winter and other times nationally. 

Last year's toaster still yielded almost 20" imby. The reason why I'm optimistic for this winter is that there's nothing on seasonal modeling that indicates there will be a shutout. There will be decent periods. Then it comes down to luck. Those same models are showing the warmth in Canada thru November, while still predicting a season with chances. Unless they all start busting badly on those months, I will remain positive. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

9 hours ago, George001 said:

ACE forecasts for the year? The strength of the low in the gulf increased rapidly across all guidance over the past couple of days. I think 125-150. Probably closer to 125, it would take a really big late season storm to get up to 150. Got there in an unusual way, but average to slightly above average ACE overall. I think the increase in strength for that gulf low killed the possibility of a below average ACE season.

I've said 2016 (15/7/4 with 140 ACE) was probably right around where we were going to end up.

[Terpeast]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The record September warmth has continued into October for North America. My focus is on temps and snowfall. When the fall temps in Canada and the U.S. are skewed very warm or cold it has historically continued over into winter in some manner. Sometimes more localized regional hints for winter and other times nationally. 

FWIW ensembles show a warmer west canada with a near normal to cooler east in the 5-15 day time frame. 

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Last year's toaster still yielded almost 20" imby. The reason why I'm optimistic for this winter is that there's nothing on seasonal modeling that indicates there will be a shutout. There will be decent periods. Then it comes down to luck. Those same models are showing the warmth in Canada thru November, while still predicting a season with chances. Unless they all start busting badly on those months, I will remain positive. 

I’m not as bullish as you, but maybe thats just because of our locations. I’m about 70 miles south of you, which could be the difference between a serviceable winter and a dud. 

I’m just looking for signs of a temporary break from the 22-23/23-24 pattern that resulted in +5-8 degree temp anomalies here. For example, can we get a Jan 2022 or a mid-Jan 2024 “break” that gives us cold and snow as far south as here? I want to say yes, there will be 1-2 periods of this, but all signs point to another very mild winter overall. 

[michsnowfreak]

51 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Since fall officially starts the end of September, I think it's too early, which was my point for January through March period. I  think your focus is on temps and mine is on snow. I don't care about temps. They don't concern me one iota. All I  want is a season that gives me a few periods of favorable patterns. That's all it has ever been in the Mid Atlantic. The right pattern will generate the right temps just as January did last winter.

Thats me. Im more about snow than temps. But Its near unanimous from every model that below avg cold will get into Canada in winter. So I'm not concerned one bit.

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’m not as bullish as you, but maybe thats just because of our locations. I’m about 70 miles south of you, which could be the difference between a serviceable winter and a dud. 

I’m just looking for signs of a temporary break from the 22-23/23-24 pattern that resulted in +5-8 degree temp anomalies here. For example, can we get a Jan 2022 or a mid-Jan 2024 “break” that gives us cold and snow as far south as here? I want to say yes, there will be 1-2 periods of this, but all signs point to another very mild winter overall. 

If I  was back north of BWI, my thoughts would echo yours exactly. Although my move here has only really yielded one really good winter (20/21), the other ones were all much better than BWI, except for 21/22 because I  completely missed Jan 3, 2022. I  still go back down to the Balt area for various matters, and I  just watch my car thermometer rise as I approach BWI and relive the pain of those winters. Lol

Between elevation and being oh soooo close to the nirvanac (new word) 40N, it is a pleasant improvement. Funny thing is, most people around here hate snow as much as they do in Baltimore, so if I  get talking about an impending storm, they think I'm nuts!

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Last year's toaster still yielded almost 20" imby. The reason why I'm optimistic for this winter is that there's nothing on seasonal modeling that indicates there will be a shutout. There will be decent periods. Then it comes down to luck. Those same models are showing the warmth in Canada thru November, while still predicting a season with chances. Unless they all start busting badly on those months, I will remain positive. 

I was happy for PA into NJ  with the event on 2-13 and the narrow snowband on the 2-17 just north of your area. The forcing finally got east of the Dateline for about a week.  But the window was too brief and many other areas weren’t able cash in. 
 

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

No doubt December will be warm for most of the Conus, but I  doubt September temps in and of itself, warm or cold, mean a hill of beans for January to March. The pattern will dictate by then imho.

