2024-2025 La Nina

[bluewave]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We have talked about this before, but you know my stance for now....its regression on the heels of the snowiest decade in history. If it remains like this into next decade, then I will reconsider that position.

If you recall, last decade the world was ending out west due to the multiyear drought...

I would just leave out the regression to the  mean part since the volatility in our snowfall since the 1990s in places like the NYC Metro has been beyond any historical mean. Islip has seen an all or nothing snowfall pattern since the 1990s with hardly any average seasons. The previous 30-40 year period was defined by mostly mean seasons with higher and lower seasons more rare. These days it’s either record high or low snowfall with very few average seasons which were much more common in the old days. 

The Western droughts continue to this day. But they have been moving around with the shifting stuck record 500 mb ridge positions. This has come with an acceleration of the water cycle which has lead to big swings between wet and dry against the overall drier pattern.
 

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Theoretically speaking, Chris' connection to CC makes sense...but I just need to see it continue for another 7-8 years or so before more strongly considering it. The permanent alteration of the pattern...not the warming part. We know it is warming....no debate there.

Just noting the changes that have occurred. Since 2010 NYC Metro and other regional spots have experienced 12 out of 15 warmer to record warmer summers. So we have a 15 year period of observations for the summer new summer pattern. The same areas have experienced a record 9 consecutive warmer to record warm winters since 15-16. The remaining winters of the decade will give us more data to make a winter determination. 

[mitchnick]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Other than some residual warmth it shows in the GOA, it still has the colder anomalies developing there. Other than that, I don’t see a huge difference 

Yeah, I was comparing the other 2 maps  cyclonicwx.com has for the 2. My bad. 

I still can't understand these discrepancies. If the different sources can't agree on SSTA now, how in Sam Hill are we supposed to trust historical maps?

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I would also add that Chris was plenty bullish here and over on Eastern (IIRC) during the heavenly era we experienced beginning in the mid 2000s—and especially 13-14 and 14-15.  He’s probably one of the most objective contributors in this community of ours.

I didn't really pay much attention to him back then, so I will take your word for it. I have recognized his worhtwhile contributions over the past couple of seasons, though because he has been on of the few that has had a firm grasp.

[so_whats_happening]

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yeah, I was comparing the other 2 maps  cyclonicwx.com has for the 2. My bad. 

I still can't understand these discrepancies. If the different sources can't agree on SSTA now, how in Sam Hill are we supposed to trust historical maps?

The OISST has not updated in 5 days.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I would just leave out the regression to the  mean part since the volatility in our snowfall since the 1990s in places like the NYC Metro has been beyond any historical mean. Islip has seen an all or nothing snowfall pattern since the 1990s with hardly any average seasons. The previous 30-40 year period was defined by mostly mean seasons with higher and lower seasons more rare. These days it’s either record high or low snowfall with very few average seasons which were much more common in the old days. 

The Western droughts continue to this day. But they have been moving around with the shifting stuck record 500 mb ridge positions. This has come with an acceleration of the water cycle which has lead to big swings between wet and dry against the overall drier pattern.
 

Just noting the changes that have occurred. Since 2010 NYC Metro and other regional spots have experienced 12 out of 15 warmer to record warmer summers. So we have a 15 year period of observations for the summer new summer pattern. The same areas have experienced a record 9 consecutive warmer to record warm winters since 15-16. The remaining winters of the decade will give us more data to make a winter determination. 

We can agree to diasgree on the regression part. Yes, volatility has been increased, but when you view snowfall through a decadal lens, its apprent that this decade is regression from last decade....volatility is multi-decadal and not relgated to the seasonal level.

[donsutherland1]

26 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

The OISST has not updated in 5 days.

That's probably because of Helene's impact on NCEI's Asheville center.

[George BM]

Yeah multiple indices could be offline for a bit.

[FPizz]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We can agree to diasgree on the regression part. Yes, volatility has been increased, but when you view snowfall through a decadal lens, then its apprent that this decade is regression from last decade....volatility is multi-decadal and not relgated to the seasonal level.

Agreed.  Even though temps were colder, if you lived in the tri-state area for the 70s and 80s, I'm sure many thought that was the new norm by getting the 2 worst decades for snowfall back to back. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

I would also add that Chris was plenty bullish here and over on Eastern (IIRC) during the heavenly era we experienced beginning in the mid 2000s—and especially 13-14 and 14-15.  He’s probably one of the most objective contributors in this community of ours.

He’s an outstanding contributor here and I’m personally much more knowledgeable for all the data and research he’s posted. Can’t be said enough. When the time comes for him to be bullish again he will be lol. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That's probably because of Helene's impact on NCEI's Asheville center.

