40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 CFS....now I know I have it wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: 1955-56 was a strong ONI la nina. Winter wasn't too cold (especially January and February), but November and December were cold, as were the spring months. 1956-57 was pretty much a weaker version la nina of 2022-23, a 3rd year la nina that dissipated early in the season. I'm not surprise the map was warm and resembled 2022-23. The big difference is that the subsurface was warm throughout. I'm pretty sure if this board was around that time, they'd be calling for an el nino in 1955-56 or 1956-57. Maybe we're heading into a 1954-57 pattern, where we get a multi-year la nina that reaches its peak intensity in Year 2, rather than Year 1. More like 1970s IMHO....obvuiously warmer, before I get beaten over the head with 2016-2024 composites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kazimirkai Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: CFS....now I know I have it wrong. What should I take away from data like this? Still somewhat new here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 7 minutes ago, kazimirkai said: What should I take away from data like this? Still somewhat new here Nothing much.....all I am saying is that the years I chose to make that JJA H5 composite, which matches JJA 2024 at H5 pretty well, is currently supported by some of the seasonal guidance when rolled forward into winter. Again, just a FWIW at this point and even if it worked out, it will need to be adjusted warmer today to account for climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kazimirkai Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 Is this guy legit or does he just cherry pick indices to feed enthusiasm? https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/3-signs-for-colder-winter-2024-2025-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 2 minutes ago, kazimirkai said: Is this guy legit or does he just cherry pick indices to feed enthusiasm? https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/3-signs-for-colder-winter-2024-2025-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ He looks legit, but after reading him for the past few years, he seems to always find a way to go cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He looks legit, but after reading him for the past few years, he seems to always find a way to go cold. Yes he does. He goes very cold and snowy and says it’s extremely favorable for -NAO/-AO, a weak SPV and SSWEs every year. Even said that back in 2015 with a raging super El Niño in place. He has zero credibility IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Yes he does. He goes very cold and snowy and says it’s extremely favorable for -NAO/-AO, a weak SPV and SSWEs every year. Even said that back in 2015 with a raging super El Niño in place. He has zero credibility IMO He is claiming this is going to be an east-base event, which it is not. Its going to be central-based. He is referencing the same research that I did back in 2022. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 Many of his westerly QBO years occurred near solar min, so his research isn't exhaustive enough. I will bet my left nut that this DM period does not average -NAO, however, nor do I think its wall-to-wall roofed positive as the Euro implies. I think we see one month that is appreciably negative. That said, we need the Pacific to cooperate or it won't matter for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: More like 1970s IMHO....obvuiously warmer, before I get beaten over the head with 2016-2024 composites. I would definitely take the 1970s over 1950s winters lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I would definitely take the 1970s over 1950s winters lol I think where we are now is a contemporary version of the mid 1970's in terms of multi decadal cycle juxtaposition....emerging from the severely cold PDO/potent el Nino of the early 70s and nearing the flip to cold phase AMO and warm phase PDO. This dovetails into the favorable stretch I expect near the turn of the decade, which would be a milder version of the 76-78 stretch near solar min. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 19 minutes ago, kazimirkai said: Is this guy legit or does he just cherry pick indices to feed enthusiasm? https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/3-signs-for-colder-winter-2024-2025-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ Quite honestly, many if not most online have biases of warm or cold. They definitely have knowledge, but look for ways to twist something warm or cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Quite honestly, many if not most online have biases of warm or cold. They definitely have knowledge, but look for ways to twist something warm or cold. And its easy to do given the abundance of data and dearth of sample size....case en point, making +QBO/La Nina look like an indicator for -NAO when you are neglecting solar cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think where we are now is a contemporary version of the mid 1970's in terms of multi decadal cycle juxtaposition....emerging from the severely cold PDO of the early 70s and nearing the flip to cold phase AMO and warm phase PDO. Hot damn! Bring on the late 1970s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 Just now, michsnowfreak said: Hot damn! Bring on the late 1970s. Amen...obviously don't expect @bluewaveto be icefishing in the Hudson, but cold relative to today's standards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 I will admit that you could make a case for east-based Nina until earlier this month, but its never looked likely to persist and is already rapidly changing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 Look out below! OISST just plunged 0.2 in 24 hours (because it’s playing catch-up) to -0.56 (weak La Niña territory) CRW: -0.55 CDAS: -1.00 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He looks legit, but after reading him for the past few years, he seems to always find a way to go cold. I read it and all I got out of it are that there are ways for me to get rid of belly fat, despite the war there are girls in the Ukraine that want to talk with me, and that I have several signs of ahlzeimers, the exact number I can't remember. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Amen...obviously don't expect @bluewaveto be icefishing in the Hudson, but cold relative to today's standards. To be honest, Id welcome a warmer version of the late 1970s with open arms. That could easily produce even better winters here than the 1970s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Hot damn! Bring on the late 1970s. 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Amen...obviously don't expect @bluewaveto be icefishing in the Hudson, but cold relative to today's standards. Thank goodness! As always …… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He is claiming this is going to be an east-base event, which it is not. It’s going to be central-based. He is referencing the same research that I did back in 2022. Yea, this is going to be a central based/CP Niña and we have clearly turned the corner with this event just in the last couple of days with a decided push starting. The chances for an official Niña as opposed to cold-neutral look way better now. The PMM turning negative with the rapid cooling off Baja, the very strongly negative PDO and the IOD turning negative only support this becoming a Niña further. I suspect there’s a drop in the MEI this month, unlike last winter where the PDO and PMM didn’t play ball and the MEI didn’t couple well, this one will have no problem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Yea, this is going to be a central based/CP Niña and we have clearly turned the corner with this event just in the last couple of days with a decided push starting. The chances for an official Niña as opposed to cold-neutral look way better now. The PMM turning negative with the rapid cooling off Baja, the very strongly negative PDO and the IOD turning negative only support this becoming a Niña further. I suspect there’s a drop in the MEI this month, unlike last winter where the PDO and PMM didn’t play ball and the MEI didn’t couple well, this one will have to problem probably going to end up as more of a hybrid event, but i agree that this doesn’t look canonically EP 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 5 hours ago, snowman19 said: Yea, this is going to be a central based/CP Niña and we have clearly turned the corner with this event just in the last couple of days with a decided push starting. The chances for an official Niña as opposed to cold-neutral look way better now. The PMM turning negative with the rapid cooling off Baja, the very strongly negative PDO and the IOD turning negative only support this becoming a Niña further. I suspect there’s a drop in the MEI this month, unlike last winter where the PDO and PMM didn’t play ball and the MEI didn’t couple well, this one will have no problem My stance on peak has always been in the in the upper portion of weak in terms of ONI and moderate in terms of RONI...which means the modoki structure will not be as important as it has the past couple of years given there is more variance with weaker events. But at the end of the day it will all go back to the extra tropicla Pacific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: probably going to end up as more of a hybrid event, but i agree that this doesn’t look canonically EP Yea, by central I mean hybrid, or mixed.....not modoki. Moral of the story is a moderate intensity hybrid event will come down to the exatra tropical Pacific and polar domain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: Yea, this is going to be a central based/CP Niña and we have clearly turned the corner with this event just in the last couple of days with a decided push starting. The chances for an official Niña as opposed to cold-neutral look way better now. The PMM turning negative with the rapid cooling off Baja, the very strongly negative PDO and the IOD turning negative only support this becoming a Niña further. I suspect there’s a drop in the MEI this month, unlike last winter where the PDO and PMM didn’t play ball and the MEI didn’t couple well, this one will have no problem If that's the case, then the MEI is going strong la nina in 2024-25. It would be the 3rd strong MEI la nina in 4 years. If the MEI is out of sync with the ONI and RONI in 2024-25, it would be the 4th straight season dating back to 2021-22. All had 2020-21 as a moderate la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 I am seeing some signs of a pretty significant +PNA/+NAO that may drive things in January, before the Aleutian ridge retrogrades and puts an end to the party for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 Give me +PNA/+NAO in November, and now we're talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 The September 500mb pattern so far is most similar to 2022. The 500 mb anomaly center locations are far are fairly close. But this time the Aleutian Ridge is stronger and the North Atlantic ridge east of Canada a little weaker. But its forecast to strengthen in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: The September 500mb pattern so far is most similar to 2022. The 500 mb anomaly center locations are far are fairly close. But this time the Aleutian Ridge is stronger and the North Atlantic ridge east of Canada a little weaker. But its forecast to strengthen in the coming days. With the inferno SSTs from the western Aleutians over to Japan that’s no surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: With the inferno SSTs from the western Aleutians over to Japan that’s no surprise It was the first time that the summer 500mb ridge was this strong from east of Japan to south of the Aleutians . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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