2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/4/2024 at 8:16 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am of the opinion that this season will behave in a manner that is consistent with La Nina, however, La Nina will not be the primary driver...if that makes sense.

 

31 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The euro definitely has a la nina signature in its mid latitude atmospheric pattern. Just because the equatorial pacific ssts aren’t as cold as you want them to be, it doesn’t mean there won’t be an aleutian ridge as the euro is showing. 

Yes. Absolutely this.

[mitchnick]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t believe for one second that there is no La Niña this winter like the EURO is showing. Hard sell on that one. Every run flip flops on ENSO like a fish out of water

In light of the progged Easterly anomalies upon us now and current SSTA's, it's hard to buy the November spike in SSTA anomalies on this run attached. How that would change other forecasting parameters is anyone's guess. 

[George001]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Same here...2010s were the snowiest decade on record. The 2000s just narrowly miss being the 2nd. The increase in snowfall since the mid 20th century gas been undeniable.

This was exactly my point. The pattern doesn't get enough credit. It's not like cc just popped up out of nowhere 9 years ago...I remember during our incredible run of winters many were quick to point out it doesn't mean cc isn't happening, there's a difference between weather and climate. Well that works both ways. I don't know what the climate will be when I'm long gone, could be a rainforest or an ice age who knows...but i have no worries about MI winters not being winters in my lifetime.

AGW has definitely progressed since then and is accelerating, but this is a good point. Even in the 2014-2015 winter, the large scale picture was a cold pocket right over the eastern U.S. in a sea of warmth. The climate was warmer in 2014-2015 than the early 2000s, and the climate today is warmer than 2014-2015. I do agree that your area is much better off than areas closer to the coast like mine with the changing climate. Close proximity to the rapidly warming Atlantic Ocean gives us less room for error in terms of storm track, and I suspect that has something to do with December climo worsening faster than other months like March locally. December is the winter month with the warmest average ocean temps, so it makes sense that December is closer to a “tipping point” than March here. You have much more room for error in MI, farther away from the ocean and much colder/snowier climo to begin with.

[George001]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t believe for one second that there is no La Niña this winter like the EURO is showing. Hard sell on that one. Every run flip flops on ENSO like a fish out of water

I don’t buy it either. Interestingly, despite the lack of La Niña on the Euro the 500mb is very much a La Nina pattern. Ridging south of Alaska (usually a trough here in Ninos) and some SE ridging. Probably a fairly active northern branch too. The big question is how far south does the northern branch dip? It’s not a bad pattern for my area verbatim, though definitely playing with fire in regards to that SE ridging especially early winter. Mid Atlantic weenies would like to see more North Atlantic blocking, not really seeing that on the Euro. Although I am skeptical of the lack of La Niña on the Euro, 500mb pattern showed makes sense. I suspect it has the right idea to some extent there.

[bluewave]

The Euro 500 mb forecast is nearly identical to the ones it issued for 22-23 and 21-22. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t believe for one second that there is no La Niña this winter like the EURO is showing. Hard sell on that one. Every run flip flops on ENSO like a fish out of water

I don't think it matters.

[michsnowfreak]

Fwiw, the Euro DJF temp departure for the entire northeast and southern Lakes is +1 to +1.5°C, with 0 to + 1°C for the upper midwest. It's cooler than the Sept run, although unrealistically too broadbrushed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

New Euro is a nod to the CFS/CANSIPS camp.....any other portrayal is due to a bias and/or delusion.

[40/70 Benchmark]

 I think something like 2021-2022 maybe okay...but we aren't getting the amplification out west that we did in 2022.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 I think something like 2021-2022 maybe okay...but we aren't getting the amplification out west that we did in 2022.

CFS

[40/70 Benchmark]

That is good consensus on a pretty stout -WPO pattern in the seasonal mean.

[BlizzardWx]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

How many times is the EURO going to show a La Niña then go to cold-neutral/La Nada then back again before this winter starts? Back and forth, back and forth like a schizophrenic. How can you trust it?

