2024-2025 La Nina

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I never explicitly said that I felt like it would have changed anything post 2015, but I probably should have elaborated since I did use some strong verbiage. All I meant was exactly what I said......we may never see a below average season again using 1961-1990 climo.

As far as minimizing the warming trend....technically it does, but I feel as though the warming is tacit. Interesting you say that though because this is why I like to use the 1951-2010 clomo period when doing seasnal stuff to normalize that.

Yeah, using 61-90 climo  would be a challenge getting another cold winter in the Northeast if we don’t see some type of shift next 5 winters from last 9. The only parts of the U.S. to experience a cold winter relative 61-90 since 15-16 were the PAC NW and Upper Plains Rockies. As we have frequently seen the smaller geographic area Arctic Outbreaks focus in those areas.

[snowman19]

-PMM taking shape…..rapid cooling off Baja since the tail end of August 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

-PMM taking shape…..rapid cooling off Baja since the tail end of August 

I don't know what a PMM is, but I'm sure a -PMM must be bad for east coast winter weather.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would be careful about getting to wrapped up in the Modoki index this season because the intensity of La Nina all things considered will be moderate at best. Theoretically speaking, it could be superceded by other extra tropical factors.

[snowman19]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know what a PMM is, but I'm sure a -PMM must be bad for east coast winter weather.

Figured you’d accuse me of that, paranoia will destroy ya. No. 10-11 was -PMM. -PMM is most common during -ENSO. And it also correlates to a weak STJ

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Meridional_Mode

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Figured you’d accuse me of that, paranoia will destroy ya. No. 10-11 was -PMM. -PMM is most common during -ENSO. And it also correlates to a weak STJ

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Meridional_Mode

Goes along with the theme of a stronger cool ENSO than implied by ONI and a potent N stream.

[Yanksfan]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know what a PMM is, but I'm sure a -PMM must be bad for east coast winter weather.

Ya think???

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I think its silly to go by 1961-1990 baseline....no one would ever be below average. I won't be shocked if Canada is below by 1991-2020 climo.

1961-90 are the coldest (for winter) 30-year period dataset in many areas of the Great Lakes since records began. But I think bluewave missed my point. I only used Canada as an example.

I guess I should have been more blunt. Warm Fall/Cold Winter (Nina) and Cold Fall/Warm Winter (Nino) are a common combination in the north, so implying a September pattern of ANY kind as a sign for winter is imo ridiculous.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Using the 61-90 baseline doesn’t fundamentally change the big picture. Whether we use 81-10 or 61-90, 14-15 was the last winter with a cold departure in the Northeast. The rankings are always exactly the same. By 81-10 climo 14-15 was -4.1. It was still a cold winter using the 61-90 baseline at -2.0.

All 9 winters have NOT been warmer than avg in the midwest/upper midwest though.

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

All 9 winters have NOT been warmer than avg in the midwest/upper midwest though.

Your Upper Midwest region which includes Michigan has been running colder relative to the means than the Northeast since 15-16. The 21-22 winter finished -2.1 relative to the new 91-20 normals. The 18-19 season was -1.5 relative to 81-10 and 17-18 finished -1.6. But 23-24 was your warmest winter since 1895 at +9.2 relative to 91-20. 16-17 was your 9th warmest winter at +4.6 above 81-10 with 15-16 at +5.4 and 6th warmest.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/regional/time-series/102/tavg/3/2/1895-2024?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1991&endbaseyear=2020

[michsnowfreak]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Your Upper Midwest region which includes Michigan has been running colder relative to the means than the Northeast since 15-16. The 21-22 winter finished -2.1 relative to the new 91-20 normals. The 18-19 season was -1.5 relative to 81-10 and 17-18 finished -1.6. But 23-24 was your warmest winter since 1895 at +9.2 relative to 91-20. 16-17 was your 9th warmest winter at +4.6 above 81-10 with 15-16 at +5.4 and 6th warmest.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/regional/time-series/102/tavg/3/2/1895-2024?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1991&endbaseyear=2020

I know. Theres no mistaking going from basically the best winter period of record (2007-15) to a warmer regime since. But 17-18, 18-19, 20-21, 21-22 were definitely not "warm" winters here. Again though, dont look into it too much..I was merely referencing it in terms of the Sept to winter correlation, not in terms of analyzing specific anamolies. The NE has definitely ran warmer than their norms than here for whatever reason, not sure if the ocean plays a part or not.

