2024-2025 La Nina

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 13-14 winter was one of what I call the big 5 of modern times. The other winters were  95-96, 09-10, 10-11 and 14-15. 95-96 still stands as the greatest winter in NYC Metro for wall to wall cold and snow from November into April. 09-10 was the greatest winter for snowfall from DC to Philly. 10-11 featured the greatest 33 day snowfall around NYC Metro at just over 60” from late December into late January. 13-14 was one of the best for snow combined with cold in the Great Lakes. 14-15 was tops for Boston snowfall. 

The 95-96 winter was before the big global temperature jump in 97-98. So NYC Metro was still able to register their snowiest winter with parts of Long Island recording over 90”. The extended cold from November into April hasn’t been rivaled either as the world has warmed. 

The next big global temperature rise to a new higher baseline occurred  in 15-16 and no winters since then have been able to rival 09-10 in the mid-Atlantic. Same goes for 10-11 around NYC and 13-14 for the Great Lakes and 14-15 near Boston.

Now we have seen one of the greatest global temperature rises over the last year or so. These big temperature rises make it unlikely that we could see one of these big 5 repeat again in this much warmer climate. So we can probably retire those 5 years as analogs for the new warmer climate. 

Agree. I would also add 02-03 to that list

[rclab]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 13-14 winter was one of what I call the big 5 of modern times. The other winters were  95-96, 09-10, 10-11 and 14-15. 95-96 still stands as the greatest winter in NYC Metro for wall to wall cold and snow from November into April. 09-10 was the greatest winter for snowfall from DC to Philly. 10-11 featured the greatest 33 day snowfall around NYC Metro at just over 60” from late December into late January. 13-14 was one of the best for snow combined with cold in the Great Lakes. 14-15 was tops for Boston snowfall. 

The 95-96 winter was before the big global temperature jump in 97-98. So NYC Metro was still able to register their snowiest winter with parts of Long Island recording over 90”. The extended cold from November into April hasn’t been rivaled either as the world has warmed. 

The next big global temperature rise to a new higher baseline occurred  in 15-16 and no winters since then have been able to rival 09-10 in the mid-Atlantic. Same goes for 10-11 around NYC and 13-14 for the Great Lakes and 14-15 near Boston.

Now we have seen one of the greatest global temperature rises over the last year or so. These big temperature rises make it unlikely that we could see one of these big 5 repeat again in this much warmer climate. So we can probably retire those 5 years as analogs for the new warmer climate. 

Good morning B W. After reading your post I immediately thought of W S’s words, “what fools these mortals be”. Ironically coming from ‘A Midsummers Night Dream’. Stay well, as always ….

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 13-14 winter was one of what I call the big 5 of modern times. The other winters were  95-96, 09-10, 10-11 and 14-15. 95-96 still stands as the greatest winter in NYC Metro for wall to wall cold and snow from November into April. 09-10 was the greatest winter for snowfall from DC to Philly. 10-11 featured the greatest 33 day snowfall around NYC Metro at just over 60” from late December into late January. 13-14 was one of the best for snow combined with cold in the Great Lakes. 14-15 was tops for Boston snowfall. 

The 95-96 winter was before the big global temperature jump in 97-98. So NYC Metro was still able to register their snowiest winter with parts of Long Island recording over 90”. The extended cold from November into April hasn’t been rivaled either as the world has warmed. 

The next big global temperature rise to a new higher baseline occurred  in 15-16 and no winters since then have been able to rival 09-10 in the mid-Atlantic. Same goes for 10-11 around NYC and 13-14 for the Great Lakes and 14-15 near Boston.

Now we have seen one of the greatest global temperature rises over the last year or so. These big temperature rises make it unlikely that we could see one of these big 5 repeat again in this much warmer climate. So we can probably retire those 5 years as analogs for the new warmer climate. 

Retire in an absolute sense maybe, they still have utility if one accounts for CC.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Retire in an absolute sense maybe, they still have utility if one accounts for CC.

