2024-2025 La Nina

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. Per NOAA monthlies, Aug 2024 didn’t have anywhere near record +PNA for Aug as it was only +0.63. Since 1950, 18 Augs had a stronger +NAO incl way higher in ‘22 and ‘18:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
 

2. Per NOAA’s NAO table 2024’s drop Aug to Sep was still big but not as big as 1976, 1983, and 2022.

 

The way they calculate their numbers doesn’t really do justice to the magnitude of the pressure swing from August to September at the surface to 500mb.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The patterns becoming more persistent are the result of the warming atmosphere and oceans. So observing these changes and incorporating them into forecast techniques is just pattern recognition. I take a very data driven approach so it’s more pattern persistence than persistence forecasting.

Right...until the pattern stops persisting. Nobody has it all figured out.

[Typhoon Tip]

research is nearing the codification of a new enso mode ...  'la neutered'   ...it's basically huge negative/positive departures, while the wholesale surrounding global medium behaves like which ever it is, it's completely ballless to motivate any response at all 

[bluewave]

On 10/2/2024 at 2:59 PM, michsnowfreak said:

I was referring to individual decades, not intra-decade stretches.

The current 9 year winter average at DET is 31.1°or +1.6° warmer than the previous peak in 1957 which was 29.5°. NYC is at 38.5° or +2.1 above the previous peak of 36.4° set back in 2002. The effects of this record warm winter run since 15-16 are more pronounced closer to the East Coast. 

[so_whats_happening]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

That's probably because of Helene's impact on NCEI's Asheville center.

Yep was reading about the other day. PSL products are also being affected. Hope they can get everything situated relatively quick.

[so_whats_happening]

We are just about at what used to be the seasonal average (1950-2000) for ACE at about 90 ish. The ACE of 1991-2020 climo era is what used to be considered a hyperactive season which is now the average. Anyways we are right at average for total storm/ hurricanes/ major hurricanes for the season. It looks as though we get maybe one more named system but we should trail off the season near the time it typically does. Kirk and Leslie alone should be able to pick up enough ACE to put us right near the 1991-2020 climo ACE.

As for other areas the strong WWB event in the Indian Ocean looks to spark a cyclone for that region and maybe 1 more solid typhoon in the WPAC before things globally calm down a bit. Most models still have what looks like a solid 5/6 pass for the MJO coming up around mid month. We should also start to see the -NAO relax quite a bit going forward as well but that western ridge may mean business again as we get to mid month. Here is a look at what the pattern could entail based off an MJO Nina passage through 5/6. I started using the Nina base instead of La Nada as we are right on the edge of La Nina status versus over the summer where were virtually neutral. Nothing too exciting on the horizon which is probably for the best after Helene, most could use a solid dry period.

Im excited to get some nice diurnal swings and maybe get a solid kick start into leaf changing season. Ill update some of the Oceanic components sometime next week.

[snowman19]

41 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

We are just about at what used to be the seasonal average (1950-2000) for ACE at about 90 ish. The ACE of 1991-2020 climo era is what used to be considered a hyperactive season which is now the average. Anyways we are right at average for total storm/ hurricanes/ major hurricanes for the season. It looks as though we get maybe one more named system but we should trail off the season near the time it typically does. Kirk and Leslie alone should be able to pick up enough ACE to put us right near the 1991-2020 climo ACE.
As for other areas the strong WWB event in the Indian Ocean looks to spark a cyclone for that region and maybe 1 more solid typhoon in the WPAC before things globally calm down a bit. Most models still have what looks like a solid 5/6 pass for the MJO coming up around mid month. We should also start to see the -NAO relax quite a bit going forward as well but that western ridge may mean business again as we get to mid month. Here is a look at what the pattern could entail based off an MJO Nina passage through 5/6. I started using the Nina base instead of La Nada as we are right on the edge of La Nina status versus over the summer where were virtually neutral. Nothing too exciting on the horizon which is probably for the best after Helene, most could use a solid dry period.
Im excited to get some nice diurnal swings and maybe get a solid kick start into leaf changing season. Ill update some of the Oceanic components sometime next week.

