2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't understand dismissing a met because he has busted horribly in the past...if you are going to strictly adhere to that, then you aren't going to be left with anyone to follow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Agreed, he mentions everything so he's never wrong and when you question him, he blocks you.  Typical X met that's never had a real job

Yea, the obstinance is absolutey reprehensible (and repulsive)...that is a different matter altogether. 

[michsnowfreak]

30 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For example, the Great Lakes Region (Chicago to Toronto) might wind up milder than normal, but not excessively so, with normal to somewhat above normal snowfall.

Mentioned something similar yesterday, but this is exactly what I foresee for here. My "gut instincts" are not based on indices, rather on enso state and local climate history & how recent climate trends tend to affect this area.

~I suspect 1 month will end up colder than normal. 

~I almost certainly expect wild swings. That has been a Nina mainstay since records began, and certainly has remained true in recent years. Just to throw out a number for DTW, I can see DJF having a max of 65° and min of -12°. 

~I expect periods of excitement and frustration, with lots of busts (both good and bad).

~If the model consensus of above avg precip comes to fruition, you can bet the house that there will be some good winter storms in the lakes, and lots of events overall. Storm tracks and rain/snow lines especially will likely cause some weenie meltdowns for folks who will end up with an above avg snow season. (Fun fact...im mild mannered and rarely have meltdowns. Yet my biggest one ever was Jan 1, 2008 when I got insanely screwed. A winter that I finished with 78.2" of snow).

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't understand dismissing a met because he has busted horribly in the past...if you are going to strictly adhere to that, then you aren't going to be left with anyone to follow.

Who’s dismissing Webb? You’re probably not talking about me, but in case you are I take him with a grain due to several bad misses but I’m not dismissing him. If I did, I wouldn’t have quoted him to bring him into the discussion. Taking with a grain and dismissing are two different things (at least the way I define them). I assume you agree. I take many seasonal forecasts with a grain due to the difficulty in making winter forecasts, especially early.

[michsnowfreak]

Just curious. Are there any similarities to the 1949-50 nina? What strength was that? Very mild overall and it's not a winter I'd want to revisit, but has always fascinated me with its wild swings. Honestly not sure I've ever heard of another winter like that in terms of ups and downs. 

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Just curious. Are there any similarities to the 1949-50 nina? What strength was that? Very mild overall and it's not a winter I'd want to revisit, but has always fascinated me with its wild swings. Honestly not sure I've ever heard of another winter like that in terms of ups and downs. 

Moderate to low end strong as best as I can tell per DJF.

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today, the NAO fell to -1.900, which is very unusual for September. Since 1950, there have been three La Niña winters that followed such outcomes (1971-72, 2016-17, and 2022-23). All three favored a predominantly positive NAO during the winter. All three winters also favored warmer than normal winters in the eastern third to half of the CONUS. 2022-23 had solar activity that is most consistent with what is likely during the upcoming winter. Winter 2016-17 followed a strong El Niño winter, but the PDO was positive (very unlikely this time around).

The composite for the two most recent winters (selected because they fall in the contemporary climate regime):

For comparison, the latest C3S multi-model and CPC outlooks follow:

C3S:

CPC:

It's early, so the C3S, which did well last winter from this timeframe (but hasn't always fared as well, might be aggressive and overly expansive with the warmth. For example, the Great Lakes Region (Chicago to Toronto) might wind up milder than normal, but not excessively so, with normal to somewhat above normal snowfall. Overall, the latest NMME (9/8 0z initialization) has an outlook that closely resembles the anomaly patter (but not necessarily the values) shown on the C3S. The CFSv2 offers a sort of compromise between the CPC outlook and the C3S.

Great post, strong neg nao this time of year is very bad for winter

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today, the NAO fell to -1.900, which is very unusual for September. Since 1950, there have been three La Niña winters that followed such outcomes (1971-72, 2016-17, and 2022-23). All three favored a predominantly positive NAO during the winter. All three winters also favored warmer than normal winters in the eastern third to half of the CONUS. 2022-23 had solar activity that is most consistent with what is likely during the upcoming winter. Winter 2016-17 followed a strong El Niño winter, but the PDO was positive (very unlikely this time around).

The composite for the two most recent winters (selected because they fall in the contemporary climate regime):

...

For comparison, the latest C3S multi-model and CPC outlooks follow:

C3S:

...

CPC:

...

It's early, so the C3S, which did well last winter from this timeframe (but hasn't always fared as well, might be aggressive and overly expansive with the warmth. For example, the Great Lakes Region (Chicago to Toronto) might wind up milder than normal, but not excessively so, with normal to somewhat above normal snowfall. Overall, the latest NMME (9/8 0z initialization) has an outlook that closely resembles the anomaly patter (but not necessarily the values) shown on the C3S. The CFSv2 offers a sort of compromise between the CPC outlook and the C3S.

i was thinking about this yesterday as our saturday was being royally porked by this -nao circulation manifold ... (eastern ne) how these -nao's in autumn and spring have been notable in a lag of some 7 to 10 days, post warm anomalies that pervaded the great lakes/ov/ma/ne regions.    

this happened post those exotic warm ups that occurred in the februaries since 2015, where several of them recorded ... really quite absurdly warm temperature events ( rel to climo).    -nao's materialized afterward.  

when it was 80 to 87 for some 10 days recently from d.c. to pwm - its not the same anomaly, but it was impressive enough.  it's really more about the supporting pattern evolution

one striking example of this was october 2011, when during the teens of that month it was routinely in the 70s in the I-95 corridor with attending ridging --> -nao a week later... the snow event(s) late that october indirectly related.
 

