2024-2025 La Nina

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nice 594dm ridge off the coast of Japan.. I bet we will be seeing some Twitter posts on this one

What's interesting is that these super warm SSTA areas are preceding record 500mb conditions in the same area... We saw this over the Summer when the New Foundland warm pool got ridiculous.. then a week after that occurred, the Atlantic broke it's all time record for >600dm ridge right over that SSTA area. Now we have >10F anomalies off the coast of Japan, and weeks later, a record ridge is occurring right over the same area. 

Oct NAO is also starting to look negative on LR models, not coincidentally coinciding with +epo/-pna. 

Marine heatwaves, low arctic sea ice, etc. AGW at work….

[bluewave]

All we can say is that September 2024 is playing out in a roughly similar way to 2022. The 500 mb anomaly centers are in the same general locations. Strong Aleutian Ridge and Greenland Block. Plus a big September hurricane in the Gulf after a quiet August just like 2022. But that’s not to say that the rest of the pattern will play out in a similar way going forward. We will have to wait and see how the pattern progresses since there can always be new variability introduced which wasn’t present in a previous year with a similar pattern over the same time interval. 

 

 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All we can say is that September 2024 is playing out in a roughly similar way to 2022. The 500 mb anomaly centers are in the same general locations. Strong Aleutian Ridge and Greenland Block. Plus a big September hurricane in the Gulf after a quiet August just like 2022. But that’s not to say that the rest of the pattern will play out in a similar way going forward. We will have to wait and see how the pattern progresses since there can always be new variability introduced which wasn’t present in a previous year with a similar pattern over the same time interval. 

 

 

I guess maybe one difference is the Greenland block looks further north which would be good if it can stay that way and avoid combining with the SE ridge? I’m mentally prepared for another beyond awful “winter” coming but hopefully there can be at least one or two half decent periods like last season to put it one step above complete gutter. 

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I guess maybe one difference is the Greenland block looks further north which would be good if it can stay that way and avoid combining with the SE ridge? I’m mentally prepared for another beyond awful “winter” coming but hopefully there can be at least one or two half decent periods like last season to put it one step above complete gutter. 

It was a record September nearly +500 meter Greenland block but it’s still linking up with the Southeast Ridge.

 

 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was a stronger Greenland block but it’s still linking up with the Southeast Ridge.

 

 

Until there is a full scale AMO change, it’s probably not going to stop happening 

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Until there is a full scale AMO change, it’s probably not going to stop happening 

The Atlantic is back to all-time SST warmth after falling behind 2023  during the summer.

 

 

 

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

58 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I guess maybe one difference is the Greenland block looks further north which would be good if it can stay that way and avoid combining with the SE ridge? I’m mentally prepared for another beyond awful “winter” coming but hopefully there can be at least one or two half decent periods like last season to put it one step above complete gutter. 

I think this upcoming winter will play out somewhere between 2007-08 and 2020-21, rather than 2022-23. I never really liked 2022. That was a dissipating la nina, and we likely have a strengthening la nina (which we had 2007 and 2020). Plus, August/September 2022 was near record warm. This August/September has been close to average, and the coldest AS combo since 2013. FWIW, August 2007 and September 2020 were close to average temperature months.

My guess is that there will be a snow event during the first half of December (2007 had one early in the month and 2020 in the middle of the month), followed by a snow lull through the end of January, and February will be the snowiest month, but the last snow will be around February 22 (which coincidentally was the last snow date in both years).

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think this upcoming winter will play out somewhere between 2007-08 and 2020-21, rather than 2022-23. I never really liked 2022. That was a dissipating la nina, and we likely have a strengthening la nina (which we had 2007 and 2020). Plus, August/September 2022 was near record warm. This August/September has been close to average, and the coldest AS combo since 2013. FWIW, August 2007 and September 2020 were close to average temperature months.

My guess is that there will be a snow event during the first half of December (2007 had one early in the month and 2020 in the middle of the month), followed by a snow lull through the end of January, and February will be the snowiest month, but the last snow will be around February 22 (which coincidentally was the last snow date in both years).

I don’t like 2020 because of the solar minimum

[PhiEaglesfan712]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t like 2020 because of the solar minimum

Yeah, but then again, 2007 was also near a solar minimum. La nina forming during a solar maximum is very rare (1988-89 is probably the closest to one in the last 100 years). La ninas tend to form close to a solar minimum (1944, 1954, 1964, 1995, 2007, and 2020).

[jm1220]

47 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think this upcoming winter will play out somewhere between 2007-08 and 2020-21, rather than 2022-23. I never really liked 2022. That was a dissipating la nina, and we likely have a strengthening la nina (which we had 2007 and 2020). Plus, August/September 2022 was near record warm. This August/September has been close to average, and the coldest AS combo since 2013. FWIW, August 2007 and September 2020 were close to average temperature months.