Assuming you are correct and December is warmer than normal, and yes the models do show that, how many and which La Niña winters had a warmer than normal December then went on to have a cold and snowy January-March? Or at least a cold and snowy February-March? It’s also looking like November may be warmer than normal too based on the progression of the tropical forcing per Paul Roundy:

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Hotair said:

According to this, Milton’s trajectory is so unusual that one has to go all the way back to 1888 to find a similar storm track 

Analog for this winter @raindancewx?

[mitchnick]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Assuming you are correct and December is warmer than normal, and yes the models do show that, how many and which La Niña winters had a warmer than normal December then went on to have a cold and snowy January-March? Or at least a cold and snowy February-March? It’s also looking like November may be warmer than normal too based on the progression of the tropical forcing per Paul Roundy:

 

 

 

 

Eps from now until Mid-November is showing modest warmth in the east. If you switch to Arctic from North America, Canada is part +0-1C and +1-2C by Mid-November. That's not fatal to our winter imho. So Roundy saying/suggesting AN is not something I would worry about with the Eps looking pretty tame with the warmth imho. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-t?base_time=202410050000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202410140000

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps from now until Mid-November is showing modest warmth in the east. If you switch to Arctic from North America, Canada is part +0-1C and +1-2C by Mid-November. That's not fatal to our winter imho. So Roundy saying/suggesting AN is not something I would worry about with the Eps looking pretty tame with the warmth imho. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-t?base_time=202410050000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202410140000

Possible November warmth aside, I’m just curious as to which and how many La Niña’s had a warmer than normal December then went on to have a cold/snowy January-March or February-March. I never actually never looked into that, if you know? If not, maybe @bluewave or @donsutherland1 would? 

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Possible November warmth aside, I’m just curious as to which and how many La Niña’s had a warmer than normal December then went on to have a cold/snowy January-March or February-March. I never actually never looked into that, if you know? If not, maybe @bluewave or @donsutherland1 would? 

Since 1950, there were 12 La Niña events that had warmer than normal Decembers in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Two were colder than normal with near normal to above normal snowfall. Two were also warmer than normal with above normal snowfall. Six were warmer to much warmer than normal with below to much below normal snowfall. January-March 2009 and January-March 1974 had the best combination of cold and snow following a warm December.

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Possible November warmth aside, I’m just curious as to which and how many La Niña’s had a warmer than normal December then went on to have a cold/snowy January-March or February-March. I never actually never looked into that, if you know? If not, maybe @bluewave or @donsutherland1 would? 

I never said I  expect cold/snowy. In fact, I  don't and would be just as surprised as you if we got one. I'm simply talking about a winter that offers potential for favorable periods, which is how it works down here. How much can fall during those periods is TBD by luck of both the exact pattern and storm details. I said a page back, I think, that I'm liking the 1/15-2/25"period for mby.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I never said I  expect cold/snowy. In fact, I  don't and would be just as surprised as you if we got one. I'm simply talking about a winter that offers potential for favorable periods, which is how it works down here. How much can fall during those periods is TBD by luck of both the exact pattern and storm details. I said a page back, I think, that I'm liking the 1/15-2/25"period for mby.

I know you’re not expecting that. I wanted to look into the antecedent conditions data for the ones that did for when I do my winter write up next month

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Since 1950, there were 12 La Niña events that had warmer than normal Decembers in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Two were colder than normal with near normal to above normal snowfall. Two were also warmer than normal with above normal snowfall. Six were warmer to much warmer than normal with below to much below normal snowfall. January-March 2009 and January-March 1974 had the best combination of cold and snow following a warm December.

Only looking at January, I could also make the case that 2021-22 is a recent case of a very warm december followed by a colder and snowier than normal January. Going by KIAD numbers, Dec 2021 was +7.5 and Jan 2022 was -2.5, a swing of -10 in departures. KIAD also got 11” during Jan 2022, with places further south getting even more. 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Only looking at January, I could also make the case that 2021-22 is a recent case of a very warm december followed by a colder and snowier than normal January. Going by KIAD numbers, Dec 2021 was +7.5 and Jan 2022 was -2.5, a swing of -10 in departures. KIAD also got 11” during Jan 2022, with places further south getting even more. 

Yes. I used the whole January-March period.