Looks like another Atlantic TC shutdown is coming. I also think the huge solar spike we are seeing right now is contributing to this as well. IMO, 100-110 ACE is where we finish this tropical season

 

 

 

 

Hopefully we see OISST update again soon. Been happy to at least see the TAO, CRW and the QBO data still coming in

 

 

 

 

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Looks like another Atlantic TC shutdown is coming. I also think the huge solar spike we are seeing right now is contributing to this as well. IMO, 100-110 ACE is where we finish this tropical season

 

 

 

Hopefully we see OISST update again soon. Been happy to at least see the TAO, CRW and the QBO data still coming in

 

 

Maybe for the bolded but this is about when we typically start to see the seasonal change enough to end the season. Still could be a random storm that pops up in the Caribbean but nothing on the horizon as we go toward mid month and further.

I like to think solar does still have some important impacts into patterns but I think of it as a bit of a lagged component in that this spike will show up later on in our sensible weather.

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree completely.

However, I thinkl the difficulty getting to within 25% of average is more applicable the further south one is.....that is not difficult in the north.

At least in the first 5 winters of the 2020s, the snowfall deficits from Boston down to DC are pretty equally distributed from north to south relative to their past 5 year lowest levels. The snowfall deficit is only half of the equation. As even though NYC wasn’t able to surpass their lowest 5 year runs like Boston, Philly, and DC did this last winter, the lean 5 year periods from the past were much colder. So this adds to why people are saying it hasn’t really felt much like winter during the 2020s so far except for some good periods briefly in Jan 22 and during 21-22. Let’s hope we can stage some type of snowfall comeback during the 2nd half of the decade so we can avoid going from the snowiest decade in the 2010s to least snowiest decade in the 2020s. 
 

Lowest 5 year snowfall averages at Boston, Philly, and DC with NYC in 2nd place

BOS…..19-20 to 23-24….26.1”….past record 50-51 to 54-55….28.0”

NYC…..19-20 to 23-24….14.2”….past record 27-28 to 31-32….11.8”

PHI…….19-20 to 23-24…..9.7”….past record 48-49 to 52-53…11.8”

DCA…..19-20 to 23-24…..5.5”….past record 97-98…to 01-02…7.5”

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

research is nearing the codification of a new enso mode ...  'la neutered'   ...it's basically huge negative/positive departures, while the wholesale surrounding global medium behaves like which ever it is, it's completely ballless to motivate any response at all 

I am of the opinion that this season will behave in a manner that is consistent with La Nina, however, La Nina will not be the primary driver...if that makes sense.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

At least in the first 5 winters of the 2020s, the snowfall deficits from Boston down to DC are pretty equally distributed from north to south relative to their past 5 year lowest levels. The snowfall deficit is only half of the equation. As even though NYC wasn’t able to surpass their lowest 5 year runs like Boston, Philly, and DC did this last winter, the lean 5 year periods from the past were much colder. So this adds to why people are saying it hasn’t really felt much like winter during the 2020s so far except for some good periods briefly in Jan 22 and during 21-22. Let’s hope we can stage some type of snowfall comeback during the 2nd half of the decade so we can avoid going from the snowiest decade in the 2010s to least snowiest decade in the 2020s. 
 

Lowest 5 year snowfall averages at Boston, Philly, and DC with NYC in 2nd place

BOS…..19-20 to 23-24….26.1”….past record 50-51 to 54-55….28.0”

NYC…..19-20 to 23-24….14.2”….past record 27-28 to 31-32….11.8”

PHI…….19-20 to 23-24…..9.7”….past record 48-49 to 52-53…11.8”

DCA…..19-20 to 23-24…..5.5”….past record 97-98…to 01-02…7.5”

I mean north of Boston. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

20 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if the Bomb Cyclone in Jan 2018 was closer to the coast, that would have been the widespread 24-36" event. Juno, obviously, was close as well. it's just a matter of time, really

ACY still got over a foot with that one. The January 28-29, 2022 snow map is eerily similar. Both were misses north and west of PHL, but the coast really got slammed.