In the last 30 years, nothing can compare to those 6 winters (95-96, 02-03, 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15). For the most part, they all tipped their hand by the end of November then it was “bombs away” for months, in most cases right through the beginning of April. The exception being 10-11 which shut off and ended in February. Had it kept going, I have no doubt we would have beaten 95-96

[michsnowfreak]

38 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Keep in mind that you’re in a location more much less apt (if apt at all) to be warmer than normal in La Niña. Many of us are concentrating more on closer to the E coast. In my case, I naturally also like to talk about my area, which is more highly impacted to the mild side by a dominant SE ridge. I’ve yet to see a seasonal model for this winter not calling for a mild winter and warmer winter than 23-24 in the SE US overall, which is what I’d expect with a strong -PDO and Niña. That’s the main reason I keep looking ahead to 25-6 for a potentially much colder winter down here with the CANSIPS again literally showing a Modoki El Niño.

Oh I know. I have always found it helpful to pay attention to BOTH the midwest and northeast because sometimes I can be on the "eastern fringe" of a midwest pattern or the "western fringe" of a northeast pattern. And to clarify, when I say Im seeing bias, its not a knock on any one person, its just how I see it. I see this thread (bias posts included) filled with people with lots of knowledge. Weather forums over the years (and I go back to WWBB circa 2002) have really changed. They have certainly lost a TON of traffic since the heyday, but they actually seemed to have increased in knowledgable posters.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 13-14 winter was one of what I call the big 5 of modern times. The other winters were  95-96, 09-10, 10-11 and 14-15. 95-96 still stands as the greatest winter in NYC Metro for wall to wall cold and snow from November into April. 09-10 was the greatest winter for snowfall from DC to Philly. 10-11 featured the greatest 33 day snowfall around NYC Metro at just over 60” from late December into late January. 13-14 was one of the best for snow combined with cold in the Great Lakes. 14-15 was tops for Boston snowfall. 

The 95-96 winter was before the big global temperature jump in 97-98. So NYC Metro was still able to register their snowiest winter with parts of Long Island recording over 90”. The extended cold from November into April hasn’t been rivaled either as the world has warmed. 

The next big global temperature rise to a new higher baseline occurred  in 15-16 and no winters since then have been able to rival 09-10 in the mid-Atlantic. Same goes for 10-11 around NYC and 13-14 for the Great Lakes and 14-15 near Boston.

Now we have seen one of the greatest global temperature rises over the last year or so. These big temperature rises make it unlikely that we could see one of these big 5 repeat again in this much warmer climate. So we can probably retire those 5 years as analogs for the new warmer climate. 

I was 12, almost 13 in 1995-96, and it was my first winter religiously measuring snow (2024-25 will be season #30). I can still remember watching TWC and seeing the east coast constantly get slammed while it was a cold, dry, unexciting winter here. Definitely one I would never want to repeat.

My top 5 over the last 30 years would be (ranked in terms of overall subjective severity, not just snow):

2013-14

2010-11

2007-08

2014-15

2008-09

 

If I had to rank the 5 most severe winters since 1870, the ranking here would be:

2013-14

1880-81

1981-82

1874-75

1903-04

 

2013-14 was the most severe winter on record for southern MI. It's easy to confirm that it's not happening again. There are severe winters...then there's 2013-14.

[bluewave]

57 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Cansips pretty much held serve from last month's forecast, and looks a lot like the Cfs2 too tempwise.

The temps from the CanSIPS forecasts have been biased way too cold last few winters.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

53 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

In the last 30 years, nothing can compare to those 6 winters (95-96, 02-03, 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15). For the most part, they all tipped their hand by the end of November then it was “bombs away” for months, in most cases right through the beginning of April. The exception being 10-11 which shut off and ended in February. Had it kept going, I have no doubt we would have beaten 95-96

2017-2018 beat all but two or three of them for me in terms of snowfall...2010-2011 was close, but it certainly beat 2013, 2002 and 2009.

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The temps from the CanSIPS forecasts have been biased way too cold last few winters.