[Typhoon Tip]

don't discount a repeat performance of snow, or snow supporting synoptic potentials along and n of 40 n/ e of chicago mid oct to mid nov  - having little or no correlative value to the ensuing winter, either.

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Great post, strong neg nao this time of year is very bad for winter

Blanket statements like that mean nothing. 

[mitchnick]

29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Blanket statements like that mean nothing. 

The only opposite correlation (as far as anybody in this thread has shown) to a + or - NAO winter to fall months is with October per Chuck's research.  However, even that opposite correlation is weak as discussed earlier in this thread. 

[michsnowfreak]

41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Blanket statements like that mean nothing. 

Especially when they come from a source only interested in warm trolling.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

18z GFS initialized the Greenland block at >5820dm. Looks like a +500dm anomaly. 

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today, the NAO fell to -1.900, which is very unusual for September. Since 1950, there have been three La Niña winters that followed such outcomes (1971-72, 2016-17, and 2022-23). All three favored a predominantly positive NAO during the winter. All three winters also favored warmer than normal winters in the eastern third to half of the CONUS. 2022-23 had solar activity that is most consistent with what is likely during the upcoming winter. Winter 2016-17 followed a strong El Niño winter, but the PDO was positive (very unlikely this time around).

The composite for the two most recent winters (selected because they fall in the contemporary climate regime):

For comparison, the latest C3S multi-model and CPC outlooks follow:

C3S:

CPC:

It's early, so the C3S, which did well last winter from this timeframe (but hasn't always fared as well, might be aggressive and overly expansive with the warmth. For example, the Great Lakes Region (Chicago to Toronto) might wind up milder than normal, but not excessively so, with normal to somewhat above normal snowfall. Overall, the latest NMME (9/8 0z initialization) has an outlook that closely resembles the anomaly patter (but not necessarily the values) shown on the C3S. The CFSv2 offers a sort of compromise between the CPC outlook and the C3S.

 Wow, Don, until you posted this I wasn’t even aware of the extreme Sep -NAO about to occur. According to the latest GEFS based NAO forecast (see below), it is expected to bottom out way down near -2.7 at some point during 9/23-5! That would easily exceed the record lowest Sep daily NAO as the current record low is -2.371, set on 9/12/1971. The only other Sep with any sub -2 daily was 1986. The record low for any month is -3.254, set on 10/21/2002.

 9/22/24 GEFS based NAO forecast:

[Met1985]

11 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Great post, strong neg nao this time of year is very bad for winter

I've seen so many so called correlations with the NAO and the AO it's stupid.  Not discounting Don but I do think we are in uncharted territory when it comes to patterns.  Honestly the west coast has been our pattern driver for the past several years and anything that will impead that will help us more. The NAO is a crapshoot anyways. 

[Met1985]

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Eric has done horribly the last 3 winters in a row. He also says he doubts it happens given the extratropical (very strong -PDO) synoptic picture:

 

 

 

-ENSO/-IOD very strongly favors Maritime Continent and eastern IO forcing. How many times are we going to forecast MJO 8, 1, 2 forcing only to have it fail? We tried this exact same thing last year and all we saw was MJO 4-6 all winter and that was during an El Niño no less

 

 

Hell we've had mets right here on AMWX do crappy the past few years but do you go shit on them? I'm not the biggest fan of Webb but this logic is near sighted to what can and does happen in trying to target any kind of seasonal pattern.... Just something you might want to think about before you post toward your bias...

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Hell we've had mets right here on AMWX do crappy the past few years but do you go shit on them? I'm not the biggest fan of Webb but this logic is near sighted to what can and does happen in trying to target any kind of seasonal pattern.... Just something you might want to think about before you post toward your bias...

Thanks for the advice. And “s*** on them”? Surely you can express your point without being vulgar and obscene. As for Eric Webb he is an extremely nasty, condescending, arrogant person who mocks and demeans other people and their opinions, so no, I don’t have any respect for him. Thanks again for the pointers

[snowman19]

This is the reason why it takes months to determine an actual peak in a solar max. Here comes a brand new large sunspot group/groups with flaring, high geomag activity and high radio flux:
 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Just curious. Are there any similarities to the 1949-50 nina? What strength was that? Very mild overall and it's not a winter I'd want to revisit, but has always fascinated me with its wild swings. Honestly not sure I've ever heard of another winter like that in terms of ups and downs. 