Also want to clarify nothing is ever set in stone and there are easily examples that contradict this....but theres more than enough data to support the "trend" of early winter blasts teasing us in the Fall of what will be a sucky Nino winter, and also warm Indian summer breezes during Nina falls before the bottom drops out by December.

Obviously we are 2 different climates. Its always baffled me how you guys in much warmer, further south climes root on strong Ninos when that is 1000% the WORST winters (for winter lovers) we get here.

[GaWx]

 Below is a repost of that Ryan Maue graph posted earlier today. Note that the global MH freq is the sum of the prior 3 years as opposed to the 3 years centered on that date. If this had instead been the latter, it would have suggested a notable inverse relationship of global MH frequency and SSN. But it isn’t.
 

Calculations

1/86: MH 3 yr sum peak 71/SSN prior 3 yr avg 57

1/89: MH 3 yr sum dip 56/SSN prior 3 yr avg 64

9/94: MH 3 yr sum peak 92/SSN prior 3 yr avg 100

7/01: MH 3 yr sum dip 62/SSN prior 3 yr avg 148

3/07: MH 3 yr sum peak 87/SSN prior 3 yr avg 41

10/13: MH 3 yr sum dip 55/SSN prior 3 yr avg 81

9/16: MH 3 yr sum peak 94/SSN prior 3 yr avg 82

3/23: MH 3 yr sum dip 53/SSN prior 3 yr avg 51

 

Analysis

-Highest MH 3 yr sum peaks (94, 92) when prior 3 yr SSN avg not low (82, 100)

-Lowest MH 3 yr sum dips (53, 55) when prior 3 yr SSN avg not high (51, 81)

-So, two highest MH 3 yr sum peaks (avg 93) had avg prior 3 yr SSN avg up at 91 while two lowest MH 3 yr dips (avg 54) had avg prior 3 yr SSN down at 66.

 

Conclusion

 I can’t conclude that there’s even a very limited negative correlation of SSN and worldwide MH based on this data. The graph is deceiving (not necessarily intentional). Had this same graph been measuring 3 yr MH sums centered on each date instead of the 3 yrs prior, I would have concluded a decent negative correlation of MH count and SSN just from looking at this with no calculations needed. But it’s not. Those MH peaks/dips that you see are the sums of the 3 years prior. So, you can’t just look at those MH peaks/dips (blue) and go directly down to the SSN (red). You instead have to look at the avg of the reds for the 3 yrs prior to each MH peak/dip.

 

Monthly SSN: https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Below is a repost of that Ryan Maue graph posted earlier today. Note that the global MH freq is the sum of the prior 3 years as opposed to the 3 years centered on that date. If this had instead been the latter, it would have suggested a notable inverse relationship of global MH frequency and SSN. But it isn’t.
 

Calculations

1/86: MH 3 yr sum peak 71/SSN prior 3 yr avg 57

1/89: MH 3 yr sum dip 56/SSN prior 3 yr avg 64

9/94: MH 3 yr sum peak 92/SSN prior 3 yr avg 100

7/01: MH 3 yr sum dip 62/SSN prior 3 yr avg 148

3/07: MH 3 yr sum peak 87/SSN prior 3 yr avg 41

10/13: MH 3 yr sum dip 55/SSN prior 3 yr avg 81

9/16: MH 3 yr sum peak 94/SSN prior 3 yr avg 82

3/23: MH 3 yr sum dip 53/SSN prior 3 yr avg 51

 

Analysis

-Highest MH 3 yr sum peaks (94, 92) when prior 3 yr SSN avg not low (82, 100)

-Lowest MH 3 yr sum dips (53, 55) when prior 3 yr SSN avg not high (51, 81)

-So, two highest MH 3 yr sum peaks (avg 93) had avg prior 3 yr SSN avg up at 91 while two lowest MH 3 yr dips (avg 54) had avg prior 3 yr SSN down at 66.