That's the thing, I don't! I mean, I do think it probably has the right idea overall (especially over a trimonthly average), but its the details that will make or break a winter and we just can't tell those things yet. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the CANSIPS is probably too far south with the cold, but the CFS seems more realistic...its similar to the EURO...maybe a touch colder.

[mitchnick]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the CANSIPS is probably too far south with the cold, but the CFS seems more realistic...its similar to the EURO...maybe a touch colder.

The 3 long range models agree December will be warm. No argument there from me. Changes start in January, which would likely be on or after the 15th since the change to a more favorable pattern strikes me as gradual over the season. So barring a fluke or pure magic, I would roll the dice and say 1/15-2/25 is the my window for snow imby, peak climo basically. Different story in ENE & NE of course. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

The 3 long range models agree December will be warm. No argument there from me. Changes start in January, which would likely be on or after the 15th since the change to a more favorable pattern strikes me as gradual over the season. So barring a fluke or pure magic, I would roll the dice and say 1/15-2/25 is the my window for snow imby, peak climo basically. Different story in ENE & NE of course. 

Reminds me of 2020-2021 and 2021-2022.....should see amplified phases 4-6 this month to lend confidence.

[snowman19]

After the utter dumpster fire debacle with the long range models last winter, I’m going to watch the real time observations and patterns and make my forecast next month based on those, not what some long range model says is going to happen. The people who blindly followed the models last winter got burned and failed horribly. It was a disaster

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro 500 mb forecast is nearly identical to the ones it issued for 22-23 and 21-22. 
 

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

After the utter dumpster fire debacle with the long range models last winter, I’m going to watch the real time observations and patterns and make my forecast next month based on those, not what some long range model says is going to happen. The people who blindly followed the models last winter got burned and failed horribly. It was a disaster

 

[George001]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

After the utter dumpster fire debacle with the long range models last winter, I’m going to watch the real time observations and patterns and make my forecast next month based on those, not what some long range model says is going to happen. The people who blindly followed the models last winter got burned and failed horribly. It was a disaster

Old school meteorology approach. I like it, what is happening RIGHT NOW in the fall matters. What is the storm track? Is it wet or dry? Last winter I saw articles about flooding out west, areas like Seattle were getting hammered. That really raised my alarms that last winter was going to be a rough one. The parade of storms crashing into the Pacific Northwest continued all winter long which was extremely unfavorable for the east coast. The previous winter had the same thing in the fall and I ignored it, and learned the hard way I shouldn’t have. Often the pattern in the fall is a sign of things to some. Storms barreling into the Pacific Northwest is just bad news. This year we aren’t really seeing that. But it has been fairly dry. You mentioned earlier that this may be a dry winter like 2001-2002, a year mentioned as a decent analog several times in this thread. 

[George001]

ACE forecasts for the year? The strength of the low in the gulf increased rapidly across all guidance over the past couple of days. I think 125-150. Probably closer to 125, it would take a really big late season storm to get up to 150. Got there in an unusual way, but average to slightly above average ACE overall. I think the increase in strength for that gulf low killed the possibility of a below average ACE season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Old school meteorology approach. I like it, what is happening RIGHT NOW in the fall matters. What is the storm track? Is it wet or dry? Last winter I saw articles about flooding out west, areas like Seattle were getting hammered. That really raised my alarms that last winter was going to be a rough one. The parade of storms crashing into the Pacific Northwest continued all winter long which was extremely unfavorable for the east coast. The previous winter had the same thing in the fall and I ignored it, and learned the hard way I shouldn’t have. Often the pattern in the fall is a sign of things to some. Storms barreling into the Pacific Northwest is just bad news. This year we aren’t really seeing that. But it has been fairly dry. You mentioned earlier that this may be a dry winter like 2001-2002, a year mentioned as a decent analog several times in this thread. 

Tougher to get a dry season at the height of +AMO nearly a quarter century further into CC. Anyway, I love the idea of incorporating what is happening, but IMO his bias is showing with the apparent vitriol in dismissing all seasonal guidance.

[snowman19]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tougher to get a dry season at the height of +AMO nearly a quarter century further into CC. Anyway, I love the idea of incorporating what is happening, but IMO his bias is showing with the apparent vitriol in dismissing all seasonal guidance.