It was near the time of some of the lowest -PDO readings of the 1950s into 1970s -PDO years. It produced the strongest winter -WPO Aleutian Ridge and Southeast Ridge pattern of that era.

We just experienced the strongest -PDO summer since 1950. But the pattern progression was a little different back than compared to this year. That summer came after a La Niña winter and this summer followed a borderline super El Niño. So it’s very difficult to pick a very old winter analog and use it as a current analog for any coming winter. It’s just an example from the past what can happen when a very strong -PDO pattern aligns with a La Niña and the Aleutian Ridge becomes very amplified.

We have had numerous examples of very strong Aleutian Ridge patterns during La Ninas since 16-17. But that one produced the warmest January on record in Atlanta of +13. We recently had a very amplified Aleutian Ridge pattern in December 2021 produce a +13 in DFW. But a +13 against the much warmer 91-20 normals will be a higher actual temperature than 1911-1940 averages for the location where the Southeast Ridge is most amplified.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Just curious. Are there any similarities to the 1949-50 nina? What strength was that? Very mild overall and it's not a winter I'd want to revisit, but has always fascinated me with its wild swings. Honestly not sure I've ever heard of another winter like that in terms of ups and downs. 

What was similar was the strong -PDO. However, 1949-50 was the last la nina to form from a true ENSO neutral season, rather than from an el nino (unless you count 2019-20 as an ENSO neutral season rather than a disjointed el nino that started in late 2018, then it's 2020-21).

1949-50 was a late-blooming moderate la nina, and 1950-51 was a weak la nina that piggy backed off it. Both were among the least snowiest winters at PHL.  January 1950 was one of the warmest on record here, but that was followed by a long string of negative temperature departure months.

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is the reason why it takes months to determine an actual peak in a solar max. Here comes a brand new large sunspot group/groups with flaring, high geomag activity and high radio flux:
 

 

 

 

 

First tweet was prefaced with "potentially" and the second with "hopefully". Doesn't sound like any confidence to me. More X hype posts to say "I saw it first" IF it happens while keeping the ability to say "it was just a chance" if it fails.

There are going to be sunspots at this part of the cycle, so I  don't get these people aside from the need to post.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

What was similar was the strong -PDO. However, 1949-50 was the last la nina to form from a true ENSO neutral season, rather than from an el nino (unless you count 2019-20 as an ENSO neutral season rather than a disjointed el nino that started in late 2018, then it's 2020-21).

1949-50 was a late-blooming moderate la nina, and 1950-51 was a weak la nina that piggy backed off it. Both were among the least snowiest winters at PHL.  January 1950 was one of the warmest on record here, but that was followed by a long string of negative temperature departure months.

Detroit saw near avg snowfall both winters. 1949-50 saw 42.8" & 1950-51 saw 42.2". Whats interesting though is the 1940s-50s saw lower snowfall than the longterm avg, so both of those winters, while avg in the longterm, were slightly above avg for those decades.

1949-50 saw a warm Dec/Jan and cold Feb/Mar. Jan 25, 1950 holds as the warmest Jan temp on record (67F). But the ups and downs of the winter were insane, esp in Jan.

1950-51 was a more typical winter.

[donsutherland1]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Wow, Don, until you posted this I wasn’t even aware of the extreme Sep -NAO about to occur. According to the latest GEFS based NAO forecast (see below), it is expected to bottom out way down near -2.7 at some point during 9/23-5! That would easily exceed the record lowest Sep daily NAO as the current record low is -2.371, set on 9/12/1971. The only other Sep with any sub -2 daily was 1986. The record low for any month is -3.254, set on 10/21/2002.

 9/22/24 GEFS based NAO forecast:

Today's preliminary NAO value is -2.472, which would break the September record.

[GaWx]

 For the time being after a significant recent drop, SST anomalies seem to be in temporary bounce back mode.

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today's preliminary NAO value is -2.472, which would break the September record.

Thanks, Don. It will likely drop further tomorrow. The bottom should be tomorrow although a Wednesday bottom can’t be ruled out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just fiishing up an in depth update on La Nina and first glimpse at potential winter compisites...shoud publish tonight. My thoughts on La Nina have not changed at all. I never bought that La Nada fake out.

[snowman19]

In case anyone is following, we bottomed out on 9/11 and it has begun to rebuild. We finished at the 7th lowest arctic sea ice extent since 1979

[PhiEaglesfan712]

What would make my winter is if we got a snowstorm on Super Bowl Sunday (February 9, 2025) like we did during the winter of 20-21.

[FPizz]

6 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

What would make my winter is if we got a snowstorm on Super Bowl Sunday (February 9, 2025) like we did during the winter of 20-21.

That was pretty awesome.  I live in that little dot of pink in Somerset Co.  That month was my 2nd snowiest month of my lifetime with a 35.75"

[michsnowfreak]

20 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

What would make my winter is if we got a snowstorm on Super Bowl Sunday (February 9, 2025) like we did during the winter of 20-21.

My favorite snowstorm is the Superbowl Storm of 2015. Seems like the Superbowl gets later and later lol.