2024-2025 La Nina

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark People can kiss the east-based dreams goodbye….

Actually, you might be able to kiss this La Nina goodbye.. those are some weak subsurface anomalies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Actually, you might be able to kiss this La Nina goodbye.. those are some weak subsurface anomalies.

I don't agree. 

[donsutherland1]

39 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Actually, you might be able to kiss this La Nina goodbye.. those are some weak subsurface anomalies.

La Niña is on the cusp of developing. Region 3.4 anomalies have fallen to -0.5°C in the most recent weekly average. A weak La Niña and potentially borderline moderate one still seems on course during the latter part of the fall and during the winter.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The subsurface has been leading the surface +3-4 months for a while now. It started weaking a little over a month ago, and it seems the current trend is for it to moderate. 

The SOI never broke +4 for the La Nina event until recently. Even now the 30-day is only +3. Gawx has posted about how this factor is correlated to the surface. It also seems to be leading. 

The Fall is typically when ENSO events deepen, but I think in the Winter it may neutralize pretty quickly.  We might not get 5 months of <-0.5 ONI for an official La Nina, but it will be close. 

Glad to see donsutherland posting more in this thread. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

La Niña is on the cusp of developing. Region 3.4 anomalies have fallen to -0.5°C in the most recent weekly average. A weak La Niña and potentially borderline moderate one still seems on course during the latter part of the fall and during the winter.

Absolutely agree.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

It's crazy to see how disjointed the ONI, RONI, and MEI are right now. As recently as 2020-21, the 3 indices were in tandem. I wonder if the indices are going to start converging this year and all peak in the -1 to 1.2 or -1.2 to -1.4 moderate la nina range, or if we're going to get a year where the ONI that's barely a weak la nina or even a cold neutral, while the RONI is a moderate la nina, and the MEI is a strong la nina.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This looks more like a -PDO to me than La Nina

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html

In La Nina, you get more interaction with the North Pacific High (+NPH)

 

This is full on -PDO

North Pacific High area is further East

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This looks more like a -PDO to me than La Nina

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html

In La Nina, you get more interaction with the North Pacific High (+NPH)

 

This is full on -PDO

North Pacific High area is further East

The -PDO is only going to get stronger. The models are consistently developing an AK/GOA vortex. That is only going to upwell and cool the SSTs there. It’s a typical downstream progression from the big Bering Sea cooling we have been seeing

*To your other point about the subsurface waning, one thing is for certain, this right here in no way, shape or form resembles past east-based events

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The -PDO is only going to get stronger. The models are consistently developing an AK/GOA vortex. That is only going to upwell and cool the SSTs there. It’s a typical downstream progression from the big Bering Sea cooling we have been seeing

It does appear to still be in a strengthening phase. 

Over the last 30 years, the Oct PDO has done admirably for predicting the following Winter's conditions.. I'm not a believer in SSTs being the main cause, but its correlation scores are really high. A lot of the cold years saw cold in October (highly correlated to +PDO), and a lot of the warm years saw ridging in October.. we are I think #2 lowest PDO right now since 1950. 

Oct 2013 was nothing like the progression being shown in current LR models, which fits PDO events almost perfectly (2013 was an example of the PDO trending in a direction in the Fall vs already being in that state)- Cold Winter was already showing itself at this time in 2013. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It does appear to still be in a strengthening phase. 

Over the last 30 years, the Oct PDO has done admirably for predicting the following Winter's conditions.. I'm not a believer in SSTs being the main cause, but its correlation scores are really high. A lot of the cold years saw cold in October (highly correlated to +PDO), and a lot of the warm years saw ridging in October.. we are I think #2 lowest PDO right now since 1950. 

Oct 2013 was nothing like the progression being shown in current LR models, which fits PDO events almost perfectly (2013 was an example of the PDO trending in a direction in the Fall vs already being in that state)- Cold Winter was already showing itself at this time in 2013. 

What happened with the PDO in 2013 is what I see happening in 2025. We will start to moderate out and be in the -0.5 and -1.5 range.

2013 (2025) -1.10 -1.42 -1.48 -0.72 -0.40 -1.19 -1.34 -1.56 -1.00 -1.65 -1.09 -1.04

This will set the stage for a +PDO el nino in the 2026-28 timeframe.

2014 (2026) -0.57 -0.42  0.30  0.36  1.27 -0.28  0.25  0.34  0.76  1.43  1.35  1.86
2015 (2027)  1.51  1.52  1.33  0.90  0.32  0.82  1.41  0.98  0.97  0.84  0.17  0.29
2016 (2028)  0.75  1.29  1.56  1.74  1.60  0.87  0.57 -0.63 -0.80 -0.43  0.96  0.61

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It does appear to still be in a strengthening phase. 