 

 

I think most guidance has been too cold....and its also notable that the pattern looks more favorable, regardles of whether its too cold. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2017-2018 beat all but two or three of them for me in terms of snowfall...2010-2011 was close, but it certainly beat 2013, 2002 and 2009.

If you lived near a coast, then 2017-18 (and maybe 2021-22) could have beaten out some of those years. Same with 1993-94 and 2020-21 for many areas north and west of PHL. The snow was just not as widespread in the Eastern US as many of those other listed years. [93-94 may not have been as snowy in most locations, but it was wall-to-wall widespread cold, and may have rivaled 95-96 in that regard.] Years like 10-11 and 13-14 were snowy no matter where you lived in the Eastern US.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If you lived near a coast, then 2017-18 (and maybe 2021-22) could have beaten out some of those years. Same with 1993-94 and 2020-21 for many areas north and west of PHL. The snow was just not as widespread in the Eastern US as many of those other listed years. [93-94 may not have been as snowy in most locations, but it was wall-to-wall widespread cold, and may have rivaled 95-96 in that regard.] Years like 10-11 and 13-14 were snowy no matter where you lived in the Eastern US.

2013 was only slighly above average snowfall where I am....I would take 2017 over 2013, hands down.

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think most guidance has been too cold....and its also notable that the pattern looks more favorable, regardles of whether its too cold. 

The forecast at 500mb looks like a blend of 21-22 and Feb 18. So yes if that verified it would be a departure from the deep Western Trough of 22-23. That being said, none of these seasonal models have been great at this range so the finer details will have to wait. 
 

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The temps from the CanSIPS forecasts have been biased way too cold last few winters.

 

 

Lol. Does it ever end with you?

[snowman19]

EWB right smack dab in the middle of 3.4. More support for a central-based/CP event growing:
 

 

 

Eastern Region 3:

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Lol. Does it ever end with you?

He’s right because the seasonal model progs have sucked up at H5, too. 500 mb hts have tended to miss too low in E US just like H85, 2 meters, etc…..pretty much the entire troposphere. When trough shows up at H5 in E US, that often has not verified closely. Can even end up as ridge easily.

 Look at last winter, when models had strong Aleutian trough at H5. They were way off. So, you can’t even trust the H5 “pattern” on them.

 CANSIPS is showing Modoki El Niño starting next summer. Am I betting on it? Heck no even though these are SST anoms rather than H5. Of course I’m hopeful and will keep posting about it if it persists but not trusting by any means. I don’t trust long range models for anything though E US warmth has seemingly been verifying more closely.

 

[mitchnick]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

He’s right because the seasonal model progs have sucked up at H5, too. 500 mb hts have tended to miss too low in E US just like H85, 2 meters, etc…..pretty much the entire troposphere. When trough shows up at H5 in E US, that often has not verified closely. Can even end up as ridge easily.

 Look at last winter, when models had strong Aleutian trough at H5. They were way off. So, you can’t even trust the H5 “pattern” on them.

 CANSIPS is showing Modoki El Niño starting next summer. Am I betting on it? Heck no even though these are SST anoms rather than H5. Of course I’m hopeful and will keep posting about it if it persists but not trusting by any means. I don’t trust long range models for anything though E US warmth has seemingly been verifying more closely.

 

I think we all know the history/accuracy of seasonal modeling. Nobody is saying they will be right or wrong, and understand that past performance is no guarantee of future performance. All I said was it looked like the Cfs2 tempwise. I didn't even bother to post maps. All very odd to me.

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are never going to see +13 magnitude anomalies in seasonal guidance...I think we all understand that.

It goes beyond the seasonal guidance though. The first idea that we were going to make a run on +13 during December 2015 didn’t really happen until the month had already started. So the medium range guidance was way off also from late November. While that was an exceptional event around the Northeast, there were 10 other months since then for parts of the U.S. with a near +10 or greater departure. They also didn’t have much notice before the month started. This is how the seasonal guidance from the various models have been biased so cool. Any location that registers a +10 for at least one winter month is going to skew the whole winter departure well beyond what any of the seasonal models were indicating. That’s why even if the model gets the longitude of the ridge axis correct over the U.S., the temperature departures near the strongest part of the ridge have blown way past what the seasonal model forecasts were indicating.