Yea, it has impacted the PDO page.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

He’s an outstanding contributor here and I’m personally much more knowledgeable for all the data and research he’s posted. Can’t be said enough. When the time comes for him to be bullish again he will be lol. 

Well, we are all human.....I feel like he could untlimately be exposed for becoming a bit too reliant upon persistence forecasting, which is esstneitally what happened to me at the turn of the decade. Nobody is immune to it.

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, we are all human.....I feel like he could untlimately be exposed for becoming a bit too reliant upon persistence forecasting, which is esstneitally what happened to me at the turn of the decade. Nobody is immune to it.

Yep, no one’s perfect. To me it just keeps being humbling how it seems so many assumptions have been turned on their heads over the last 5-6 years or so. I agree that it’s been our turn for a while for a significant regression back to the longer term mean for NYC which is about 25”/winter. There’s no way we can expect constant 40”/season bonanzas. The bonanzas bumped Central Park up to 30” average for 1991-2020 and my backyard east of the city to high 30s but we’re due for it to decrease. Hopefully in 10 years we’re not still decreasing. 

[snowman19]

The subsurface under region 3.4 is cooling down quickly again. Now it really looks like a CP event

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, BlizzardWx said:

Having grown up in the west (Portland OR) I can certainly speak to the feeling that things will never go back to normal and the anguish of multiple lackluster snow years in a row. Things do turn around eventually but decadal snow drought patterns are definitely a thing. 

yeah, I remember in the 2013-14 and 2014-15 winters when people in the West were wondering if the anomalous warm and dry winters were going to be the "new normal." how silly that sounds at this point

[brooklynwx99]

I do think that winters are going to become almost solely boom or bust depending on which kind of cycle we're in... right now, we're in the bust cycle. true "normal" winters within 25% of average are going to be harder and harder to come by

however, I'm reasonably confident that when the EC sees a favorable pattern for an extended period of time, which will happen, it's probably going to be quite the year. if we go into a +PDO regime and still can't get anything going through 2035 or so that's when I'll fully re-evaluate my expectations

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The subsurface under region 3.4 is cooling down quickly again. Now it really looks like a CP event

Yep. Warm shot is over per top GFS map.  If the Cfs2 is right (bottom map), cooling should continue through mid-November then it wanes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I do think that winters are going to become almost solely boom or bust depending on which kind of cycle we're in... right now, we're in the bust cycle. true "normal" winters within 25% of average are going to be harder and harder to come by

however, I'm reasonably confident that when the EC sees a favorable pattern for an extended period of time, which will happen, it's probably going to be quite the year. if we go into a +PDO regime and still can't get anything going through 2035 or so that's when I'll fully re-evaluate my expectations

Agree completely.

However, I thinkl the difficulty getting to within 25% of average is more applicable the further south one is.....that is not difficult in the north.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree completely.

However, I thinkl the difficulty getting to within 25% of average is more applicable the further south one is.....that is not difficult in the north.

I think it’ll happen within 10 years that there’s a truly crippling historic snowstorm or series of snowstorms that happen here when we can get the pieces to finally fit together-stuck pattern, warm Atlantic SSTs and finally enough cold. By that I mean widespread 30”+, maybe 36”. NYC was 40 miles from it happening in Feb 2013, close in Jan 2015 and 2022, close in early Feb 2010 etc. It did happen in Mar 1888 and and to a lesser extent 2/26/2010 with the retrograding bomb (I know a bad memory for most of New England). I would take that in a second even if the rest of winter had zilch. 

[FPizz]

23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I do think that winters are going to become almost solely boom or bust depending on which kind of cycle we're in... right now, we're in the bust cycle. true "normal" winters within 25% of average are going to be harder and harder to come by

however, I'm reasonably confident that when the EC sees a favorable pattern for an extended period of time, which will happen, it's probably going to be quite the year. if we go into a +PDO regime and still can't get anything going through 2035 or so that's when I'll fully re-evaluate my expectations

Our area is boom/bust most of the time anyway.  Only 7 times in the past 37 years that I've been measuring have I gotten to within 25% +/- our average.  It is usually well below or above average. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I think it’ll happen within 10 years that there’s a truly crippling historic snowstorm or series of snowstorms that happen here when we can get the pieces to finally fit together-stuck pattern, warm Atlantic SSTs and finally enough cold. By that I mean widespread 30”+, maybe 36”. NYC was 40 miles from it happening in Feb 2013, close in Jan 2015 and 2022, close in early Feb 2010 etc. It did happen in Mar 1888 and and to a lesser extent 2/26/2010 with the retrograding bomb (I know a bad memory for most of New England). I would take that in a second even if the rest of winter had zilch. 