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Possible November warmth aside, I’m just curious as to which and how many La Niña’s had a warmer than normal December then went on to have a cold/snowy January-March or February-March. I never actually never looked into that, if you know? If not, maybe @bluewave or @donsutherland1 would? 

The one early snowfall indicator which has worked for every La Niña winter in NYC going back to the 95-96 has been the December La Niña snowfall. Years with 3 or more inches December have gone on to above normal seasonal snowfall. Every December with under 3” has had a below average snowfall season. This is why December is so important with La Ninas around NYC.

 

22-23….Dec snow…..T……season….2.3

21-22…..Dec snow….0.2…season…..17.9

20-21…..Dec snow….10.5…season…38.6

17-18……Dec snow….7.7…..season…40.9

16-17…….Dec snow…3.2…..season…30.2

11-12…….Dec snow….0…….season….7.4

10-11…….Dec snow….20.1….season….61.9

08-09…..Dec snow….6.0……season….27.6

07-08…..Dec snow…..2.9…..season….11.9

05-06…..Dec snow…..9.7…….season…40.0

00-01……Dec snow….13.4……season….35.0

99-00…..Dec snow…..T……….season….16.3

98-99…..Dec snow…..2.0……..season….12.7

95-96…..Dec snow…..11.5……..season….75.6

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The one early snowfall indicator which has worked for every La Niña winter in NYC going back to the 95-96 has been the December La Niña snowfall. Years with 3 or more inches December have gone on to above normal seasonal snowfall. Every December with under 3” has had a below average snowfall season. This is why December is so important with La Ninas around NYC.

 

22-23….Dec snow…..T……season….2.3

21-22…..Dec snow….0.2…season…..17.9

20-21…..Dec snow….10.5…season…38.6

17-18……Dec snow….7.7…..season…40.9

16-17…….Dec snow…3.2…..season…30.2

11-12…….Dec snow….0…….season….7.4

10-11…….Dec snow….20.1….season….61.9

08-09…..Dec snow….6.0……season….27.6

07-08…..Dec snow…..2.9…..season….11.9

05-06…..Dec snow…..9.7…….season…40.0

00-01……Dec snow….13.4……season….35.0

99-00…..Dec snow…..T……….season….16.3

98-99…..Dec snow…..2.0……..season….12.7

95-96…..Dec snow…..11.5……..season….75.6

 -So, with Dec 3” or under (6 seasons), rest of season averaged 10.6” (range 2.3”-17.7”). Note, however, that 16-17 was only barely above 3” (at 3.2”) and the rest of the season had 27”.

- For >3” in Dec (8 seasons), rest of season averaged almost 3 times as much, 30.1” (range 21.6”-64.1”)!

- So, the high end of the Dec 3” or less rest of season range (17.7”) is actually lower than the low end of the rest of season range (21.6”) for Dec greater than 3” seasons!

@donsutherland1

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Since 1950, there were 12 La Niña events that had warmer than normal Decembers in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Two were colder than normal with near normal to above normal snowfall. Two were also warmer than normal with above normal snowfall. Six were warmer to much warmer than normal with below to much below normal snowfall. January-March 2009 and January-March 1974 had the best combination of cold and snow following a warm December.

Both solid analogs.

[bluewave]

On 10/4/2024 at 6:00 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

The biggest benefitters have been those south of Buffalo including myself. We probably average 110" a year at my location. But here are my totals since keeping track down here. Averages out to 129.42" a year. I've had 2 75"+ events since 2022 and a once in a century blizzard with almost 60". The same cannot be said for other areas though. Rochester and Syracuse have had record low snowfall totals the last 6-7 yrs due to the lack of cold air and NW flow. All the flows have been WSW/SW with the cutter pattern we've had.