The last widespread 24-36" event was January 22-23, 2016.

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

ACY still got over a foot with that one. The January 28-29, 2022 snow map is eerily similar. Both were misses north and west of PHL, but the coast really got slammed.

The last widespread 24-36" event was January 22-23, 2016.

Yea, that event was better south of New England because H5 closed off so early and far to the south...it was an occluded, shredded mess when it got up here...amounts much over 12" were scarce.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think it closed off at like the latitude of Virginia...

[snowman19]

EPS is developing a massive GOA vortex around mid-month. Fits MJO 4-5, October, -ENSO composites

[George001]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it closed off at like the latitude of Virginia...

That was a great storm for my area still, but definitely left some on the table because of this. Most of the truly high end events are miller bs for a reason, I would rather have the low bombing out right under us than way south. Regardless, 14-15 inches is still a really good storm, I would gladly take another event like that after the past 2 years.

[George001]

One thing I am interested in is the prospect of more miller bs this winter. With the active northern branch combined with the very warm SSTs off the coast I think we will see some big storms. The big question is the temp profile, seasonal guidance right now has a very Nina like BN north AN south like 2022-2023, but guidance does have the cold bleeding somewhat farther south than that year. Still too early to really mean much, but it’s worth watching if that holds up by November.

[snowman19]

Subsurface cold continuing to build, models are getting stronger with the EWB in region 3.4. Fits with the MJO propagating to the Maritime Continent 

TIWs showing up in 3.4

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

ACY still got over a foot with that one. The January 28-29, 2022 snow map is eerily similar. Both were misses north and west of PHL, but the coast really got slammed.

The last widespread 24-36" event was January 22-23, 2016.

January 2022 was the last month for parts of the region that could be considered a great winter month.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	0.1	8.0	1.6	T	0.0	9.7
2019-2020	0.0	T	0.5	T	T	0.0	0.0	0.5
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	T	1.0	6.3	0.0	0.0	7.3
2021-2022	0.0	T	T	33.2	0.1	T	0.0	33.3
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	0.3	T	0.0	0.3
2023-2024	0.0	0.0	T	5.9	1.4	T	0.0	7.3

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

EPS is developing a massive GOA vortex around mid-month. Fits MJO 4-5, October, -ENSO composites

I hope it gets uber-strong this month.

[donsutherland1]

13 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yep was reading about the other day. PSL products are also being affected. Hope they can get everything situated relatively quick.

I agree. A wide range of data products has been disrupted.

[George001]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Subsurface cold continuing to build, models are getting stronger with the EWB in region 3.4. Fits with the MJO propagating to the Maritime Continent 

TIWs showing up in 3.4

Looks like things are on track for an official La Niña by ONI (likely high end weak). The development of this Nina has been impressive over the past few weeks.

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am of the opinion that this season will behave in a manner that is consistent with La Nina, however, La Nina will not be the primary driver...if that makes sense.

As far as a typical Niña/-PDO/+QBO/solar max response, yes I agree 

[michsnowfreak]

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

The current 9 year winter average at DET is 31.1°or +1.6° warmer than the previous peak in 1957 which was 29.5°. NYC is at 38.5° or +2.1 above the previous peak of 36.4° set back in 2002. The effects of this record warm winter run since 15-16 are more pronounced closer to the East Coast. 

Again, Im aware. Never said it wasnt a warm stretch. I merely said I was going by decade to decade, not intra-decade stretches.