Near +10 or greater departure months in the U.S. since December 2015

Dec…2015….NYC….+13.3

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

It goes beyond the seasonal guidance though. The first idea that we were going to make a run on +13 during December 2015 didn’t really happen until the month had already started. So the medium range guidance was way off also from late November. While that was an exceptional event around the Northeast, there were 10 other months since then for parts of the U.S. with a near +10 or greater departure. They also didn’t have much notice before the month started. This is how the seasonal guidance from the various models have been biased so cool. Any location that registers a +10 for at least one winter month is going to skew the whole winter departure well beyond what any of the seasonal models were indicating. That’s why even if the model gets the longitude of the ridge axis correct over the U.S., the temperature departures near the strongest part of the ridge have blown way past what the seasonal model forecasts were indicating.

Near +10 or greater departure months in the U.S. since December 2015

Dec…2015….NYC….+13.3

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

See and that is what I really couldn't care less about...give me 2017-2018 all day long. I don't care that February being +123* C skewed the winter warm. But this is a more verbose way of saying adjust warmer from analog composites due to CC.

We get it.

Extreme anomalies are always difficult to forecast at extended leads. Agreed. 

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

See and that is what I really couldn't care less about...give me 2017-2018 all day long. I don't care that February being +123* C skewed the winter warm. But this is a more verbose way of saying adjust warmer from analog composites due to CC.

We get it.

Extreme anomalies are always difficult to forecast at extendes leads. Agreed. 

The one constant since 15-16 is that the temperatures and Southeast or Western Atlantic Ridge have exceeded the given model seasonal forecasts. There has generally been a trough axis with varying depths near the West and an Aleutian Ridge. The finer points of how much snowfall and how warm the departure will be for a place like NYC usually has to wait until we get through October and even into December for conformation of early season clues.

There seems to be a few issues at hand for a place like NYC. First the 2010 to 2019 decade was the snowiest on record. The heavy snows which began around 2010 or even to a lesser extent 2002-2003 reversed as the Pacific became increasingly hostile during the 2018-2019 winter right after the November snowstorm. There was a dramatic shift to warmer following the big global temperature jump in 15-16. So this has been the first 9 winter run of record to warmer temperatures. 
 

 

[snowman19]

@Gawx Here comes another solar spike. Very large sunspot group showing up with major flares. Radio flux and geomag also going up
 

 

 

 

Also, the IOD got more negative (-0.39), all models now showing it on the negative side of neutral going into November, increasing confidence in a weak CP event going into winter: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

 

 

[snowman19]

@Stormchaserchuck1 @GaWx Any update on September’s QBO number yet?

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 @GaWx Any update on September’s QBO number yet?

1. The QBO is not out yet on any source I look at

2. The dead-cat bounce has been another impressive one in Nino 3.4:

[bluewave]

On 10/1/2024 at 9:53 AM, michsnowfreak said:

I was 12, almost 13 in 1995-96, and it was my first winter religiously measuring snow (2024-25 will be season #30). I can still remember watching TWC and seeing the east coast constantly get slammed while it was a cold, dry, unexciting winter here. Definitely one I would never want to repeat.

My top 5 over the last 30 years would be (ranked in terms of overall subjective severity, not just snow):

2013-14

2010-11

2007-08

2014-15

2008-09

 

If I had to rank the 5 most severe winters since 1870, the ranking here would be:

2013-14

1880-81

1981-82

1874-75

1903-04

 

2013-14 was the most severe winter on record for southern MI. It's easy to confirm that it's not happening again. There are severe winters...then there's 2013-14.

The fall into spring of 95-96 was the most perfectly balanced -EPO -WPO -NAO pattern we have experienced. It was still in a much colder climate back then before all the big marine heatwaves and global temperature increases. So the available Arctic air as displayed as in the record cold 93-94 pattern over North America was on par with some of the great Arctic outbreaks of the 1980s. That great Southwest Ridge near Baja was the icing on the cake for the snowiest season on Long Island to near 90”. Also notice that deep trough north of Hawaii which was effectively a near perfect +PDO atmospheric 500 signature even as it was a weak La Niña.
 