• 2013-14 snowfall: 161.7"            2018-19 snowfall: 122.8”        2023-24 snowfall: 125.1"                       
• 2014-15 snowfall: 212.8"            2019-20 snowfall: 83.3"
• 2015-16 snowfall: 80.1"             2020-21 snowfall: 101.1"
• 2016-17 snowfall: 93.3"             2021-22 snowfall: 105.4"
• 2017-18 snowfall: 152.4"            2022-23 snowfall: 185.6"

Yeah, this cutter pattern has been great for snow lovers in your area with the Great Lakes so warm. 
 

https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2022-12/Great Lakes Fall 2022.pdf

From November 4-6, temperatures were up to 30°F
(17°C) above normal in the east. On November
5th, Toronto, Ontario had its warmest November
day (records began in 1937) when it reached 77°F
(25.1°C). That same day, Buffalo, New York, had its
second warmest November day, with 79°F (26.1°C),
and Syracuse and Rochester, New York, recorded
their warmest low November temperatures at 63°F
(17.2°C) and 62°F (16.7°C), respectively.
Water temperatures in Lakes Huron, Erie, and Ontario were unusually stable (not decreasing) in October, leading to near-
record water warmth by early November. Arctic air moved across the basin mid-month producing massive lake-induced
snowfall.

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this cutter pattern has been great for snow lovers in your area with the Great Lakes so warm. 
 

https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2022-12/Great Lakes Fall 2022.pdf

From November 4-6, temperatures were up to 30°F
(17°C) above normal in the east. On November
5th, Toronto, Ontario had its warmest November
day (records began in 1937) when it reached 77°F
(25.1°C). That same day, Buffalo, New York, had its
second warmest November day, with 79°F (26.1°C),
and Syracuse and Rochester, New York, recorded
their warmest low November temperatures at 63°F
(17.2°C) and 62°F (16.7°C), respectively.
Water temperatures in Lakes Huron, Erie, and Ontario were unusually stable (not decreasing) in October, leading to near-
record water warmth by early November. Arctic air moved across the basin mid-month producing massive lake-induced
snowfall.

 

 

Storm was nuts. We’ve had a few of those last 2 yrs. 

[snowman19]

Obviously subject to change, but looking at the extended, long range on the ensembles, it does appear that we may be headed for a warmer to much warmer than normal pattern as we go into the end of this month, gives support to Roundy’s idea of a warm end to the month going into November….

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Storm was nuts. We’ve had a few of those last 2 yrs. 

Probably the strongest -EPO cutter pattern we have experienced in November.

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

2022 11 14 -145.88
2022 11 15 -312.70
2022 11 16 -417.28
2022 11 17 -401.21
2022 11 18 -331.21
2022 11 19 -227.44

[snowman19]

GEFS, EPS, GEPS still showing the MJO 4-6 pass. Given that, coupled with the increasing -IOD, this should result in a rather healthy EWB/enhanced trades and continued cooling in region 3.4 coming up. SOI up to +15

[PhiEaglesfan712]

On 10/6/2024 at 8:33 AM, mitchnick said:

Since fall officially starts the end of September, I think it's too early, which was my point for January through March period. I  think your focus is on temps and mine is on snow. I don't care about temps. They don't concern me one iota. All I  want is a season that gives me a few periods of favorable patterns. That's all it has ever been in the Mid Atlantic. The right pattern will generate the right temps just as January did last winter.

Although, the September/February temperature correlation has been solid here at PHL since 2006-07. In 17 of the last 18 years, when the September average temperature has been above 71, the following February's average temperature was also above 36, and when the September average temperature was below 71, the following February's temperature was also below 36. The only exception was 2008-09, when September 2008 finished at 70.4 and February 2009 finished at 37.1 (though we did get two 8-inch snowstorms in early February and March 1-2).

September 2024 came in at 70.6, so that's a good omen for a cold and snowy February.

[Terpeast]

The GEFS backed off a bit on mjo 5-6 strength, but most models are converging on a healthy mjo run of decent strength through those phases through the end of this month. 

[mitchnick]

52 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Although, the September/February temperature correlation has been solid here at PHL since 2006-07. In 17 of the last 18 years, when the September average temperature has been above 71, the following February's average temperature was also above 36, and when the September average temperature was below 71, the following February's temperature was also below 36. The only exception was 2008-09, when September 2008 finished at 70.4 and February 2009 finished at 37.1 (though we did get two 8-inch snowstorms in early February and March 1-2).

September 2024 came in at 70.6, so that's a good omen for a cold and snowy February.

For what little it's worth, Cfs2 continues to cool ever so slightly each day for the past couple of weeks. It's probably too aggressive, but seeing it go the "right" way delays the bubble from bursting another day! Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like raindance deleted his x account. Not sure if he is going to be posting his outlook as planned this week.