My guess is that there will be a snow event during the first half of December (2007 had one early in the month and 2020 in the middle of the month), followed by a snow lull through the end of January, and February will be the snowiest month, but the last snow will be around February 22 (which coincidentally was the last snow date in both years).

I’m hoping for 2020-21 obviously, 07-08 was a dumpster fire for NYC filled with SWFEs that were plenty cold for I-90 but cold rain here. 08-09 would be better since that was about average snow. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think this upcoming winter will play out somewhere between 2007-08 and 2020-21, rather than 2022-23. I never really liked 2022. That was a dissipating la nina, and we likely have a strengthening la nina (which we had 2007 and 2020). Plus, August/September 2022 was near record warm. This August/September has been close to average, and the coldest AS combo since 2013. FWIW, August 2007 and September 2020 were close to average temperature months.

My guess is that there will be a snow event during the first half of December (2007 had one early in the month and 2020 in the middle of the month), followed by a snow lull through the end of January, and February will be the snowiest month, but the last snow will be around February 22 (which coincidentally was the last snow date in both years).

Another good one for me. Id take that blend in a heartbeat. Ive also noticed, I think @roardog brought it up too, but this September has been strikingly similar to September 2017 here. Dry, and unseasonable chilly the first third of the month followed by a long period of unseasonable warmth the remainder of the month.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I’m hoping for 2020-21 obviously, 07-08 was a dumpster fire for NYC filled with SWFEs that were plenty cold for I-90 but cold rain here. 08-09 would be better since that was about average snow. 

If it wasn’t for that February snowstorm, 07-08 would have easily been 97-98, 01-02, 11-12, 19-20 level bad for the NYC metro area 

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Atlantic is back to all-time SST warmth after falling behind 2023  during the summer.

 

 

 

 

 

All-time? Graph says it goes back to 1982 using a 1991-2000 average.

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

All-time? Graph says it goes back to 1982 using a 1991-2000 average.

While the graph starts in 1982, there were never SSTs approaching these levels prior to that year in our modern record.

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the graph starts in 1982, there were never SSTs approaching these levels prior to that year in our modern record.

 

 

 

Ok. Since 1940.

[donsutherland1]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the graph starts in 1982, there were never SSTs approaching these levels prior to that year in our modern record.

 

 

 

Yes. That shows up well on the larger timeframe (1850-2023) available at Copernicus:

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If it wasn’t for that February snowstorm, 07-08 would have easily been 97-98, 01-02, 11-12, 19-20 level bad for the NYC metro area 

You can say that about a lot of seasons though, where one decent storms makes a season.

[FPizz]

38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. That shows up well on the larger timeframe (1850-2023) available at Copernicus:

Who was measuring this from 1850 until the 1900s, or were these recreated?

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, FPizz said:

You can say that about a lot of seasons though, where one decent storms makes a season.

The February, 2008 storm wasn’t even that “big”, just over 6 inches for NYC, biggest storm of that winter at least

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The February, 2008 storm wasn’t even that “big”, just over 6 inches for NYC, biggest storm of that winter at least

meh ...it's just more subjectivity - even given that definition.   

i mean imagine a zone that averages 60" of snow per season.    now imagine a year whence that zone gets 0 snow, except for one 50" hoo-ha, a single event that has never happened in history - therefore by scalar acknowledgement, has to be the greatest storm ever, period.    

yet, that is a season that ends 10" below normal.   now imagine off all years, -10 is also the most snowless with the next year being -9 on the shit list. 

that doesn't make the that season saved in a numerical sense.  not even close.   but ... look out!  emotion saves the day and because the storm in fact triggered that greatest boner satisfaction ever, the winter is amazing!   haha

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. That shows up well on the larger timeframe (1850-2023) available at Copernicus:

And if you go back a few hundred years from that from around 1200AD-1850 you had the mini Ice Age. But that was after the Mediaeval Warm period from around 800AD-1400AD when Greenland was  being farmed by Vikings  was warmer and lush that the Vikings were planting crops, farming, etc., hence the name Greenland. Ocean temps were obviously warmer. So it waxes and wanes up and down. 

P.s. I meant to add, with that graph starting around 1850, we were at the end of the mini Ice Age. Obviously, the oceans would be at their coldest.