 

Conclusion

 I can’t conclude that there’s even a very limited negative correlation of SSN and worldwide MH based on this data. The graph is deceiving (not necessarily intentional). Had this same graph been measuring 3 yr MH sums centered on each date instead of the 3 yrs prior, I would have concluded a decent negative correlation of MH count and SSN just from looking at this with no calculations needed. But it’s not. Those MH peaks/dips that you see are the sums of the 3 years prior. So, you can’t just look at those MH peaks/dips (blue) and go directly down to the SSN (red). You instead have to look at the avg of the reds for the 3 yrs prior to each MH peak/dip.

 

Monthly SSN: https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

I think most of us are pointing out the relationship between solar cycle and total ACE.

[GaWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think most of us our pointing out the relationship between solar cycle and total ACE.

 Yeah, I realize that we’ve all been looking at Atlantic ACE only and I still feel like you that there’s a notable negative correlation of that and SSN. This graph is based on worldwide MH count, obviously not at all the same as ATL ACE. If I get the time, I may due to curiosity look at just Atlantic MH to see if there appears to be a decent inverse correlation to SSN. One would think so but you never know.

 Regardless, the worldwide MH count apparently not negatively correlating to SSN admittedly makes me wonder why. Could there be something about the Atlantic that makes it more conducive to negatively correlating to SSN than other basins? If so, I wonder what that could be. Interesting to think about!

[jm1220]

29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I know. Theres no mistaking going from basically the best winter period of record (2007-15) to a warmer regime since. But 17-18, 18-19, 20-21, 21-22 were definitely not "warm" winters here. Again though, dont look into it too much..I was merely referencing it in terms of the Sept to winter correlation, not in terms of analyzing specific anamolies. The NE has definitely ran warmer than their norms than here for whatever reason, not sure if the ocean plays a part or not.

Also want to clarify nothing is ever set in stone and there are easily examples that contradict this....but theres more than enough data to support the "trend" of early winter blasts teasing us in the Fall of what will be a sucky Nino winter, and also warm Indian summer breezes during Nina falls before the bottom drops out by December.

Obviously we are 2 different climates. Its always baffled me how you guys in much warmer, further south climes root on strong Ninos when that is 1000% the WORST winters (for winter lovers) we get here.

Most of the time what’s good for you snow/cold wise is bad for us and vice versa. Nina/fast pacific jet regimes which are lousy here and putrid from Philly south are some of your best patterns while El Niño dominated STJ with some cold at the right time are our best. For New England some of the endless cutter events in Nina become SWFEs especially in a season like 07-08 and are perfectly fine or even very snowy before 15 minutes of rain at the end but here it’s rain with 15 minutes of sleet at the start. “Gradient” patterns 95% of the time set up north of me. So I would root on a Nino any day over Nina. Maybe the AMO settling down will help tamp down the SE ridge, but I agree we need large scale changes we’re not likely getting this winter to consistently get snow events again south of my latitude and this far east. That boiling warm water tongue of death E of Japan has to go away or be muted somehow. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Regarding el ninos, I think moderate el nino seems to be the sweet spot for cold/snow for most:

Strong el ninos tend to be hit or miss. In the mid-Atlantic, we have had snowy strong el nino years like 1957-58 and 2009-10, as well as duds like 2023-24.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I know. Theres no mistaking going from basically the best winter period of record (2007-15) to a warmer regime since. But 17-18, 18-19, 20-21, 21-22 were definitely not "warm" winters here. Again though, dont look into it too much..I was merely referencing it in terms of the Sept to winter correlation, not in terms of analyzing specific anamolies. The NE has definitely ran warmer than their norms than here for whatever reason, not sure if the ocean plays a part or not.

Also want to clarify nothing is ever set in stone and there are easily examples that contradict this....but theres more than enough data to support the "trend" of early winter blasts teasing us in the Fall of what will be a sucky Nino winter, and also warm Indian summer breezes during Nina falls before the bottom drops out by December.

Obviously we are 2 different climates. Its always baffled me how you guys in much warmer, further south climes root on strong Ninos when that is 1000% the WORST winters (for winter lovers) we get here.

Your area has been closer to the winter trough which has been focused over Western North America since 15-16 in the means.