It really has been 5 very mild winters here...the other 4 were basically close to normal (2017-18 was colder than avg). A very interesting fact - during this 9 year warm stretch, avg snowfall at Detroit was 40.1". Thats only 5" below the modern day avg, and basically exactly avg for the 20th century. # of annual 1"+ snowcover days, however, averaged 40 during this stretch, which is 10 days below both the modern & longterm avg. (the prior 8 years, which would be 2007-08 thru 2014-15, averaged 58.3" & 61 days of 1"+ snowcover, both well above avg.

Without diving into anymore stats, basically I have come to the conclusion that the increase in precip is an absolute positive for our winter climate. Warmer winters are yielding more snow than they used to (snowcover suffers far more than snowfall), and avg to colder than avg winters also yield more snow. (Of course this is all "on average", there will be low years). Even the warmest winters can yield respectable snowfall amounts IF the patterns are right. This is why I do not focus as much on temps as you guys do, I am more worried about avoiding the real torch winters like 2023-24, but winter at +2F can be as good or better than a winter of -2F when it comes down to snow. (Of course, I personally always root on cold lol).

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Again, Im aware. Never said it wasnt a warm stretch. I merely said I was going by decade to decade, not intra-decade stretches.

It really has been 5 very mild winters here...the other 4 were basically close to normal (2017-18 was colder than avg). A very interesting fact - during this 9 year warm stretch, avg snowfall at Detroit was 40.1". Thats only 5" below the modern day avg, and basically exactly avg for the 20th century. # of annual 1"+ snowcover days, however, averaged 40 during this stretch, which is 10 days below both the modern & longterm avg. (the prior 8 years, which would be 2007-08 thru 2014-15, averaged 58.3" & 61 days of 1"+ snowcover, both well above avg.

Without diving into anymore stats, basically I have come to the conclusion that the increase in precip is an absolute positive for our winter climate. Warmer winters are yielding more snow than they used to (snowcover suffers far more than snowfall), and avg to colder than avg winters also yield more snow. (Of course this is all "on average", there will be low years). Even the warmest winters can yield respectable snowfall amounts IF the patterns are right. This is why I do not focus as much on temps as you guys do, I am more worried about avoiding the real torch winters like 2023-24, but winter at +2F can be as good or better than a winter of -2F when it comes down to snow. (Of course, I personally always root on cold lol).

Yeah, you guys will manage to hold onto traditional winters longer than the I-95 coastal crew on this forum. Being closer to the center of the continent and away from the rapidly warming Atlantic are a real plus for you. The posters especially near the LES zones have been benefitting from the warmer lakes staying open longer. Even during the warmest winter in 23-24 for Marquette at +8.4, it was still 25.2°. While not great by local standards, the 126.5” of snow for Marquette in a place like NYC would wildly exceed anything in the modern record. This past warmest winter for Marquette was about the same temperature as the coldest on record for NYC in 1917-1918 at 25.7°. If NYC should ever run a +8 departure in this much warmer climate, than something close to a snowfall shutout could occur with potentially only a T to 1” for the whole season. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, you guys will manage to hold onto traditional winters longer than the I-95 coastal crew on this forum. Being closer to the center of the continent and away from the rapidly warming Atlantic are a real plus for you. The posters especially near the LES zones have been benefitting from the warmer lakes staying open longer. Even during the warmest winter in 23-24 for Marquette at +8.4, it was still 25.2°. While not great by local standards, the 126.5” of snow for Marquette in a place like NYC would wildly exceed anything in the modern record. This past warmest winter for Marquette was about the same temperature as the coldest on record for NYC in 1917-1918 at 25.7°. If NYC should ever run a +8 departure in this much warmer climate, than something close to a snowfall shutout could occur with potentially only a T to 1” for the whole season. 

The biggest benefitters have been those south of Buffalo including myself. We probably average 110" a year at my location. But here are my totals since keeping track down here. Averages out to 129.42" a year. I've had 2 75"+ events since 2022 and a once in a century blizzard with almost 60". The same cannot be said for other areas though. Rochester and Syracuse have had record low snowfall totals the last 6-7 yrs due to the lack of cold air and NW flow. All the flows have been WSW/SW with the cutter pattern we've had.