 

[snowman19]

1. The QBO is not out yet on any source I look at
2. The dead-cat bounce has been another impressive one in Nino 3.4:

Big jump, back to well over 200. When you combine this with the MJO propagation to the Maritime Continent later this month, my guess is another shutdown of Atlantic TC’s

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Big jump, back to well over 200. When you combine this with the MJO propagation to the Maritime Continent later this month, my guess is another shutdown of Atlantic TC’s

 

 

 

 

 Yep, way up the last few days. Aug was at 215 while Sep had sharply dropped to 141.

 Despite the big increase of SSN back to above 200, the Euro Weeklies mean is forecasting by a large margin the busiest Oct 7-13 in the Atlantic basin at least back to 1991 with ACE well into the 30s, which is more than twice the mean for the peak climo week of a month earlier! We have Kirk, TD 13, and possibly a Gulf low that are all projected to go well into the 10/7-13 week.

 It will undoubtedly drop sharply afterward but climo favors that, too, in the 2nd half of Oct.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Yep, way up the last few days. Aug was at 215 while Sep had sharply dropped to 141.

 Despite the big increase of SSN back to above 200, the Euro Weeklies mean is forecasting by a large margin the busiest Oct 7-13 in the Atlantic basin at least back to 1991 with ACE well into the 30s, which is more than twice the mean for the peak climo week of a month earlier! We have Kirk, TD 13, and possibly a Gulf low that are all projected to go well into the 10/7-13 week.

 It will undoubtedly drop sharply afterward but climo favors that, too, in the 2nd half of Oct.

Color me very skeptical of that EURO forecast. It has been busting badly on ACE this summer as it is 

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Color me very skeptical of that EURO forecast. It has been busting badly on ACE this summer as it is 

 I strongly disagree about the Euro Weeklies. Although far from perfect (no model is close to perfect), the Weeklies correctly forecasted the active periods during summer followed by the very quiet late Aug-mid Sept. Then they forecasted correctly the big resurgence in late Sep weeks in advance! Furthermore, Isaac and TD 13 are already in existence. So, I don’t get why you’re saying they’ve busted badly on ACE when they’ve done about the opposite.

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I strongly disagree about the Euro Weeklies. Although far from perfect (no model is close to perfect), the Weeklies correctly forecasted the active periods during summer followed by the very quiet late Aug-mid Sept. Then they forecasted correctly the big resurgence in late Sep weeks in advance! Furthermore, Isaac and TD 13 are already in existence. So, I don’t get why you’re saying they’ve busted badly on ACE when they’ve done about the opposite.

I remember people on twitter posting the weeklies just before the season started, showing a big season coming up

Edit: And if it was another model then I apologize but I do believe it was the weeklies just before the season began that was getting hyped

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I remember people posting the weeklies just before the season started, showing a big season coming up

 But those weren’t the Weeklies. Rather, those were the Euro seasonal forecasts, which did along with some other seasonal models predict extreme ACE and thus have busted terribly. Ironically though despite ACE only near average now, this season has had extremely high impact in the CONUS unfortunately!

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The fall into spring of 95-96 was the most perfectly balanced -EPO -WPO -NAO pattern we have experienced. It was still in a much colder climate back then before all the big marine heatwaves and global temperature increases. So the available Arctic air as displayed as in the record cold 93-94 pattern over North America was on par with some of the great Arctic outbreaks of the 1980s. That great Southwest Ridge near Baja was the icing on the cake for the snowiest season on Long Island to near 90”. Also notice that deep trough north of Hawaii which was effectively a near perfect +PDO atmospheric 500 signature even as it was a weak La Niña.
 

 

Despite the cold winters of 1993-94 & 1995-96, fun fact, at Detroit the 1990s remain the warmest winters decade so far (unsure is 2020s will surpass them since they are only half over). In any event 1995-96 was the classic, albeit rare, example of much less wintry climates having a much more wintry winter than here!