I agree...and I will take that. I would rather have a few lean years, as much as I bitch, when there is more time to focus on work and family, then be pinned to the blog for  a string of 3"ers. I go all in on those storms so save it for the biggies.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I think it’ll happen within 10 years that there’s a truly crippling historic snowstorm or series of snowstorms that happen here when we can get the pieces to finally fit together-stuck pattern, warm Atlantic SSTs and finally enough cold. By that I mean widespread 30”+, maybe 36”. NYC was 40 miles from it happening in Feb 2013, close in Jan 2015 and 2022, close in early Feb 2010 etc. It did happen in Mar 1888 and and to a lesser extent 2/26/2010 with the retrograding bomb (I know a bad memory for most of New England). I would take that in a second even if the rest of winter had zilch. 

if the Bomb Cyclone in Jan 2018 was closer to the coast, that would have been the widespread 24-36" event. Juno, obviously, was close as well. it's just a matter of time, really

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Our area is boom/bust most of the time anyway.  Only 7 times in the past 37 years that I've been measuring have I gotten to within 25% +/- our average.  It is usually well below or above average. 

Yea, I would say from about the latitude of Providence, RI and points southward. Lot easier to BS your way to a respectable season once you get into N RI/CT and especially the MA pike.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if the Bomb Cyclone in Jan 2018 was closer to the coast, that would have been the widespread 24-36" event. Juno, obviously, was close as well. it's just a matter of time, really

The issue with the bomb cyclone is that it occluded so far to the south...not that it was too far east.

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if the Bomb Cyclone in Jan 2018 was closer to the coast, that would have been the widespread 24-36" event. Juno, obviously, was close as well. it's just a matter of time, really

That was a really nice one (1/4/2018), too bad it couldn’t slow down. It was hauling. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That was a really nice one (1/4/2018), too bad it couldn’t slow down. It was hauling. 

The trough dug so far to the south that it remained progressive and occluded fast.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, we are all human.....I feel like he could untlimately be exposed for becoming a bit too reliant upon persistence forecasting, which is esstneitally what happened to me at the turn of the decade. Nobody is immune to it.

The patterns becoming more persistent are the result of the warming atmosphere and oceans. So observing these changes and incorporating them into forecast techniques is just pattern recognition. I take a very data driven approach so it’s more pattern persistence than persistence forecasting.

[GaWx]

18 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

+8.61.. not really up a lot from Aug. October will probably be >+10, peaking during the Winter. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

Chuck/others,

 The +8.61 was for Aug. Sep just updated and was +10.36. Based on past, highest chance for peak is within Oct-Dec with smaller chance JF. Even if peaks Oct, DJF should still be +:

2024  -24.56  -25.54  -28.56  -23.42   -6.52    1.95    6.91    8.61   10.36

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Chuck/others,

 The +8.61 was for Aug. Sep just updated and was +10.36. Based on past, highest chance for peak is within Oct-Dec with smaller chance JF. Even if peaks Oct, DJF should still be +:

2024  -24.56  -25.54  -28.56  -23.42   -6.52    1.95    6.91    8.61   10.36

Beat me to it, just saw the updated number (+10.36). Since it just went positive in June, my guess is a peak around January or thereabouts 

[GaWx]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Beat me to it, just saw the updated number (+10.36). Since it just went positive in June, my guess is a peak around January or thereabouts 

The reason I said Oct-Dec as most likely peak based on past is that peak has largely been at 4th-7th + month in a row. With June the 1st, 4-7 would be Sep-Dec. But last 16 peaks have been at 11+ amplitude. So, I highly doubt Sep’s +10 will be peak. Last time peak was 8th+ + month in row was 15 peaks ago (1993). But DJF will almost certainly still be well within +, regardless.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

Agreed.  Even though temps were colder, if you lived in the tri-state area for the 70s and 80s, I'm sure many thought that was the new norm by getting the 2 worst decades for snowfall back to back. 

We were living in a much colder climate back then so the below normal snow years were the result of drier conditions and unfavorable storm tracks. These days our below normal years are the result of too much warmth and unfavorable storm tracks. Also remember that the bad seasons back then had more snowfall than our poor do seasons now. 
 

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Our area is boom/bust most of the time anyway.  Only 7 times in the past 37 years that I've been measuring have I gotten to within 25% +/- our average.  It is usually well below or above average. 

It wasn’t always that way. From the 1960s into the early 1990s especially on Long Island there was a balanced  mix of below, near normal, and above normal snowfall seasons. Many seasons with mid 20s snowfall. Since the 90s it’s almost exclusively well below or well above with hardly any mid 20s seasons. As the climate continues to warm it will be harder to get the above normal seasons so the below normal seasons will become the new normal.