Over the last 30 years, the Oct PDO has done admirably for predicting the following Winter's conditions.. I'm not a believer in SSTs being the main cause, but its correlation scores are really high. A lot of the cold years saw cold in October (highly correlated to +PDO), and a lot of the warm years saw ridging in October.. we are I think #2 lowest PDO right now since 1950. 

Oct 2013 was nothing like the progression being shown in current LR models, which fits PDO events almost perfectly (2013 was an example of the PDO trending in a direction in the Fall vs already being in that state)- Cold Winter was already showing itself at this time in 2013. 

Correct. If you compare September and the projected early October pattern, it looks nothing like 2013. It’s not even close

[PhiEaglesfan712]

43 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Correct. If you compare September and the projected early October pattern, it looks nothing like 2013. It’s not even close

Next year, we might be, though. Right now, we are still in the deep negative PDO phase like 2011 and 2012:

2011 -1.80 -1.46 -1.28 -1.02 -0.66 -1.08 -2.30 -2.37 -2.50 -1.92 -2.95 -2.40
2012 -1.85 -1.35 -1.66 -1.01 -2.12 -1.63 -2.40 -2.60 -2.99 -1.22 -0.66 -1.31

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This looks more like a -PDO to me than La Nina

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html

In La Nina, you get more interaction with the North Pacific High (+NPH)

 

This is full on -PDO

North Pacific High area is further East

Its a severely negative PDO and a modest La Nina in its incipient stages....they are mutually reinforcing to a degree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I understand why this is still a severely -PDO and will likely remain as such for winter given how much more prominent the west PAC warm pool is relative to the warmth off of California. However, I still thnk we may be in for some appericable stretches of +PNA this season....I would rather that than an icebath off of Cali.

 

This is the essence of how we need to view everything now given that the world has warmed so much. Back in the day, you could focus on a single node of warmth and glean a great deal with respect to the overall tenor of a season...but in our contemporary climate of competing marine heat waves, everything is relative and this sometimes leads our traditional teleconnections astray. If one were to view the Pacific basin through the lens of yesteryear, it would look more favorable with the warming near Cali just as El Nino did last year with the warmth being west.....but the west PAC was warmer than western ENSO zones and that was neglected at the forecaster's peril.

This greatly complicates the process of properly diagnosing El Nino events.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand why this is still a severely -PDO and will likely remain as such for winter given how much more prominent the west PAC warm pool is relative to the warmth off of California. However, I still thnk we may be in for some appericable stretches of +PNA this season....I would rather that than an icebath off of Cali.

 

This is the essence of how we need to view everything now given that the world has warmed so much. Back in the day, you could focus on a single node of warmth and glean a great deal with respect to the overall tenor of a season...but in our contemporary climate of competing marine heat waves, everything is relative and this sometimes leads our traditional teleconnections astray. If one were to view the Pacific basin through the lens of yesteryear, it would look more favorable with the warming near Cali just as El Nino did last year with the warmth being west.....but the west was warmer and that was neglected at the forecaster's peril.

This greatly complicates the process of properly diagnosing El Nino events.

In agreement on everything, although I think we see some deeply negative PNA at times. Also agree that we do see at least a weak Niña now with the IOD going negative and interfering with development in the next few months

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand why this is still a severely -PDO and will likely remain as such for winter given how much more prominent the west PAC warm pool is relative to the warmth off of California. However, I still thnk we may be in for some appericable stretches of +PNA this season....I would rather that than an icebath off of Cali.

 

This is the essence of how we need to view everything now given that the world has warmed so much. Back in the day, you could focus on a single node of warmth and glean a great deal with respect to the overall tenor of a season...but in our contemporary climate of competing marine heat waves, everything is relative and this sometimes leads our traditional teleconnections astray. If one were to view the Pacific basin through the lens of yesteryear, it would look more favorable with the warming near Cali just as El Nino did last year with the warmth being west.....but the west was warmer and that was neglected at the forecaster's peril.

This greatly complicates the process of properly diagnosing El Nino events.

fwiw   

pdo ( https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ )

Aug 2024	-2.88
Jul 2024	-2.99
Jun 2024	-3.16
May 2024	-2.99
Apr 2024	-2.12
Mar 2024	-1.52

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

In agreement on everything, although I think we see some deeply negative PNA at times. Also agree that we do see at least a weak Niña now with the IOD going negative and interfering with development in the next few months

Yes...probably when the NAO goes negative.

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes...probably when the NAO goes negative.