[michsnowfreak]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

meh ...it's just more subjectivity - even given that definition.   

i mean imagine a zone with an average 60" snow season.     that zone gets 0 snow, except for one 50" thing that has never happened in history - therefore by scalar acknowledgement, is the greatest storm ever, period.    in a season that end 10" below normal.   now imagine off all years, -10 is is the most snowless. 

that doesn't make the that season saved in a numerical sense.  not even close.   but ... look out!  emotion saves the day and because the storm in fact triggered that greatest boner satisfaction ever, the winter is amazing!   haha

Honestly though, I think that is realistic for a NYC type climate. Big storms can absolutely make or break a winter. That doesnt happen in the Great Lakes. NYC can go weeks and weeks without a flake then get a 2 foot storm. A friend of mine on Long Island has seen a 30" storm and also a winter where the grass tips werent covered once. Basically impossible here. In my 41 years on this earth so far, Detroit has not had a snowstorm over 17" or a season total under 23". Certainly, a storm can really stand out in a winter, especially when accompanied or immediately followed by brutal winds or brutal cold, but the duration of cold and snow depth/snowcover seems to be one of the main metrics for how severe a winter is. We have seen mild winters generally considered "easy" that finished with near or even above avg snow.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2015-16 is probably the closest thing to that. Record warm December by a wide margin, then one record-breaking snowstorm on January 22-23, and not much snow outside of that. The winter was bookended by a near record warm November and March.

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

meh ...it's just more subjectivity - even given that definition.   

i mean imagine a zone that averages 60" of snow per season.    now imagine a year whence that zone gets 0 snow, except for one 50" hoo-ha, a single event that has never happened in history - therefore by scalar acknowledgement, has to be the greatest storm ever, period.    

yet, that is a season that ends 10" below normal.   now imagine off all years, -10 is also the most snowless with the next year being -9 on the shit list. 

that doesn't make the that season saved in a numerical sense.  not even close.   but ... look out!  emotion saves the day and because the storm in fact triggered that greatest boner satisfaction ever, the winter is amazing!   haha

Sign...me...up. I will take that over the 14- 5" ers that get me above normal....I mean, you can milk your prostate to the mathamatics of climo....I'm good.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The February, 2008 storm wasn’t even that “big”, just over 6 inches for NYC, biggest storm of that winter at least

I get it, I had only 12.5" total here that season.  But many seasons one larger storm makes it so this area doesn't have a total dud.  

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Honestly though, I think that is realistic for a NYC type climate. Big storms can absolutely make or break a winter. That doesnt happen in the Great Lakes. NYC can go weeks and weeks without a flake then get a 2 foot storm. A friend of mine on Long Island has seen a 30" storm and also a winter where the grass tips werent covered once. Basically impossible here. In my 41 years on this earth so far, Detroit has not had a snowstorm over 17" or a season total under 23". Certainly, a storm can really stand out in a winter, especially when accompanied or immediately followed by brutal winds or brutal cold, but the duration of cold and snow depth/snowcover seems to be one of the main metrics for how severe a winter is. We have seen mild winters generally considered "easy" that finished with near or even above avg snow.

as an aside, this reminds me:    singular precipitation events that far exceed 'storm event climatology' have been becoming more frequent world over.  i think that's where you're going.   yup - that 30" otherwise nill type setting you describe is being observed.

it's empirically demonstrated that regions have been receiving as much as season's quota, or a significant fraction, all at once, ...before resuming extended dearths of anything significant.    if that locale were to have a run in with two of them, inside the same season, history at both seasonal scales but in house floating down landscapes turned riverine on drone videos.

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Who was measuring this from 1850 until the 1900s, or were these recreated?

Technical details can be found here:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018JD029867

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

And if you go back a few hundred years from that from around 1200AD-1850 you had the mini Ice Age. But that was after the Mediaeval Warm period from around 800AD-1400AD when Greenland was  being farmed by Vikings  was warmer and lush that the Vikings were planting crops, farming, etc., hence the name Greenland. Ocean temps were obviously warmer. So it waxes and wanes up and down. 

P.s. I meant to add, with that graph starting around 1850, we were at the end of the mini Ice Age. Obviously, the oceans would be at their coldest.

The initial reference was to the "modern period." Most datasets treat 1850-1900 as preindustrial for purposes of climate assessments. The chart only addresses that reference.

[Typhoon Tip]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sign...me...up. I will take that over the 14- 5" ers that get me above normal....I mean, you can milk your prostate to the mathamatics of climo....I'm good.

meh to each is his or her own. 

i like nickles with occasional dimes that add up in a pattern that's legit cold enough for pack power.  

failing that, yeah ... i see the allure of a giant event.  duh.   i see that allure at any time.  but i find 5 or 6 weeks of brown bare earth submerged under unpleasant temperatures, with barren weather chart cinemas, to be a storm of ennui that far exceeds any big event's capacity to inflict personal injury.  lol 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

meh to each is his or her own. 

i like nickles with occasional dimes that add up in a pattern that's legit cold enough for pack power.  

failing that, yeah ... i see the allure of a giant event.  duh.   i see that allure at any time.  but i find 5 or 6 weeks of brown bare earth submerged under unpleasant temperatures, with barren weather chart cinemas, to be a storm of ennui that far exceeds any big event's capacity to inflict personal injury.  lol 

Yea, I get it.