Not vitriol at all and I’m not totally dismissing it. The seasonal guidance last winter was beyond awful and I bought into it. The only one who didn’t (Bluewave) ended up being right. I view it with extreme skepticism until proven otherwise now. Remember when the EURO weeklies and monthlies kept showing massive blocking for February and March? It sure fooled me with the Nino in place. They kept insisting on MJO 8-1-2, -NAO/-AO/+PNA/-EPO/-WPO, off to the races, severe cold and KU’s barreling up the coast, run after run after run. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me 

Edit: @40/70 Benchmark My post was about last year, not 21-22 or 22-23

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not vitriol at all and I’m not totally dismissing it. The seasonal guidance last winter was beyond awful and I bought into it. The only one who didn’t (Bluewave) ended up being right. I view it with extreme skepticism until proven otherwise now. Remember when the EURO weeklies and monthlies kept showing massive blocking for February and March? It sure fooled me with the Nino in place. They kept insisting on MJO 8-1-2, -NAO/-AO/+PNA/-EPO/-WPO, off to the races, severe cold and KU’s barreling up the coast, run after run after run

raindance didn't, either. I don't think last year is a good example because the seasonals fell prey to overreliance on ENSO....they modeled an El Niño like pattern that never materialized. In this case, they are modeling a La Niña like pattern that while not epic, would appear to offer wintry interludes that extend a bit further to the south than those of the past few years. 

I wouldn't call those EURO images a massive bust for 2021-2022 and the only reason 2022-2023 didn't work out was due to the extent of the western trough....no seasonal will ever get that right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Is this awful??

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Edit: @40/70 Benchmark My post was about last year, not 21-22 or 22-23

Okay, but consider my point about seasonal guidance erroneously defaulting to stock ENSO....shouldn't be an issue this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This also aligns with my work on the polar domain from a couple of months ago.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/08/preliminary-analysis-of-polar-domain.html

Eastern Mass Weather Preliminary Polar Analogs for Winter 2024-2025

1970

1975

1999

2007

2016

2022

 

[snowman19]

17 hours ago, mitchnick said:

In light of the progged Easterly anomalies upon us now and current SSTA's, it's hard to buy the November spike in SSTA anomalies on this run attached. How that would change other forecasting parameters is anyone's guess. 

Yes. The models are still showing persistent enhanced trade winds/EWBs in ENSO 3.4. If they are correct and it looks like they are based on the totality of the other synoptic features, then there will be cooling in that region and the SSTAs will drop to La Niña territory this month and into next month…..

 

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, George001 said:

like it, what is happening RIGHT NOW in the fall matters. What is the storm track? Is it wet or dry?

One wild card may be how warm Canada is this fall. It’s even warmer than last year which was an El Niño. So we never had this precede a La Niña winter before. I am not sure if the Euro seasonal is just rolling this forward from the initialization. Since it has Canada warmer this winter than the other La Niña winters of the 2020s. 
 

 

[mitchnick]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

One wild card may be how warm Canada is this fall. It’s even warmer than last year which was an El Niño. So we never had this precede a La Niña winter before. I am not sure if the Euro seasonal is just rolling this forward from the initialization. Since it has Canada warmer this winter than the other La Niña winters of the 2020s. 
 

 

No doubt December will be warm for most of the Conus, but I  doubt September temps in and of itself, warm or cold, mean a hill of beans for January to March. The pattern will dictate by then imho.

[michsnowfreak]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

No doubt December will be warm for most of the Conus, but I  doubt September temps in and of itself, warm or cold, mean a hill of beans for January to March. The pattern will dictate by then imho.

I was really thinking a snowy December for here, and still kind of am. Many ninas had December as the best winter month, Feb as the worst, but the models are going for the exact opposite, more in line with recent trends of Dec being the worst and Feb the best. I still don't know what to fully think,.but am still liking the look of this winter here.

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

No doubt December will be warm for most of the Conus, but I  doubt September temps in and of itself, warm or cold, mean a hill of beans for January to March. The pattern will dictate by then imho.

Fall temperatures over North America are one of the parameters we look at in judging the amount of cold that could be available in North America during the winter.