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Pretty clear relationship between high solar/sunspots/geomag/radio flux and the Atlantic hurricane season:
 

 

 

 

 

One confounding factor is that the 3-year running means near the peak of solar activity all encompass notable El Nino events, except for the early 1980s peak (where the El Nino was offset by a couple of years). Perhaps unsurprisingly, the 1980s do not demonstrate the same degree of correlation. As the old maxim goes, correlation does not imply causation.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Regarding el ninos, I think moderate el nino seems to be the sweet spot for cold/snow for most:

Strong el ninos tend to be hit or miss. In the mid-Atlantic, we have had snowy strong el nino years like 1957-58 and 2009-10, as well as duds like 2023-24.

 

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Most of the time what’s good for you snow/cold wise is bad for us and vice versa. Nina/fast pacific jet regimes which are lousy here and putrid from Philly south are some of your best patterns while El Niño dominated STJ with some cold at the right time are our best. For New England some of the endless cutter events in Nina become SWFEs especially in a season like 07-08 and are perfectly fine or even very snowy before 15 minutes of rain at the end but here it’s rain with 15 minutes of sleet at the start. “Gradient” patterns 95% of the time set up north of me. So I would root on a Nino any day over Nina. Maybe the AMO settling down will help tamp down the SE ridge, but I agree we need large scale changes we’re not likely getting this winter to consistently get snow events again south of my latitude and this far east. That boiling warm water tongue of death E of Japan has to go away or be muted somehow. 

Regarding ninos...weak and moderate ninos, while hit and miss, can definitely give us some decent winters. It is the strong nino that is the absolute kiss of death. The predictability of "what kind of winter will it be" is definitely easier with strong nino than any other enso state. Of course we still get snow and cold snaps, but the end result is always going to come up on the below avg snow side. Most winters here are usually filled with many snow events so when the east coast gets slammed, of course I'm jealous but it's just like "oh well it's their turn". But I would have probably threw a fit in 1958 or 1983 lol.

[roardog]

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

Regarding ninos...weak and moderate ninos, while hit and miss, can definitely give us some decent winters. It is the strong nino that is the absolute kiss of death. The predictability of "what kind of winter will it be" is definitely easier with strong nino than any other enso state. Of course we still get snow and cold snaps, but the end result is always going to come up on the below avg snow side. Most winters here are usually filled with many snow events so when the east coast gets slammed, of course I'm jealous but it's just like "oh well it's their turn". But I would have probably threw a fit in 1958 or 1983 lol.

A “good” Nino around here can actually make for a long winter. When you get the early cold snaps in the Fall then keep that going right into Winter, it can make it feel like a long Winter. 2014-2015 almost had that except for the mild December but even that wasn’t an extreme torch. To the average person, I’m sure that felt like a long, cold Winter. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

One confounding factor is that the 3-year running means near the peak of solar activity all encompass notable El Nino events, except for the early 1980s peak (where the El Nino was offset by a couple of years). Perhaps unsurprisingly, the 1980s do not demonstrate the same degree of correlation. As the old maxim goes, correlation does not imply causation.

Keep in mind that this table has worldwide MHs rather than just Atlantic MHs. Thus El Niño years’ MHs have actually averaged higher than non-Nino MH due I assume mainly to the Pacific more than making up for the slowing in the Atlantic.

 For the period 1980-2023, worldwide MHs averaged 24. But that increased to 26 for just El Niño seasons.

 There have been 7 of these years with 30+ worldwide. Of those 7, 5 were Nino years with the super Nino of 2015 the highest at 39. The other 2 were neutral. So, no Niña years.

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=global

[mitchnick]

+NAO for October on the Cfs2, if true, bodes well for winter chances of a -NAO per Chuck's historical odds.

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

+NAO for October on the Cfs2, if true, bodes well for winter chances of a -NAO per Chuck's historical odds.

Taking this further, it has +NAO in Nov-Jan and a -NAO in Feb/Mar.

 I’m not familiar with Chuck’s work. But I did my own check: there have been 6 -NAOs since 1979-80. Here were the preceding Oct NAOs:

1984: -0.1

1986: +1.6

1995: +0.2

2009: -1.0

2010: -0.9

2020: -0.7

Average Oct NAO: -0.15/neutral with 3 -NAO and 1 +NAO

 This tells me there’s no correlation of Oct +NAO and winter -NAO based on the last 45 years.

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Taking this further, it has +NAO in Nov-Jan and a -NAO in Feb/Mar.