• 2013-14 snowfall: 161.7"            2018-19 snowfall: 122.8”        2023-24 snowfall: 125.1"                       
• 2014-15 snowfall: 212.8"            2019-20 snowfall: 83.3"
• 2015-16 snowfall: 80.1"             2020-21 snowfall: 101.1"
• 2016-17 snowfall: 93.3"             2021-22 snowfall: 105.4"
• 2017-18 snowfall: 152.4"            2022-23 snowfall: 185.6"

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, you guys will manage to hold onto traditional winters longer than the I-95 coastal crew on this forum. Being closer to the center of the continent and away from the rapidly warming Atlantic are a real plus for you. The posters especially near the LES zones have been benefitting from the warmer lakes staying open longer. Even during the warmest winter in 23-24 for Marquette at +8.4, it was still 25.2°. While not great by local standards, the 126.5” of snow for Marquette in a place like NYC would wildly exceed anything in the modern record. This past warmest winter for Marquette was about the same temperature as the coldest on record for NYC in 1917-1918 at 25.7°. If NYC should ever run a +8 departure in this much warmer climate, than something close to a snowfall shutout could occur with potentially only a T to 1” for the whole season. 

Another interesting thing to add...since the 15-16 super nino, while the winters have been mild, (and it was made even more annoying by the record snowy stretch that it just followed), we have set a slew of early and late season snow records/quirks:

~cold/snowy Novembers

~largest Nov snowstorm on record (Nov 11, 2019)

~most consecutive days in a row with May snow (5) May 8-12, 2020

~3 consecutive years (2020, 2021, 2022) saw a snowstorm between April 17-21 drop 2-6" on the area

~snowiest Halloween on record (2023)

 

That's just Detroit. You see the snowgasm south Buffalo has been enjoying. And there have been a few very impressive record arctic shots as well, showing the cold is there. The thing is, warming climate or not, the snow season is very long from 1st to last flake. And we all can use the added moisture to our benefit IF/WHEN the pattern works out. And this goes for you too. It's a different climate but don't think for one second that an absolutely massive moisture laden bomb can't bury NYC in feet of snow. Just a decade ago everyone was having snowy winter after snowy winter. That's not that long ago. There are many factors at play, including enso and changes in climate, but  the overall hostile nature of the pattern, especially for the east coast, doesn't get nearly enough credit for whats happened in recent winters imo. If below zero temps and -30° to -40° wind chills can pop in for a visit during one of the warmest winters on record (see Jan 2024), the east coast can get a good snow season. Pattern just needs to shake up.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 10/3/2024 at 8:02 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

heh ... considering that the whole world put up the 2nd warmest sep in history ... not sure we can say 'due to +epo' as the singular cause for that

but yeah, it wasn't hurting to have the pacific signal as such

lol yeah, the point is though that index driven patterns roll forward. I'm sure global warming begets more warm, but that I have a +4F anomalies in some cases, with over 40% of the dataset being used is a pretty strong index-rolled forward signal. +EPO and +NAO are cold weather anomalies, so there is something of a balancing act to the referenced. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 10/3/2024 at 12:59 PM, GaWx said:

Chuck/others,

 The +8.61 was for Aug. Sep just updated and was +10.36. Based on past, highest chance for peak is within Oct-Dec with smaller chance JF. Even if peaks Oct, DJF should still be +:

2024  -24.56  -25.54  -28.56  -23.42   -6.52    1.95    6.91    8.61   10.36

Coupled with a La Nina, that's a negative 10mb signal for the Winter. With Solar Max occurring, and my N. Atlantic SST index coming in about +0.50 for DJFM, it's looking probably about 75% probable that this will be a +NAO Winter (DJFM). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Subsurface cold continuing to build

Earlier in September we had some pretty good negative subsurface.. most recent shows complete neutral.. largest anomaly deviation is actually positive below Nino 1+2