Sometimes twitter is good for laughs. Just saw the 83-84 “analog” dropped again. I mean I get the desire to predict December of ‘83 and all but lol Makes me wonder where some of these guys get this stuff. Besides -ENSO/+QBO, terrible. Solar? No match. AMO? No match. The funniest part is, this person said the PAC matches. A +PDO matches this year? Lol That year was also volcanic (El Chichon). I guess you can argue that we had the Ruang eruptions that reached the cumulative VEI 5 back in April but it definitely was not on the volcanic stratosphere level of El Cichon

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Sometimes twitter is good for laughs. Just saw the 83-84 “analog” dropped again. I mean I get the desire to predict December of ‘83 and all but lol Makes me wonder where some of these guys get this stuff. Besides -ENSO/+QBO, terrible. Solar? No match. AMO? No match. The funniest part is, this person said the PAC matches. A +PDO matches this year? Lol That year was also volcanic (El Chichon). I guess you can argue that we had the Ruang eruptions that reached the cumulative VEI 5 back in April but it definitely was not on the volcanic stratosphere level of El Cichon

the problem i have with a lot of this stuff is that the scalar verification over recent decade(s) have not matched leading indicators very well, anyway.

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Sometimes twitter is good for laughs. Just saw the 83-84 “analog” dropped again. I mean I get the desire to predict December of ‘83 and all but lol Makes me wonder where some of these guys get this stuff. Besides -ENSO/+QBO, terrible. Solar? No match. AMO? No match. The funniest part is, this person said the PAC matches. A +PDO matches this year? Lol That year was also volcanic (El Chichon). I guess you can argue that we had the Ruang eruptions that reached the cumulative VEI 5 back in April but it definitely was not on the volcanic stratosphere level of El Cichon

1983-84 was a weak nina, as this year is forecast to be. I don't see how it's such a stretch.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

1983-84 was a weak nina, as this year is forecast to be. I don't see how it's such a stretch.

That’s where the “match” ends. It’s a horrible match/analog IMO both PAC and Atlantic, we disagree then

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

1983-84 was a weak nina, as this year is forecast to be. I don't see how it's such a stretch.

Everything is opposite to what we have this year. That was a +PDO and -AMO year.

2007-08 and 2020-21, despite both being at a solar min, seem like the best matches to me. I'd give 07-08 the edge as the top analog because the hurricane activity of 2007 is even very similar to this year. 1998-99 and 2016-17 are other good matches.

[so_whats_happening]

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2024-25 la nina

RONI -1.2 to -1.4

MEI -1.5 to -1.7

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Everything is opposite to what we have this year. That was a +PDO and -AMO year.

2007-08 and 2020-21, despite both being at a solar min, seem like the best matches to me. I'd give 07-08 the edge as the top analog because the hurricane activity of 2007 is even very similar to this year. 1998-99 and 2016-17 are other good matches.

We see so many analogs thrown around. Most could probably have an argument made for or against them. Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting on another 2007-08.

[George001]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2024-25 la nina

RONI -1.2 to -1.4

MEI -1.5 to -1.7

ONI close to -1 (around -.9 peak) imo. I don’t buy the ENSO neutral projections, Nino 3.4 has been rapidly dropping in recent weeks and is already -.5 on the weeklies. The stronger projections for this Nina make sense given how things have developed lately.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Subsurface is neutralizing.. barely any -2's on todays map.  If the SOI keeps going like it has been, the La Nina will run out of fuel.. Last 30 days is a mere +2.3 on the SOI.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

fwiw   

pdo ( https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ )

Aug 2024	-2.88
Jul 2024	-2.99
Jun 2024	-3.16
May 2024	-2.99
Apr 2024	-2.12
Mar 2024	-1.52

Likely below -3 now, and the H5 pattern has been matching the historical data perfectly. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2024-25 la nina

RONI -1.2 to -1.4

MEI -1.5 to -1.7

The MEI has been matching the ENSO subsurface until now.. I wonder how big the MEI/PDO correlation is?  My guess is, because the N. Pacific pattern and enso variables don't react as strongly when the subsurface is neutral that it will bottom out pretty soon. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nice 594dm ridge off the coast of Japan.. I bet we will be seeing some Twitter posts on this one

What's interesting is that these super warm SSTA areas are preceding record 500mb conditions in the same area... We saw this over the Summer when the New Foundland warm pool got ridiculous.. then a week after that occurred, the Atlantic broke it's all time record for >600dm ridge right over that SSTA area. Now we have >10F anomalies off the coast of Japan, and weeks later, a record ridge is occurring right over the same area. 

Oct NAO is also starting to look negative on LR models, not coincidentally coinciding with +epo/-pna.