 I’m not familiar with Chuck’s work. But I did my own check: there have been 6 -NAOs since 1979-80. Here were the preceding Oct NAOs:

1984: -0.1

1986: +1.6

1995: +0.2

2009: -1.0

2010: -0.9

2020: -0.7

Average Oct NAO: -0.15/neutral with 3 -NAO and 1 +NAO

 This tells me there’s no correlation of Oct +NAO and winter -NAO based on the last 45 years.

He's explained the basis in the past. I know it's not a lock as nothing ever is. I'll let him post on his research when he sees this.

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

He's explained the basis in the past. I know it's not a lock as nothing ever is. I'll let him post on his research when he sees this.

But what do you think about the data I just showed, which is for the 6 -NAO winters of the last 45 years? It shows no correlation to a +NAO in Oct.

[mitchnick]

Just now, GaWx said:

But what do you think about the data I just showed, which is for the 6 -NAO winters of the last 45 years.

He discusses it here:

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

A “good” Nino around here can actually make for a long winter. When you get the early cold snaps in the Fall then keep that going right into Winter, it can make it feel like a long Winter. 2014-2015 almost had that except for the mild December but even that wasn’t an extreme torch. To the average person, I’m sure that felt like a long, cold Winter. 

Oh definitely. Even some warmer and/or strong nino winters are very long with unseasobable cold/snow very early and late sandwiching unseasonable warmth during actual winter. Since warm winters are still "cold", that translates to a long, cold gray time for those sun worshipping winter haters.

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

He discusses it here:

 

 I respect Chuck’s extensive leading indicator knowledge. However, he had to have figured this differently from me. My analysis of the last 45 years shows only 25-33% (depending on whether or not one throws out the two neutral Octs) changed sign:

1984: -0.1  neutral (but didn’t change sign if it’s counted) 

1986: +1.6 changed sign

1995: +0.2 neutral (did change sign if it’s counted)

2009: -1.0 didn’t change sign

2010: -0.9 didn’t change sign

2020: -0.7 didn’t change sign

- So, ignoring the two neutrals, only 1 of 4 (1986) changed sign

- If not ignoring two neutrals, still only 2 of 6 changed sign.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Taking this further, it has +NAO in Nov-Jan and a -NAO in Feb/Mar.

 I’m not familiar with Chuck’s work. But I did my own check: there have been 6 -NAOs since 1979-80. Here were the preceding Oct NAOs:

1984: -0.1

1986: +1.6

1995: +0.2

2009: -1.0

2010: -0.9

2020: -0.7

Average Oct NAO: -0.15/neutral with 3 -NAO and 1 +NAO

 This tells me there’s no correlation of Oct +NAO and winter -NAO based on the last 45 years.

Jan-Feb-March is where the heaviest correlation hits. But this based on the whole dataset, 1948-2023, 75 years, not just 6 years. You can research it for yourself on the CPC NAO data. I think we talked about this last year. 

I find it interesting, because no other month of the year has a <50% correlation, then all of a sudden October is 45%. When you have 76 years of data, that tells me the signal is at least mathematically neutral, not positive.. of course over like 200 years it may be closer to 50%. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I respect Chuck’s extensive leading indicator knowledge. However, he had to have figured this differently from me. My analysis of the last 45 years shows only 25-33% (depending on whether or not one throws out the two neutral Octs) changed sign:

1984: -0.1  neutral (but didn’t change sign if it’s counted) 

1986: +1.6 changed sign

1995: +0.2 neutral (did change sign if it’s counted)

2009: -1.0 didn’t change sign

2010: -0.9 didn’t change sign

2020: -0.7 didn’t change sign

- So, ignoring the two neutrals, only 1 of 4 (1986) changed sign

- If not ignoring two neutrals, still only 2 of 6 changed sign.

Use the whole dataset.. + and - events for JFM vs October. Try it out for amplitude >0.50 and >1.00 events in October. On this site below, it does the whole thing as a correlation composite for you. (Before I found out about that, I had calculated it manually in the past, and came up with the same results.)

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/

Dec is 50-51% 

The highest reverse correlation is March.

CPC NAO: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

What you will find is that both positive, and negative NAO phases reverse in JFM, and even if you do DJFM for the Winter as a whole