2024-2025 La Nina

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark People can kiss the east-based dreams goodbye….

Actually, you might be able to kiss this La Nina goodbye.. those are some weak subsurface anomalies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Actually, you might be able to kiss this La Nina goodbye.. those are some weak subsurface anomalies.

I don't agree. 

[donsutherland1]

39 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Actually, you might be able to kiss this La Nina goodbye.. those are some weak subsurface anomalies.

La Niña is on the cusp of developing. Region 3.4 anomalies have fallen to -0.5°C in the most recent weekly average. A weak La Niña and potentially borderline moderate one still seems on course during the latter part of the fall and during the winter.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The subsurface has been leading the surface +3-4 months for a while now. It started weaking a little over a month ago, and it seems the current trend is for it to moderate. 

The SOI never broke +4 for the La Nina event until recently. Even now the 30-day is only +3. Gawx has posted about how this factor is correlated to the surface. It also seems to be leading. 

The Fall is typically when ENSO events deepen, but I think in the Winter it may neutralize pretty quickly.  We might not get 5 months of <-0.5 ONI for an official La Nina, but it will be close. 

Glad to see donsutherland posting more in this thread. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

La Niña is on the cusp of developing. Region 3.4 anomalies have fallen to -0.5°C in the most recent weekly average. A weak La Niña and potentially borderline moderate one still seems on course during the latter part of the fall and during the winter.

Absolutely agree.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

It's crazy to see how disjointed the ONI, RONI, and MEI are right now. As recently as 2020-21, the 3 indices were in tandem. I wonder if the indices are going to start converging this year and all peak in the -1 to 1.2 or -1.2 to -1.4 moderate la nina range, or if we're going to get a year where the ONI that's barely a weak la nina or even a cold neutral, while the RONI is a moderate la nina, and the MEI is a strong la nina.